Nov 27 | North Carolina

[InKellyWeTrust]

I'm ready to see our defense absolutely throttle somebody again. I know this doesn't seem like the obvious choice for that but this feels like a game that we could dominate if we come out and establish control early. Force them into playing catch up and into a couple turnovers.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

As somebody mentioned above, the defenses they have faced have been pretty awful. They haven't seen anything close to ND's defense yet. They may be in for a wake up call.

 

[arrowryan]

The II podcast brings up a good point, Notre Dame played some shit offenses the first half of the season. They are now playing some good offenses now. I do think the defense is a little tired and the bye week came at a great time. I think a good goal for the defense against UNC would be 28-35 points. The games of 10 points or less are probably over for this season.

 

[BeauBenken]

I think ND has just put greater emphasis on stopping the run by bringing Hamilton closer to the line. He'd shutdown the backend if he dropped more into a centerfielder role this year.

You have to think about it. Our 3rd down D has been great because on obvious passing downs, we lock shit up. And up front we've just been dominant against the run.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

The II podcast brings up a good point, Notre Dame played some shit offenses the first half of the season. They are now playing some good offenses now. I do think the defense is a little tired and the bye week came at a great time. I think a good goal for the defense against UNC would be 28-35 points. The games of 10 points or less are probably over for this season.

Sure but we turned the ball over 3 times against BC, we outgained them by 200 yds, and they had a late garbage TD. And Clemson is Clemson. Our defense is still one of the better units in the country.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Both of UNC’s losses were games where they got behind big early. Not sure about UVA but I know vs FSU that had turnovers including a pick six. In both losses, their offense was potent enough to give them a chance to win in the 4th quarter. I don’t think this is a team that gets blown out by very many teams. ND can be one of those teams provided they play clean w/ zero turnovers & RZ efficiency. If not, they’ll be in a battle until the end & may even get handed their first loss.

UNC has gotten behind big more than a few times.

Trailed 7-31 to Florida State
Trailed 20-41 to Virginia
Trailed 24-45 to Wake Forest

They've managed to muster up the offense to claw their way back into all of those games. However, Florida State (118th), Virginia (94th) and Wake Forest (113th) all rank amongst the worst defenses in CFB. So them surrendering big leads is pretty typical. All three teams are giving up over 30 points per game.

ND is 15th in total defense, giving up just a smidge over 300 yards per game and around half the ppg (16.6) that any of those teams were surrendering.

UNC falls behind against ND, there is no coming back from it.

 

[Irish#1]

This is what I thought, last year before UM....
But seriously, not worried. Completely different mindset for this team. Especially now that they know they can matchup with the Clemsons of the world.

You're not wrong but I bet that UM game goes a lot differently if Notre Dame had cashed in that last possession against Georgia a month before.

Completely agree, but can't help shake the thought of a 2017 Miami/2019 Michigan type letdown on the road. Not saying we would get blown out by UNC, but just a dud of a performance.

This team sees the light at the end of the tunnel. No way they get caught unprepared mentally or physically.

 

[irishtrooper]

I trust Clark Lea. So far UNC has played


Syracuse (T-103rd Dypg)
Boston College (55th Dypg)
Virginia Tech (96th Dypg)
Florida State (T-103rd Dypg)
NC State (98th Dypg)
Virginia (90th Dypg)
Duke (68th Dypg)
Wake Forrest (99th Dypg)

Not exactly world beaters, and Boston College, the best defense they've played, held them to 26 points.

Exactly! Let’s not poop our pants just yet

 

[notredomer23]

Exactly! Let’s not poop our pants just yet

Would you expect anything different?

 

[Irishize]

UNC has gotten behind big more than a few times.

Trailed 7-31 to Florida State
Trailed 20-41 to Virginia
Trailed 24-45 to Wake Forest

They've managed to muster up the offense to claw their way back into all of those games. However, Florida State (118th), Virginia (94th) and Wake Forest (113th) all rank amongst the worst defenses in CFB. So them surrendering big leads is pretty typical. All three teams are giving up over 30 points per game.

ND is 15th in total defense, giving up just a smidge over 300 yards per game and around half the ppg (16.6) that any of those teams were surrendering.

UNC falls behind against ND, there is no coming back from it.

Right. Down at least 3 TDs and they were still able to roar back to make them close & even win one. Your last statement is key. As long as ND doesn’t step on their own dick & pull a Michigan/Miami, they should win.

 

[Irish#1]

Right. Down at least 3 TDs and they were still able to roar back to make them close & even win one. Your last statement is key. As long as ND doesn’t step on their own dick & pull a Michigan/Miami, they should win.

That was against lesser D's that don't have the depth that we have. We are still pretty fresh and play with a lot of energy in the fourth quarter.

 

[Irishize]

That was against lesser D's that don't have the depth that we have. We are still pretty fresh and play with a lot of energy in the fourth quarter.

Agreed. As I’ve said, if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot w/ turnovers, they should win. They can’t afford to turn the ball over multiple times to help level the playing field.

 

[Dizzyphil]

ND coming off a bye is the great x-factor here. I would have liked us to win regardless, but I REALLY like us to win with a week of rest. Lea and the D boys are probably feeling like they have something to prove and the O is finally starting to fire on all cylinders.

I could see this being something like 41-27

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Your close to the line and over the O/U


ND -16
NC +16
O/U 64.5

 

[EvilleIrish]

Your close to the line and over the O/U


ND -16
NC +16
O/U 64.5

Where are you seeing ND -16? It's at 7.

 

[Rogue219]

I trust Clark Lea. So far UNC has played


Syracuse (T-103rd Dypg)
Boston College (55th Dypg)
Virginia Tech (96th Dypg)
Florida State (T-103rd Dypg)
NC State (98th Dypg)
Virginia (90th Dypg)
Duke (68th Dypg)
Wake Forrest (99th Dypg)

Not exactly world beaters, and Boston College, the best defense they've played, held them to 26 points.

True, but I have to laugh because this is basically ND's schedule past and future. ND has Cuse and Wake coming up.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Where are you seeing ND -16? It's at 7.

my bad - pulled from wrong game



It is -7 right now.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Does anyone have a report on Ademilola yet?

 

[rtrn2glory]

Looking at their schedule, it looks like the play much better at home. This game is a 12.5 - 15 point spread if it were home, but in chapel hill, we could be in for a dog fight. Just win baby!!

 

[EvilleIrish]

What in the world is going on with this line? It jumped from 7 to 9 this morning and now it’s back down to 4.5

 

[Irish YJ]

What in the world is going on with this line? It jumped from 7 to 9 this morning and now it’s back down to 4.5

-3.5 now.

keep in mind though it's actually the first official day of most lines. there's almost always movement early. i'm sure the news of Kramer impacted things

i'd bet the money starts to flow ND's way, and you see it jump a few by tomorrow, and perhaps creep up more though the week.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I just saw the news about TK. UGH! Prior, my instinct was run the damn ball, eat clock, score in the redzone, keep their offense off the field and ND would win easily. Now this might be a shootout. We'll see.

 

[arrowryan]

I just saw the news about TK. UGH! Prior, my instinct was run the damn ball, eat clock, score in the redzone, keep their offense off the field and ND would win easily. Now this might be a shootout. We'll see.

Notre Dame will still be able to run the ball

 

[Jimmy3Putt]

They need to pound the ball, play action to the bigs, and wear the Tar Heal defense out. It might not be the well orchestrated display of the past few weeks, but this line is still a force.

I trust Lea to make enough stops for us to win.

 

[rtrn2glory]

game week so my natural pessimism is starting to kick in. is there a reason that I shouldn't be?

 

[NewEnglandGuy]

game week so my natural pessimism is starting to kick in. is there a reason that I shouldn't be?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNC?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNC</a> QB Sam Howell on facing Notre Dame: "Yeah we definitely have a lot of confidence that we can score as many points as it takes to win. We are going to have a really good plan..."</p>— Ross Martin (@RossMartin_IC) <a href="https://twitter.com/RossMartin_IC/status/1330642726669443073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 22, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It’s likely a close game where either offense could score at anytime. So, faith our QB continues to play his best football. Ian Book is a winner. And Clark Lea with our defensive personal is better than any material UNCs offense has seen this year. That should help when it gets tight.

UNC had 16 possessions against Wake to score 59. It included 4 punts, an INT, downs, FG, and end of game clock burn. For context, we held Clemson to 11 possessions. So if we hold UNC to 10 or so as we grind their D with the run and they punt a few of them, can they be turnover free and bat 1000% in the red zone with the rest?

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

game week so my natural pessimism is starting to kick in. is there a reason that I shouldn't be?

I was just thinking the same thing. I think our defense will be up to the challenge but we had better be able to put points up.

 

[EvilleIrish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNC?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNC</a> QB Sam Howell on facing Notre Dame: "Yeah we definitely have a lot of confidence that we can score as many points as it takes to win. We are going to have a really good plan..."</p>— Ross Martin (@RossMartin_IC) <a href="https://twitter.com/RossMartin_IC/status/1330642726669443073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 22, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It’s likely a close game where either offense could score at anytime. So, faith our QB continues to play his best football. Ian Book is a winner. And Clark Lea with our defensive personal is better than any material UNCs offense has seen this year. That should help when it gets tight.

UNC had 16 possessions against Wake to score 59. It included 4 punts, an INT, downs, FG, and end of game clock burn. For context, we held Clemson to 11 possessions. So if we hold UNC to 10 or so as we grind their D with the run and they punt a few of them, can they be turnover free and bat 1000% in the red zone with the rest?

Touchdowns are an absolute must in the RZ this week.

 

[Free Manera]

If this wasn't coming off a bye, I would be concerned about this game. But here are the facts:

1. 2 OL down, but 2 weeks to get the backups ready.
2. Clark Lea had 2 weeks to prepare for UNC's vaunted offense
3. UNC can't tackle, fill gaps, or defend passes (i.e. their defense is turrible (Barkley voice).
4. Book is good now.
5. The D is rested up after looking tired last week. Hayes is literally leaner and also meaner than ever.
6. Skwronek and McKinley are wardaddies now, to go along with Mayer and Williams who were already wardaddies.

This game could still end up being a shootout I guess, but I think ND keeps them under 35 which should be perfectly fine to win the game. I also think UNC's defense effectively quits by the 4th quarter after getting physically demolished for the first 3. Williams and Tyree run for 8 yards a clip down the stretch to seal the deal.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNC?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNC</a> QB Sam Howell on facing Notre Dame: "Yeah we definitely have a lot of confidence that we can score as many points as it takes to win. We are going to have a really good plan..."</p>— Ross Martin (@RossMartin_IC) <a href="https://twitter.com/RossMartin_IC/status/1330642726669443073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 22, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It’s likely a close game where either offense could score at anytime. So, faith our QB continues to play his best football. Ian Book is a winner. And Clark Lea with our defensive personal is better than any material UNCs offense has seen this year. That should help when it gets tight.

UNC had 16 possessions against Wake to score 59. It included 4 punts, an INT, downs, FG, and end of game clock burn. For context, we held Clemson to 11 possessions. So if we hold UNC to 10 or so as we grind their D with the run and they punt a few of them, can they be turnover free and bat 1000% in the red zone with the rest?

We'll see how that plan holds up.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I know there's been a lot of talk about Howell and his weapons but I do want to point one thing out. Not that QBR is the end-all, be-all, but:

Howell's QBR: 78.0 (22nd)
Book's QBR: 84.6 (16th)

HOwell is still a bit turnover prone, 6 INTs on the year. I, too, trust Clark Lea to dial up enough stops and I think Book, Rees and co. will continue to stay hot. We will outscore this team.