Travis Etienne, the ultimate checkdown
If you're playing Clemson, the odds are good that your defense is the second-best one in that given game. But that might not be the case when the Tigers visit Notre Dame on Saturday night. Clemson has battled some big-play issues and given up more than 20 points to both Syracuse and Boston College the past two weeks; it's down to 10th in defensive SP+ -- oh, the shame, the horror -- while Notre Dame ranks eighth, having given up more than 13 points only once all year.
With Trevor Lawrence still out because of his coronavirus diagnosis, Notre Dame will instead gear up to stop a Tigers offense led by D.J. Uiagalelei. The blue-chip freshman and Cam Newton clone led a huge comeback against BC last week and has completed 70% of his passes with no picks this season.
Notre Dame's defense is quite a bit better than BC's, however. The Irish force you behind schedule with negative plays -- they're second in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), sixth in pass pressure rate and 16th in sack rate. They force you into third-and-long situations, and they get off the field: opponents have an 11% success rate on third-and-7+, fourth-lowest in the country.
While star linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has been every bit as good as expected (six tackles for loss, seven run stuffs), his dance partner up front, senior end Adetokunbo Ogundeji, has erupted.
Adetokunbo Ogundeji's pass rushing:
2019: 199 rushes, 9.5% pressure rate, 4.5 sacks
2020: 105 rushes, 17.1% pressure rate, 3 sacks
While only 16% of FBS receptions have gone to players out of the backfield, per Sports Info Solutions, 25% of receptions against Notre Dame fit that designation. That's typically a great thing for the Irish -- they swarm to the ball and give up only 6.1 yards per completion in these passes, far below the national average of 8.2 yards per completion.
Other teams don't have Travis Etienne, though.
Great offensive players can sometimes make you think smart defensive coaches are stupid. They make you yell things like "HOW COULD YOU NOT KNOW THE BALL WAS GOING TO THAT GUY?" when they almost certainly did know. Clemson's star running back is having a perfectly solid rushing year -- he has gained 606 yards (5.9 per carry) with nine touchdowns. But he has been a cheat code in the passing game.
Virginia and Miami have smart, effective coaches and solid defenses; they knew Etienne was ultra-dangerous out of the backfield, and they probably communicated that as clearly as possible to their players. And he still caught a combined 13 balls for 187 yards and 10 first downs. A whopping 116 of those yards came after first contact.
With Uiagalelei filling in for Lawrence last week and facing a major comeback, he repeatedly found Etienne for quick, easy gains. The senior caught seven passes for 140 yards, a touchdown and five first downs.
Granted, BC, Virginia and Miami all play more man coverage than Notre Dame, which can create both lower completion rates and higher big-play rates. The Irish are content to form a quarters-coverage cloud and swarm to short completions. Maybe that will hem in Etienne, but you still have to actually bring him down when you get to him. Easier said than done.
This game represents a huge opportunity for Notre Dame. As ESPN's Seth Walder has noted, an Irish win would give them equal odds with Clemson to reach the College Football Playoff. Clemson tends to respond to losses or near-upsets like last week's BC game by laying pedal to metal for the rest of the season, but with Lawrence still out, we don't really know what kind of Tigers performance we'll see. We know that they probably will lean on Etienne, though, and that tends to pay off.