Nov 27 | North Carolina

[InKellyWeTrust]

Yeah because Wisconsin totally shredded teams in two-thirds of their small sample size and then had a 5 turnover game which pretty much all advanced metrics equate to varying degrees of luck.

Let me ask you this -- would you be more confident playing @Oklahoma or @UNC? Because UNC probably has the more talented offense and marginally worse defense. Both have two losses, yet Oklahoma is rated #14 and UNC is #25. Would you rather play @ #10 Miami? I would, I think we'd beat Miami by 3 scores with relative ease.

The line for this game is 4.5 points for a reason. The moneyline is -190, giving us an implied probability of 65% to win this game. This is one of two teams on our regular season schedule that actually has the talent to match up with us, and I'll be very surprised if this isn't a one score game.

Oklahoma is more of a proven commodity. I trust Lincoln Riley more than Mack Brown to have his team ready to compete on both sides of the ball. I'm not denying UNC has talent but the amount of points they give up to bad teams is hard to ignore. I also don't deny the need for RZ efficiency on offense and limiting explosive plays on defense. We could lose this game, absolutely, but there is nothing this ND team has done this year to suggest they will.

 

[zelezo vlk]

UNC's offense is dangerous and can easily win them the game.

Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk

 

[notredomer23]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Updated numbers on UNC's run defense:<br><br>99th in opportunity rate (percentage of runs given up that are 4 yards or more)<br><br>120th in Stuff Rate (tackles on runs that result in 0 yards or less)<br><br>124th graded run defense in CFB according to PFF <a href="https://t.co/1C1EPFdhAl">https://t.co/1C1EPFdhAl</a></p>— Jamie Uyeyama (@jamieuyeyama) <a href="https://twitter.com/jamieuyeyama/status/1331301109944758272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Another thing I'd say about UNC. People seem to fawn over them because of their offensive numbers but if it were reversed - they had elite defensive numbers but pedestrian offensive numbers - they would sort of be ignored. Essentially we'd lump them in with Northwestern, cute story but lets wait until you play an actual contender...

 

[irishtrooper]

All the bed wetting over a team with their resume (consider their losses) is a bit much. Dangerous yes, but come on. We are not good if we lose to this team. We will cover easily and win by multiple scores.

-I say this understanding that anything can happen, but short of Book reverting to his Louisville performance, or several turnovers- we roll.

I suspect many of us who are so scared were also crapping their pants about Pitt a few games ago (not saying it’ll be that big of a margin). The overlap on a Venn diagram would be telling

 

[longliveautrydenson]

Reasons to be concerned about this game:

1. Our pass defense has underwhelmed the last two weeks.
2. We’ve come down with a bad case of fumbleitis.
3. Ian Book’s run of brilliance could come to an end.
4. O-line changes may hurt more than we realize.
5. Our red zone woes could continue.

Reasons to not be concerned:

1. This offense is great at soul sapping 7 minute drives.
2. Our defense is fresher than it’s been in weeks.
3. Clarke Lea has had two full weeks to prepare.
4. UNC’s safeties won’t do well if Kyren gets to 2nd level.
5. We didn’t punt against BC and they have a better D.

 

[Irish#1]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Updated numbers on UNC's run defense:<br><br>99th in opportunity rate (percentage of runs given up that are 4 yards or more)<br><br>120th in Stuff Rate (tackles on runs that result in 0 yards or less)<br><br>124th graded run defense in CFB according to PFF <a href="https://t.co/1C1EPFdhAl">https://t.co/1C1EPFdhAl</a></p>— Jamie Uyeyama (@jamieuyeyama) <a href="https://twitter.com/jamieuyeyama/status/1331301109944758272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Watch them stuff our first run and IE goes into immediate panic mode. Then everyone relaxes as KW breaks a long one.

 

[dad4aa]

Reasons to be concerned about this game:

1. None

Reasons to not be concerned:

1. We are ND.

Fixed it for you

 

[notredomer23]

Fixed it for you

That could be in both reasons to be concerned and not concerned.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

How does UNC's QB/Receivers stack up to say last year's USC? By the sounds of it their RB's are too talented to play the same playbook we did last year vs them but any thoughts to what the defensive game plan will be?

 

[Irishize]

All the bed wetting over a team with their resume (consider their losses) is a bit much. Dangerous yes, but come on. We are not good if we lose to this team. We will cover easily and win by multiple scores.

-I say this understanding that anything can happen, but short of Book reverting to his Louisville performance, or several turnovers- we roll.

I suspect many of us who are so scared were also crapping their pants about Pitt a few games ago (not saying it’ll be that big of a margin). The overlap on a Venn diagram would be telling

That’s all I’m saying. If ND turns the ball over like they did at BC, the Heels are much more likely to make ND pay. But you’re right, ND should win on paper but even the ND beat writers are warning that it won’t be a comfortable game...& some of these guys pick ND big over most opponents.

 

[Irishize]

How does UNC's QB/Receivers stack up to say last year's USC? By the sounds of it their RB's are too talented to play the same playbook we did last year vs them but any thoughts to what the defensive game plan will be?

You are correct. Lea cannot employ the same game plan vs UNC that he did vs USC b/c of the Heels dominant run game. Both of their backs are averaging over 100 yds per game. One of them (I forget which name) is arguably one of the best RB in the nation.

Coincidentally, ND & UNC average the same amount of rushing yards per game and rank #14 in the nation (if I heard correctly)

 

[texbender]

Looks like perfect football weather....mid 60's, light breeze, dry.

Let's Go Irish!

 

[ulukinatme]

Reasons to be concerned about this game:

1. Our pass defense has underwhelmed the last two weeks.
2. We’ve come down with a bad case of fumbleitis.
3. Ian Book’s run of brilliance could come to an end.
4. O-line changes may hurt more than we realize.
5. Our red zone woes could continue.

Reasons to not be concerned:

1. This offense is great at soul sapping 7 minute drives.
2. Our defense is fresher than it’s been in weeks.
3. Clarke Lea has had two full weeks to prepare.
4. UNC’s safeties won’t do well if Kyren gets to 2nd level.
5. We didn’t punt against BC and they have a better D.

This is a pretty good list. I don't see Ian being anything less than excellent, not unless the OL changes affect his protection greatly or we see the WR fall back to where they were at the beginning of the season. I think we'll be fine though, Book should be able to move the ball on these guys. I expect Lea to find a way to stop them.

Mack Brown is a meh coach. As the Longhorns on the SurlyHorns site would say, "Clark Lea's defense scares Mack to death." Their recruiting isn't completely awful, so they have some talent, but on the coaching level Mack Brown isn't a world beater. He got lucky with a talented Vince Young and couldn't do anything but regress afterwards even with all the talent Texas pulls in.

 

[Crazy Balki]

You are correct. Lea cannot employ the same game plan vs UNC that he did vs USC b/c of the Heels dominant run game. Both of their backs are averaging over 100 yds per game. One of them (I forget which name) is arguably one of the best RB in the nation.

Coincidentally, ND & UNC average the same amount of rushing yards per game and rank #14 in the nation (if I heard correctly)

That may not be the case.

For one, I look at UNC's rushing success and compare it to the level of competition played so far this year:

Syracuse: 111th rushing defense (214 ypg) & 82nd in yards per rush attempt (4.6)
BC: 62nd rushing defense (159 ypg) & 74th in yards per attempt (4.4)
Virginia Tech: 90th rushing defense (189 ypg) & 94th in yards per attempt (4.8)
FSU: 108th rushing defense (212 ypg) & 119th in yards per attempt (5.4)
NC St: 70th rushing defense (171 ypg) & 62nd in yards per attempt (4.2)
Virginia: 57th rushing defense (154 ypg) & 45th in yards per attempt (3.9)
Duke: 79th rushing defense (179 ypg) & 70th in yards per attempt (4.3)
Wake: 92nd rushing defense (192 ypg) & 97th in yards per attempt (4.9)

Now here's Notre Dame:
ND: 7th rushing defense (85 ypg) & 9th in yards per attempt (2.9)

ND is giving up on average nearly 70 yards less per game and a full yard less per carry than the next closest team in Virginia.

Also worth mentioning that Virginia is the only team they've play who is in the upper half of the country in terms of total rushing yards and yards per attempt, and in that game, UNC had only 93 yards of offense and averaged only 2.8 yards per attempt.

So the only above average run defense they played held their tandem of RB's mostly in check.

To summarize, UNC has yet to play a defense anywhere close to as good as ND's.

On top of that, you can also compare this year's ND defense to last year's. ND's run defense in 2019 was merely above average, giving up 153 yards rushing a game and 3.9 yards per attempt. This group is FAR better at defending the run than last year's squad. It isn't even close.

 

[Valpodoc85]

Does anybody think UNC offense is better than Clemsons? Etienne I would say is better than either UNC back. Lord knows there is no comparison on defense. I think we got this.

 

[IrishLax]

UNC checks in at #19 in the initial CFP rankings.

 

[Irish#1]

UNC checks in at #19 in the initial CFP rankings.

And they will check out around 6:00PM Friday. Let's roll these guys.

 

[Rudy89]

When does this game start Friday?

 

[dad4aa]

I believe kickoff is 3:30 EST

 

[ThePiombino]

I find myself being nervous about this game, but it's only because everyone is saying we should be nervous about this game. When I take a moment to step back and look at the game logically, I feel a lot better about things. Kinda reminiscent of how we were supposed to fear NCState back in '17, but we just wound up kicking their teeth in.

I could see us giving up some big plays, but I think Lea and company feel they have a lot to prove. I don't see us giving up 30+ again and I don't see us scoring less than 40. I'll guess 45-27 final.

 

[irish4ever]

I believe kickoff is 3:30 EST

Yes, on ABC. Iowa St. vs Texas on ABC before them (noon start). Probably be one of those triple OT games to push the 3:30pm Irish start.

 

[stpeteirish]

Yes, on ABC. Iowa St. vs Texas on ABC before them (noon start). Probably be one of those triple OT games to push the 3:30pm Irish start.

they can put it on ESPN News if that happens.

 

[Irish YJ]

UNC getting love from ESPN

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...know-different-kind-rivalry-week-more-week-13

 

[rtrn2glory]

I'm going to be a wreck all day tomorrow.... Nerves already

 

[tko]

ESPN would love nothing more than for ND to lay an egg. "Eye test"

 

[Rudy89]

I'm going to be a wreck all day tomorrow.... Nerves already

Same

 

[Rudy89]

ESPN would love nothing more than for ND to lay an egg. "Eye test"

They want us to be exposed since we beat Clemson without Lawrence....they want us to be “proven” a fraud of a team.

 

[irishtrain]

They want us to be exposed since we beat Clemson without Lawrence....they want us to be “proven” a fraud of a team.

I'm usually from the Lou school of how can we possibly beat this team etc-especially with 2 lineman out-not this time boys espn will have to sit back and watch Notre Dame win this game-i'm pissed at their constant bull&#@*

 

[NDPhilly]

ACC Network had the 2008 UNC/ND game on this morning. What an absolutely brutal ending to that game. Really forgot how much of a statue Clausen was.