1. Brian Kelly's best coaching job
Kelly's Fighting Irish suffered a little bit of bad turnovers luck, lost their starting running back in the first week of the season, lost their quarterback in the second week, and dealt with a secondary that was banged up all year. They were adapting on the fly, from fall camp through November.
But in the regular season, they lost only in the final minute, on the road, to the teams that finished second and third in the final AP poll.
That Clemson's Dabo Swinney won the AP's coach of the year award made sense -- he did, after all, lead the Tigers to the national title game. That Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, Michigan State's Mark Dantonio, Houston's Tom Herman, and Oklahoma's Bob Stoops got more votes than Kelly was fine. They did great jobs.
Kelly deserved more votes than the one of 60 he received. His squad took on more adversity than almost any other and handled it with aplomb.
With a redshirt freshman at quarterback and a wide receiver at running back, Notre Dame ranked seventh in Off. S&P+. And while the defense ranked only 35th in Def. S&P+ -- even with injuries in the secondary, a unit with this recruiting should produce better results -- it still held nine opponents under 30 points, typically good enough when you've got a top-10 offense. And even with iffy defense, Notre Dame had one of the most consistent teams in the country, which is remarkable considering the youth at quarterback.
This was Kelly's best coaching job; this might have been Kelly's best team, even better than the one that made the 2012 BCS Championship. (S&P+ says 2012 was slightly better, but only slightly.)
So how does he follow up? Notre Dame returns just enough talent to talk yourself into the Fighting Irish but has just enough "ifs" to give you pause.
With two returning starters for one spot, they must figure out their quarterback situation. They must replace uniquely explosive weapons in receiver Will Fuller and running back C.J. Prosise. Though there's a world of potential on both lines, they must replace two particularly disruptive defenders and three OL starters who had combined for 106 career starts. And they must replace a guy who was, according to the Butkus Award voters, the best linebacker in the country.
Still, Notre Dame features more exciting sophomores and juniors than almost any team in the country: quarterbacks DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire, running back Josh Adams, tight end Alizé Jones, safety Drue Tranquill, etc. If Kelly can keep his troops rallied, Notre Dame will have a serious shot at a Playoff bid, especially considering the schedule might ease up. And if the defense plays to its recruiting rankings, this team's ceiling is as high as anyone's outside of Tuscaloosa.
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10. If they're successful in close games again...
...then Kelly's Irish will be a national title contender in 2016.
With only one projected top-15 opponent on the schedule, thanks to projected regression for Stanford and Michigan State, the Irish could follow last year's "only lose to top-10 teams" recipe into the Playoff.
Still, the home-road splits and a conservative No. 11 projection suggest this will be another season of heartburn and close games. Five Notre Dame contests are projected to finish with a one-possession margin.
There isn't a sure loss on the schedule. In fact, there's only one game in which Notre Dame has a worse than 59 percent chance of winning. But operating in close games will be critical. That means finding go-to receivers for the quarterback in times of need, continued quality from Yoon, and a defense that improves up front despite turnover and holds steady in the back despite freshmen on the two-deep.
All of the "ifs" are realistic, and while the defense still has plenty to prove, I'm not going to doubt Kelly after last year. If I had a poll vote -- and thank goodness I don't -- I would seriously consider Notre Dame in the preseason top five.