Looking to 2019

[IrishLax]

Yeah, I don't get all the concern about OL either. We'll have four returning starters. Lots of talent. They were OK this season - not great by our standards, but OK - and should be better with another year playing together.

Linebacker and RB are the positions I'm worried about, and whether Book can get to the next level at QB.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. They were by far the worst position group on the team. They ranked 105th in the country (outside of the top 100! seriously!) by Football Outsiders advanced stats.

 

[BobbyMac]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. They were by far the worst position group on the team. They ranked 105th in the country (outside of the top 100! seriously!) by Football Outsiders advanced stats.

But what metrics are you using to rank them last behind NEXT YEAR'S LB or RB groups?

 

[Irish YJ]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. They were by far the worst position group on the team. They ranked 105th in the country (outside of the top 100! seriously!) by Football Outsiders advanced stats.

I have the same pills I think. Advanced stats and "eye test" tell me the exact same thing.

 

[IrishLax]

But what metrics are you using to rank them last behind NEXT YEAR'S LB or RB groups?

It's not like I don't have those groups next to last and haven't talked about how much we are in dire need of RB talent.

At RB, Jafar Armstrong isn't the 105th best RB in the country so I put that group a notch ahead.

At LB, replacing Coney will be REALLY difficult but some combination of Bilal/Simon/Allen/JGH at the other two spots should be very good. I put the odds higher on finding a competent MIKE than the OL drastically improving with all of the same players.

 

[Irish YJ]

Hot off the presses after the NC...

scUM 14-1 LOL. Nebraska? Wut?

Odds To Win 2020 National Championship At Westgate SuperBook

TEAM JAN. 7 ODDS
Clemson Tigers +180
Alabama Crimson Tide +250
Ohio State Buckeyes 12-1
Georgia Bulldogs 12-1
Michigan Wolverines 14-1
Oklahoma Sooners 15-1
Texas Longhorns 20-1
Nebraska Cornhuskers 25-1
Washington Huskies 25-1
Florida Gators 25-1
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 25-1

 

[Crazy Balki]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. They were by far the worst position group on the team. They ranked 105th in the country (outside of the top 100! seriously!) by Football Outsiders advanced stats.

If you actually believe they were one of the worst units in the country, then yes, I would argue you are on some form of mind-altering substance.

105th? Any person who actually watched the OL play this year could tell you that they were a solid bunch. Not great by any stretch, but far, far, FAR from one of the worst units in the country.

To make such an insanely ridiculous claim is quite astounding. Basically claiming that there are 104 units in the country that were better up front than ND. If that's what their analysis showed, then perhaps they should watch the tape again, preferably without meth in their system.

Laughable to say the least.

 

[Irish#1]

DT is fine next year. Lacey will likely be ready to play some minutes, and then you have Hinish and MTA to go with Jayson Ademilola. You're 4 deep with at least 3 guys we know will be quality players. The interior pass rush won't be as good as it was with Tillery, but they're be very solid. With the kind of pass rushers ND will have at DE... and how some of those can get shifted inside on clear passing downs... I'm not worried about the front 4 at all.

The big problem is offense. Basically everyone needs to get way better at every single spot. If you ranked the talent of ND's positions in order from best to worst it probably goes.

DE
TE
S
CB
QB
DT
WR
RB
LB
OL

I don't see OL as the worst position. Even though these guys were highly ranked, we had a young line. That's the one are that takes the longest to develop. With this experience I think their play will be much better next year. If they don't, then BK will be looking for Quinn's replacement.

 

[Irish#1]

We just didn't know it.

Apparently no one knew it.

 

[NDohio]

Slow being he never even came close to taking one to the house and isn't really a threat to do so, we need someone back their with elite speed, Lenzy, Keys someone like that.

Do you know how many touchdowns the top punt returner in the country had?

 

[stlnd01]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. They were by far the worst position group on the team. They ranked 105th in the country (outside of the top 100! seriously!) by Football Outsiders advanced stats.

What Balki and #1 said.

I am by no means an offensive line guru, and I certainly agree they could have been better, especially in the running game. They may have even been the worst position group on the team in 2018 (though 105th nationally seems harsh for a group that was middle of the pack in both yards per carry and sacks allowed).

But we're talking about a young line that lost its best player mid-season. Four come back next year and they're all high four-star talents. No reason to think they won't improve with another season playing together.

I'm a lot more confident in what we've got at O Line next year than at linebacker or running back after Jafar Armstrong.

 

[NDdomer2]

its like were completely dismissing the fact we lost Bars week 1. Not exactly easy to have prepared a back up for your best OL by week 1.

 

[zelezo vlk]

its like were completely dismissing the fact we lost Bars week 4. Not exactly easy to have prepared a back up for your best OL by week 4.

FTFY

 

[Crazy Balki]

What Balki and #1 said.

I am by no means an offensive line guru, and I certainly agree they could have been better, especially in the running game. They may have even been the worst position group on the team in 2018 (though 105th nationally seems harsh for a group that was middle of the pack in both yards per carry and sacks allowed).

But we're talking about a young line that lost its best player mid-season. Four come back next year and they're all high four-star talents. No reason to think they won't improve with another season playing together.

I'm a lot more confident in what we've got at O Line next year than at linebacker or running back after Jafar Armstrong.

105th being harsh is an understatement. It's downright asinine.

In addition, stats don't really do the OL justice. Sacks allowed in particular don't tell the whole story. ND's protection was excellent practically all season. It was even solid against Clemson, who has the best DL in the country by very wide margin. A lot of the sacks this season fell entirely on Book. I like Ian, and I think he's a good QB (with the potential to be a lot better), but he's got a lot of things he has to work on. In particular, Book has to know when to bail and when stand pat. Too many times this season he would lean into a sack or bail out and run right into a defender's arms. In addition, there was also several times this year where Book was slow recognizing the open man downfield and some of those resulted in sacks or pressures that were unnecessary. Can't fault the OL when the QB needs to have better awareness. Not to throw shade at Book, because he's still learning, but that definitely played a factor that hurt the OL's perception.

 

[IrishLax]

If you actually believe they were one of the worst units in the country, then yes, I would argue you are on some form of mind-altering substance.

105th? Any person who actually watched the OL play this year could tell you that they were a solid bunch. Not great by any stretch, but far, far, FAR from one of the worst units in the country.

To make such an insanely ridiculous claim is quite astounding. Basically claiming that there are 104 units in the country that were better up front than ND. If that's what their analysis showed, then perhaps they should watch the tape again, preferably without meth in their system.

Laughable to say the least.

My statement is backed up by the most objective offensive line grading system that's out there. If you want to provide any advanced statistical evidence to the contrary I'm all ears.

On top of that, looking at individual players not a single one of ND's starters except Mustipher even graded out in the top 50 at their position by PFF. So zero top 50 returning players on a unit that graded out 106th in adjusted line yards, 120th in passing down line yards, 112th in opportunity rate, and 121st in stuff rate. The only things they were decent at were running power (78.3% success rate, 23rd in the country) and not giving up sacks (which can be attributed at least partially to Book's mobility and ability to get the ball out quickly).

So those are my facts. What are yours besides your "eye test?" And did you play offensive line or do you coach offensive line?

 

[IrishLax]

105th being harsh is an understatement. It's downright asinine.

In addition, stats don't really do the OL justice. Sacks allowed in particular don't tell the whole story. ND's protection was excellent practically all season. It was even solid against Clemson, who has the best DL in the country by very wide margin. A lot of the sacks this season fell entirely on Book. I like Ian, and I think he's a good QB (with the potential to be a lot better), but he's got a lot of things he has to work on. In particular, Book has to know when to bail and when stand pat. Too many times this season he would lean into a sack or bail out and run right into a defender's arms. In addition, there was also several times this year where Book was slow recognizing the open man downfield and some of those resulted in sacks or pressures that were unnecessary. Can't fault the OL when the QB needs to have better awareness. Not to throw shade at Book, because he's still learning, but that definitely played a factor that hurt the OL's perception.

LOL OK I'm done. That is just a flat out lie, and there is no point in continuing here. It is clear as day from week 1 against Michigan to the season finale against Clemson that ND was -- at best -- inconsistent in pass protection.

Book and the quick passing game is the only reason the numbers aren't WORSE.

 

[BobbyMac]

My statement is backed up by the most objective offensive line grading system that's out there. If you want to provide any advanced statistical evidence to the contrary I'm all ears.

On top of that, looking at individual players not a single one of ND's starters except Mustipher even graded out in the top 50 at their position by PFF. So zero top 50 returning players on a unit that graded out 106th in adjusted line yards, 120th in passing down line yards, 112th in opportunity rate, and 121st in stuff rate. The only things they were decent at were running power (78.3% success rate, 23rd in the country) and not giving up sacks (which can be attributed at least partially to Book's mobility and ability to get the ball out quickly).

So those are my facts. What are yours besides your "eye test?" And did you play offensive line or do you coach offensive line?

Would you trade straight up for the MAC OL's that finished ahead of them? What about App St's line? They were a Moore Trophy finalist, would you trade straight up for them?

How many OL groups would you trade for straight up in the country going into next year?

 

[IrishLax]

Would you trade straight up for the MAC OL's that finished ahead of them? What about App St's line? They were a Moore Trophy finalist, would you trade straight up for them?

How many OL groups would you trade for straight up in the country going into next year?

I don't know enough about other teams' personnel to project going into next year. Given a "redo" on 2018, without spending too much time to look through who is actually I'd probably trade the OL for any P5 OL in the top 50 and any G5* OL in the top 20 without a second thought. *Exception is service academies or anyone who doesn't run a scheme that translates to ND.

ND's OL isn't 105th on talent or upside, they were 105th in how they produced on the field last year. I say that without bias or prejudice... it's just the facts. That doesn't mean facts aren't flawed sometimes, for example Trevor Lawrence finished 6th in QBR with Ian Book 7th but anyone with a brain knows how transcendent Lawrence is and what limitations Book has. Justin Herbert was 21st... would I trade Book for Herbert looking ahead to 2019 even though Book had a better 2018? Probably.

Also, let's be real they were a Moore semifinalist based on their reputation and Aaron Taylor.

 

[Irish#1]

LOL OK I'm done. That is just a flat out lie, and there is no point in continuing here. It is clear as day from week 1 against Michigan to the season finale against Clemson that ND was -- at best -- inconsistent in pass protection.

Book and the quick passing game is the only reason the numbers aren't WORSE.

There are stats and then there are stats. We were spoiled by last year. I won't disagree that we had better expectations for the line this year, but losing Barrs was huge and these guys didn't have that much experience. I'm more worried about the LB positions for next year more than the O-line.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I don't know enough about other teams' personnel to project going into next year. Given a "redo" on 2018, without spending too much time to look through who is actually I'd probably trade the OL for any P5 OL in the top 50 and any G5* OL in the top 20 without a second thought. *Exception is service academies or anyone who doesn't run a scheme that translates to ND.

ND's OL isn't 105th on talent or upside, they were 105th in how they produced on the field last year. I say that without bias or prejudice... it's just the facts. That doesn't mean facts aren't flawed sometimes, for example Trevor Lawrence finished 6th in QBR with Ian Book 7th but anyone with a brain knows how transcendent Lawrence is and what limitations Book has. Justin Herbert was 21st... would I trade Book for Herbert looking ahead to 2019 even though Book had a better 2018? Probably.

Also, let's be real they were a Moore semifinalist based on their reputation and Aaron Taylor.

When you look at the rankings they had for ND's line in 2017 do you consider those accurate?

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Who ends up being Notre Dame's best player in 2019?
I'll take Okwara
Darkhorse: Austin
Best scenario for ND to get to next level: PJurcovec

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Lax what about player development, experience and cohesiveness of the offensive line as a unit? Eichenberg 1st year starter. Aaron Banks 1st year starter. Tommy Kramer 1st year as a full time starter 2nd year of significant playing time. Hainsey 1st year as a full time starter 2nd year of significant playing time

You are telling us that a year of experience for all these young guys + working together as a unit in the spring + working together as a unit during fall practice + an off season of strength and conditioning with how highly ranked those guys are that it's the worst position unit for Notre Dame in 2019?

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Lax what about player development, experience and cohesiveness of the offensive line as a unit? Eichenberg 1st year starter. Aaron Banks 1st year starter. Tommy Kramer 1st year as a full time starter 2nd year of significant playing time. Hainsey 1st year as a full time starter 2nd year of significant playing time

You are telling us that a year of experience for all these young guys + working together as a unit in the spring + working together as a unit during fall practice + an off season of strength and conditioning with how highly ranked those guys are that it's the worst position unit for Notre Dame in 2019?

Agree with all of this. There is no way the offensive line is the worst position group next year returning 4 starters with depth, talent, and more reps. I think the struggles this year by the oline were a little overblown and they will be significantly better next year. It will probably end up being a top 25-30ish group. If not, we will have a new oline coach for 2020.

 

[Luckylucci]

Lax what about player development, experience and cohesiveness of the offensive line as a unit? Eichenberg 1st year starter. Aaron Banks 1st year starter. Tommy Kramer 1st year as a full time starter 2nd year of significant playing time. Hainsey 1st year as a full time starter 2nd year of significant playing time

You are telling us that a year of experience for all these young guys + working together as a unit in the spring + working together as a unit during fall practice + an off season of strength and conditioning with how highly ranked those guys are that it's the worst position unit for Notre Dame in 2019?

If there is any position group where this is extremely important, it's OL. We've seen a majority of our past NFL OL start peaking as 4th and 5th year guys in the program. I see no reason to completely discount that now. Gotta give Quinn more than 1 season to work with a bunch of sophomores and juniors before writing off his lack of ability to develop players. Maybe it never happens, that could be an outcome but it wouldn't the first time we see stark improvement from OL as upperclassmen.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

1) Dline should be elite
2) Secondary should be very good to great
3) Wrs are a bit of a wild card but I think will be very good
4) QB is at least good with potential to ge great.
5) Oline is average at worst with potential to be great.
6) LBs are unknown at this point with wide range of potential, so I put them here
7) RBs are below average unless someone emerges or Kelly finds the right mix of skill sets to augment the position as a whole.
STs/kicking complete wild card for me so I cant even try to rank.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

If there is any position group where this is extremely important, it's OL. We've seen a majority of our past NFL OL start peaking as 4th and 5th year guys in the program. I see no reason to completely discount that now. Gotta give Quinn more than 1 season to work with a bunch of sophomores and juniors before writing off his lack of ability to develop players. Maybe it never happens, that could be an outcome but it wouldn't the first time we see stark improvement from OL as upperclassmen.

This is where I'm at. I believe we fielded the youngest OL in Kelly's tenure. We normally have 3+ seniors or 5th years on our starting OL with FR-JR sprinkled in.

We should see a big statistical jump next season (in the top 50 or better across the board is what I hope to see if Quinn is any good).

He'll have an OL of primarily JR/SRs and that's old enough. If we don't see a drastic increase then it'll be major cause for concern.

 

[dublinirish]

This is where I'm at. I believe we fielded the youngest OL in Kelly's tenure. We normally have 3+ seniors or 5th years on our starting OL with FR-JR sprinkled in.

We should see a big statistical jump next season (in the top 50 or better across the board is what I hope to see if Quinn is any good).

He'll have an OL of primarily JR/SRs and that's old enough. If we don't see a drastic increase then it'll be major cause for concern.

HH not the OL coach anymore though. The drastic improvement may not be evident as when he was in charge

 

[koonja]

I've always thought arm strength was overrated in CFB. It matters, but it matters a whole lot more in the NFL.

But man, watching last night's game was sobering. Those two QBs can just rifle it down the field from anywhere, and the ball barely has any travel time.

Book doesn't have a great arm, but it's not bad. But if you watch his deep throws, not only are they not on a rope, they're behind the WR more often than not.

When ND needs every piece they CAN recruit to be rock stars (OL, TE, LBs, QB), that's a limiting factor.

 

[RDU Irish]

1) Dline should be elite
2) Secondary should be very good to great
3) Wrs are a bit of a wild card but I think will be very good
4) QB is at least good with potential to ge great.
5) Oline is average at worst with potential to be great.
6) LBs are unknown at this point with wide range of potential, so I put them here
7) RBs are below average unless someone emerges or Kelly finds the right mix of skill sets to augment the position as a whole.
STs/kicking complete wild card for me so I cant even try to rank.

I think this is pretty fair. If TEs are included in the WR grade I agree. If not, they have the potential to be anywhere from bad to very good which has me placing them at average if assuming - maybe LB/OL/WR very close for spots 4-6 with QB moved up to 3. I think LBs have to be similarly graded since there is a pile of talent there, just unproven.

If Clemson showed us one thing, 5 star WRs can change a game.

 

[SoIll]

any chance we dabble into the grad transfer market (RB specifically)

 

[Sherm Sticky]

If there is any position group where this is extremely important, it's OL. We've seen a majority of our past NFL OL start peaking as 4th and 5th year guys in the program. I see no reason to completely discount that now. Gotta give Quinn more than 1 season to work with a bunch of sophomores and juniors before writing off his lack of ability to develop players. Maybe it never happens, that could be an outcome but it wouldn't the first time we see stark improvement from OL as upperclassmen.

This we can agree on bro.