Season Optimism

[CarrollVermin]

I have a colleague here at the university that I have become good friends with, mainly because of our passion for football. He is a researcher and usually objective about his approach to his allegiances. He asked me a question that I want your help in getting an answer. Our conversation in short was this…

I know you are excited about ND football next year, the projections are pretty high for the season. Even Meyer said you had “momentum” going into the offseason, but let’s look at the last 4 games of the season. You beat a Utah team that had been demoralized by TCU the week before. Now granted, they were ranked, so you get credit. You beat Army, no real credit for that one, and you beat a USC team without Barkley and who dropped a touchdown pass with under a minute to play. Then the bowl was an awful Miami team who spend too much time in Mexico instead of El Paso. You lost to one of the worst Michigan teams in history (that’s at least two consecutive losses), and you lost to Navy and Tulsa. What gives with the hopes for next season?

I had a response…but I pose the question to you. Again, he is not malicious, and he is a subway fan of the Irish, but realistic and puts things in perspective, so he is not a “hater”. Just want to gauge your opinion as well.

 

[IrishLax]

Don't give me that "dropped touchdown pass" bull****. The only TD they scored took them 4 plays from the 2 yard line. And the only reason their WR was in position to drop the ball was because OUR GUY FELL DOWN in the rain. So they rain caused two errors. And we were starting a true frosh 3* while they had a 5th year former 5*... whenever people try to qualify the USC win it cracks me up.

Michigan? No Crist for a half. We absolutely destroyed them with him in.
Michigan State? 11-1... and we played them extremely close. I won't get into the bad calls or anything else as that is more an "excuse" than a "reason."
Stanford? Got the crap kicked out of us.
Navy? Same deal. If there is one loss to point to as a reason to not be optimistic... this is it.
Tulsa? Enter Tommy Rees in "first" game.

So we had 5 losses... and probably should've only lost 2 *maybe* 3 games (Navy/Stanford/MSU). We're in year 2, return just about everyone that matters (with the exception of Gray and Brian Smith), our offense should be better and, most importantly, our defense went from really bad to "meh" to dominant over the second half of the season. From the second half of Tulsa through the third quarter where we went up 30-3 on Miami we only gave up one offensive touchdown. That touchdown? Took 4 plays from our 2 yard line by USC.

If we stay healthy and Carlo/someone else plays at the Brian Smith level alongside Te'o... watch out. That is the reason why people are ranking us in the top 25. And it's totally justified.

 

[mick2]

I don't care if we beat teams that are forced to play their 4th string tackle at qb, or what happened the week before to the team we're playing. a win is a win, and to go 4 straight with a freshman qb is pretty impressive i dont care who you're playing.

thats football folks, sometimes you get the elevator, and sometimes you get the shaft. but a W at the end of the day is all that matters. in ten years nobody will remember the losers or the circumstances, just the winners!

soooo, with that said, i think the expectations are high, but they always are, and when ND shows some semblance of being a decent team, everybody wants to sell mags, so they put us at 6 preseason. it starts discussion, it starts arguments, it moves the meter and thats what they want.

we have 4 question marks:
1.QB?
2.RB depth?
3.Mike Floyd playing or not?
4.Can Defense stay as strong as they were the last 4 games of the season?

4 answers
1. Kelly wins no matter who is QB, look at his previous coaching stops and the qbs hes had.
2. Cierre is a gamechanger, but i don't know who is behind him. worst case scenario move theo back there. real concern here.
3. Playing, he's still there, so hes playing
4. I think yes, D was stellar last 4 games, and there is still competition for starting spots! secondary still a little thin, but Dline and backers could be among best in country.

so while the expectations are high they are also warranted. We will be a very tough out for any team in the country.

 

[Rhode Irish]

I don't totally disagree with him. If the optimism is based entirely on last season it may be a bit overstated. Also, as exciting as the 2011 recruiting class is, it is probably wrong to expect a bunch of 18 year olds to make a significant difference for the 2011 Irish. I would be happy to see a handful of the first year players make some contribution; anything beyond that is a bonus.

Where my optimism comes from is a two-part thing. First, for next season, I give a lot of credence to the idea that the second year in the system will allow for big improvements on both sides of the ball. The key to the 4-0 run to end the season wasn't just the wins, but how we won. A switch seemed to have flipped on for the defense and they were nearly impenetrable against multiple types of offenses over that stretch. Most defensive starters return, and the usual progression of those players should help to make up for the loss of a couple starters. There are also high hopes for the new starters. I think most fans are expecting a very good defense. On the other side of the ball, we can say virtually the same thing: a lot of returning players, and high expectations for new starters. Add in another year for the QB's to learn and grow into BK's system, plus the prospect of getting a healthy year from a potential all-American veteran QB, I think the expectation is that ND will be a better offensive team in 2011 than it was in 2010.

Second, raised expectations for the Irish are as much for the future beyond 2011 as they are for this upcoming season. As ND continues to stockpile talent, especially on defense, with players hand-picked for the coaches' system and those players eventually become starters who were brought up in the systems, my expectation is that the program continues to improve over the next 4-5 years (and hopefully beyond).

My expectations are that this team will be better than 8-5 this year. How much better remains to be seen. Going forward I hope and expect that the record will continue to improve and ND will eventually reestablish itself among the CFB elite.

 

[BestBIrish47]

History is also on our side with 2nd Year Coaches coming off 8-5 seasons. (Auburn 2010 Bama 09- There are more.. just throwing two out there) 2nd year in the system, manageable schedule, if above question marks are answered double digit wins is not a stretch.

 

[irishtrain]

I can see most people saying Notre Dame is just #25 because of the past and thats an easy slotting because its still Notre Dame. I see this team now as turned the corner. It now will not ask guys to play above their heads or out of position to win games. The talent level in depth across the board and big people is getting as good as anyone in the country. Not this year ( 9-3/8-4) but next year this group will be excellant. I see wins and complaints about the schedule until as Kelly says they beat an SEC team. Trust me in the back of his head he knows to get where Ara/Lou had this program he has got to lay it on an SEC type team. Watch out if they go 9-3 and get to a showdown with an opponent like this and win the game. What follows will be something to behold.

 

[ACamp1900]

I agree more with your colleague than with the majority of this board, the last four games proved next to nothing in the context of losing to Tulsa, Michigan, and Navy in the same season....

my expectations are that this will be yet another reality check for this fan base... because until I see otherwise for an entire season from this program I am done convincing myself that something else will somehow happen.

sorry, I'm where Mark May was in 2005... show me.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I agree more with your colleague than with the majority of this board, the last four games proved next to nothing in the context of losing to Tulsa, Michigan, and Navy in the same season....

I disagree. Timing is everything. If the victories we're talking about were scattered throughout the season, then you'd have a point. But that's not what happened.

We reeled off four wins against quality opponents (aside from Army) to finish the season by playing rock solid defense. That hasn't happened since Lou left.

I'm not endorsing any Green Kool-Aid inspired predictions for 2011. I'll personally be pleased with 9-3 or better. But the optimism appears to be justified this time.

 

[ACamp1900]

agree to disagree then, this is a group that has played well on D for a total of four games........ period. No proven QB, paper thin at RB... if Crist goes down again I would NOT expect Rees to run off win after win again and if Wood goes down... well I don't even want to think about that...

in the big picture there are just as many if not more questions going into this season as any other recent season... only difference being they finished strong the year before... and even as an Irish homer who fully enjoyed every win... I completely understand the points made about each one by those who are considered 'haters'...

I'm not saying I can't see a BCS type season that ends well, I can... but I'm not expecting it... and won't until I see it happen.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I don't think we're actually disagreeing.

You feel that the BCS buzz isn't justified because of all the question marks that still surround the team. That's totally legitimate.

I feel like the general optimism surrounding the program is justified because there are signs of improvement that we haven't seen since the Holtz era.

That's all; I'm definitely not in the "BCS or Bust" camp.

 

[phork]

One word, defense.

 

[beryirish]

One word, defense.

^agree. All the other previous years of hype were legitimate towards the offense but the D is what kept them from being elite. Now ND has a legit Defense and that is the difference maker.

 

[IrishLax]

I disagree. Timing is everything. If the victories we're talking about were scattered throughout the season, then you'd have a point. But that's not what happened.

We reeled off four wins against quality opponents (aside from Army) to finish the season by playing rock solid defense. That hasn't happened since Lou left.

I'm not endorsing any Green Kool-Aid inspired predictions for 2011. I'll personally be pleased with 9-3 or better. But the optimism appears to be justified this time.

Smart man. You have a team learning to play in a new defense that finally started clicking. I'm not saying there's a guarantee we will be "dominant" but putting any kind of weight in the early season performances is simply ignorant of how many people we had playing out of position, learning new positions, etc.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

Timing certainly played a role in the final record last year. Had we played Navy after Army and "knew then what we know now" we would have stacked the box as we did in the Army game and would have had a different outcome there. Kelly learned in the Tulsa game that with a freshman QB that doesn't have a cannon for an arm, throwing into the wind for a winning touchdown is not the smartest move when you can trot a Groza award caliber kicker out to win it with a field goal. Michigan game would certainly have a different outcome if Crist gets hurt this year. We wouldn't be trotting out a freshman with zero experience and a walk on (I think Montana was a walk on) for his first throws. Any of our 3 back ups would have better results this year than what we saw last year. Michigan State comes down to a player falling down in OT, otherwise we win that game. Defense stepped up huge for the last third of the season, and I see no reason that trend doesn't continue. I will be shocked if ND doesn't win 9 games this year and 10 is certainly not a stretch IMO.

 

[chuckw]

New to the scene, but I think Kelly has turned the corner but still have a large amount of holes to fill. Solid season and another big name bowl win, then we can start talking big.
Beat Michigan and Mich. St. and we have a good chance to show we've turned the corner.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

New to the scene, but I think Kelly has turned the corner but still have a large amount of holes to fill. Solid season and another big name bowl win, then we can start talking big.
Beat Michigan and Mich. St. and we have a good chance to show we've turned the corner.

Exactly. Put up, or shut up. Start 3-1 or better, or enjoy another 7-5 season.....

 

[TDHeysus]

ND appeared to be better at the end of the season then at the beginning of the season. that shows progress, now lets see that progession continues. if they ended the season losing to navy and tulsa I would be more concerned. but they ended the year with good wins against some good teams; and it doesnt matter if those teams didnt have their starting QB, or wanted to party in mexico.

...and for now, you can just bottomline the conversation by saying "Lane Kiffin is 0-1 against ND."

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Trying to figure out what is going to happen this year, based upon what happened last year is pointless.

All you can use last year for is the following questions:
Did the available talent increase?
Did the players learn the system and the coach learn what he has with his players?
Did unforeseen acts change the possibilities for this year (injuries, recruits, transfers)?

All this arguing about things like the SC pass is bull crap. Anything else, and I will quote one of my new favorite authorities, Grandma Holtz:

“When you start paying a [college] athlete, that is absolute nonsense,” Holtz said. “ … Come here because you want to get an education, want to be part of our university and want to graduate. If you don’t, like my grandma used to say: ‘Pi$$ on you.’ ”

 

[Bogtrotter07]

One word, defense.

By the way, that was three.

I love you man.

Quotation marks around the word "defense" would help.

 

[mgriff]

I preached objectivity all through last year, and I don't have a problem with anything the OP's friend said. He's absolutely right. The only thing that will change anything is the performance of the team this season. You can debate either side of this particular argument, as there are plenty of examples for each.

 

[kmoose]

I think that the big argument comes from the fact that there are probably two different "hopeful" camps:

1) Those who are hopeful for a 9-3 or 10-2 season, and maybe a BCS bowl win (probably against one of the weaker BCS qualifiers).

2) Those who are hopeful for an 11-1 or 12-0 season, and a legitimate shot at the NC Game.

I think that the way last season went, there is plenty of reason to jump into group 1. However, you can't just discount the poorly played games, beginning of the season or not, so I didn't see enough to justify joining group 2, just yet.

 

[CarrollVermin]

I think that the big argument comes from the fact that there are probably two different "hopeful" camps:

1) Those who are hopeful for a 9-3 or 10-2 season, and maybe a BCS bowl win (probably against one of the weaker BCS qualifiers).

2) Those who are hopeful for an 11-1 or 12-0 season, and a legitimate shot at the NC Game.

I think that the way last season went, there is plenty of reason to jump into group 1. However, you can't just discount the poorly played games, beginning of the season or not, so I didn't see enough to justify joining group 2, just yet.

I would agree with this...and add that there is a camp that silently expects 7-5 or 8-4. People (read experts) keep talking about how "easy" the schedule is...which I don't see. Yes, we will be a tough out for teams, but we also have some tough outs ourselves. Michigan at night on the road with a new system and a "rejuvinated" defense will be tough, as will MSU which some experts regard as having the best skill positions in the Big Ten. Add Stanford, Navy, USC, a run and gun Pitt team, and an emerging USF team, and there are some road blocks.

Defense will be key. If we can get our young talent to emerge and play with consistency on that side of the ball, and stay healthy, good things can happen.

 

[eNDzone]

agree to disagree then, this is a group that has played well on D for a total of four games........ period.


Disagree. The D played fantastically the last four games. They played very well in every game after the Stanford game, except the Navy game. Look up the numbers. The D did not lose the Tulsa game. The O did.

The only thing I saw lacking in the D at the end of the year was a strong, consistent pass rush. I think the coaching staff has brought in some recruits to address this. It also sounds like they have bulked last year's D ends up also. Once they can get consistent pressure on the QB this D will be in lock down mode.

If your looking for reasons why they will be better.

1) No new coaches
2) More veteran players
3) Hopefully fewer injuries to key players (can't depend on this but it is going to be tough to do as badly as last year)
4) Coaching staff can work on players getting better instead of teaching the new systems
5) Depth at D and at QB (at QB compared to last year)
6) Kelly has turned me into an optimistic ND fan

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I think that the big argument comes from the fact that there are probably two different "hopeful" camps:

1) Those who are hopeful for a 9-3 or 10-2 season, and maybe a BCS bowl win (probably against one of the weaker BCS qualifiers).

2) Those who are hopeful for an 11-1 or 12-0 season, and a legitimate shot at the NC Game.

I think that the way last season went, there is plenty of reason to jump into group 1. However, you can't just discount the poorly played games, beginning of the season or not, so I didn't see enough to justify joining group 2, just yet.

That's the distinction I was trying to make.

I was arguing pro-camp 1. ACamp1900 was arguing anti-camp 2. Both are legitimate positions.

 

[Rhode Irish]

That's the distinction I was trying to make.

I was arguing pro-camp 1. ACamp1900 was arguing anti-camp 2. Both are legitimate positions.

I think almost all remotely rational fans would fall into camp 1. You're always going to have people like the Red Sox fans who thought Trot Nixon was headed for the hall of fame. There aren't many of them, but enough for some outsiders to get the impression that their views are more widespread than they really are.

 

[phork]

By the way, that was three.

I love you man.

Quotation marks around the word "defense" would help.

The comma denotes a pause for empahsis. The orginal question was asked in regard to why are things going to be different this year. I sure could have just put "defense", leaving the "one word" and comma for emphasis out of the equation. So to answer the initial query as to "Why is this year going to be any different?", the answer is "One word, defense." Therefore stipulating that there is only One Word which will make this year different. That word being defense. The answer wasn't "One word defense" meaning some kind of exotic defensive packaged called "One Word", it infers that the difference this year can be summed up to "defense".

PS: The Tulsa game was an aberration. Crist gets hurt, Rees comes in for clean up, Kelly goes for the TD instead of the FG with a cold QB under center. That game was a W until that play was called. I just about threw my dog through the TV. The Navy thumping was something else. But I think it was in that loss that the defense had enough of being trucked and holding this team back. I can guarantee you that you will not see Denard run for 300 yards, nor will Navy run it down our throats again.

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

The comma denotes a pause for empahsis. The orginal question was asked in regard to why are things going to be different this year. I sure could have just put "defense", leaving the "one word" and comma for emphasis out of the equation. So to answer the initial query as to "Why is this year going to be any different?", the answer is "One word, defense." Therefore stipulating that there is only One Word which will make this year different. That word being defense. The answer wasn't "One word defense" meaning some kind of exotic defensive packaged called "One Word", it infers that the difference this year can be summed up to "defense".

I see ya phork, get em! haha

 

[The Polish Irishman]

I just don't know. 9-4. Just don't know about qb. My main concern

 

[UPMich_NDfan]

Most people seem to be high on ND based upon Kelly/Diaco developing the "D." What I like tho is what ND is doing in both trenches. I really feel strongly about building strong lines on both sides of the ball, good things will happen. If you think about it- ND has really seemed to lack in these areas the last few seasons when they struggled. If you can protect/open holes on O, decent backs become great. If you can pressure from up front, average secondaries become great. I like what they are doing in these two areas.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

The comma denotes a pause for empahsis. The orginal question was asked in regard to why are things going to be different this year. I sure could have just put "defense", leaving the "one word" and comma for emphasis out of the equation. So to answer the initial query as to "Why is this year going to be any different?", the answer is "One word, defense." Therefore stipulating that there is only One Word which will make this year different. That word being defense. The answer wasn't "One word defense" meaning some kind of exotic defensive packaged called "One Word", it infers that the difference this year can be summed up to "defense".

Like I said, I love you man!

Where you been anyway?