Your all very doom and gloom, but just look back, imagine being told in the 50s we wouldnt need bank tellers, newspapers deliveries, milk deliveries. We're better off then back then and its because of technological progress, it will shift work butimprove everyone in LR.
The difference is that those were jobs/tasks and we're talking entire industries, start to finish. I have no disagreements over it all being progress, I am simply raising the red flag and suggesting that if we approach societal problems the way we always have been that it might not "improve everyone in the long run."
Screw manufacturing, which is already toast...
(Seen here:
Shockingly steady decline in the percentage of the workforce is needed in the field, due to globalization and automation. The industry needs fewer and fewer people to make more and more things.)
...but what about outside of the factory, with industries like education and medicine?
Education: I can't see a "replacement" at the grade school/high school level, but it's not hard to see an efficiency boom that turns instructors of 20 kids into managers of 40 kids. At the college level, do I need to go to Yale/Harvard/Stanford/MIT/etc when I have these:
(Yale's PLSC 270)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3aw2ih626s&list=PLxfW-dO1hjb8Mxs15T_Ge7UK0z9uhR3ls
Or even a few dozen from Notre Dame:
Free Online Courses Offered by the University of Notre Dame
This list is two years old, but look at the free knowledge that you don't need to pay anyone for anymore! It's automated!:
List of Colleges and Others Offering Free Courses Online
It's not hard to see perfect lectures on every subject being available. Of course people will have questions that their video can't answer, but over time FAQs questions will be compiled and answered, and/or the lecture will be reshot. Version 1.0 becomes 10.0 and over time it'll be perfected and automated. Karl Marx would say that recording an individual's lectures eliminates his ability to sell his worth, as now the university or website has it and he is...unskilled and useless more and more often.
Medicine: Doctors can't be replaced. Right? RIGHT? Wrong:. IBM's supercomputer Watson knows everything and thanks to smart technology, it understands your speech:
IBM Watson supercomputer turns to medicine - CBS News
We won't need 1000 doctors in a hospital, we'll need 900. Then 800. Then 700. The accuracy and costs will be greatly improved, but at the cost of employment. This is progress, but when a guy in 2014 would get his MD, fewer of those positions will be available and he'll go get his RN. Or be a dental hygienist.