State of the Recruiting Class - 2024

[ACamp1900]

Because we're pretty much done with "big names" on the board. Maybe, maybe we get Scott.

We'll end up with more 3 stars. Not to mention our bigger commits will get a rankings drop by the end of the cycle.

A lot of big time 4 and 5 star guys haven't committed yet. When those schools get them kids (LSU, Tenn, USC, Clemson) they will pass us up. Happens every year.

I love Freeman. Love his message, but we're still in the same aisle as BK. The gap isn't closing. Sorry.

PS, Golden can hit the road

I get this,... but a fall from 3-4 to like 15???

 

[SoIll]

I get this,... but a fall from 3-4 to like 15???

We'll end up around 10-13

 

[pumpdog20]

Is there really that many elite kids left for approx 10 teams to pass us up though?

 

[notredomer23]

Because we're pretty much done with "big names" on the board. Maybe, maybe we get Scott.

We'll end up with more 3 stars. Not to mention our bigger commits will get a rankings drop by the end of the cycle.

A lot of big time 4 and 5 star guys haven't committed yet. When those schools get them kids (LSU, Tenn, USC, Clemson) they will pass us up. Happens every year.

I love Freeman. Love his message, but we're still in the same aisle as BK. The gap isn't closing. Sorry.

PS, Golden can hit the road

We’re in the same aisle for different reasons though… with BK, it was sometimes lack of effort bordering on indifference. In the case of Freeman, it’s because ND won’t play NIL with high schoolers. Curious to see if this changes with Bevacqua

 

[NDMatt91]

I get this,... but a fall from 3-4 to like 15???

If we only get Lambert we'd be at 263.45. Based on the last 5 classes (2019-2023) that would be about 12th on average.

 

[Blazers46]

I was big on the Freeman hire at the beginning but the shine is wearing off pretty quickly.

It’s the shine getting him this far in recruiting because he’s done nothing in regard to actual coaching.

 

[Terry Jillery]

The data tells the story.

A lot of the talking heads are focusing on Freeman’s composite score or blue chip ratio, but at the end of the day it’s about competing within that given year against the other teams in the nation, whether one particular year has more blue chip guys than the next or not.

From 2011-2022, Kelly had 6 classes finish within the top 10 nationally. 2013 #5, 2017 #10, 2018 #10, 2021 #9, 2022 #7. Even if you take 2022 away from BK (which I find absurd), some friends of mine have argued with me stating, “2022 is not BK’s class since it was technically signed under Freeman”, BK still had 5 top 10 classes. Also, 9 of those 12 classes finished between 260-284. Not exactly crappy numbers considering this year will likely be on the far low end of that.

Freeman’s first class in 2023 finished #12. Kelly’s classes from 2011-2022 averaged 11.9, with his highest finish at #5. His worst ever class was 2020 at #18. So, if you go by how BK did against the competition within the given years he recruited, he’s .1 higher than Freeman from 2023 at #12. Given the high likelihood we finish outside the top 12, I’d say Freeman’s average will get worse, widening the gap between he and BK.

I’m not arguing that Freeman isn’t more likable, appears to be a harder worker on the recruiting trail, is or isn’t a better recruiter, may or may not have success in both recruiting or on the field. I’m just looking at how BK did against the other top 10-15 college football teams in America within those given years, during the 12 classes he signed mentioned above. Even if one says Freeman is increasing said blue chip ratio, it appears to me that so is everyone else (considering Freeman’s average class ranking is worse than BK’s).

Just throwing out a different perspective since all I hear on IB is how Kelly sucked at recruiting, sucks as a human, and Freeman is far and away the better recruiter.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Because we're pretty much done with "big names" on the board. Maybe, maybe we get Scott.

We'll end up with more 3 stars. Not to mention our bigger commits will get a rankings drop by the end of the cycle.

A lot of big time 4 and 5 star guys haven't committed yet. When those schools get them kids (LSU, Tenn, USC, Clemson) they will pass us up. Happens every year.

I love Freeman. Love his message, but we're still in the same aisle as BK. The gap isn't closing. Sorry.

PS, Golden can hit the road

They're putting a much greater investment into scouting, trying to work harder at finding underrated guys.

I will agree with you that in the recruiting rankings sense they are not. However, if they really are making a difference on the scouting side that won't be readily visible yet.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Is there really that many elite kids left for approx 10 teams to pass us up though?

29 of the top 50 are uncommitted right now; 49 of the top 100.

 

[Blazers46]

They're putting a much greater investment into scouting, trying to work harder at finding underrated guys.

I will agree with you that in the recruiting rankings sense they are not. However, if they really are making a difference on the scouting side that won't be readily visible yet.

Are they? Or are they just resigned to the fate of NIL?

 

[Ndaccountant]

I think losing Laurinaitis was a bigger deal than met the eye. I also think this year is a down year for OL, where ND usually fluffs their rating. Combine the two and you get this result.

 

[calvegas04]

If we get a higher than 10th ranks class then MF better have a stellar season or that seat starts warming up

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Are they? Or are they just resigned to the fate of NIL?

Hey, I said "if."

It's possible that the rankings are suffering because the staff's internal view of prospects is different from the recruiting services'.

Mind you, I don't think ND could put together top 5 classes if only they wanted to.

 

[NDQuebec]

We'll end up around 10-13

At best.

 

[Rizzophil]

I think losing Laurinaitis was a bigger deal than met the eye. I also think this year is a down year for OL, where ND usually fluffs their rating. Combine the two and you get this result.

True but we were probably only going to keep him one more year anyway. He can’t be a GA after that.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

I think losing Laurinaitis was a bigger deal than met the eye. I also think this year is a down year for OL, where ND usually fluffs their rating. Combine the two and you get this result.

Maybe for recruiting
Coaching? His position group disappointed me in year 1

 

[PutuporShutup]

I get this,... but a fall from 3-4 to like 15???

we fell from 1 to 11 last year

 

[NDBoiler]

I think the Clemson model is the key in recruiting if you are ND. They are just not going to consistently get the top 5 classes like Bama, Georgia, OSU, etc. What you need to focus on is the solid top 10ish class with the big time QB and/or a big time skill position player or 2. That’s doable for ND IMO, and it seems to me that is what MF is trying to do as well. As a fan, it’s hard to not want the best in all areas, but that has proven itself to be the reality of the current college football world for ND, and gives the best chance for success.

 

[notredomer23]

At best.

No. Highly improbable to be worse than 13th without class implosion. Current class + Lambert gets them to 263.45. 2023 was a strange year for recruiting where 13th was higher than usual. From 2017-2022 see below:

	10th	11th	12th	13th
2017​	251.32​	251.23​	248.67​	248.58​
2018​	268.76​	265.45​	262.77​	260.22​
2019​	276.49​	272.96​	272.68​	270.32​
2020​	262.7​	261.3​	259.43​	259.38​
2021​	268.95​	267.15​	264.13​	262.15​
2022​	260.87​	258.65​	245.76​	243.37​
Average	264.848​	262.79​	258.907​	257.337​

 

[PutuporShutup]

I think the Clemson model is the key in recruiting if you are ND. They are just not going to consistently get the top 5 classes like Bama, Georgia, OSU, etc. What you need to focus on is the solid top 10ish class with the big time QB and/or a big time skill position player or 2. That’s doable for ND IMO, and it seems to me that is what MF is trying to do as well. As a fan, it’s hard to not want the best in all areas, but that has proven itself to be the reality of the current college football world for ND, and gives the best chance for success.

I get Bama and Georgia, but why can't we compete better with OSU. To me there it's completely coaching and getting studs in the NFL.

OSU doesn't have ND standards, but they aren't SEC either.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Maybe for recruiting
Coaching? His position group disappointed me in year 1

I was speaking of recruiting specifically

 

[KPENN]

This.... As many have said. You need insane talent everywhere to win the title if you don't have one of the best college QBs.

We have one of the best college QBs (not the best) this year for one year. We will have the best QB on the field for 11 of 12 games. That hasn't been the case in a long long time.

Not the best. Lo-fuckin-L

 

[notredomer23]

No. Highly improbable to be worse than 13th without class implosion. Current class + Lambert gets them to 263.45. 2023 was a strange year for recruiting where 13th was higher than usual. From 2017-2022 see below:

	10th	11th	12th	13th
2017​	251.32​	251.23​	248.67​	248.58​
2018​	268.76​	265.45​	262.77​	260.22​
2019​	276.49​	272.96​	272.68​	270.32​
2020​	262.7​	261.3​	259.43​	259.38​
2021​	268.95​	267.15​	264.13​	262.15​
2022​	260.87​	258.65​	245.76​	243.37​
Average	264.848​	262.79​	258.907​	257.337​

	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th
2017​	296.03​	292.88​	287.66​	270.79​	255.92​	251.32​	251.23​	248.67​	248.58​
2018​	289.94​	285.92​	283.67​	280.67​	276.62​	268.76​	265.45​	262.77​	260.22​
2019​	284.94​	280.74​	279.44​	278.08​	278.06​	276.49​	272.96​	272.68​	270.32​
2020​	294.92​	289.26​	275.87​	273.25​	273.1​	262.7​	261.3​	259.43​	259.38​
2021​	291.17​	287.67​	281.82​	280.49​	270.65​	268.95​	267.15​	264.13​	262.15​
2022​	289.04​	278.66​	275.44​	266.73​	262.13​	260.87​	258.65​	245.76​	243.37​
Average	291.007​	285.855​	280.65​	275.002​	269.413​	264.848​	262.79​	258.907​	257.337​

Expanded this chart to include 9-5 just to show where ND recruiting is essentially at since 2021- between 8th and 9th. Not a bad spot to be if they can get the right grad transfers and recruit QB at an elite level.

 

[stlnd01]

We’re not going to *only* get Lambert. He may be the only elite recruit we land but there will be a few other late takes. Always are.

To me the bigger question is if we have any flip risks in our current class? Haven’t seen signs of any of that yet but we lost a couple last year that dinged our overall ranking. (And I don’t mean Bowen).

 

[stlnd01]

And yeah I don’t really see the upside with Golden.
He made sense last year as a wise head to have on the staff but his actual defense was just OK and he’s meh as a recruiter. Unless the on-field play takes a leap this season I’d be fine with him moving on come December.

 

[Katzenboyer]

And yeah I don’t really see the upside with Golden.
He made sense last year as a wise head to have on the staff but his actual defense was just OK and he’s meh as a recruiter. Unless the on-field play takes a leap this season I’d be fine with him moving on come December.

He was the steady hand that Freeman needed in his first few seasons. But the guy's defense was pretty subpar last year (especially red zone %), and ND can and should do better.

 

[PutuporShutup]

Not the best. Lo-fuckin-L

He's not Caleb Williams

 

[PutuporShutup]

We’re not going to *only* get Lambert. He may be the only elite recruit we land but there will be a few other late takes. Always are.

To me the bigger question is if we have any flip risks in our current class? Haven’t seen signs of any of that yet but we lost a couple last year that dinged our overall ranking. (And I don’t mean Bowen).

Luckily our 2 best players seem all in and have been for awhile.......... we just don't have many elite players that top programs are really going after. We have maybe 5-6 players committed the big boys wanted.

 

[Irishdrunk]

I did check, and to no surprise, you are once again, incorrect.

View attachment 3053774

View attachment 3053775
ESPN had Watson as a 4-star, albeit their standards for 5-star status are quite stringent.

Watson was ranked higher on ESPN.

Carr is currently ranked higher than Watson per 247 and Rivals.

My point stands as originally stated.

WTF I thought I saw the 5 stars. But yea Watson was the top QB that year. CJ is an excellent QB but he will be ranked behind Dylan and Julian. Getting a 5th star will be tough.

 

[KPENN]

He's not Caleb Williams

I realize this, it’s the fact that you added it in.