Oct 4 | Stanford

Whiskeyjack

Whiskeyjack

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FO's Brian Fremeau just published an article titled "Cardinal Sins" regarding Stanford's historic redzone ineptitude against SC:

Bill Connelly and I both pay particular attention to how teams finish drives. Bill measures scoring opportunities as those that cross the opponent's 40-yard line, one of the Five Factors that are most important in determining the outcome of college football games. I measure value drives as possessions that cross the opponent's 30-yard line, the line at which a field-goal attempt becomes better than a 50-50 proposition for an average college kicker. Either way, the zone through which offenses move the ball and points on the scoreboard become a real threat is critical to winning football games. On Saturday, Stanford and USC provided us with one of the most extreme examples on record.
The Cardinal had nine total offensive possessions in the game. That's three fewer non-garbage possessions than a typical game, but not an extraordinarily low number in a game in which both teams move the ball consistently and methodically. Every single one of Stanford's nine possessions ended across the USC 35-yard line. That's unusual.
In the 737 FBS vs. FBS games played last season, a team ended every non-garbage possession across the opponent's 35-yard line only 16 times. Only five of those occasions went nine-for-nine.

[FOLLOW LINK FOR TABLE]

"NG Final" refers to the score at the end of non-garbage time possessions
"SO/Poss" refers to the number of scoring opportunities per total non-garbage possession
A few things jump out immediately from this table. One is the level of competition faced by the offenses in these games. The average FEI ranking for the opponents in these 16 games was No. 101, and only one of the opponents ranked among the top 60 in the country last year. Stanford's opponent this weekend currently ranks No. 3 and projects to be a College Football Playoff contender.

The second thing that jumps out from the table is that every one of those teams that had such success crossing into opponent scoring territory had little trouble putting points on the board. They averaged 42.5 points in non-garbage time as a group and average 49.6 points total for the game. None scored fewer than 33 points. Stanford, of course, scored only 10 points this past weekend.

It was epic futility in scoring range for the Cardinal. Two missed field goals, two fumbles, a turnover on downs, and two punts killed seven of the nine drives. The ball was at the USC 29-yard line and the USC 32-yard line at the end of the drives that ended with a punt for Stanford. That's extraordinary as well. In the entire 2013 season, only nine punts came at the end of drives at or inside the opponent's 32-yard line -- nine out of 6,978 non-garbage time punts total.

With seven failed possessions ending across the opponent's 35-yard line, it is amazing that Stanford was in the game at all. Only one team in 2013 went scoreless on more than four trips across the opponent's 35-yard line and still won the game: Oklahoma State defeated TCU 24-10 and had six failed possessions that ended across the Horned Frog's 35-yard line. Six teams failed on five non-garbage trips across the opponent's 35-yard line and lost, and their average margin of defeat was 18.9 points.

Instead, Stanford remained locked in a 10-10 tie until USC kicked a 53-yard field goal with less than three minutes left in the game. That possession for the Trojans ended on, you guessed it, the Stanford 35-yard line. USC had only eight non-garbage possessions in the game and only two of them ended across that yard line on the field, and two died at the 35. Only twice last season did a team lose a game in which it had more than four scoring opportunities across the opponent's 35-yard line than its foe. Both games were lost in overtime -- Western Michigan fell 32-35 to Eastern Michigan, and San Diego State fell 28-35 to Fresno State.

More data will be needed before FEI passes its final judgment on the offensive and defensive efficiency results of the game, but as of now, a close game between two strong opponents rates as a feather in the cap of both teams. USC and Stanford both reside in the FEI top 4 this week, and both project to be contenders in the Pac-12 South and North division races the rest of the way. If Stanford struggles to put the ball in the end zone when it moves into scoring range all year, they won't last long. If USC's defense continues to lock down opponent scoring opportunities like it did last weekend, they'll be a playoff contender for sure.
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Chamellion

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It's too bad that AU - LSU is this week or we could expect to get game day again.
 
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koonja

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Chamellion said:
It's too bad that AU - LSU is this week or we could expect to get game day again.
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My God. Google both Auburn and LSU's schedule up to that game. Pathetic. And to the casual fan, that 6-0 leading into it will look great.
 
T Town Tommy

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koonja said:
My God. Google both Auburn and LSU's schedule up to that game. Pathetic. And to the casual fan, that 6-0 leading into it will look great.
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LSU - beat then # 14 Wiskey play Miss State who is currently just outside top 25 Sam Houston St La Monroe

Auburn - beat Ark play # 19 K State San Jose St La Tech

Irish - Michigan Syracuse Purdue Rice

I don't really understand your pathetic comment koon. Both will have played better opponents than either of the four Irish opponents by the time Oct 4th comes along. And each's remaining schedule after Oct 4th is as tough, or tougher, than the Irish. A lot of football to play but on paper I don't see much difference in any of the three's schedule.

End of the day if Auburn and LSU are undefeated, I would expect Game Day to be at that game over a ND/Stanford where one team has a loss already - and Stanford potentially could have two losses as they have to go to Washington.
 
jspags10pg

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T Town Tommy said:
LSU - beat then # 14 Wiskey play Miss State who is currently just outside top 25 Sam Houston St La Monroe

Auburn - beat Ark play # 19 K State San Jose St La Tech

Irish - Michigan Syracuse Purdue Rice

I don't really understand your pathetic comment koon. Both will have played better opponents than either of the four Irish opponents by the time Oct 4th comes along. And each's remaining schedule after Oct 4th is as tough, or tougher, than the Irish. A lot of football to play but on paper I don't see much difference in any of the three's schedule.

End of the day if Auburn and LSU are undefeated, I would expect Game Day to be at that game over a ND/Stanford where one team has a loss already - and Stanford potentially could have two losses as they have to go to Washington.
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Don't disagree with any of this except that Stanford will blow Washington out. I think my high school's current team could beat Washington. They've been terrible so far.
 
Whiskeyjack

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T Town Tommy said:
I don't really understand your pathetic comment koon. Both will have played better opponents than either of the four Irish opponents by the time Oct 4th comes along. And each's remaining schedule after Oct 4th is as tough, or tougher, than the Irish. A lot of football to play but on paper I don't see much difference in any of the three's schedule.
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I agree with your general point, Tommy, but I wouldn't lump LSU and Auburn together here. Auburn's schedule projects to be absolutely brutal; FEI and Phil Steele currently project it as the 2nd and 5th most difficult, respectively. Those same models project ND's SoS as 9th and 1st, respectively. LSU is a long way behind both-- 23rd and 34th, respectively.

Based on the their current rankings, Sagarin rates LSU's opponents through week 5 as 14, 155, 116, 35 and 177, for an average ranking of 99th (and that's likely to drop considerably as Wisconsin tumbles). ND's are 61, 48, 167, 26 and 23, for an average of 65th. That's significantly harder than LSU's embarrassingly soft early schedule.

In other words, I'll grant you Auburn. But Jake has a point about LSU.
 
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koonja

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Looking for 2 for the Stanford game. I can only go for a good price, so just seeing if anyone has any that can't make it. Taking GF to first ever football game.
 
K

koonja

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I'm looking for 1-2 tickets to the game and someone to go with/tailgate with because I'm going alone. Was going to take my GF and be a nice, civil fan, but just found out she'll be in Chicago so I want to party then go to the game.

PM me if you're awesome.
 
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IrishSteelhead

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koonja said:
I'm looking for 1-2 tickets to the game and someone to go with/tailgate with because I'm going alone. Was going to take my GF and be a nice, civil fan, but just found out she'll be in Chicago so I want to party then go to the game.

PM me if you're awesome.
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If I don't end up taking my dad I'll let you know and be down to destroy.
 
K

koonja

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Just got my ticket. Who's tailgaiting?
 
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K

koonja

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What's the roll call for this game? And Ohio-ers are welcome to ride along with Clashmore and I. We'll planning to drive over early and coming back later than night.

And IE tailgates?
 
BillyIrish

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Just purchased 2. Traveling up from the 614. Excited as always, but I think my girlfriend is even more amped. She's never been (buckeye fan) to south bend. All morning she's been blowing up my phone asking about gameday details. I told her we'll have a couple bloody marys, sight see, take in the game day experience, eat a steak sandwich, and watch some football!

GO IRISH! Beat Cardinal!
 
condoms SUCk

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koonja said:
What's the roll call for this game? And Ohio-ers are welcome to ride along with Clashmore and I. We'll planning to drive over early and coming back later than night.

And IE tailgates?
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Ouch, sorry to hear that Clashmore.....good luck...you'll need it. :)
 
K

koonja

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BillyIrish said:
Just purchased 2. Traveling up from the 614. Excited as always, but I think my girlfriend is even more amped. She's never been (buckeye fan) to south bend. All morning she's been blowing up my phone asking about gameday details. I told her we'll have a couple bloody marys, sight see, take in the game day experience, eat a steak sandwich, and watch some football!

GO IRISH! Beat Cardinal!
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Where do you live in Ohio?
 
Rack Em

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I'll likely be coming.

Like hell I'd ride with you two clowns though.
 
D-BOE34

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Group of 12 going up. Tailgating across from the Linebacker with firefighters or something like that. Supposed to be a big deal but reckon I will find out when I get in!
 
K

koonja

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D-BOE34 said:
Group of 12 going up. Tailgating across from the Linebacker with firefighters or something like that. Supposed to be a big deal but reckon I will find out when I get in!
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Kind of sounds like this:

normal_105here_for_the_gang_bang.jpg
 
I

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Trying to make the trip its sounding favorable right now ! I would love to meet up with some IE celebrities and drink 1 or 2 or 20.
 
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koonja

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If anyone can find this channel or a way to watch it, I'd appreciate it.
 
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