QB situation

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

I'm not saying he'd crush it, but there's really no way of knowing this till he's called plays for a team.

Yeah, then if he sucked (which I think is the more prevalent outcome) then we'd be stuck with him for 3-4 years cuz BK isn't pulling the plug until it's overly, abundantly clear that it's the wrong move.

 

[ND88]

Ian Book can't push the vertical routes, evidenced by his 348 INT's yesterday. He's just not good at it, if they're gonna start pushing the ball downfield then it would only make sense to bring in Phil.

But you gotta admit that it’s not like he has been throwing it all season like he did yesterday. I think they gave him the green light to make more mistakes just to get him passing more. I think he might be able to improve marginally if he can hone in his focus like he has shown in 2-minute drills. He’s a gamer when he’s not overthinking sh*t. I’m not saying he’s the best to do it, but I do believe his competitive nature is a strength and he shows leadership when it matters (minus Michigan). He needs to take more risks and get in the zone more often.

 

[irishff1014]

The only way i believe the offense gets better is if Quinn or Kelly take over the play calling. Other than that i just don't see things getting better.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I'm not saying he'd crush it, but there's really no way of knowing this till he's called plays for a team.

Not trying to be an asshat here, but there have been many people on the "we are lucky to have BK" train that use the defense of "it's too big of a risk" to go after someone not Saban / Meyer / Stoops etc.

For anyone who feels that way about BK, they should back the same logic for OC. You cannot have it both ways, it isn't intellectually honest. In fact, I would argue that Rees as OC would be far more RISKY than hiring someone like Campbell as head coach.

 

[loomis41973]

Not trying to be an asshat here, but there have been many people on the "we are lucky to have BK" train that use the defense of "it's too big of a risk" to go after someone not Saban / Meyer / Stoops etc.

For anyone who feels that way about BK, they should back the same logic for OC. You cannot have it both ways, it isn't intellectually honest. In fact, I would argue that Rees as OC would be far more RISKY than hiring someone like Campbell as head coach.

X10000

 

[Irish#1]

He ran Wimbush out of town ostensibly because he couldn't run the offense Long wanted to run. And now you have Book, who also can't run the offense Long wants to run for entirely different reasons. Maybe the problem is the offense you're trying to run? For example, if Ian Book isn't capable of sitting in the pocket and always wants to roll to his right... maybe run some plays that roll him out? Have we seen a single bootleg or designed rollout this entire year? If you know your player has limitations, why isn't there a two-way discussion about his 10 favorite plays or more input from the player if you're not willing to make a change?

I don't know shit about football, but I do coach and I've known lots of coaches like Long. They do the same thing over and over again and when it isn't working they point the finger somewhere else. They tend to do "less with more" because they can't get over their egos. And if ego isn't the case, then it's a matter of intelligence that he can't see that what he's doing doesn't work and he needs to change it. Either way, he should already be out on his ass, and if ND loses any of the remaining four games I put it on Kelly for not canning him or taking away his duties.

I don't think it's "Book isn't capable of running the offense". Book's issue IMO has been more confidence in himself with the additional pressure coming into this year. Saturday he did a much better job of staying in the pocket and going deep. The results weren't the best, but that goes back more to his arm strength. Rolling out essentially cuts off half of the field, but I would run a roll out a few times, to keep the D off balance.

I'm hoping that last drive is the break through for Book. He had to make some throws rather than playing it safe.

As far as Long, it's time to go and I wouldn't mind if BK let him go today. If the dislike is true, then I would expect the O to step up big time after his release.

 

[ickythump1225]

Nobody has said It better! Beautiful.

LOL x2

 

[NorthDakota]

I don't think it's "Book isn't capable of running the offense". Book's issue IMO has been more confidence in himself with the additional pressure coming into this year. Saturday he did a much better job of staying in the pocket and going deep. The results weren't the best, but that goes back more to his arm strength. Rolling out essentially cuts off half of the field, but I would run a roll out a few times, to keep the D off balance.

I'm hoping that last drive is the break through for Book. He had to make some throws rather than playing it safe.

As far as Long, it's time to go and I wouldn't mind if BK let him go today. If the dislike is true, then I would expect the O to step up big time after his release.

Easy to look better while playing against mediocre competition. He has struggled in a bad way when he plays against teams who have players out there.

 

[ulukinatme]

Not trying to be an asshat here, but there have been many people on the "we are lucky to have BK" train that use the defense of "it's too big of a risk" to go after someone not Saban / Meyer / Stoops etc.

For anyone who feels that way about BK, they should back the same logic for OC. You cannot have it both ways, it isn't intellectually honest. In fact, I would argue that Rees as OC would be far more RISKY than hiring someone like Campbell as head coach.

I'm not saying I want him as the playcaller, I'm just saying there's no evidence he wouldn't be successful as an OC. I certainly wouldn't want ND to be his first job, but people are saying he would tank with no prior history to say otherwise. I would want him to go to a Miami OH or someplace and call plays first, then come back possibly if that worked out.

It's not a risk to go after Saban, Meyer, or Stoops because it's worse than a risk, it's an impossible scenario. With the very outside chance of Stoops (He's going to take a job with a football factory first), the others simply aren't going to come to ND. There's little for them to gain, and a lot of legacy to tarnish when they can get just about any job they want with fewer restrictions and expectations.

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

I'm not saying I want him as the playcaller, I'm just saying there's no evidence he wouldn't be successful as an OC. I certainly wouldn't want ND to be his first job, but people are saying he would tank with no prior history to say otherwise. I would want him to go to a Miami OH or someplace and call plays first, then come back possibly if that worked out.

It's not a risk to go after Saban, Meyer, or Stoops because it's worse than a risk, it's an impossible scenario. With the very outside chance of Stoops (He's going to take a job with a football factory first), the others simply aren't going to come to ND. There's little for them to gain, and a lot of legacy to tarnish when they can get just about any job they want with fewer restrictions and expectations.

Idk why a coach wouldn't want to be the guy that resurrected (see what I did there) the ND program back to championship status? I'm confident UM could do that, but I'm also fairly confident that he isn't coming. Idk that a guy like Stoops is any better than BK honestly, if they're gonna go get someone then I'd rather it be a definitive upgrade.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Idk why a coach wouldn't want to be the guy that resurrected (see what I did there) the ND program back to championship status? I'm confident UM could do that, but I'm also fairly confident that he isn't coming. Idk that a guy like Stoops is any better than BK honestly, if they're gonna go get someone then I'd rather it be a definitive upgrade.

Probably because they can further cement their legacy by winning again somewhere else without the inherent struggles and obstacles to get it done here.

Path of least resistance. Not everyone wants to climb Everest. There are plenty of other challenging peaks out there.

 

[greyhammer90]

Not trying to be an asshat here, but there have been many people on the "we are lucky to have BK" train that use the defense of "it's too big of a risk" to go after someone not Saban / Meyer / Stoops etc.

For anyone who feels that way about BK, they should back the same logic for OC. You cannot have it both ways, it isn't intellectually honest. In fact, I would argue that Rees as OC would be far more RISKY than hiring someone like Campbell as head coach.

It's not hypocritical at all because the risk profiles are totally different.

First, Long is not as good of an OC as BK is a HC, so finding a OC better than Long is likely to be way easier. That's fairly obvious even if you dislike BK. We don't even need the replacement to be "elite" to have experienced a step up, just "great" will do. There's also just way more "great" OCs than there are "elite" HCs out there. It's much more likely that we will hire a great OC than hire Urban or the next Dabo Sweeney.

Second, there's a big difference in hiring/firing head coaches than hiring/firing OCs in terms of money and potential negative effect. Hiring a HC means committing financially to him for at least five years. You can kick an coordinator to the curb if he doesn't work out in two years without feeling too much financial hurt. Even at their most expensive, a coordinator is much, much less of a financial albatross than a bad HC. Finally, a bad head coaching hire can literally set the program back decades. That's not true for coordinators. VanGorder was a total nightmare hire and was about as bad as it can get, but we're close to not seeing the effects of his terrible coaching/recruiting in less than five years.

For all these reasons, I'm way more inclined to take a shot at a new OC over Long. We know that Long's performance is below average. We know that there are better OCs out there to be poached. We know that even if the new OC doesn't do well, he can't do much worse, and we can get rid of him easily in the near future.

It definitely shouldn't be Rees though.

 

[ulukinatme]

Idk why a coach wouldn't want to be the guy that resurrected (see what I did there) the ND program back to championship status? I'm confident UM could do that, but I'm also fairly confident that he isn't coming. Idk that a guy like Stoops is any better than BK honestly, if they're gonna go get someone then I'd rather it be a definitive upgrade.

It's very hard to win at ND, as we've seen from our 3 previous coaching failures. It's much easier to win at another program, especially when you're an established good coach that can go wherever you want. When you fail at ND, maybe you get lucky like Weis and get another job at a crummier school right away, maybe you end up like Bob Davie and have to sit in a booth for a long time before a crummy program comes along. Either way, your chances of landing a big time gig after failing are all but gone. That's a lot of risk.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

It's not hypocritical at all because the risk profiles are totally different.

Yup. Fire Long and promote Quinn. He and BK can flip a coin to decide who calls plays.

 

[Irish#1]

I think Book needs to throw some interceptions in exchange for taking more risks and just not giving a fu*k ... If people are already casting him out, which he has to know, he needs to shake off the fear of failing and just play to win and not to lose. He has guts. He just needs to exhibit that confidence in his throws. He’s gonna make some mistakes. So what. Sling the ball, man.

You got your wish! lol

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

It's not hypocritical at all because the risk profiles are totally different.

First, Long is not as good of an OC as BK is a HC, so finding a OC better than Long is likely to be way easier. That's fairly obvious even if you dislike BK. We don't even need the replacement to be "elite" to have experienced a step up, just "great" will do. There's also just way more "great" OCs than there are "elite" HCs out there. It's much more likely that we will hire a great OC than hire Urban or the next Dabo Sweeney.

Second, there's a big difference in hiring/firing head coaches than hiring/firing OCs in terms of money and potential negative effect. Hiring a HC means committing financially to him for at least five years. You can kick an coordinator to the curb if he doesn't work out in two years without feeling too much financial hurt. Even at their most expensive, a coordinator is much, much less of a financial albatross than a bad HC. Finally, a bad head coaching hire can literally set the program back decades. That's not true for coordinators. VanGorder was a total nightmare hire and was about as bad as it can get, but we're close to not seeing the effects of his terrible coaching/recruiting in less than five years.

For all these reasons, I'm way more inclined to take a shot at a new OC over Long. We know that Long's performance is below average. We know that there are better OCs out there to be poached. We know that even if the new OC doesn't do well, he can't do much worse, and we can get rid of him easily in the near future.

It definitely shouldn't be Rees though.

Also, BK taking over parts of the offense is a bit of a safety net for the worst case scenario OC hires.

Anyway, by SP+ Chip's offenses have been

19th
33rd
37th (so far)

That 37th ranking would be worse than it ever was when BK was at the controls and had Molnar, Martin, and Sanford. So I'm not sure what a bad OC hire actually costs ND in offensive effectiveness.

EDIT: I agree that forcing BK to step away from offensive duties has benefitted the team overall and I want them to make a good hire that allows him to keep his distance. I'm just saying from a "worst case scenario" standpoint.

 

[ACamp1900]

Not trying to be an asshat here, but...

Don't hide from it,... Know thyself.

 

[Ndaccountant]

It's very hard to win at ND, as we've seen from our 3 previous coaching failures. It's much easier to win at another program, especially when you're an established good coach that can go wherever you want. When you fail at ND, maybe you get lucky like Weis and get another job at a crummier school right away, maybe you end up like Bob Davie and have to sit in a booth for a long time before a crummy program comes along. Either way, your chances of landing a big time gig after failing are all but gone. That's a lot of risk.

The three previous coaches were poor hires, not good hires that turned out poorly. There is stark difference.

 

[Ndaccountant]

It's not hypocritical at all because the risk profiles are totally different.

First, Long is not as good of an OC as BK is a HC, so finding a OC better than Long is likely to be way easier. That's fairly obvious even if you dislike BK. We don't even need the replacement to be "elite" to have experienced a step up, just "great" will do. There's also just way more "great" OCs than there are "elite" HCs out there. It's much more likely that we will hire a great OC than hire Urban or the next Dabo Sweeney.

Second, there's a big difference in hiring/firing head coaches than hiring/firing OCs in terms of money and potential negative effect. Hiring a HC means committing financially to him for at least five years. You can kick an coordinator to the curb if he doesn't work out in two years without feeling too much financial hurt. Even at their most expensive, a coordinator is much, much less of a financial albatross than a bad HC. Finally, a bad head coaching hire can literally set the program back decades. That's not true for coordinators. VanGorder was a total nightmare hire and was about as bad as it can get, but we're close to not seeing the effects of his terrible coaching/recruiting in less than five years.

For all these reasons, I'm way more inclined to take a shot at a new OC over Long. We know that Long's performance is below average. We know that there are better OCs out there to be poached. We know that even if the new OC doesn't do well, he can't do much worse, and we can get rid of him easily in the near future.

It definitely shouldn't be Rees though.

I should have been more clear, I typed in haste.

The risk I refer to is risk to hitting the goal of a NC.

At this point in time, we know the following to be true about BK....

1) For all the rich overtones of being an offense guru, his offenses while at ND have been underwhelming. Really, only the 2015 team is one that you can point to and say was a great offense. Not sure how much of it was Sanford versus BK.

2) We know what a bad coordinator hire can do to ND under BK's watch. See: BVG.

3) Tommy Rees has no documented experience prior to ND beyond being a GA at NW and an "offensive assistant" for the Chargers for one year. Tommy's "offense" is almost assuredly what ever he has picked up from Long and BK.

4) BK's system is so successful, that his coaching tree has produced the ripest fruits for all of the G5 and lower P5 teams to pluck. I mean, who isn't pounding the doors down for Chuck Martin, Bob Diaco, Jeff Quinn, Charley Molnar etc. Butch Jones is probably the most successful and he might be able to coax himself Rutgers.

With all that said, hiring Tommy is akin to prolonging the same failures that have plagued ND since BK's arrival. Sure, you could pull the plug in a year or two if it doesn't work. But this is a path we have already been down and BK's cronies that he brings to South Bend have a poor track record. His best hires (Lea, Sanford, Harry, etc) have come from outside his tree.

That's not to say that bringing in a random HC would be better. But again, if your goal is to win a NC, a HC that has proven himself on a big stage would be a less risky move towards a NC. In all honesty, it probably would fair. Them the odds. But the odds of success are, IMO, higher than if we go down the BK coaching tree path.

I'll put it this way....if someone believes that BK is an OC away from greatness, we need to hire an OC that is completely independent of BK's coaching tree. Tommy Rees is the farthest thing from that.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Don't hide from it,... Know thyself.

 

[ulukinatme]

The three previous coaches were poor hires, not good hires that turned out poorly. There is stark difference.

I never said they weren't, that has nothing to do with my point. An established, good coach is not coming to South Bend. Why take on the challenges of ND and possibly damage your career when you can go to a program like USC with a much easier path to success? My comment was in response to a statement that essentially read "A coach will come here so he can be the one to resurrect ND to championship status." That notion is silly. If people would take the green colored glasses off they'd realize Urban, Saban, and Dabo are not coming here. Obviously Saban and Dabo have far better gigs at their current jobs, and they're making more money. Meyer basically has his pick of any program that's willing to take on his risk, and football factories like USC would have first pecking order. Why would Urban come to South Bend when he can go to USC where the recruits basically come to you, the weather is fantastic, the academics are less important, and players aren't suspended above and beyond what the NCAA calls for? There is very little benefit for an established good coach to come here in comparison. Nobody is going to take on the challenges of ND for glory, not when it means risking their career.

Our next coaching hire, whoever that may be, will likely be a relative unknown with some recent success. We were rather lucky to get Kelly when we did, a coach who has an impressive record at his previous stops and is or was considered one of the better active coaches. The next coach will have less wins under his belt. By all accounts, even today, I think most people would say Kelly has been a decent hire. He's been the best coach since Lou, and he's at least gotten us back to the big stage a few times. If Kelly doesn't retire, I think there probably is a good possibility he does wind up at a decent program who hopes he can repeat his Cincinnati success. Kelly is kind of the exception to the rule though. If he didn't have that long history of previous success and he flames out at ND, he's at Kansas just like Weis was.

 

[BabyIrish]

Driskell has been slamming Book the past two weeks. He’s full on the PJ train.

 

[ColinKSU]

I generally like Pete Sampson, but his obvious crush on Book is sort of confusing. On the II podcast today, he tried to absolve him of all blame for his play, and Prister had to finally just bluntly ask him if it’s not his fault when he overthrows Kmet twice in the endzone or not.

Pete usually goes with the “he has no offensive skill talent whatsoever!” defense, not counting the two first round NFL talents he can throw to.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I never said they weren't, that has nothing to do with my point. An established, good coach is not coming to South Bend. Why take on the challenges of ND and possibly damage your career when you can go to a program like USC with a much easier path to success? My comment was in response to a statement that essentially read "A coach will come here so he can be the one to resurrect ND to championship status." That notion is silly. If people would take the green colored glasses off they'd realize Urban, Saban, and Dabo are not coming here. Obviously Saban and Dabo have far better gigs at their current jobs, and they're making more money. Meyer basically has his pick of any program that's willing to take on his risk, and football factories like USC would have first pecking order. Why would Urban come to South Bend when he can go to USC where the recruits basically come to you, the weather is fantastic, the academics are less important, and players aren't suspended above and beyond what the NCAA calls for? There is very little benefit for an established good coach to come here in comparison. Nobody is going to take on the challenges of ND for glory, not when it means risking their career.

Our next coaching hire, whoever that may be, will likely be a relative unknown with some recent success. We were rather lucky to get Kelly when we did, a coach who has an impressive record at his previous stops and is or was considered one of the better active coaches. The next coach will have less wins under his belt. By all accounts, even today, I think most people would say Kelly has been a decent hire. He's been the best coach since Lou, and he's at least gotten us back to the big stage a few times. If Kelly doesn't retire, I think there probably is a good possibility he does wind up at a decent program who hopes he can repeat his Cincinnati success. Kelly is kind of the exception to the rule though. If he didn't have that long history of previous success and he flames out at ND, he's at Kansas just like Weis was.

Lot's to digest here.

Let me ask you this....what is your definition of "an established, good coach". I agree with you on the Saban, Dabo, etc commentary. Coaches that have a really good job today will not take on the ND job UNLESS there is some previous connection to the university that is overwhelmingly positive. For example, if John Harbaugh was having a really shitty year, he may look at ND favorably given his family situation. Not saying that is likely, just that a connection like that could tip the scales if a coach is currently out of a job or wants out of a job. But you are right, ND will not "hire away" a coach from a top program.

But, I would consider other coaches that have done a fine a job at other P5 programs certainly as fair game. Matt Campbell has done a terrific job at ISU and would be a top someone that I would say mirrors BK's situation when he was hired. I would consider coaches like Matt Campell as an established, good coach. I agree with you though, I would not replace BK at this point for just anyone.

I agree with you though, I would not replace BK at this point for just anyone.

As to your other point about coaches landing elsewhere.....Can you tell me when a coach at any top program was fired and landed somewhere nice?

Recent example that come to my mind off the top of my head are:

Les Miles - Kansas
Mack Brown - UNC after a long hiatus
Charlie Strong - USF
Will Muschamp - South Carolina
Jim McElwain - CMU
Lane Kiffen - FAU after a few years
Coach O - Had to to wait 10 seasons to get his next full time gig
Brady Hoke - LOL
Rich Rod - Went to the Studio then got to Arizona.
Kevin Sumlin - Arizona again.

I guess the point it is all of the flame outs usually land in the same area. A less than school after some time. Sumlin and Muschamp are exceptions to the rule, but it's not like either of those tenures are doing anything at the moment. Flame outs happen everywhere, so a coach that wants to make some $ and believes in himself should not let what happened to prior coaches stand in his way.

I do agree with you though that if given the option between ND and USC, a coach with no ties to the MW or ND would pick USC 9 times out of ten. But IMO, that is why you have to be selective and why Jack/any AD needs to have that short list ready to go at all times.

 

[stlnd01]

Lot's to digest here.

Let me ask you this....what is your definition of "an established, good coach". I agree with you on the Saban, Dabo, etc commentary. Coaches that have a really good job today will not take on the ND job UNLESS there is some previous connection to the university that is overwhelmingly positive. For example, if John Harbaugh was having a really shitty year, he may look at ND favorably given his family situation. Not saying that is likely, just that a connection like that could tip the scales if a coach is currently out of a job or wants out of a job. But you are right, ND will not "hire away" a coach from a top program.

But, I would consider other coaches that have done a fine a job at other P5 programs certainly as fair game. Matt Campbell has done a terrific job at ISU and would be a top someone that I would say mirrors BK's situation when he was hired. I would consider coaches like Matt Campell as an established, good coach. I agree with you though, I would not replace BK at this point for just anyone.

I agree with you though, I would not replace BK at this point for just anyone.

As to your other point about coaches landing elsewhere.....Can you tell me when a coach at any top program was fired and landed somewhere nice?

Recent example that come to my mind off the top of my head are:

Les Miles - Kansas
Mack Brown - UNC after a long hiatus
Charlie Strong - USF
Will Muschamp - South Carolina
Jim McElwain - CMU
Lane Kiffen - FAU after a few years
Coach O - Had to to wait 10 seasons to get his next full time gig
Brady Hoke - LOL
Rich Rod - Went to the Studio then got to Arizona.
Kevin Sumlin - Arizona again.

I guess the point it is all of the flame outs usually land in the same area. A less than school after some time. Sumlin and Muschamp are exceptions to the rule, but it's not like either of those tenures are doing anything at the moment. Flame outs happen everywhere, so a coach that wants to make some $ and believes in himself should not let what happened to prior coaches stand in his way.

I do agree with you though that if given the option between ND and USC, a coach with no ties to the MW or ND would pick USC 9 times out of ten. But IMO, that is why you have to be selective and why Jack/any AD needs to have that short list ready to go at all times.

For what it's worth, barring a repeat of 2016, I'd think a "mutual parting of the ways" is far more likely for Kelly than an outright firing. More akin to how Jimbo Fisher left FSU, or Mark Richt left Georgia. And whether they jumped (Fisher) or were pushed (Richt), they both landed somewhere pretty good, in the grand scheme of things.

Regardless, I don't think BK's going anywhere for at least a couple of years (unless maybe if he's sick of ND bullshit and USC came calling with an offer he can't refuse). If/when he does go, he has built things into pretty good shape and I think we'd get strong interest from some very good established P5 head coaches (Matt Rhule, Kyle Whittingham, maybe Dan Mullen), though maybe not the Gods of the Sport who are used to having all rules bent in their favor. Even with the restrictions it's still a top ten job in college football.

 

[ickythump1225]

Dan Mullen ain't leaving Florida for here. Not in this universe.

 

[ulukinatme]

Lot's to digest here.

Let me ask you this....what is your definition of "an established, good coach". I agree with you on the Saban, Dabo, etc commentary. Coaches that have a really good job today will not take on the ND job UNLESS there is some previous connection to the university that is overwhelmingly positive. For example, if John Harbaugh was having a really shitty year, he may look at ND favorably given his family situation. Not saying that is likely, just that a connection like that could tip the scales if a coach is currently out of a job or wants out of a job. But you are right, ND will not "hire away" a coach from a top program.

But, I would consider other coaches that have done a fine a job at other P5 programs certainly as fair game. Matt Campbell has done a terrific job at ISU and would be a top someone that I would say mirrors BK's situation when he was hired. I would consider coaches like Matt Campell as an established, good coach. I agree with you though, I would not replace BK at this point for just anyone.

I agree with you though, I would not replace BK at this point for just anyone.

As to your other point about coaches landing elsewhere.....Can you tell me when a coach at any top program was fired and landed somewhere nice?

Recent example that come to my mind off the top of my head are:

Les Miles - Kansas
Mack Brown - UNC after a long hiatus
Charlie Strong - USF
Will Muschamp - South Carolina
Jim McElwain - CMU
Lane Kiffen - FAU after a few years
Coach O - Had to to wait 10 seasons to get his next full time gig
Brady Hoke - LOL
Rich Rod - Went to the Studio then got to Arizona.
Kevin Sumlin - Arizona again.

I guess the point it is all of the flame outs usually land in the same area. A less than school after some time. Sumlin and Muschamp are exceptions to the rule, but it's not like either of those tenures are doing anything at the moment. Flame outs happen everywhere, so a coach that wants to make some $ and believes in himself should not let what happened to prior coaches stand in his way.

I do agree with you though that if given the option between ND and USC, a coach with no ties to the MW or ND would pick USC 9 times out of ten. But IMO, that is why you have to be selective and why Jack/any AD needs to have that short list ready to go at all times.

When I refer to an established, good coach I would say any of the big boys in P5 that aren't on the hot seat and are making good bank. If they're not in the hot seat, they're probably winning consistently enough to keep their fan bases happy, and if they're in the Top 15-30 in salary then they're not going to come to ND to make the same cash or less. So, that's why I say the next coach is going to be a relative unknown with recent success, likely someone at a Group of 5 program in the midst of a Cinderella run or a smaller P5 program enjoying similar success.

I'm not sure I get the Harbaugh connection. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I'm genuinely curious. To my knowledge he has no academic ties to ND, and he doesn't have any employment history either. How does his family situation come into play, especially if we don't play Michigan for another 14 years? [EDIT] Daughter at ND, I forgot. Maybe that's enough, who can say though.

I'll say this much for Matt Campbell: he's taken 3 star talent at ISU and done some great things. They haven't hit double digit wins or anything, but they've been competitive in every loss since his first season. No blowouts the last few years, and they've been competitive with all the big boys in the Big 12. That said, he's one of the favorites for the FSU job, I would expect he lands there instead.

As far as coaches flaming out and ended up at crummy jobs, that's kind of expected, right? The point I was going for is it's obviously harder to win at ND than it is an tOSU, Florida, or most other big programs. If you have the option to go to a football factory or ND, most coaches take the traditional football factory because there's a better chance you succeed. It's a better career move. When the margin for error at ND is smaller, it's just too risky when most good coaches have a path of less resistance available.

There was one coach that got fired and still found himself in promising positions at a few different stops: Kiffin. Going from the Raiders to UT was pretty decent, it was still considered a good job at that time. He left on his own accord to go to USC, and then after being fired he wound up as Saban's OC which is almost a lateral move these days when you consider Saban's lackeys all get HC jobs of their own after a year or two on his staff. The move to FAU is a bit head scratching, but I'm sure he thought he could use his newfound knowledge to parlay that into a better gig once again. For what it's worth, he's also expressed interest in the FSU job.

 

[NDRock]

I should have been more clear, I typed in haste.

The risk I refer to is risk to hitting the goal of a NC.

At this point in time, we know the following to be true about BK....

1) For all the rich overtones of being an offense guru, his offenses while at ND have been underwhelming. Really, only the 2015 team is one that you can point to and say was a great offense. Not sure how much of it was Sanford versus BK.

2) We know what a bad coordinator hire can do to ND under BK's watch. See: BVG.

3) Tommy Rees has no documented experience prior to ND beyond being a GA at NW and an "offensive assistant" for the Chargers for one year. Tommy's "offense" is almost assuredly what ever he has picked up from Long and BK.

4) BK's system is so successful, that his coaching tree has produced the ripest fruits for all of the G5 and lower P5 teams to pluck. I mean, who isn't pounding the doors down for Chuck Martin, Bob Diaco, Jeff Quinn, Charley Molnar etc. Butch Jones is probably the most successful and he might be able to coax himself Rutgers.

With all that said, hiring Tommy is akin to prolonging the same failures that have plagued ND since BK's arrival. Sure, you could pull the plug in a year or two if it doesn't work. But this is a path we have already been down and BK's cronies that he brings to South Bend have a poor track record. His best hires (Lea, Sanford, Harry, etc) have come from outside his tree.

That's not to say that bringing in a random HC would be better. But again, if your goal is to win a NC, a HC that has proven himself on a big stage would be a less risky move towards a NC. In all honesty, it probably would fair. Them the odds. But the odds of success are, IMO, higher than if we go down the BK coaching tree path.

I'll put it this way....if someone believes that BK is an OC away from greatness, we need to hire an OC that is completely independent of BK's coaching tree. Tommy Rees is the farthest thing from that.

It had more to do with the fact we had NFL talent at QB (2nd round pick) RB (3rd round pick) and WR (1st round pick). Kelly has recruited very few top end skill players at ND. Honestly, other than those three (Kizer, Procise, and Fuller) have we had any skill players drafted in the top 3 rounds from a Kelly class? Pretty sad, as we're in year 10.

 

[Irishize]

I never said they weren't, that has nothing to do with my point. An established, good coach is not coming to South Bend. Why take on the challenges of ND and possibly damage your career when you can go to a program like USC with a much easier path to success? My comment was in response to a statement that essentially read "A coach will come here so he can be the one to resurrect ND to championship status." That notion is silly. If people would take the green colored glasses off they'd realize Urban, Saban, and Dabo are not coming here. Obviously Saban and Dabo have far better gigs at their current jobs, and they're making more money. Meyer basically has his pick of any program that's willing to take on his risk, and football factories like USC would have first pecking order. Why would Urban come to South Bend when he can go to USC where the recruits basically come to you, the weather is fantastic, the academics are less important, and players aren't suspended above and beyond what the NCAA calls for? There is very little benefit for an established good coach to come here in comparison. Nobody is going to take on the challenges of ND for glory, not when it means risking their career.

Our next coaching hire, whoever that may be, will likely be a relative unknown with some recent success. We were rather lucky to get Kelly when we did, a coach who has an impressive record at his previous stops and is or was considered one of the better active coaches. The next coach will have less wins under his belt. By all accounts, even today, I think most people would say Kelly has been a decent hire. He's been the best coach since Lou, and he's at least gotten us back to the big stage a few times. If Kelly doesn't retire, I think there probably is a good possibility he does wind up at a decent program who hopes he can repeat his Cincinnati success. Kelly is kind of the exception to the rule though. If he didn't have that long history of previous success and he flames out at ND, he's at Kansas just like Weis was.

Well said. Not sure why ND fans everywhere can’t get this through their collective heads. Urban Meyer does not covet the head coaching position at Notre Dame. And when you factor in that ND would unlikely approve of hiring someone like Meyer w/ his baggage, it should make it a moot point.

 

[Irishize]

Dan Mullen ain't leaving Florida for here. Not in this universe.

I think you’re right. There may have been a shot at him while he was at Mississippi State but UF trumps that for sure.