This may be a minority position, but it seems that the security interests of
Didn't a couple of those anchors denounce what was happening and resigned on live tv? That must have been awkward.
So they annex Crimea and his popularity soars. 58% approved of the Ukraine war and only 23% opposed it. Kind of tells you the mindset of the Russian people.
The sanctions post-Crimea had virtually no effect on the Russian people or Putin. They absolutely, 100% have been conditioned over the years to favor Russian territorial expansion. They will absolutely view conquest -- militarily or otherwise -- as a positive. Most of them support war in Ukraine.
The body bags have to rise, the sanctions need more time, and the population needs time. If Putin keeps losing 10k plus soldiers a month while giving up territory and the economy keeps wobbling it'd still probably take months.
Just need to give the sanctions enough time that the shelves in the stores have nothing but baking soda and white vinegar. Support will wane.
While sanctions will have significant consequences, I am not sure it's going to be as negative as some may think. It will take time for additional trading partners to emerge, but there are many countries that are not imposing sanctions and can provide substitutes in time. Just look at the visual below to see all the other countries Russia can deal with. This doesn't mean the sanctions won't have an impact, but the longer this goes on, the greater the chance other countries develop increased trading relationships.
That map shows that virtually every developed, major economy -- except the BRIC block that already existed -- is imposing sanctions.While sanctions will have significant consequences, I am not sure it's going to be as negative as some may think. It will take time for additional trading partners to emerge, but there are many countries that are not imposing sanctions and can provide substitutes in time. Just look at the visual below to see all the other countries Russia can deal with. This doesn't mean the sanctions won't have an impact, but the longer this goes on, the greater the chance other countries develop increased trading relationships.
I take most of this at face value, especially this part:Impossible to think sanctions will not severely limit Russia.
It will be a little brother to China on the international scale,
and a Venezuela-type shrunken economy on the domestic scale.
Here is a real good read, by a Russian journalist who interviewed Russian elites:
“Now we're going to f*ck them all.” What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war
“Now we're going to f*ck them all.” What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war
Sanctions and propaganda have rallied even those who were against the invasion around Putinfaridaily.substack.com
“All these personal sanctions cement the elites. Everyone who was thinking about a new life understands that, for the next 10-15 years at least, their lives are concentrated in Russia, their children will study in Russia, their families will live in Russia. These people feel offended. They will not overthrow anyone, but will build their lives here," says a high-ranking source in one of the sanctioned state companies.
tldr -
Short-term: Lots of rah rah Russia
Mid to Long-term: Nowhere to go
Will be interesting to see how they (the Russian govt) handle things and how the Russian people handle things. Comes down to priorities I suppose and how long it goes on.
Do you have a source for this because I cant actually believe it.
CNN is reporting that the assault on Kyiv has abated. It doesn't mention withdrawing al the way to Belarus. Talks have resumed.
Liveuamap.com does a good job of real time updates. Essentially all that red in the highlighted area is gonna be repositioned to Donbas and Luhansk in the coming weeks I'd guess. Maybe more. Unclear what they will do in Kharkiv where Ukraine can now reposition too.
One wonders if an old sports buzzword is apropos:
You also have to wonder if Russia really wants troops in the east to hear from New comrades about getting shredded in Kiev. Ukraine's geography also lets them reposition to the south/east faster than Russia. So they can make a push with their Kievan defenders before the Russians reinforce East/South. Russia's best strategy now seems to be throwing bodies at the Donna's and hoping to overwhelm the Ukranians. That can't be great for morale either.
Same. Either way, still horrible what's been happening. I had read that Russia has conscripted another 130K. Curious if that's a signal of anything further (if true). Is that replacing losses or letting them free up more (apparently poorly) trained troops?
April 1 is conscription day, so this is normal for them. The new conscripts need quite a bit of training before they can be used. Their issue is the old conscripts are supposed to be able to cycle out soon and likely get retained through stop loss. They're also preferentially sending professional troops from other borders to the front and using conscripts to man those areas. The issue is they're to the point they either need to lean heavily on conscripts, reserves, or mercenaries. As this progresses the losses will get more and more politically painful as they shift to conscripts who officially aren't there (and who aren't great at fighting)
I did not know that. The more ya know..but...I figured they wouldn't just give kids guns and wish them good luck. Sorta figured that means they'd just use them for training and boring assignments in the calm areas of Russia.
I'm confused by your post. Do we respect captured enemy combatants or not?
Their real issue is that every new soldier they throw in is less good than the ones they lose and they don't have unlimited equipment. Russia really can't achieve much more strategically, but the nature of how information flows likely means Vlad won't figure that out for a few months when they're down to seeing if they have any walk ons who can fill bout the roster.
www.jpost.com
