Hurricane (The Cyclone) Season 2017

[ND NYC]

when is UGA football team heading up?

 

[NDohio]

when is UGA football team heading up?

The storm really shouldn't be a factor in their travel plans. It won't hit until after the game is over.

 

[BGIF]

I'm staying put and putting up the shutters and praying.

Elevation 2.95 in Port Orange?

They're saying Cat 3 before it gets to you and no where near the biblical rains that Houston got but your on the coast and low. Good Luck!

 

[Cackalacky]

Where were you for Hugo? About a week or 10 days later I flew into Hickory, NC where we were doing a turnkey project and when I looked out the plane window I commented to the guy next to me, "I had no idea you got hit so badly with tornadoes." "No", he replied, "that's Hugo damage." I noted that I lived in tornado country and twisted tops in multiple spots were telltales of tornadoes that touched down briefly and then moved on. Hurricans can spawn flurries of tornadoes.

I was in the York county area of SC south and adjacent to Mecklenberg. We got crushed. The eye went right up I-77. I was helping my dad remove downed pine trees in our neighborhood up through Jan. Storm was in Sept. I am fairly certain we had multiple tornadoes in and around my area.

Sullivans Island and Charleston was wrecked worse than us.

 

[Cackalacky]

I was in the York county area of SC south and adjacent to Mecklenberg. We got crushed. The eye went right up I-77. I was helping my dad remove downed pine trees in our neighborhood up through Jan. Storm was in Sept. I am fairly certain we had multiple tornadoes in and around my area.

Sullivans Island and Charleston was wrecked worse than us.

Hugo was hauling ass. Like it was really fast for a hurricane. And is was big.

 

[Cackalacky]

You staying put or heading north? Some of these path projections are frightening.

Planning to leave if its greater than a Cat 1. Not screwing around with the kids and wife. We will retreat inland to my wife's family (near Athens, Ga) to avoid flooding and evacuation traffic. Our local water bodies are already maxing out due to the unprecedented rain we have had over the summer. The reservoirs are full and high tide causes general area flooding. My house is at near 10 ft above MSL.

 

[FLDomer]

Elevation 2.95 in Port Orange?

They're saying Cat 3 before it gets to you and no where near the biblical rains that Houston got but your on the coast and low. Good Luck!

We got a lot of rain and a fair amount of wind with Matthew last yr. Stayed pretty dry with no threats of flooding on my property. Some of the older parts of Port Orange are low and tend to get whacked, my place is west of I-95 and tends to drain better.

Also gave a Silverado with an 8in lift and 37 in tires and a boat, so if I need to get around I should be good.

 

[BGIF]

We got a lot of rain and a fair amount of wind with Matthew last yr. Stayed pretty dry with no threats of flooding on my property. Some of the older parts of Port Orange are low and tend to get whacked, my place is west of I-95 and tends to drain better.

Also gave a Silverado with an 8in lift and 37 in tires and a boat, so if I need to get around I should be good.

And ... the models continue to slide to the east. Stay safe.

 

[Cackalacky]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Irma track shifts east after storm passes over St. Martin<a href="https://t.co/kXfuumXvhY">https://t.co/kXfuumXvhY</a></p>— Holy City Sinner (@HolyCitySinner) <a href="https://twitter.com/HolyCitySinner/status/905461688572489728">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[BGIF]

Interesting Read

Interesting Read

Just stumbled across this site. Good commentary on Spaghetti models all are not created equal or are reported on the same time frame, and some aren't models just show historical tracks for storms.

Short article.


https://arstechnica.com/science/201...-sharing-spaghetti-plots-of-hurricane-models/

All forecast models are not created equal.

ERIC BERGER - 9/6/2017, 9:18 AM
Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to wonky NASA policy. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston.

Berger provides graphics with descriptions at the link.

Nate Silver, the statistician and editor of FiveThirtyEight, is unquestionably a smart guy with an exceptionally good grasp of numbers and probability. But he's not a meteorologist. So when he shared a spaghetti plot of models for Hurricane Irma on Tuesday night, I had to shake my head. Just another social mediarologist.

Nate Silver ✔ @NateSilver538
Still some uncertainty in the Hurricane Irma forecast but more and more projections are converging on Florida. http://53eig.ht/2eCB93f
7:34 PM - Sep 5, 2017

Please don't misunderstand me. I am not some kind of meteorologist elitist. Honestly, it doesn't take that much education to have a basic understanding of weather forecasting. And I don't have any problem with people looking at all of the available forecast data to draw their own conclusions about hurricane forecasts and make decisions for their families in the face of a natural disaster.

But spaghetti plots are not good decision-making tools. Sorry, they're just not. To understand why, let's take a look at the models on Nate Silver's plot, which he shared with his 2.5 million followers at 7:34pm ET Tuesday:

XTRP: This is not a model. It is simply a straight-line extrapolation of the storm's current direction at 2pm Tuesday.
TVCN, TVCX: These are useful, as they are consensus forecasts of global model tracks.
NHC: This is the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
TABD, TABM, TABS: These are simple statistical models, which are essentially useless for track forecasting.
NVGM: Useful, but the model is from about 8am ET, or 12 hours before Silver posted the graphic. Wildly out of date.
HMON: This is NOAA's new hurricane model, but it was badly wrong during Hurricane Harvey. Also 12 hours old. Essentially useless.
HWRF: This is NOAA's primary hurricane model, and while it's OK, it is nearly 12 hours old. Not useful.
COTC: A version of the US Navy's global model, which is kind of meh for hurricanes and is 12 hours old.
AVNO, AEMN: Two variants of NOAA's premiere global model, the GFS. Both are worth looking at, but again the forecasts are 12 hours old.
CMC, CEMN: Two variants of the Canadian global model, which is worth looking at, but again the forecasts are 12 hours old.
UKM: The UK Met Office's global model, which is definitely worth looking at. But the forecasts are 12 hours old.
CLP5: Not a model at all. Just a forecast based on where storms in this location historically go.

This is the essential problem with spaghetti plots. To the untrained eye, all models are created equal, when they most certainly are not. Plots like this also often include forecasts that are 12 or more hours old, which is generally out of date when it comes to hurricanes. Finally, the world's most accurate model, the European forecast system, is proprietary and not included on such plots.

So what should you do? First and foremost, pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, which publishes updated track and intensity forecasts every six hours. I know a lot of these forecasters personally, and they are absolute pros without agendas who dedicate their summers to getting these forecasts right. There are no absolutes in track and intensity forecasts, and there is a lot of uncertainty. They understand all of this as well as anyone can.

However, if you really want to dive into the data yourself, here is some general advice. Ignore spaghetti plots. Instead, focus on the global forecast models (i.e., European model, GFS, UK Met, Canadian) and, more specifically, their ensembles. These are the roughly 50 versions of the main, operational model run at a lower resolution, with slightly different initial conditions. Ensemble forecasts provide a good overview of the range of uncertainty, and you'll often find that they line up nicely with the hurricane center's cone of uncertainty.

 

[BGIF]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Irma track shifts east after storm passes over St. Martin<a href="https://t.co/kXfuumXvhY">https://t.co/kXfuumXvhY</a></p>— Holy City Sinner (@HolyCitySinner) <a href="https://twitter.com/HolyCitySinner/status/905461688572489728">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Still looks like Key Largo/Homestead area for PROJECTED Landfall than the track moving off the coast somewhere above the Cape Canaveral bulge.

Then heading north toward the Savannah/Charleston areas.

Still a lot of uncertainty and a lot of time to move ... somewhere.

 

[woolybug25]

If you go to a shelter for #Irma and you have a warrant, we'll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905438093527928834 …

So the Sheriff of Polk county is threatening jail to people with warrants that seek safety. Classy move, hope he can live with himself when people die because they stayed in their home because they feared being arrested.

 

[wizards8507]

So the Sheriff of Polk county is threatening jail to people with warrants that seek safety. Classy move, hope he can live with himself when people die because they stayed in their home because they feared being arrested.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period. <a href="https://t.co/DlhqjqFrkM">https://t.co/DlhqjqFrkM</a></p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905449649204584448">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sounds right to me.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

So the Sheriff of Polk county is threatening jail to people with warrants that seek safety. Classy move, hope he can live with himself when people die because they stayed in their home because they feared being arrested.

I don't disagree with him. I just think it would've been better left unsaid.

 

[woolybug25]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period. <a href="https://t.co/DlhqjqFrkM">https://t.co/DlhqjqFrkM</a></p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905449649204584448">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sounds right to me.

Give me a break, guys that are sexual offenders and predators are different. That is an excuse, not a reason. Why not just arrest anyone with a violent crime warrant (which really? How many are there?) and not pursue people with bench warrants for not paying parking tickets, etc. Again, its a BS rationale for using a huge disaster as an excuse to entrap people. It's going to kill people.

Furthermore, how do they check? Are they going to be checking ID's at the door? If you don't have ID are you just fucked?

 

[BGIF]

Holy Main Street Media! How about printing the entire tweet

Holy Main Street Media! How about printing the entire tweet

If you go to a shelter for #Irma and you have a warrant, we'll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/st...38093527928834 …

So the Sheriff of Polk county is threatening jail to people with warrants that seek safety. Classy move, hope he can live with himself when people die because they stayed in their home because they feared being arrested.

Here's the actual quote time stamped 4 hours before your post. I copied and posted the tweet directly from the link you posted.


Polk County Sheriff ‏Verified account
@PolkCoSheriff
If you go to a shelter for #Irma, be advised: sworn LEOs will be at every shelter, checking IDs. Sex offenders/predators will not be allowed
7:30 AM - 6 Sep 2017


Sex offenders have to stay a specified distance from children, schools, parks, etc. Those that qualify would not be turned out into the storm but they'd be a put in a safe place away from children. After the storm if they in compliance they'd be free to go.

Of course there's that other thing they coulddo, they could call their P.O. or their lawyer to confirm what do, IF in doubt as to their obligations AND rights. They do have up to 5 days in addition to the 5 or so days that have already ticked of the clock. This didn't crop up overnight.

 

[#1rish]

I have 0 problem with what they are doing.

 

[connor_in]

just fyi, here are the actual tweets being referred to

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you go to a shelter for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash">#Irma</a>, be advised: sworn LEOs will be at every shelter, checking IDs. Sex offenders/predators will not be allowed</p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905438093527928834">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you go to a shelter for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash">#Irma</a> and you have a warrant, we'll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail <a href="https://t.co/Qj5GX9XQBi">https://t.co/Qj5GX9XQBi</a></p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905438240278278144">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail - it's a secure shelter <a href="https://t.co/UFNGNafJh8">https://t.co/UFNGNafJh8</a></p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905449395184951296">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period. <a href="https://t.co/DlhqjqFrkM">https://t.co/DlhqjqFrkM</a></p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905449649204584448">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Irish#1]

just fyi, here are the actual tweets being referred to

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you go to a shelter for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash">#Irma</a>, be advised: sworn LEOs will be at every shelter, checking IDs. Sex offenders/predators will not be allowed</p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905438093527928834">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you go to a shelter for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash">#Irma</a> and you have a warrant, we'll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail <a href="https://t.co/Qj5GX9XQBi">https://t.co/Qj5GX9XQBi</a></p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905438240278278144">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail - it's a secure shelter <a href="https://t.co/UFNGNafJh8">https://t.co/UFNGNafJh8</a></p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905449395184951296">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period. <a href="https://t.co/DlhqjqFrkM">https://t.co/DlhqjqFrkM</a></p>— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905449649204584448">September 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I was a juror on a pedophile case years ago. Those creatures don't GAF. Lock 'em up! Better than taking a risk, no matter how low the percentage.

 

[GowerND11]

I was a juror on a pedophile case years ago. Those creatures don't GAF. Lock 'em up! Better than taking a risk, no matter how low the percentage.

Devil's Adovcate... Kid is 18 and has sex with his 16 year old girlfriend in FL. Age of consent is 17 there. If Florida doesn't have a Romeo and Juliet Law, he is a sex offender. Does he really pose a risk to children?

I think a lot of people when they hear sex offender immediately jump to picture these pedophiles. Are they a risk to children? More often than not, absolutely! But what about a guy who now must carry around the label of sex offender when he poses no threat to anyone?

 

[dublinirish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is Barbuda currently from Hurricane Irma, bare in mind the storm hasn't even really begun yet. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/prayfortheCaribbean?src=hash">#prayfortheCaribbean</a> <a href="https://t.co/lOywbYYwuy">pic.twitter.com/lOywbYYwuy</a></p>— Priscilla &#55356;&#56806;&#55356;&#56812;&#55356;&#56806;&#55356;&#56812; (@harryylegend) <a href="https://twitter.com/harryylegend/status/905174758555340800">September 5, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[dshans]

Call me a wimp, if you will, but I'm bailing on Jacksonville Sunday and heading to visit my son, his intended and friends in Minneapolis. I live 3 blocks from the St. John's river and don't need no storm surge messin' wit me.

I dealt with Matthew, but he was a bit of a milquetoast.

Irma is one nasty bitch!

 

[connor_in]

Call me a wimp, if you will, but I'm bailing on Jacksonville Sunday and heading to visit my son, his intended and friends in Minneapolis. I live 3 blocks from the St. John's river and don't need no storm surge messin' wit me.

I dealt with Matthew, but he was a bit of a milquetoast.

Irma is one nasty bitch!

Not a wimp, buddy...stay safe

 

[GowerND11]

Call me a wimp, if you will, but I'm bailing on Jacksonville Sunday and heading to visit my son, his intended and friends in Minneapolis. I live 3 blocks from the St. John's river and don't need no storm surge messin' wit me.

I dealt with Matthew, but he was a bit of a milquetoast.

Irma is one nasty bitch!

I don't blame you one bit! I hope you're belongs are safe, and you have a safe trip up and back!

 

[Cackalacky]

Our schools are closed for Friday, Monday and Tuesday. We are packing up and bolting this weekend. Evacuations are starting Sat if models hold.

Not supposed to hit until Monday pm or Tuesday here. Probably gonna be on shore at around a Cat 2.5-3 south of Charleston so we should get a whacking.

Good luck dshans and all the people in Florida.

 

[ACamp1900]

My family in Tampa decided to ride it out... They were going to evacuate to our family in Texas (go figure) but now they are going to stay.

 

[dshans]

My family in Tampa decided to ride it out... They were going to evacuate to our family in Texas (go figure) but now they are going to stay.

I hope only for the best for them. My twin sister and her husband are extending their stay in Italy.

My older sister and her husband are sticking it out. Godspeed!

I hope that my brother-in-law responded to "suggestions" from my sister after the five day power outage they dealt with during Matthew, and had their generator repaired.

 

[ozzman]

My parents and sisters are all down in SW Miami. Luckily, they're not in an evacuation zone, so flooding shouldn't be a problem. They're hunkering down and riding it out at one of the sister's place. Hope everything stands to those winds. The house my parents are renting already has a crappy roof, that thing is gonna take off. Scary times

 

[Irish#1]

Devil's Adovcate... Kid is 18 and has sex with his 16 year old girlfriend in FL. Age of consent is 17 there. If Florida doesn't have a Romeo and Juliet Law, he is a sex offender. Does he really pose a risk to children?

I think a lot of people when they hear sex offender immediately jump to picture these pedophiles. Are they a risk to children? More often than not, absolutely! But what about a guy who now must carry around the label of sex offender when he poses no threat to anyone?

There's always exceptions to the rule.

 

[Irish#1]

Call me a wimp, if you will, but I'm bailing on Jacksonville Sunday and heading to visit my son, his intended and friends in Minneapolis. I live 3 blocks from the St. John's river and don't need no storm surge messin' wit me.

I dealt with Matthew, but he was a bit of a milquetoast.

Irma is one nasty bitch!

Be safe in your travels.

My son and family are in Fleming Island. Not sure how far away from you he is (can't be too far), but schools are closed tomorrow and Monday. They are on the second floor of an apartment. He's glad he didn't buy a house right away.