The analysts say that this current recessionary threat and the concomitant rise in inflation are primarily engineered by Putin's attack on Ukraine which crippled Oil availability status quo and grain availability status quo. Most of the commentary goes like "If we weren't seeing these gasoline price rises we wouldn't even be having these conversations. Almost all of the rest of the economic indicators are OK."
Anyone rooting for a continuance of that pair of deficits is not reading the global economy very well. These are exterior fundamentals ("exterior" to what organizations like the Fed can impact.) If we want to resolve these issues, we need to solve the problem of filling the gaps left in the energy and food chains caused by this war, or somehow at least temporarily replacing these losses. To me that means crippling Putin's ability of creating chaos in Ukraine, and talking world oil producers to at least temporarily ramp up production to lower cost per barrel (which has doubled over the past year) or, as much as we can, release some Strategic Petroleum Reserves barrels to reduce costs --- something that can be done relatively quickly though even that is hampered by the poor state of repair of the SPR facilities and distribution system. We are already committed to releasing SPR oil to pay for those facility and distribution repairs, plus another forecast release for other infrastructure repair. There is some release still scheduled to help pay for debt in budget accrued by the previous administration as well, so both parties use this as a honey pot (so hopefully we can cut the political bullsh!t distraction a bit and focus on actual physical and economic solutions.)
So, my opinion which is that only of an informed reader of government and historical documents (and not TV watching) is that we (The USA) should release SPR oil as reasonable, put some pressure on oil providers both domestic and foreign for both added supply and less price gouging <--- there is NO doubt, looking at the relevant time and pricing curves that there is some of that (These priceings have jumped to record highs (Except for the End of GWBush cycle which was wildly out of control even beyond the Carter years.) And by doing so bring the gasoline costs back. Then we need to constrict Russian activity away from the growing grain areas of Ukraine, and let a growing season happen. AND we could use a lot of help from GCC to allow US grain-producers to have stable enough weather to even get all the planting and watering in. We have had TERRIBLE acreage-able-to-be-planted years. People who don't see the GCC connection to the food inflation are always ostriches. Because GCC and Oil=Modern-Tech-Economy-Life are at such diametric loggerheads, we need to suck it up and admit that by denying this so long we've put ourselves in a painted corner where getting out is going NOT to be without mess.
Ukraine is an unwelcome added unnecessary accident in all of this, and whatever we can do to stop its influence (especially on food) should be a global priority. One thing which might help a little would be to admit that this thing is so big and complex that it is beyond any one country (let alone any one President of any political stripe) to sally forth and sweep it away. It would help more if we could stop calling names when someone tries something rather than use every imagined whatever to arouse negative opinion. AND, impossible as it is given the assholes on both aisle sides, it would be REALLY great to see some actual attempt to get together on some strategies --- even bite-the-bullet ones --- to stabilize all of this (inc the GCC.)
... my bottom line on Ukraine: as long as they are committed to literally fighting to the Death, we supply them with LOADS of very high-tech weaponry to at a minimum bottle-up Russia to as narrow an area in east Ukraine as possible. We have these weapons now to give/ship. We have other weapons to replace them in the production pipeline already. We have funding mechanisms which work rather smoothly for things of War, so keeping the Kill Larder stacked is not an issue.
