Nov 27 | North Carolina

[Irishize]

I know there's been a lot of talk about Howell and his weapons but I do want to point one thing out. Not that QBR is the end-all, be-all, but:

Howell's QBR: 78.0 (22nd)
Book's QBR: 84.6 (16th)

HOwell is still a bit turnover prone, 6 INTs on the year. I, too, trust Clark Lea to dial up enough stops and I think Book, Rees and co. will continue to stay hot. We will outscore this team.

That’s a point worth noting...he does tend to force things which can lead to TOs. Hopefully, Lea focuses on the WR & let’s his DL worry about disturbing Howell. Where UNC kills their opponents is those quick slants b/c their WR will both play in the NFL & that play is tough to defend.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

That’s a point worth noting...he does tend to force things which can lead to TOs. Hopefully, Lea focuses on the WR & let’s his DL worry about disturbing Howell. Where UNC kills their opponents is those quick slants b/c their WR will both play in the NFL & that play is tough to defend.

Yep and as others have pointed out, our ability to RTDB and FINISHING RZ drives will be key. You're not going to beat these guys by settling for 3 inside the RZ.

Try to limit their drives/pound the rock, win the turnover battle, and score 6. We've been doing 2/3 of these very well and consistently this year, time to capitalize in the latter.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

So what I'm gathering is that we're going up against 2009 Notre Dame on Saturday.

 

[Wingman Ray]

If ND cant keep these guys under 35, then it has NO right to be considered a top team this year.

FSU held them to 28 pts. FSU who bleeds points to everyone
BC held them to 26 pts.

All their wins are against really, really bad opponents. NC state barely just beat a brand new D1 team in Liberty.

UNC wouldnt cause any of the good teams to lose sleep, much less the great teams. Do you really think Bama or OSU would be worried about beating UNC in a shootout?

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

If ND cant keep these guys under 35, then it has NO right to be considered a top team this year.

FSU held them to 28 pts. FSU who bleeds points to everyone
BC held them to 26 pts.

All their wins are against really, really bad opponents. NC state barely just beat a brand new D1 team in Liberty.

UNC wouldnt cause any of the good teams to lose sleep, much less the great teams. Do you really think Bama or OSU would be worried about beating UNC in a shootout?

I agree wtih you 100%, no argument here.

The only thing I'd add, though, is that when you're the brand that ND is, let alone having the #2 next to your name, fresh off of upsetting #1 Clemson, you're going to be catching the other team's full, undivided attention. UNC came in with a lot of hype, lost two games and feel like they could salvage their season with this upset. "Super Bowl" material, yet again, just like BC two weeks ago.

I do think UNC would be more apt than BC was at taking advantage of a slow start so I'm hoping we don't come out sleepy like we did in Chestnut Hill.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

So what I'm gathering is that we're going up against 2009 Notre Dame on Saturday.

lol, this one made me chuckle. Not too far off, from what I've seen from the Tar Heels and have read on here.

 

[IHateMarkMay]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNC?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNC</a> QB Sam Howell on facing Notre Dame: "Yeah we definitely have a lot of confidence that we can score as many points as it takes to win. We are going to have a really good plan..."</p>— Ross Martin (@RossMartin_IC) <a href="https://twitter.com/RossMartin_IC/status/1330642726669443073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 22, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth...

 

[IrishLax]

If ND cant keep these guys under 35, then it has NO right to be considered a top team this year.

FSU held them to 28 pts. FSU who bleeds points to everyone
BC held them to 26 pts.

All their wins are against really, really bad opponents. NC state barely just beat a brand new D1 team in Liberty.

UNC wouldnt cause any of the good teams to lose sleep, much less the great teams. Do you really think Bama or OSU would be worried about beating UNC in a shootout?

Yes. Well, probably not Bama, because Bama has an even better offense than UNC. But UNC is the kind of team that can beat anyone, but also lose to anyone. They just need a couple breaks when playing defense and then their offense will keep them in the game. By the same token, if they make a few mistakes on offense then they often find themselves in big holes because their defense gives up tons of big plays.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

ND must score when in the RZ.
Defense needs to just do what they do.

I have confidence in only one of the above items.

 

[Blazers46]

I can see NC scoring around 20. I think they will come in thinking they will score points because they have been able to against bad teams. If NC scores more than 20 its a moral victory for them.

They have a Defense that gve up 53 to Wake Forest, 44 to meh UVA, and 45 to VaTech... This is obviously the best Offense and Defense they will have faced.

Best case scenario
ND 65
UNC 10

Worst case scenario
ND 35
UNC 30

 

[DCDomer]

We are going to punish these dudes. They've scored a lot of points on bad football teams while also giving up a lot of points to bad football teams.

Not a great recipe coming into a game against a Top 4 team with a defense that makes good adjustments and an offense that's clicking right now.

 

[Rudy89]

I’ve been more nervous the last two games than I was for Clemson. It’s more nerve racking with teams trying to knock you down that I was trying to knock someone else down.

 

[Blazers46]

I’ve been more nervous the last two games than I was for Clemson. It’s more nerve racking with teams trying to knock you down that I was trying to knock someone else down.

ND usually has a dud. I am hoping their only dud was Louisville.

 

[Luckylucci]

As long as the offense if efficient and we don't have a TO problem, we should win. I think the defense will keep the point low enough to win. But, I also think there are going to be times where this game gets stressful and I'm prepping myself for that now. Over the course of 4 quarters I'll think we'll slowly pull away.

 

[texbender]

I’ve been more nervous the last two games than I was for Clemson. It’s more nerve racking with teams trying to knock you down that I was trying to knock someone else down.

I'm with ya, bro. This is the weekend that we are usually playing USC or Stanford, and it just seems ND never quite plays up to the level they should. Optimistic Irish come in focused, protect ball and play clean, and control the lines and clock. Will come home with #9.

 

[Irishize]

So what I'm gathering is that we're going up against 2009 Notre Dame on Saturday.

But w/ a much better running game. The passing attack is a good comp b/c that QB & the WR will play on Sundays.

 

[Dizzyphil]

As long as the offense if efficient and we don't have a TO problem, we should win. I think the defense will keep the point low enough to win. But, I also think there are going to be times where this game gets stressful and I'm prepping myself for that now. Over the course of 4 quarters I'll think we'll slowly pull away.

I would hope after the last three games, the TO issue is over... surely the coaching staff addressed this in the past bye week.



I'm guessing someone carried a 'baby' the last two weeks during classes and off-scheduled practices

 

[Dizzyphil]

This is the game if the Irish wins the 'coin-toss' they defer to the second half.


Put NC's offense out there first and watch the white in their eyes against the ND defense and get the Irish in short-field early.



If NC wins and defers,..... ram it down the NC D's face and get off the field in 3-4 mins and go from there.

 

[Junkhead]

I'm with ya, bro. This is the weekend that we are usually playing USC or Stanford, and it just seems ND never quite plays up to the level they should. Optimistic Irish come in focused, protect ball and play clean, and control the lines and clock. Will come home with #9.

We all have PTSD to the usual big game failure, but I think this team is different. They seem to know and expect to win. Even in other recent strong years, 2012 and 2018, everything fell into place, but ND was still not in the top tier. Even out 2 OL, I see ND winning 42-17. Hopefully even by more.

 

[Valpodoc85]

I suspect we wear them down late. This will limit the ability to protect Sam I Am. On the down side we cannot afford to lose OL. Here’s hoping for a few over the top quickies to start the game

 

[irishtrain]

I thought that this would be a loss at first look at schedule-I have changed my mind my jinx is on because I think the boys are ready-so blame it on me as I think Notre Dame is the better team even with 2 o lineman out.

 

[notredomer23]

I thought that this would be a loss at first look at schedule-I have changed my mind my jinx is on because I think the boys are ready-so blame it on me as I think Notre Dame is the better team even with 2 o lineman out.

Notre Dame, on paper, is the better team even with the whole offensive line out. If they blow this game, ND just isn’t as good as we think they are.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Notre Dame, on paper, is the better team even with the whole offensive line out. If they blow this game, ND just isn’t as good as we think they are.

This is where I'm at. I believe we are a top 4 team in the country. Top 4 teams win these games even if it's not pretty.

 

[Irish#1]

We all have PTSD to the usual big game failure, but I think this team is different. They seem to know and expect to win. Even in other recent strong years, 2012 and 2018, everything fell into place, but ND was still not in the top tier. Even out 2 OL, I see ND winning 42-17. Hopefully even by more.

It is and in retrospect, I think the loss at scUM was what was needed to change the mindset and make this team realize what was needed from the mental side to be a contender. Bring your best every game and stay dialed in until the clock reads 0:00.

 

[317Irish]

This is the game if the Irish wins the 'coin-toss' they defer to the second half.


Put NC's offense out there first and watch the white in their eyes against the ND defense and get the Irish in short-field early.



If NC wins and defers,..... ram it down the NC D's face and get off the field in 3-4 mins and go from there.

I see your point, but disagree with this. We need to not gamble with the idea of then being intimidated, and instead just limit their possessions on offense. Take the ball, try to run a 6 minute drive resulting in a TD and be happy to have the early lead. To be fair I always believe we should take the ball first tho lol

 

[IrishLax]

I think people are underselling UNC. Everyone know they have NFL talent everywhere on offense, but overall their team ranks #10 per SP+. Is that worse than ND, who is a top 5 team? Yeah. But it's also why the line on this game is so tight.

More importantly, I think their strengths in the passing game line up with our weaknesses. Give us Troy Pride and Julian Love back and forget about it... this game is a blowout. But we are going to (probably) play a ton of bend-don't-break zone because it's hard to se our CBs getting the job done consistently in man coverage versus NFL WRs.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I think people are underselling UNC. Everyone know they have NFL talent everywhere on offense, but overall their team ranks #10 per SP+. Is that worse than ND, who is a top 5 team? Yeah. But it's also why the line on this game is so tight.

More importantly, I think their strengths in the passing game line up with our weaknesses. Give us Troy Pride and Julian Love back and forget about it... this game is a blowout. But we are going to (probably) play a ton of bend-don't-break zone because it's hard to se our CBs getting the job done consistently in man coverage versus NFL WRs.

They also have Wisconsin at #4, one spot ahead of us, after playing 3 games and losing one of them to Northwestern. All metrics have flaws. I don't see how UNC is in the top 10 with losses to Florida St and Virginia and 0 good wins. "Their numbers are real good" argument doesn't hold up in this spot IMO.

 

[Irishize]

I think people are underselling UNC. Everyone know they have NFL talent everywhere on offense, but overall their team ranks #10 per SP+. Is that worse than ND, who is a top 5 team? Yeah. But it's also why the line on this game is so tight.

More importantly, I think their strengths in the passing game line up with our weaknesses. Give us Troy Pride and Julian Love back and forget about it... this game is a blowout. But we are going to (probably) play a ton of bend-don't-break zone because it's hard to se our CBs getting the job done consistently in man coverage versus NFL WRs.

Agreed & not just ND fans but also nationally. Casual non-ACC fans don’t have a clue I suspect. IMO, this will be the best offense ND faces in the regular season. Their WR are better than Clemson’s WR corps as it stands today.

The secondary worries the hell out of me. Even Hamilton will get stressed b/c he can’t do it all. Lewis at CB has a bright future but he’s a true freshman. Crawford has been up & down in pass coverage. And ND really can’t go w/ 5 DBs b/c UNC will just gash them on the ground.

 

[IrishLax]

They also have Wisconsin at #4, one spot ahead of us, after playing 3 games and losing one of them to Northwestern. All metrics have flaws. I don't see how UNC is in the top 10 with losses to Florida St and Virginia and 0 good wins. "Their numbers are real good" argument doesn't hold up in this spot IMO.

Yeah because Wisconsin totally shredded teams in two-thirds of their small sample size and then had a 5 turnover game which pretty much all advanced metrics equate to varying degrees of luck.

Let me ask you this -- would you be more confident playing @Oklahoma or @UNC? Because UNC probably has the more talented offense and marginally worse defense. Both have two losses, yet Oklahoma is rated #14 and UNC is #25. Would you rather play @ #10 Miami? I would, I think we'd beat Miami by 3 scores with relative ease.

The line for this game is 4.5 points for a reason. The moneyline is -190, giving us an implied probability of 65% to win this game. This is one of two teams on our regular season schedule that actually has the talent to match up with us, and I'll be very surprised if this isn't a one score game.

 

[Wingman Ray]

They also have Wisconsin at #4, one spot ahead of us, after playing 3 games and losing one of them to Northwestern. All metrics have flaws. I don't see how UNC is in the top 10 with losses to Florida St and Virginia and 0 good wins. "Their numbers are real good" argument doesn't hold up in this spot IMO.

Bingo. You can have crazy stats against teams that dont have a pulse. That is why these rankings have zero validity