Russia Invades Ukraine

[Rogue219]

Who to believe, yo.

 

[Irish#1]

Another one bites the dust.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Who to believe, yo.

Well the official USSR death count of Chernobyl is 31.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Weapons provided in package:
1. Bayraktar shoot-and-return drones
2. Switchblade (Kamakazi) drones
3. Stinger anti-aircraft missiles (800+600 already handed over.) These are man-carried.
4. Javelin anti-tank missiles (2000 of these) These are heat-seekers with thermal image guidance.
5. other less "sexy" stuff, and other "why should we tell you (and the Russians?") stuff.

Expenditures of non-declaration-of-war nature such as this are discretionary to the executive branch entirely, unless there is some direct "local" issue involved. It is the domain of the Executive to manage international affairs.

Objections by pundits and street corner commentators about not giving Ukraine the latest technology are naive as to big picture war strategy. We do not want to risk capture of latest tech. A similar thing just happened to the Russians when an electronic warfare unit of theirs was captured. This unit is going directly to NATO intelligence where the US will take it apart to reveal all secrets and vulnerabilities.

 

[IrishLax]

 

[IrishLax]

Russia is looking for exit ramps but is unlikely to take one that does not involve Ukraine ceding territory so that they can claim “victory.”

 

[BobbyMac]

Tom Nichols thread.

Best / most important post in the thread.

Someone inside Russia needs to take him out. Hopefully it’s 100k insurrectionists who REALLY know how to storm a capital, though a fed up general will do.

At this point, if Putin isn’t neutralized I expect him to go nuclear.

 

[irishog77]

Well the official USSR death count of Chernobyl is 31.

Seriously?? 35+ years later this is their tally?

 

[Irish4life]

Best / most important post in the thread.

Someone inside Russia needs to take him out. Hopefully it’s 100k insurrectionists who REALLY know how to storm a capital, though a fed up general will do.

At this point, if Putin isn’t neutralized I expect him to go nuclear.

Personally, I will continue to believe that will never happen until I see it happen. I fully believe the Kremlin is alluding to the threat of it because they don't want NATO to get involved in Ukraine.

 

[irishog77]

Who to believe, yo.

In a nutshell, this is precisely why many people tune out "reports" and deem many of them doubtful.

Even the good guys are just throwing out a number here- it may be ___...or 115% different than that number.

 

[NorthDakota]

Seriously?? 35+ years later this is their tally?

I suppose since the USSR collapsed a short time later, the USSR was not going to be updating an official USSR tally.

 

[Old Man Mike]

If he has enough of his mind left to assess consequences he will never "go nuclear."
Even a tactical nuke destroys not only residents at the drop location but makes a wide circle unusable for anything else, including whatever the hell he wants Ukrainian territory for. There is also the wind. Depositing his radioactive fallout to the east screws his Crimea properties/resource moving plans, and if wind goes as with Chernobyl, then it would be heading north to Belarus and Russia itself. Remember that Chernobyl was not an explosion in the bomb sense but a gas rupture propelled by heat and internal pressure. It still affected a LOT of territory. It is my not-so-well-informed opinion, but based on some earlier years comments I read, that if he orders use of the Russian arsenal in any way other than national survival, the generals will not follow.

The only miniscule scenario involving nukes would be a very small tactical nuke in Ukraine's center probably, to keep the radioactive cloud well away from NATO countries and his own eastern Ukraine designs. That's a VERY fine line to walk.

 

[calvegas04]

 

[NorthDakota]

If he has enough of his mind left to assess consequences he will never "go nuclear."
Even a tactical nuke destroys not only residents at the drop location but makes a wide circle unusable for anything else, including whatever the hell he wants Ukrainian territory for. There is also the wind. Depositing his radioactive fallout to the east screws his Crimea properties/resource moving plans, and if wind goes as with Chernobyl, then it would be heading north to Belarus and Russia itself. Remember that Chernobyl was not an explosion in the bomb sense but a gas rupture propelled by heat and internal pressure. It still affected a LOT of territory. It is my not-so-well-informed opinion, but based on some earlier years comments I read, that if he orders use of the Russian arsenal in any way other than national survival, the generals will not follow.

The only miniscule scenario involving nukes would be a very small tactical nuke in Ukraine's center probably, to keep the radioactive cloud well away from NATO countries and his own eastern Ukraine designs. That's a VERY fine line to walk.

My Old Man (not named Mike though) was a missile officer in the 80's and 90's. If Russia's nuclear deal is set up like ours, I think it only takes 1/3 missile officers to type in the code and turn the key to launch. So who knows.

I doubt things go nuclear unless the US/NATO decided to step in, which seems unlikely.

Hopefully the two parties can get together and make a deal. Lots of dead folks on both sides right now and that's very sad.

 

[calvegas04]

 

[calvegas04]

My Old Man (not named Mike though) was a missile officer in the 80's and 90's. If Russia's nuclear deal is set up like ours, I think it only takes 1/3 missile officers to type in the code and turn the key to launch. So who knows.

I doubt things go nuclear unless the US/NATO decided to step in, which seems unlikely.

Hopefully the two parties can get together and make a deal. Lots of dead folks on both sides right now and that's very sad.

Takes two people

Per US Air Force Instruction (AFI) 91-104, "the two-person concept" is designed to prevent accidental or malicious launch of nuclear weapons by a single individual.

 

[ab2cmiller]

 

[NorthDakota]

Takes two people

Per US Air Force Instruction (AFI) 91-104, "the two-person concept" is designed to prevent accidental or malicious launch of nuclear weapons by a single individual.

Yeah...I think there is 6 guys in the facility (maybe more) at any given time. Had they not moved the missiles out of ND I'd probably be in one now lol.

I think they are (mostly) in Wyoming and Montana now.

 

[drayer54]

Sometimes problems have a way of fixing themselves. Russian mutiny is something I wouldn't mind seeing more of.

... sad

 

[Irish#1]

Russia is looking for exit ramps but is unlikely to take one that does not involve Ukraine ceding territory so that they can claim “victory.”

They may not find any. Supply shortages, with them having to move back a little in certain areas, along with getting surrounded outside of Kyiv they're at best getting a standstill. If the additional support weapons arrive soon, Ukraine may start pushing them back from where they came.

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

I wonder if Putin is aware that him and the russian army are becoming a laughingstock?

 

[NorthDakota]

They may not find any. Supply shortages, with them having to move back a little in certain areas, along with getting surrounded outside of Kyiv they're at best getting a standstill. If the additional support weapons arrive soon, Ukraine may start pushing them back from where they came.

Ukraine is a country of 40 million people. Against a country with over 4x that. They can push back Russia on a temporary basis. But the math works out on way and one way only.

Ukraine's best hope is to either make a deal or for Russia to have an uprising. The concept of a legitimate military victory is scarce unless Russia is willing to tolerate losing... because if Russia truly wants to win... they will.

 

[drayer54]

Ukraine is a country of 40 million people. Against a country with over 4x that. They can push back Russia on a temporary basis. But the math works out on way and one way only.

Ukraine's best hope is to either make a deal or for Russia to have an uprising. The concept of a legitimate military victory is scarce unless Russia is willing to tolerate losing... because if Russia truly wants to win... they will.

Disagree. Ukraine doesn't need to sweep Moscow. Ukraine needs to kill enough Russians and prolong the war until Russians lose the appetite to support Putin or the war. Driving the forces out of the North is very possible, but will take time. Russia will surely dig in and secure their new land bridge in the South and demand territory ceded there. That's where things get dicey.

 

[NDLS_USMC]

Ukraine is a country of 40 million people. Against a country with over 4x that. They can push back Russia on a temporary basis. But the math works out on way and one way only.

Ukraine's best hope is to either make a deal or for Russia to have an uprising. The concept of a legitimate military victory is scarce unless Russia is willing to tolerate losing... because if Russia truly wants to win... they will.

Ho Chi Minh and the Taliban don’t keep score like you when it comes to fighting wars.

 

[NorthDakota]

Ho Chi Minh and the Taliban don’t keep score like you when it comes to fighting wars.

Very true. Has anyone in Europe ever given us a reason to think they'll wage that type of insurgency though? It's a continent of weak people. They are broke around the time my grandparents were born.

 

[BrownerandFry]

Weapons provided in package:
1. Bayraktar shoot-and-return drones
2. Switchblade (Kamakazi) drones
3. Stinger anti-aircraft missiles (800+600 already handed over.) These are man-carried.
4. Javelin anti-tank missiles (2000 of these) These are heat-seekers with thermal image guidance.
5. other less "sexy" stuff, and other "why should we tell you (and the Russians?") stuff.

Expenditures of non-declaration-of-war nature such as this are discretionary to the executive branch entirely, unless there is some direct "local" issue involved. It is the domain of the Executive to manage international affairs.

Objections by pundits and street corner commentators about not giving Ukraine the latest technology are naive as to big picture war strategy. We do not want to risk capture of latest tech. A similar thing just happened to the Russians when an electronic warfare unit of theirs was captured. This unit is going directly to NATO intelligence where the US will take it apart to reveal all secrets and vulnerabilities.

"pundits and street corner commentators?" Would you be SHOCKED (cue Casablanca) to find them here?

I would wager that the US, in a place and a budget that FOIA can not touch, instructed a bunch of Zelensky's Freedom fighters in guerrila, asymmetric and counter insurgency tactics well before the festivities started.

Soldiers fight
whiners whine
bitches bitch

Per omnia saecula saeculorum

 

[BrownerandFry]

Best / most important post in the thread.

Someone inside Russia needs to take him out. Hopefully it’s 100k insurrectionists who REALLY know how to storm a capital, though a fed up general will do.

At this point, if Putin isn’t neutralized I expect him to go nuclear.

No, my surmise is otherwise.

A weakened Putin, a spayed cat, is more likely to obsess with his internal enemies, naysayers and backbiters.

To the extent, as we, have, uh, seen in America before when the emasculated spayed cat starts mewing at his proximate enemies, he/she/it has less focus on external factors.

If the CIA could whisper in Vlad's ear they would start saying that some very powerful Russians and kleptocracts are talking shit about Vlad.

Like all megalomaniacs, he will obsess on those LOCALS who dared to question him.


Here we go:

• Grandiosity with expectations of superior treatment from other people
• Continually demeaning, bullying and belittling others
• Exploiting others to achieve personal gain
• Lack of empathy for the negative impact they have on the feelings, wishes, and needs of other people
• Fixation on fantasies of power, success, intelligence, attractiveness, etc.
• Self-perception of being unique, superior, and associated with high-status people and institutions
• Need for continual admiration from others
• Sense of entitlement to special treatment and to obedience from others
• Intense envy of others, and the belief that others are equally envious of them”

Zelensky and Biden already defecated on Putin. that is baked into the cake.

But it triggers more explosive megomaniacal synapses to have your alleged
bros
the people you thought you fully controlled

turn on you.

We need a good purge in the Kremilin

that will keep him busy.

 

[BrownerandFry]

The sanctions are working.

Nato is working

the EU is working

Russian Stocks Give Up Gains in Second Day of Limited Trading

Russian stocks fell on Friday, reversing most of the gains made in the previous session when the market reopened following a record long shutdown, while government measures to prevent a selloff helped limit the losses.

www.bloomberg.com

some highlights:

Gazprom down 12%

Trading limits are astounding.

Most of the activity is speculators and traders rather than investors

 

[BrownerandFry]

Let me
Sing to the world of Liberty
And shame the scum that sit on thrones.

FRom Ode to liberty by Alexander Pushkin. perhaps Russia's greatest poet

 

[drayer54]

Very true. Has anyone in Europe ever given us a reason to think they'll wage that type of insurgency though? It's a continent of weak people. They are broke around the time my grandparents were born.

Have you paid any attention to last month in Ukraine?