Democratic Primary Thread (New Poll - January)

Democratic Primary Thread (New Poll - January)

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 4 5.8%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 14 20.3%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 5 7.2%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 16 23.2%
  • Andrew Yang

    Votes: 7 10.1%
  • Amy Klobuchar

    Votes: 5 7.2%
  • Mike Bloomberg

    Votes: 6 8.7%
  • Other (i.e. an unlisted candidate)

    Votes: 12 17.4%

  • Total voters
    69

Irish#1

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Joe Biden under probe in Ukraine for alleged link to top prosecutor’s 2016 ouster
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/jo...ed-link-to-top-prosecutors-2016-ouster-report



giphy.gif

Are those Cheeto covered fingerprints I'm seeing?
 

stlnd01

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Joe has a substantial lead in South Carolina according to the latest polling. Not sure this will be enough to give him enough momentum for Super Tuesday, but when the SC results come in, Joe be like

Z30la3m.gif

Biden does seem to be rebounding right now in some polls, especially in Southern states. Maybe some second thoughts creeping in on Bernie?
But all the early voting also probably means momentum from winning South Carolina won’t be worth as much as it used to.
 

Irish YJ

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Biden does seem to be rebounding right now in some polls, especially in Southern states. Maybe some second thoughts creeping in on Bernie?
But all the early voting also probably means momentum from winning South Carolina won’t be worth as much as it used to.

Perhaps the AA communities didn't care for the term "Bernie Bros"

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FBA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FBA</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TuesdayMotivation?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TuesdayMotivation</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FeelTheBern?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FeelTheBern</a> wants the Black vote. Was this a good idea?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FBAC2020?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FBAC2020</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/FBACOMMITTEE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FBACOMMITTEE</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/tariqnasheed?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@tariqnasheed</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/GeorgeJ35687793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@GeorgeJ35687793</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DeeTubman?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DeeTubman</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/dijoni?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@dijoni</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/CarmelReal_77?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CarmelReal_77</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Timsomor?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Timsomor</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/indigenoussista?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@indigenoussista</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/PS3UD0K1D?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PS3UD0K1D</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/TRJones2020?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TRJones2020</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/kemba722?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kemba722</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Cer_Ether?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Cer_Ether</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/AdonyaWong?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AdonyaWong</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/PernellJerome?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PernellJerome</a> <a href="https://t.co/F0VfEnUQiS">pic.twitter.com/F0VfEnUQiS</a></p>— Foundational Black American Committee 🇺🇸 (@FBACOMMITTEE) <a href="https://twitter.com/FBACOMMITTEE/status/1232461062340927488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

ulukinatme

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He forgot the hot sauce!

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/S-AKUNpcLRg" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

marv81s

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What a conga line of Marxist freaks the democrats have leading their party and in their primary

I don’t sympathize with Sanders at all for what that party is doing to him in the primary as he shouldn’t be running for president as a democrat because he isn’t one. None of them are. He’s a communist through and through
 

BGIF

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Biden's Bros Crush Bernie's Bros.

Biden's Bros Crush Bernie's Bros.

Pundits have called the race in South Carolina and are touting Joe's HUGH win. "Biden dominating Sanders" per the media.

Yeah, Joe's gonna win something like 37 delegates to Bernie's 17 if I heard those numbers correctly. To listen to the talking heads it's the biggest win since the battle of Kursk.

Hardly.

Ari Fleisher said it best, "Big day for Joe Biden ... IF he was running for Senator from South Carolina."

Super Tuesday has 1357 delegates and Biden leads only in NC and VA. Sure Biden will get some votes in the other contests but finishing 2nd through 5th doesn't overtake Sanders. Will a win in SC cause voters across the nation to switch from their front runner to Biden? I just don't see it.

IF no candidate has enough delegates for a first ballot win at the convention I don't see how Biden can muster the 1220 delegates he would need IF ALL 771 Super Delegates support him. And he's not going to get 100% of the Supers.
 

BGIF

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Steyer Yangs!

Steyer Yangs!

Came in 3rd in SC but folded his tent.

Checkbook still open for the Dems.


Slip Slidin' Away ...

Pete got 3%

Amy got 1.
 

BGIF

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MIA In South Carolina

MIA In South Carolina

If Chris Matthews got a thrill up his leg from Biden's win, he wasn't sayin'.

Nor was MSNBC sayin' where Matthews was getting his jollies, Saturday Night.


BREAKING NEWS

... Stay tuned for Chris Matthews Latest Apology ... Will begin soon ...
 

Irish YJ

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Funny all the Biden love going on right now.

And honestly, SC is a GOP state, so is anyone shocked they went for a moderate. And does it matter he won it, given that SC won't matter for the dems anyway?

ST will be interesting.
 

stlnd01

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Funny all the Biden love going on right now.

And honestly, SC is a GOP state, so is anyone shocked they went for a moderate. And does it matter he won it, given that SC won't matter for the dems anyway?

ST will be interesting.

I don't think anyone's shocked that Biden won South Carolina. He banked his whole campaign on it. But the margin was impressive.

It matters because it's hard to win the Democratic Primary without performing well among black voters. Yes, black voters are most concentrated in Southern states that tend to vote GOP in the general election. But there's also a lot in Michigan and Pennsylvania, for what that's worth.

Texas in particular will be really interesting on Tuesday. Again its probably still a GOP state in November, but it has large populations of three constituencies that matter a ton to Dems right now. Latinos, blacks and suburban moderates. Could seem them splitting between Bernie, Biden and ButtiWarrenBerg, respectively. But if Biden can win the suburbs...
 

Irish YJ

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I don't think anyone's shocked that Biden won South Carolina. He banked his whole campaign on it. But the margin was impressive.

It matters because it's hard to win the Democratic Primary without performing well among black voters. Yes, black voters are most concentrated in Southern states that tend to vote GOP in the general election. But there's also a lot in Michigan and Pennsylvania, for what that's worth.

Texas in particular will be really interesting on Tuesday. Again its probably still a GOP state in November, but it has large populations of three constituencies that matter a ton to Dems right now. Latinos, blacks and suburban moderates. Could seem them splitting between Bernie, Biden and ButtiWarrenBerg, respectively. But if Biden can win the suburbs...

Not sure I'd call it impressive. HRC was close to triple Bern's votes in 2016 in SC. HRC and Bern were even in Iowa, but Bern doubled up Biden (delegates). HRC took 52% of Nevada, while Biden took 17% (Bern 40%). I get it, first win, and kinda "big", he just seems like week sauce. Perhaps he should start carrying around hot sauce like Hilldog.

I agree, TX will be interesting. And I get the AA impact, I just think Joe is pulling in a lot less than HRC did, and that's going to hurt in states that are less diverse.

I wish some of the other would drop.
 

Irishize

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If Biden were a Republican, he would’ve been Quayle’d long ago.
 

IrishLax

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Buttigieg and Steyer both dropping out probably helps Biden, but it still seems like Mike Bloomberg is about to serve up this election to Bernie Sanders on a silver platter. I think the #1 candidate that might be aided by Buttigieg dropping out though might actually be Warren... they occupied a reasonably similar space.

Also, the fact that Klobuchar (250-to-1 odds!!!) is still hanging around while Buttigieg has the decency to drop out is freaking absurd.
 

Legacy

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The Texas Primary

The Texas Primary

Early voting is over in Texas. This year’s turnout (7.45%) surpassed turnout in 2016 (5.12%). In Texas’ 10 largest counties, a total of 1,113,726 people voted in person and by mail — 12% of registered voters. According to the latest registration figures reported by the secretary of state before the 2020 primary, 57.2% of all Texas voters live in these 10 counties.

The state will send 261 delegates to the DNC with 228 of them as pledged delegates bound to a candidate in the first ballot unless he releases them. The 33 remaining delegates, formerly known as superdelegates, include 13 Democratic members of Congress and 20 Democratic National Committee members. These are unpledged delegates, but they cannot vote on the first ballot.

Of the 228 pledged delegates, the Texas Democratic Party allocates 149 district-level delegates among each of the 31 Texas Senate districts. There are 49 at-large and 30 Pledged Elected Party Officials (PLEO) Democratic delegates in Texas. All the pledged delegates will be apportioned based on the statewide voting. Candidates have to receive at least 15% of the statewide vote in the primary.

Latest polling (538) - Sanders 28.9%, Biden 22.4%, Bloomberg 17.3% and Warren 12.2%

When selecting the at-large delegates, the committee must also select people who meet the Texas Democrats’ goals. The 261-person delegation must be perfectly split by gender and also needs to include a certain number of Hispanics, African Americans, Texans under 36, disabled Texans and other historically underrepresented groups.

Getting that proportionality of the delegates more closely to the voting public as well as not having the superdelegates vote on the first ballot seem like good ideas.
 
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Irish#1

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Buttigieg and Steyer both dropping out probably helps Biden, but it still seems like Mike Bloomberg is about to serve up this election to Bernie Sanders on a silver platter. I think the #1 candidate that might be aided by Buttigieg dropping out though might actually be Warren... they occupied a reasonably similar space.

Also, the fact that Klobuchar (250-to-1 odds!!!) is still hanging around while Buttigieg has the decency to drop out is freaking absurd.

I mentioned earlier that I thought Pete was really doing this for the next election. Get his name out there, participate in the debates for experience, etc. His dropping out now confirms that for me.

Steyer never had a chance and Warren continues to circle the drain even with Pete dropping out.

Biden needs to at least break even with Bernie on Super Tuesday to have a chance.

Super Tuesday is also make or break time for Doomberg.

All just my opinions and with those and $5 you can get yourself coffee at Starbucks.
 

stlnd01

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Buttigieg and Steyer both dropping out probably helps Biden, but it still seems like Mike Bloomberg is about to serve up this election to Bernie Sanders on a silver platter. I think the #1 candidate that might be aided by Buttigieg dropping out though might actually be Warren... they occupied a reasonably similar space.

Also, the fact that Klobuchar (250-to-1 odds!!!) is still hanging around while Buttigieg has the decency to drop out is freaking absurd.

There is a theory out there that Klobuchar at this point is mostly staying in to keep Bernie from winning Minnesota. Then she’ll drop. Makes some sense as she’s no dummy and it’s hard to see her being much of a factor anywhere else.

Agree Biden and Warren will probably split the Pete vote. Again if it gets Warren enough votes to get over 15 percent and winning delegates in states like California and North Carolina, in the long run it helps to block Bernie, which seemed like Pete’s goal.

I am really curious to see how many people actually vote for Bloomberg. He polls fairly well, considering, but it’s relatively easy to buy poll numbers - they reflect name recognition more than anything. Harder to translate that into actual votes, especially if you don’t have a good organization on the ground. Mike’s organization is expensive but unclear whether it’s good. FWIW, Steyer underperformed his polls in, I think, all four states he was on the ballot. Certainly the first three.
 

gkIrish

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I am super interested to see what Warren does. Last night in her speech she basically played the unity card. She is going to have a somewhat big influence on the election. I think it will be fatal to the Democratic Party if she endorses Sanders because I don't think he can beat Trump.

My prediction (with odds) on who will be the nominee:

Mayor Pete (35%)
Sanders (30%)
Klobuchar (15%)
Bloomberg (10%)
Biden (10%)


What moron posted this?
 

Irish YJ

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[/B]

What moron posted this?

I picked Biden/Sanders, with Biden winning. Still could happen, but didn't foresee Biden looking like a gaffe machine and going all John Wayne. That was before Boomberg came into the picture. I guess anything could still happen. It's going to get real, real quick.
 

GoIrish41

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Early voting in California, Texas and other Super Tuesday states is likely to blunt any Biden momentum from the SC primary. Many votes were already cast before the results came out on Saturday, and if Biden underperforms on Super Tuesday, it is difficult seeing him maintaining the momentum he earned in SC. I don't know how he can really maximize the bump from SC given that he only has three days before a group of elections that are going to overshadow what happened Saturday. I know the moderates were out in force on the Sunday shows, but Biden waited too long to make a move and its probably too little too late. That's my take. Bernie wins big on Super Tuesday and puts this race out of reach. If the Dem establishment tries anything to even the odds for the moderates they are going to alienate the progressives and likely make 4 more years of Trump inevitable. They would be wise to let the voters pick the nominee and get behind the winner.

Lax: Now might be a good time for a revised poll to see where Buttigieg support flows now that he dropped out.
 
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Wild Bill

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Early voting in California, Texas and other Super Tuesday states is likely to blunt any Biden momentum from the SC primary. Many votes were already cast before the results came out on Saturday, and if Biden underperforms on Super Tuesday, it is difficult seeing him maintaining the momentum he earned in SC. I don't know how he can really maximize the bump from SC given that he only has three days before a group of elections that are going to overshadow what happened Saturday. I know the moderates were out in force on the Sunday shows, but Biden waited too long to make a move and its probably too little too late. That's my take. Bernie wins big on Super Tuesday and puts this race out of reach. If the Dem establishment tries anything to even the odds for the moderates they are going to alienate the progressives and likely make 4 more years of Trump inevitable. They would be wise to let the voters pick the nominee and get behind the winner.

Lax: Now might be a good time for a revised poll to see where Buttigieg flows now that he drops out.

You're assuming the dem establishment, i.e., the dem donor class, prefers Bernie over Trump.
 

Irish YJ

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My Super Tuesday predictions...

Alabama - Biden
Arkansas - Biden
California - Bern
Colorado - Bern
Maine - Bern
Massachusetts - Warren, but Bern a close 2nd
Minnesota - Bern with Klob a close 2nd
North Carolina - Toss up with Biden/Sanders
Oklahoma - Bern
Tennessee - Biden
Texas - Toss up, narrow win Sanders
Utah - Bern
Vermont - Bern
Virginia - Biden
 

GoIrish41

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You're assuming the dem establishment, i.e., the dem donor class, prefers Bernie over Trump.

Nope. I'm assuming the people prefer Bernie over Trump. Bernie has already said he'd rather lose than except a dime from Bloomberg, so he's betting on the will of the people, not the preferences of the donors. As the campaign chugs along, we'll see if his trust in voters is misplaced.
 
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Irishize

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I never noticed any of the Dem contenders scolding Bernie for not even being a member of the Democratic Party. Yes, he caucuses w// them but he’s basically taken over their Party & their platform. The fact that a Socialist is going to be the face of the Democratic Party is sad & unpatriotic. Seriously, the Dems can’t do better than a psduedo-Commie?
 

Irish YJ

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I never noticed any of the Dem contenders scolding Bernie for not even being a member of the Democratic Party. Yes, he caucuses w// them but he’s basically taken over their Party & their platform. The fact that a Socialist is going to be the face of the Democratic Party is sad & unpatriotic. Seriously, the Dems can’t do better than a psduedo-Commie?

giphy.gif
 

Wild Bill

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I'm assuming the people prefer Bernie over Trump. Bernie has already said he'd rather lose than except a dime from Bloomberg, so he's betting on the will of the people, not the preferences of the donors. As the campaign chugs along, we'll see if his trust in voters is misplaced.

You said they (dem establishment) would be wise to get behind the winner. I'm not so sure they agree. We'll see.
 

Legacy

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If the majority or a plurality of voters vote Democratic, that doesn't mean that America is becoming Socialist?
 
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