Autry - I am undecided (on who wins). We are well within the margin of error on many polls and I do believe they oversampled democrats. While the Karl Rove discussion of a 260,000 early vote swing to Romney's favor is compelling, that data comes from Republicans. If I could confirm that data somewhere else I would have high confidence in Romney winning Ohio. As is, I have to mark it up to propaganda.
My tinfoil hat tells me the pollsters work for media. Media generally wants Obama to win, thus their biases toward Obama. Likewise Rasmussen and Gallup pander to Fox. You have a 3 or 4 network to 1 battle there (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN versus Fox) which implies to me potential for skewness.
I also think Silver got lucky last time around. The averages averaged out perfectly. We are within the margin of error or pretty much every poll on a national and swing state level, something like 10 or 12 states are legitimately debatable.
I also fall back on the anecdotal evidence that I know plenty of Obama supporters that are 1) switching to Romney or 2) not voting. No one I know has switched from McCain to Romney or McCain to abstain.
So short of starting my own political blog and going nuts with statistical analysis, I have to say it is too close to call.
I agree with whoever said Libertarians need to target some Senate seats, quickest and most realistic way to impact the debate, preferably "moderate" libertarians and not extremist kooks.
