Yup, MFMF has shown last year that he would start a true freshman at OL if he is ready. Obviously Black isn't there right now
I kind of see it differently. I'm not really sure Steve Elmer was flat better than Quenton Nelson in 2014, or that Tosh Baker and Michael Carmody were really better than Joe Alt at the beginning of 2021. I think most coaches understandably go with the guy with experience most of the time. Experience typically trumps young talent in a lot of head-to-heads when picking starters.
In 2021, neither Baker or Carmody were better than freshman Fisher, but he had a whole Spring to prove it (and Baker was simply not athletic enough). When Fisher went down, they both got shots before Joe Alt.
When the inexperienced are forced to come in, it's usually a rough start and they make a bunch of mistakes but they sometimes emerge as better than the guys who were in front of them. The coaches don't want to take the risk to find that out--I probably wouldn't either--but they don't "know" until the kid gets a chance.