Path to the CFP?

[EvilleIrish]

Any predictions on where we are tonight? I'll say 7.

 

[Irish du Nord]

Everything you've mentioned in these two posts, imo, can be defined as "a lot."

Sure but nothing more than what I put in the original post is needed to make a case we deserve to be in, and that’s why I posted it.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Any predictions on where we are tonight? I'll say 7.

That makes the most sense to me but I just don't think the committee will agree, have a gut feeling. Coaches and AP both put us to 7 which makes the most sense after Purdue knocked off Sparty, but they'll knock us for SOR I would bet.

 

[NDohio]

Any predictions on where we are tonight? I'll say 7.

I don't think we move up much at all. I'll say 9.

 

[IrishLax]

I don't think we move up much at all. I'll say 9.

Nailed it.

Committee has set it up so that Cinci cannot end up any higher than 5th short of absolute chaos. That puts ND's hard cap at ~#6... again, unless their is absolute chaos or Cinci loses to give them justification to drop them. Most likely scenario if everyone holds serve is -- #1 Georgia #2 Oregon #3 Ohio State #4 Oklahoma. Possibly they jump Oklahoma into the the #2/#3 spot to avoid rematch, likely shifting Oregon to #4 based on SOS. Cinci at #5, ND/Bama in the 6 and 7 slots. With Michigan and MSU each having picked up another loss to Ohio State, their ranking will be largely irrelevant but they'll likely try to keep someone near the top 10 for Rose Bowl reasons. PAC12 #2 is increasingly becoming a problem because Utah is the only team that is even ranked right now besides Oregon. Obviously, throw all of this out the window if something doesn't go to chalk.

For Cinci to get in, they basically need the following to happen:
-Big Ten East winner UPSET by Big Ten West winner AND
-Oregon drops another game AND
-Georgia holds serve, every SEC West team has 2+ losses

That probably gets them in as the #3 seed regardless of what happens in the Big 12, and might actually get Notre Dame in as the #4 seed to get blasted by Georgia. Any other combination of results and they probably find a way to leave them out.

 

[Dale]

ND could get in before Cinci does and I don’t think we have even a 1% chance of getting in. The committee has zero plan to even consider UC for a spot. They gave the committee a loaded shotgun last week struggling (and continuing to struggle) with bottom feeder AAC teams. SMU then took the shotgun and blew the head off. It’s not gonna happen.

 

[Dale]

Fickell and the AAC commissioner can whine all they want but SMU lost to Memphis, Houston lost to Texas Tech and UCF fell off a cliff. That’s your conference.

 

[ThePiombino]

How TF is Michigan ranked ahead of MSU? Why even play the games?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Michigan has a quality loss to the only team that's beaten Michigan. MSU lost to lowly Purdue. Simple as.

 

[Wild Bill]

Nailed it.

Committee has set it up so that Cinci cannot end up any higher than 5th short of absolute chaos. That puts ND's hard cap at ~#6... again, unless their is absolute chaos or Cinci loses to give them justification to drop them. Most likely scenario if everyone holds serve is -- #1 Georgia #2 Oregon #3 Ohio State #4 Oklahoma. Possibly they jump Oklahoma into the the #2/#3 spot to avoid rematch, likely shifting Oregon to #4 based on SOS. Cinci at #5, ND/Bama in the 6 and 7 slots. With Michigan and MSU each having picked up another loss to Ohio State, their ranking will be largely irrelevant but they'll likely try to keep someone near the top 10 for Rose Bowl reasons. PAC12 #2 is increasingly becoming a problem because Utah is the only team that is even ranked right now besides Oregon. Obviously, throw all of this out the window if something doesn't go to chalk.
If
For Cinci to get in, they basically need the following to happen:
Left-Big Ten East winner UPSET by Big Ten West winner AND
-Oregon drops another game AND
Probably-Georgia holds serve, every SEC West team has 2+ losses

That probably gets them in as the #3 seed regardless of what happens in the Big 12, and might actually get Notre Dame in as the #4 seed to get blasted by Georgia. Any other combination of results and they probably find a way to leave them out.

I'm not sure I agree. I think it's more likely than not Oklahoma and Oregon lose. Ok has okie State, Baylor and ISU plus title game. Oregon has to beat Utes twice, in Utah and again in title game. Bama looks vulnerable. Even if two of three happen and Cincy runs table it looks like they have a path. MAYBE okie State can jump them if they beat the breaks off everyone the next five weeks.

If all three happen, I don't see how they get left out.

That said, they'll probably lose and we'll be lining up against Georgia in semis.

 

[Irish du Nord]

ND could get in before Cinci does and I don’t think we have even a 1% chance of getting in. The committee has zero plan to even consider UC for a spot. They gave the committee a loaded shotgun last week struggling (and continuing to struggle) with bottom feeder AAC teams. SMU then took the shotgun and blew the head off. It’s not gonna happen.

When did the point of games change from winning games to being flashy? Cincy has a better win than any undefeated team, who cares how much they beat Tulsa by? They won the game. If Oregon thinks they deserve to be in the playoff they should’ve beaten Stanford. If pOSU thinks they deserve to be in they should’ve beaten Oregon. I really couldn’t care less how good their receivers look blowing out Rutgers, winning in style doesn’t erase losses.

 

[Dale]

When did the point of games change from winning games to being flashy? Cincy has a better win than any undefeated team, who cares how much they beat Tulsa by? They won the game. If Oregon thinks they deserve to be in the playoff they should’ve beaten Stanford. If pOSU thinks they deserve to be in they should’ve beaten Oregon. I really couldn’t care less how good their receivers look blowing out Rutgers, winning in style doesn’t erase losses.

Of course no one actually cares about style points. They need something to say on TV though.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

When did the point of games change from winning games to being flashy? Cincy has a better win than any undefeated team, who cares how much they beat Tulsa by? They won the game. If Oregon thinks they deserve to be in the playoff they should’ve beaten Stanford. If pOSU thinks they deserve to be in they should’ve beaten Oregon. I really couldn’t care less how good their receivers look blowing out Rutgers, winning in style doesn’t erase losses.

It's never just been about resume. The polls always had the "eye test", the BCS integrated stuff like margin of victory, and now the CFP is more overtly ranking teams based on perceived strength. Same as it ever was.

 

[GATTACA!]

It's never just been about resume. The polls always had the "eye test", the BCS integrated stuff like margin of victory, and now the CFP is more overtly ranking teams based on perceived strength. Same as it ever was.

At least MoV is quantifiable. The BCS was waaaay better than the committee.

 

[BeatSC]

both games were at home for Georgia

First game was at night at ND. Wimbush first game and some shitty refereeing helped GA squeak it out. That’s the game the lame ND fan base sold out and sold their tickets to GA fans for 5X.

 

[BeatSC]

How TF is Michigan ranked ahead of MSU? Why even play the games?

1993
#1 FSU
#2 ND

It can happen and it did happen. If Cincy has one loss we jump them too. We would beat them now. Cincy is now being gunned for like ND is every week and they need every break to go their way to win. That Tulsa win should have dropped them.

 

[BeatSC]

When did the point of games change from winning games to being flashy? Cincy has a better win than any undefeated team, who cares how much they beat Tulsa by? They won the game. If Oregon thinks they deserve to be in the playoff they should’ve beaten Stanford. If pOSU thinks they deserve to be in they should’ve beaten Oregon. I really couldn’t care less how good their receivers look blowing out Rutgers, winning in style doesn’t erase losses.

But I think winning in style and improving and dominating shows you are now a better team than that. Do we really think Oregon beats OSU again? Do we really think Cincy beats us again? No way. Eye test. Who are the best teams with a a top. Itch record(0 or 1 loss). If Purdue and Wisconsin continue to surprise we will have the best resume. If UNC can finish string it will also help us. The Toledo scare is a big black eye but we are also a much better team now and that should matter.

 

[BeatSC]

When did the point of games change from winning games to being flashy? Cincy has a better win than any undefeated team, who cares how much they beat Tulsa by? They won the game. If Oregon thinks they deserve to be in the playoff they should’ve beaten Stanford. If pOSU thinks they deserve to be in they should’ve beaten Oregon. I really couldn’t care less how good their receivers look blowing out Rutgers, winning in style doesn’t erase losses.

ND running up the score on Wisconsin is our biggest argument to be given a harder look if the Badgers continue to roll.

 

[ND88]

Fellas, you guys are great. True believers and all. But like many in this thread are saying, no way in hell is ND going to make the playoffs. We lost a game versus an average team. Why? Because we have played down to the majority of teams we’ve played this season. And since we aren’t in a conference, the committee is nailing us. It’s a bummer, because outside of Georgia and Alabama (sort of), there are so many bum teams with major flaws that we could beat.

Michigan at 6 is an effin joke. Oregon can go suck an egg. So many trash teams in this ranking. But yo, it ain’t happening for us.

 

[Wild Bill]

ND running up the score on Wisconsin is our biggest argument to be given a harder look if the Badgers continue to roll.

And Purdue. That's how you know you're fucked, when you're relying on Purdue.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

Fellas, you guys are great. True believers and all. But like many in this thread are saying, no way in hell is ND going to make the playoffs. We lost a game versus an average team. Why? Because we have played down to the majority of teams we’ve played this season. And since we aren’t in a conference, the committee is nailing us. It’s a bummer, because outside of Georgia and Alabama (sort of), there are so many bum teams with major flaws that we could beat.

Michigan at 6 is an effin joke. Oregon can go suck an egg. So many trash teams in this ranking. But yo, it ain’t happening for us.

There’s been 69 ranked teams that have lost in the first 10 weeks of the season. You really think that is going to stop? 21 of those loses have been teams inside the top 10. There are more upsets on the horizon. It’s been a crazy year. To just say we have no chance is asinine. We have a shot. We need a ton of stuff to happen but it’s not impossible.

Keep winning and let the dominos fall in front of us.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

There’s been 69 ranked teams that have lost in the first 10 weeks of the season. You really think that is going to stop? 21 of those loses have been teams inside the top 10. There are more upsets on the horizon. It’s been a crazy year. To just say we have no chance is asinine. We have a shot. We need a ton of stuff to happen but it’s not impossible.

Keep winning and let the dominos fall in front of us.

We have no chance.

 

[arndtjc]

Finish 11-1 and let the chips fall where they may

 

[T-Boone]

First game was at night at ND. Wimbush first game and some shitty refereeing helped GA squeak it out. That’s the game the lame ND fan base sold out and sold their tickets to GA fans for 5X.

I know, though that was Wimbush's second game. His first was a week earlier against Temple which I attended, its the only ND game I've been to.

 

[Ndaccountant]

There’s been 69 ranked teams that have lost in the first 10 weeks of the season. You really think that is going to stop? 21 of those loses have been teams inside the top 10. There are more upsets on the horizon. It’s been a crazy year. To just say we have no chance is asinine. We have a shot. We need a ton of stuff to happen but it’s not impossible.

Keep winning and let the dominos fall in front of us.

Yes and no. While Iowa was an "upset", they were never a top 5 team realistically speaking. Ditto for MSU. The real blue bloods rise to the top. I will be very surprised if the 4 teams in the playoff come from outside the 5 teams of UGA / Bama / OSU / Oregon / Oklahoma. Everyone else is playing for NY6.

 

[dad4aa]

First game was at night at ND. Wimbush first game and some shitty refereeing helped GA squeak it out. That’s the game the lame ND fan base sold out and sold their tickets to GA fans for 5X.

It was a joke because it felt like a home game for Georgia since they took over the stadium. Note the italics.

 

[tko]

Best UVA

 

[phork]

Win out. Sucks ND played its worst game vs Cincy but out of their hands now. Never be in a position to rely on other folks to take care of your business.

 

[Irish#1]

Fellas, you guys are great. True believers and all. But like many in this thread are saying, no way in hell is ND going to make the playoffs. We lost a game versus an average team. Why? Because we have played down to the majority of teams we’ve played this season. And since we aren’t in a conference, the committee is nailing us. It’s a bummer, because outside of Georgia and Alabama (sort of), there are so many bum teams with major flaws that we could beat.

Michigan at 6 is an effin joke. Oregon can go suck an egg. So many trash teams in this ranking. But yo, it ain’t happening for us.

Did we, or did those teams play over their heads? ND is ND and teams circle that date on the schedule as soon as the schedule is released.

 

[IrishLax]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/BCSKnowHow/status/1458264292067889159?s=20[/TWEET]

It's crazy to think how clear ND's path would be if they just used the old BCS formula (polls + computers) to pick the top four teams. Would need Georgia to hold serve, meaning Bama picks up another loss, and would need Oklahoma to drop a game or a Big Ten West upset in their conference championship or Cinci to drop a game. That's it.

Also, if ND was in the ACC this year, the path would likewise be incredibly easy even for this bad ND team. Being independent but playing 5 ACC teams a year (who all get byes!) is just silly at this point. Might as well play 8 ACC games and drop the irrelevant games against Cinci, Purdue, etc. You can't tell me that playing Cincinnati or Purdue on a normal year is more exciting or tougher than playing BC, Pitt, or whatever filler ACC team would make up ND's schedule.