Mike Elko - Defensive Coordinator

[koonja]

What I keep hearing from Whiskey is that we're turning into a football program made of a bunch of flamers with really good grades and low paid coaches that are here out of charity.

I could really use some Bogs optimism right now TBH.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I disagree that he is worth 2 wins. I mentioned earlier that teams are going to have a full year of film now. I would be very surprised if our defense performed significantly better than it did this year. He is a good coach, but we gave up like 35 or something to his former team. That tells me a lot.

I agree that 2 wins is probably an aggressive estimate of his 2018 delta, but his previous teams have made significant jumps in years 2 and 3 under his system. Our defense likely would have been very good next season and borderline elite in 2019 had he stayed. Now our reasonable best case scenario is slight improvement next year in anticipation of solid jump in 2019.

And I don't think the Wake Forest game is that damning. They were sneaky good on offense (23rd offense in S&P+), and they were intimately familiar with Elko's system and his tendencies.

 

[gkIrish]

He improved at Wake every year. And they had film there, too.

What your saying could be true, but Elko's history supports the opposite progression.

They'd have a full year on film, but ND was still in the basics of Elko's defense, and with zero serviceable safeties to boot.

Adding more complexities (which he is obviously capable of teaching, based on past success) and injecting more talent across the board (which this recruiting class absolutely took care of) probably results in better results over the next two or three years.

I personally did not watch our season this year and think our defense was that great. Pretty much anyone could have come in here and made the defense look better than it did last year. Georgia would have put up a lot more points on us if it wasn't Frohms first game. We looked impressive against USC and NC State. But otherwise what great offense did we hold back? Stanford and Miami put up 35+ each. In what road game (where you don't have crowd noise and adrenaline in your favor) did we shut a good offense down (MSU was ranked 91st in total offense)?

I am not trying to say Elko is not a good coach. What I'm saying is he hasn't proven that he is worth being paid top 3 money.

 

[BeatSC]

Sorry, can't wait to see Jumbo and Elko exposed next year.....Just something else to pay attention to in CFB. When do we think we'll know who the new guy will be? do we think Elston and Lea will split if they don't get it? Can we drop an extra $100K on them to make sure they stay?

 

[zelezo vlk]

Hey Crus my man, please be more respectful of those of us who are pretending to do work.

 

[NorthDakota]

I personally did not watch our season this year and think our defense was that great. Pretty much anyone could have come in here and made the defense look better than it did last year. Georgia would have put up a lot more points on us if it wasn't Frohms first game. We looked impressive against USC and NC State. But otherwise what great offense did we hold back? Stanford and Miami put up 35+ each. In what road game (where you don't have crowd noise and adrenaline in your favor) did we shut a good offense down (MSU was ranked 91st in total offense)?

I am not trying to say Elko is not a good coach. What I'm saying is he hasn't proven that he is worth being paid top 3 money.

Stanford got pretty good field position a few times yeah?

Same with Miami... plus a pick six.

 

[koonja]

I personally did not watch our season this year and think our defense was that great. Pretty much anyone could have come in here and made the defense look better than it did last year. Georgia would have put up a lot more points on us if it wasn't Frohms first game. We looked impressive against USC and NC State. But otherwise what great offense did we hold back? Stanford and Miami put up 35+ each. In what road game (where you don't have crowd noise and adrenaline in your favor) did we shut a good offense down (MSU was ranked 91st in total offense)?

I am not trying to say Elko is not a good coach. What I'm saying is he hasn't proven that he is worth being paid top 3 money.

There's a reason Jimbo Fisher went HAM after Elko. He's coached against him for 3 years.

 

[gkIrish]

I agree that 2 wins is probably an aggressive estimate of his 2018 delta, but his previous teams have made significant jumps in years 2 and 3 under his system. Our defense likely would have been very good next season and borderline elite in 2019 had he stayed. Now our reasonable best case scenario is slight improvement next year in anticipation of solid jump in 2019.

And I don't think the Wake Forest game is that damning. They were sneaky good on offense (23rd offense in S&P+), and they were intimately familiar with Elko's system and his tendencies.

I think your second point is what concerns me a bit. We play a lot of the same teams again next year and as they become more familiar with him and his tendencies they could perform better.

History does support the idea that we will improve. However I just don't feel like he has proved enough to be worth engaging in a bidding war.

 

[BobbyMac]

I agree that 2 wins is probably an aggressive estimate of his 2018 delta, but his previous teams have made significant jumps in years 2 and 3 under his system. Our defense likely would have been very good next season and borderline elite in 2019 had he stayed. Now our reasonable best case scenario is slight improvement next year in anticipation of solid jump in 2019.

And I don't think the Wake Forest game is that damning. They were sneaky good on offense (23rd offense in S&P+), and they were intimately familiar with Elko's system and his tendencies.

Plus a 22 y/o 5th year QB that was #10 in QBR nationally. ND could hire Wofford as a defensive coach, he knows that system better than anyone this side of Cohen/Elko/Lea

 

[NDohio]

Because the players are players. They're participating in an extracurricular activity. The coaches are going to work.

From a personal opinion standpoint I agree with you completely. However, the drum for player compensation gets beaten louder and louder every year. These salaries will be another point of contention with those that are on the side of paying players.

 

[BobbyMac]

Hey Crus my man, please be more respectful of those of us who are pretending to do work.

 

[arahop]

You don't set a precedent that you will match any offer. Whether we like it or not ND is only going to spend X amount of dollars on the football program because ND is fiscally responsible and has a budget/plan. TAMU clearly doesn't have fiscal responsibility (see Jimbo's contract) Every penny that ND pays a coordinator is a penny that won't be used elsewhere. It could be that 3-4 position coaches don't get a raise. It could be that the players get flank steak instead of Filet Mignon. Maybe we can't send out those fancy graphics to recruits. We don't know.

The point is it's not that simple. ND isn't going to take 500,000 from some academic fund and give that to Elko. You might think they can get a booster to pay it but then what if they need that booster next year for something more important and he is like Fuck Off? It's not our money until ticket llprices go up again or ND does something else that affects our pockets.

If you want ND to start throwing money around causally (who knows what the final amount would have been) you are probably a fan of the wrong school. I am all for spending money smartly and in ways that will help ND football long term, but I don't think engaging in a bidding war for a coach that is good but was willing to leave after one year is the place to spend it.

Fiscal responsibility?
Yeah, I root for my team that is the second most profitable in the sport to look to budget that 300-500 grand. Get that out of here. if they use just a small perecentage of football profits alone that's how you can justify it.


The administration and ADs have been behind the times for 25 years. Alabama spends the most money on their program in the country. I see the correlation with success on the football field. We have way more resources than Alabama. Why not spend top dollar?
In turn this will be even more lucrative.

 

[indianamouse]

From a personal opinion standpoint I agree with you completely. However, the drum for player compensation gets beaten louder and louder every year. These salaries will be another point of contention with those that are on the side of paying players.

Pay the players if you get rid of full ride scholarships. If they get paid, they should have to pay their way through college. Use the scholarship funds on other things.

 

[koonja]

Pay the players if you get rid of full ride scholarships. If they get paid, they should have to pay their way through college. Use the scholarship funds on other things.

I hope not, as who's going to drop $~40K a year to come to ND when they can go win a championship at OSU for ~$8K out of pocket?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I think your second point is what concerns me a bit. We play a lot of the same teams again next year and as they become more familiar with him and his tendencies they could perform better.

History does support the idea that we will improve. However I just don't feel like he has proved enough to be worth engaging in a bidding war.

I agree that Jack was right not to engage in the bidding war. I'm just not ready to shrug off the impact of his departure or what he accomplished this year.

In 2009, our defensive efficiency ranked 75th. In Diaco's first season, it jumped to 11th, followed by 18th and 14th performances in 2011 and 2012 (which plummeted to 49th in 2013 when he lost interest and started looking for the exits).

First year of BVG we ranked 79th, followed by a modest jump to 58th, and then a final regression to 63rd in 2016 which led to his (and nearly Kelly's) firing.

We just finished 21st in defensive efficiency after a single year with Elko's system. Nearly as large a jump as Diaco's first year. And I think we likely would have seen similar improvements in year 2 and 3 under Elko, ending with an elite top-10 unit in 2019.

So I do think his departure is a significant loss for us. But I'm also glad Jack didn't get into a bidding war for his services.

 

[indianamouse]

I hope not, as who's going to drop $~40K a year to come to ND when they can go win a championship at OSU for ~$8K out of pocket?

At the same time, why go to Notre Dame and struggle through school when I can get a free ride to Michigan and take basket weaving?

 

[Irish#1]

I disagree that he is worth 2 wins. I mentioned earlier that teams are going to have a full year of film now. I would be very surprised if our defense performed significantly better than it did this year. He is a good coach, but we gave up like 35 or something to his former team. That tells me a lot.

And I could counter. Now that the team has a year of experience under it's belt, Elko could start installing more of his defensive playbook which he had already mentioned.

 

[gkIrish]

I agree that Jack was right not to engage in the bidding war. I'm just not ready to shrug off the impact of his departure or what he accomplished this year.

In 2009, our defensive efficiency ranked 75th. In Diaco's first season, it jumped to 11th, followed by 18th and 14th performances in 2011 and 2012 (which plummeted to 49th in 2013 when he lost interest and started looking for the exits).

First year of BVG we ranked 79th, followed by a modest jump to 58th, and then a final regression to 63rd in 2016 which led to his (and nearly Kelly's) firing.

We just finished 21st in defensive efficiency after a single year with Elko's system. Nearly as large a jump as Diaco's first year. And I think we likely would have seen similar improvements in year 2 and 3 under Elko, ending with an elite top-10 unit in 2019.

So I do think his departure is a significant loss for us. But I'm also glad Jack didn't get into a bidding war for his services.

to be clear, I'm not shrugging off his departure. I respect his coaching ability and recruiting prowess. What I'm not willing to do is proclaim him a top 3 DC and predict our defensive doom going forward. We are just going to have to see.

 

[koonja]

On the bidding war - Mike Frank made this point over at ISD.

We just risked $30 million to save $500K. This team next year with Elko and other coordinators in their 2nd year, was a 10 win floor team most likely. Now who knows what happens to the defense. If the defense sucks again like it did before Elko got here, now Kelly is getting fired and buying out him and his whole staff will cost $20-$30 million.

The numbers may be inflated, but one hell of a way of looking at it.

 

[gkIrish]

On the bidding war - Mike Frank made this point over at ISD.

We just risked $30 million to save $500K. This team next year with Elko and other coordinators in their 2nd year, was a 10 win floor team most likely. Now who knows what happens to the defense. If the defense sucks again like it did before Elko got here, now Kelly is getting fired and buying out him and his whole staff will cost $20-$30 million.

The numbers may be inflated, but one hell of a way of looking at it.

You/Mike Frank think 10 wins was our FLOOR next year??? Buckle up your seatbelt lol

 

[koonja]

You/Mile Frank think 10 wins is our FLOOR next year??? Buckle up your seatbelt lol

With Elko and Coney/Tillery back, and maybe even just Tillery? 9 wins I'd say, yeah.

 

[IrishLion]

On the bidding war - Mike Frank made this point over at ISD.

We just risked $30 million to save $500K. This team next year with Elko and other coordinators in their 2nd year, was a 10 win floor team most likely. Now who knows what happens to the defense. If the defense sucks again like it did before Elko got here, now Kelly is getting fired and buying out him and his whole staff will cost $20-$30 million.

The numbers may be inflated, but one hell of a way of looking at it.

If we're being honest, though, the program itself shouldn't be in a position where losing one coordinator is going to result in everyone getting fired.

That's for a program like LSU, where they dump uneccesary money on Aranda because they don't have faith in the money they spent on Orgeron.

 

[koonja]

If we're being honest, though, the program itself shouldn't be in a position where losing one coordinator is going to result in everyone getting fired.

That's for a program like LSU, where they dump uneccesary money on Aranda because they don't have faith in the money they spent on Orgeron.

It shouldn't be, but it was with Elko. He's by far the best coach on the team and the only one capable of making sure we don't get embarassed.

 

[IrishLax]

On the bidding war - Mike Frank made this point over at ISD.

We just risked $30 million to save $500K. This team next year with Elko and other coordinators in their 2nd year, was a 10 win floor team most likely. Now who knows what happens to the defense. If the defense sucks again like it did before Elko got here, now Kelly is getting fired and buying out him and his whole staff will cost $20-$30 million.

The numbers may be inflated, but one hell of a way of looking at it.

This is the most on point Mike Frank has ever been about anything. It's not going to cost $20-30 mil, but in general the logic is perfect... over what amounts to a rounding error, we're putting the whole operation at risk. That means they weren't really committed to this "rebuild" with Kelly or they made the move strictly on principle or they completely screwed up the negotiations from the jump.

 

[gkIrish]

With Elko and Coney/Tillery back, and maybe even just Tillery? 9 wins I'd say, yeah.

Have you looked at the schedule? Serious question.

 

[IrishLion]

It shouldn't be, but it was with Elko. He's by far the best coach on the team and the only one capable of making sure we don't get embarassed.

Right, but if the system is so fragile that the d-coordinator is the one holding it together, is there really a right answer?

I wish they would've spent the cash to keep him btw, just spitballing about what this means at large, and pointing out that failing to pay $300k or not, millions of dollars are already at risk if it's being held together by one coordinator that's only been around for a year.

 

[koonja]

Have you looked at the schedule? Serious question.

Yeah. I think our QB situation would improve by default, our OL will be great again, and our defense would be top 5 in the country. We had arguably the best DC and very likely returning 8 starters.

Michigan - Push
Stanford - Win
At VT - Push
FSU - Push
At USC - Loss

And with Elko, you don't have "WTF" losses IMO.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The numbers may be inflated, but one hell of a way of looking at it.

The numbers aren't accurate because that would not have been TAMU's final bid for Elko. And even though the logic checks out, it doesn't account for the fallout that would ensue after setting such a precedent.

Keep in mind that ND gave him an elite contact when he was hired. Raised him after the bowl game, and then again to counter TAMU's first offer. When he came back asking for even more, Swarbrick's top concern was likely getting this mercenary asshole off his payroll.

 

[gkIrish]

Yeah. I think our QB situation would improve by default, our OL will be great again, and our defense would be top 5 in the country. We had arguably the best DC and very likely returning 8 starters.

Michigan - Push
Stanford - Win
At VT - Push
FSU - Push
At USC - Loss

And with Elko, you don't have "WTF" losses IMO.

This is getting OT now so I'm not going to respond other than to disagree with your assessment as strongly as possible. There are like 9 toss up ish games on the schedule next year.

 

[gkIrish]

0

The numbers aren't accurate because that would not have been TAMU's final bid for Elko. And even though the logic checks out, it doesn't account for the fallout that would ensue after setting such a precedent.

Keep in mind that ND gave him elite contact when he was hired. Raised him after the bowl game, and then again to counter TAMU's first offer. When he came back asking for even more, Swarbrick's top concern was likely getting this mercenary asshole off his payroll.

We are both lawyers who deal with contracts on a daily basis and I cosign this. Negotiations are not made in vacuum.