I think our only chance to make the playoff is for the Big 12 big wigs to cannibalize each other, hopefully with some ugly losses in there, and then one other Power 5 champ picks up at least 2 losses. TCU/Baylor schedules are so bad that one bad loss to a decent opponent would likely rule them out completely. Our schedule isn't looking quite as good anymore with GT shitting the bed along with Texas, but we could make it up if USC, Clemson, and Stanford all do well.
With Big 12 out of the picture we would just need hopefully one of the remaining four Power 5 teams to pickup 2 losses. That would be great if it happens to be a conference champion we played and beat. If not, the only other scenario where we couldn't make it in is if a conference sends more than one team. If LSU loses to Bama in a close game and both teams win out otherwise, they could both wind up in the playoff.