Democratic Primary Thread (New Poll - January)

Democratic Primary Thread (New Poll - January)

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 4 5.8%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 14 20.3%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 5 7.2%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 16 23.2%
  • Andrew Yang

    Votes: 7 10.1%
  • Amy Klobuchar

    Votes: 5 7.2%
  • Mike Bloomberg

    Votes: 6 8.7%
  • Other (i.e. an unlisted candidate)

    Votes: 12 17.4%

  • Total voters
    69

GATTACA!

It's about to get gross
Messages
15,106
Reaction score
12,945
I get the need to pump up your preferred candidate but if your goal is to get Trump out of office you aren't helping anyone by voting for Yang.

I like Yang but it's just not going to happen. He is projecting at 2% for Iowa, 3% New Hampshire, 2% South Carolina, etc. etc. He didn't even qualify for the last debate which means voters in the bigger states probably already think he ended his candidacy.

Him missing that debate was such a load of crap. He easily makes it if there isn't a giant gap in qualifying polls. There was something like a 50 day drought between early state polls, and only 9 qualifying polls published period between the previous debate and the end of the window for this last one. Also the DNC conveniently pushed the window back 10 days to make sure Klob made it.
 

gkIrish

Greek God
Messages
13,184
Reaction score
1,004
Him missing that debate was such a load of crap. He easily makes it if there isn't a giant gap in qualifying polls. There was something like a 50 day drought between early state polls, and only 9 qualifying polls published period between the previous debate and the end of the window for this last one. Also the DNC conveniently pushed the window back 10 days to make sure Klob made it.

He has been screwed in a lot of ways, no doubt. He is someone to watch for the next cycle.
 

GATTACA!

It's about to get gross
Messages
15,106
Reaction score
12,945
He has been screwed in a lot of ways, no doubt. He is someone to watch for the next cycle.

I think he'll be a major player in 24 if Trump wins reelection. Also if Biden wins the nomination I think the chances of him picking Yang as VP are pretty good. He's made lots of comments that almost imply it and it makes perfect sense.
 

NDVirginia19

Rally
Messages
4,436
Reaction score
5,142
Boot-Edge-Edge is a dumb person's idea of what a smart person is. Obviously he is textbook smart but listening to him speak makes me laugh.

Pete is the living embodiment of a Notre Dame Sophomore who went to Appalachia during fall break and it "changed his life"
 

GATTACA!

It's about to get gross
Messages
15,106
Reaction score
12,945
Boston globe NH poll that came out today. Interesting that all the front runners seem to be losing steam.

1 Undecided: 23.8%
2 Bernie Sanders 16.4%
3 Joe Biden: 14.8%
4 Pete Buttigieg: 12.2%
5 Warren: 9.8%
6 Andrew Yang 5.6%
7 Tulsi Gabbard 5.4%
8 Amy Kloubuchar 4.6%
Everyone else below 4%

As a Yang supporter I love to see it. Second NH poll in a row at 6%. Clearly growing, just a matter of if there's enough time to peak at the right moment.
 

BleedBlueGold

Well-known member
Messages
6,270
Reaction score
2,493
Yang and Gabbard polling ahead of Kloubuchar eventhough they didn't qualify for last debates...I like to see that. Keep it up you two!
 

drayer54

Well-known member
Messages
8,395
Reaction score
5,819
Don't forget the funky Iowa caucus format. It's not a show-up and check the box type affair.

The republicans gather at a local church, say an opening prayer, recite the pledge, and then one person representing each candidate gets up and gets 2-3 minutes to pitch their candidate. After this, we all threw in post-it notes to mark our preferred candidate. Not much on voter security, but the baked goods in the entryway are friendly for the walk out.

The democrats do something very different. They gather at a school or community center in a larger setting, skip the prayer, skip the pledge, and start by physically picking with other supporters of your preferred candidate. Then a husky woman in a Biden shirt walks around with a clipboard counting up how many people are where. This drew some ire in 2016 as the Bernie folks questioned the counting skills of the woman in the Hillary shirt.

After the first pass, those who break ~15% get to stay where they are, and the rest have to find a new clique. Let the sales pitch begin as folks start trying to bring the oddballs into their corner. This is where you Yang gangers, Tulsi fanboi's, and the creep in the corner who like Tom Steyer have to decide if they will go sit with the Bingo crowd for Joe Biden or they have to pick their favorite democratic socialist. Another round concludes and then another check for viability. A final check is done, and then delegates are assigned based on final numbers.

The math gets weird as you don't get a final tally or turnout. The results may feel kind of rigged, because to some extent they are. Iowa City and Ames will turn out big for the Bern and Warren, and the delegates have to get distributed correctly compared to Paton, Iowa where the town folk will gather and discuss knitting and Joe Biden.

The format is going to help someone, it's just tough to say who. Who will the people move to after the first pass?
I'm going to miss it!
 

Irish2155

Well-known member
Messages
6,451
Reaction score
1,979
I think Dems would be smart to hope Dr. Drew takes Schiff's seat and put their eggs in him to backfill Trump in 2024.

I also agree the Dems lost their a top candidate when My Man Mitch took the PU gig. He'd be a good president I think.
 

drayer54

Well-known member
Messages
8,395
Reaction score
5,819
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tom Steyer's campaign has spent $600 on yoga lessons. <a href="https://t.co/P9cVTKFRhb">pic.twitter.com/P9cVTKFRhb</a></p>— Andrew Kerr (@AndrewKerrNC) <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewKerrNC/status/1219637916491833347?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Irish#1

Livin' Your Dream!
Staff member
Messages
44,597
Reaction score
20,058
I think Dems would be smart to hope Dr. Drew takes Schiff's seat and put their eggs in him to backfill Trump in 2024.

I also agree the Dems lost their a top candidate when My Man Mitch took the PU gig. He'd be a good president I think.

I think you, NDBoiler and I need to get Mitch's campaign going for 2024. We can start here in Indiana and start expanding outward in a circle. Lock down everything but the left coast and the syrup drinkers in New England and he's golden.
 

Whiskeyjack

Mittens Margaritas Ante Porcos
Staff member
Messages
20,894
Reaction score
8,126
Jeb's "please clap":

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DdCYMvaUcrA" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

... has been eclipsed by Buttigieg's "c'mon":

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Buttigieg pleads with silent crowd in Iowa to cheer for him: “come on” <a href="https://t.co/7HA2Tj2AKS">pic.twitter.com/7HA2Tj2AKS</a></p>— Mike Joyce (@mjoyce317) <a href="https://twitter.com/mjoyce317/status/1219708246891606016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

IrishLax

Something Witty
Staff member
Messages
37,545
Reaction score
28,995
The Democratic establishment seems to be conspiring to ensure that people that dislike them (i.e. everyone?) rallies behind Bernie. That Hillary interview was INSANE.

Bernie is also effectively weaponizing social media to attack Biden. He has a large number of paid and unpaid surrogates that are very good at the whole internetting thing. So he attacked Biden with them, apologized, then Biden's campaign hit him back (i.e. took the bait), and now Bernie has unleashed the hounds. Going to be VERY interesting to follow this... because Buttigieg may really benefit, as might Warren or Bloomberg.
 

GoIrish41

Paterfamilius
Messages
9,929
Reaction score
2,120
Boston globe NH poll that came out today. Interesting that all the front runners seem to be losing steam.

1 Undecided: 23.8%
2 Bernie Sanders 16.4%
3 Joe Biden: 14.8%
4 Pete Buttigieg: 12.2%
5 Warren: 9.8%
6 Andrew Yang 5.6%
7 Tulsi Gabbard 5.4%
8 Amy Kloubuchar 4.6%
Everyone else below 4%

As a Yang supporter I love to see it. Second NH poll in a row at 6%. Clearly growing, just a matter of if there's enough time to peak at the right moment.

If the voting wasn't going to happen in two weeks, but two years, Yang might have a chance to close the gap. I like him, but he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning. Whomever wins Iowa and NH, particularly if it is the same candidate who wins both, momentum will play a role. Whether it will play a big enough role to overcome Biden's massive lead with black voters in SC remains to be seen. The odds are in favor of Biden, I think.
 

IrishLax

Something Witty
Staff member
Messages
37,545
Reaction score
28,995
If the voting wasn't going to happen in two weeks, but two years, Yang might have a chance to close the gap. I like him, but he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning. Whomever wins Iowa and NH, particularly if it is the same candidate who wins both, momentum will play a role. Whether it will play a big enough role to overcome Biden's massive lead with black voters in SC remains to be seen. The odds are in favor of Biden, I think.

In offshore betting markets, Joe Biden is the favorite with Bernie a reasonably close second. Biden actually right now has the best odds that he has had at any point since announcing that he was going to run. Over the past month, Bernie's odds have gotten nearly twice as good.

Warren has fallen so far off the pace that she has even odds with Mike Bloomberg. Buttigieg also has low odds, about 12-to-1. No one else is better than 20/1.
 

drayer54

Well-known member
Messages
8,395
Reaction score
5,819
Revenge of Bernie and Pete’s Jeb moment are good.

But how about this from the Aloha Momma:

5e28637fad7aee96463ad602
 

GoIrish41

Paterfamilius
Messages
9,929
Reaction score
2,120
In offshore betting markets, Joe Biden is the favorite with Bernie a reasonably close second. Biden actually right now has the best odds that he has had at any point since announcing that he was going to run. Over the past month, Bernie's odds have gotten nearly twice as good.

Warren has fallen so far off the pace that she has even odds with Mike Bloomberg. Buttigieg also has low odds, about 12-to-1. No one else is better than 20/1.

I don't know anything about the offshore betting, but that seems right on to me. If I had to vote in a primary tomorrow, I'd pick Bernie. But if someone doesn't start peeling off African American support from Biden, nobody is going to catch him after South Carolina. That's the biggest early primary and will carry not only a lot of electoral weight, but also set the stage for the African American vote. No Democrat will win without getting pretty serious support from the black communities across the nation.
 

stlnd01

Was away. Now returned.
Messages
13,386
Reaction score
10,247
Serious question: Why do we think offshore betting markets are any better indicator of what might happen than, say, polling?
 

stlnd01

Was away. Now returned.
Messages
13,386
Reaction score
10,247
Will be very interesting to see what happens when people actually start to, like, vote.

I generally like most of the Dem candidates, myself, but they’re respectively so old/young/angry/scoldy/green/rich/boring that it’s hard to see large numbers of pulling the lever for any of them in particular.

Still, someone’s got to win. Right?
 

GATTACA!

It's about to get gross
Messages
15,106
Reaction score
12,945
New national Emerson Poll (A rated)

Biden 30%

Sanders 27%

Warren 13%

Yang 8%

Bloomberg 7%

Pete 6%

Klob 4%

Everyone else 1% or lower

LET'S FUCKING GO!!!
 

IrishLax

Something Witty
Staff member
Messages
37,545
Reaction score
28,995
New national Emerson Poll (A rated)

Biden 30%

Sanders 27%

Warren 13%

Yang 8%

Bloomberg 7%

Pete 6%

Klob 4%

Everyone else 1% or lower

LET'S FUCKING GO!!!

Yang just needs to make a 10% showing in New Hampshire and anything is possible.
 

GATTACA!

It's about to get gross
Messages
15,106
Reaction score
12,945
Yang just needs to make a 10% showing in New Hampshire and anything is possible.

He's said this entire time that he was going to peak at the right time.

I'm starting to believe him.
 

drayer54

Well-known member
Messages
8,395
Reaction score
5,819
Yang will not be the nominee.

I’m sorry this is happening to you.
 

gkIrish

Greek God
Messages
13,184
Reaction score
1,004
Yang will not be the nominee.

I’m sorry this is happening to you.

Yang is the Ron Paul of this election(I was a Ron Paul guy).

His supporters will never waver or admit defeat and continue to vote for him. His polling numbers will be between 2-10% at any given time but he will never get the mass support needed to actually win the election. It's just the realty. Again, I like the guy but it's not happening.
 

BleedBlueGold

Well-known member
Messages
6,270
Reaction score
2,493
Yang is the Ron Paul of this election(I was a Ron Paul guy).

His supporters will never waver or admit defeat and continue to vote for him. His polling numbers will be between 2-10% at any given time but he will never get the mass support needed to actually win the election. It's just the realty. Again, I like the guy but it's not happening.

I want Yang to get the nomination. But I tend to agree that he won't. So with that said, I really hope he has a prominent role in someone's administration.

I personally feel this country needs someone who is willing to talk about real problems AND bring reasonable solutions to those problems. Someone who avoids the Woke B.S. and ignores the trendy topics. Someone who uses logic, and statistics to fix important issues. Someone who isn't afraid to have the difficult conversations and is willing to push back against propaganda (because the data doesn't support it). Yang IS that guy. So I hope he can at least direct traffic in that direction.

I'm tired of the politicians who claim to want to fix things but it's blatantly clear, they just want the status quo. Give me that guy/gal who pushes back against the elitist status quo, and I'll pull the lever. Honestly, I don't care what letter is next to their name at this point. Just fix the issues that this country faces. Most of us agree on the problems. But the solutions are rarely bipartisan. Lets bring back compromise and start getting things accomplished, shall we?
 
Last edited:

IrishLax

Something Witty
Staff member
Messages
37,545
Reaction score
28,995
I want Yang to get the nomination. But I tend to agree that he won't. So with that said, I really hope he has a prominent role in someone's administration.

I personally feel this country needs someone who is willing to talk about real problems AND bring reasonable solutions to those problems. Someone who avoids the Woke B.S. and ignores the trendy topics. Someone who uses logic, and statistics, to fix important issues. Someone who isn't afraid to have the difficult conversations and is willing to push back against propaganda (because the data doesn't support it). Yang IS that guy. So I hope he can at least direct traffic in that direction.

I'm tired of the politicians who claim to want to fix things but it's blatantly clear, they just want the status quo. Give me that guy/gal and I'll pull the lever. Honestly, I don't care what letter is next to their name at this point. Just fix the issues that this country faces. Most of us agree on the problems. But the solutions are rarely bipartisan. Lets bring back compromise and start getting things accomplished, shall we?

Yes, it's this or they're offering ridiculous "solutions" to appease weak minded people. I completely agree with your post and it's why I'm personally a big Yang supporter. He's authentic and gives real answers to real questions.

90% of what is talked about in these debates is some version of pandering or the #woke olympics.

Virginia votes on Super Tuesday. If Yang is competitive before that, I will vote for him. If not, then I will likely vote for Biden or Buttigieg for some normalcy. I will not vote for Warren under any circumstance, and Bernie supporters are also starting to really get on my nerves with their pompous rhetoric and other shenanigans (see: today lashing out at Joe Rogan).
 

BleedBlueGold

Well-known member
Messages
6,270
Reaction score
2,493
Yes, it's this or they're offering ridiculous "solutions" to appease weak minded people. I completely agree with your post and it's why I'm personally a big Yang supporter. He's authentic and gives real answers to real questions.

90% of what is talked about in these debates is some version of pandering or the #woke olympics.

Virginia votes on Super Tuesday. If Yang is competitive before that, I will vote for him. If not, then I will likely vote for Biden or Buttigieg for some normalcy. I will not vote for Warren under any circumstance, and Bernie supporters are also starting to really get on my nerves with their pompous rhetoric and other shenanigans (see: today lashing out at Joe Rogan).

Agreed on Warren.

What did they do to Rogan? Rogan had him on his show and endorsed him yesterday? Do they think Joe is alt-right and are rejecting his endorsement? It wouldn't surprise me.

I liked Sanders in 2016 because he was the only candidate talking about corruption and medicare for all, etc. Again, problems I agree with (however, I disagreed with his solutions....still voted for him over HRC).
 

IrishLax

Something Witty
Staff member
Messages
37,545
Reaction score
28,995
Agreed on Warren.

What did they do to Rogan? Rogan had him on his show and endorsed him yesterday? Do they think Joe is alt-right and are rejecting his endorsement? It wouldn't surprise me.

I liked Sanders in 2016 because he was the only candidate talking about corruption and medicare for all, etc. Again, problems I agree with (however, I disagreed with his solutions....still voted for him over HRC).

Yup:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/AfmfV60JEj">https://t.co/AfmfV60JEj</a><br>It’s not up for negotiation - Crenshaw, Shapiro, Harris, Saad, countless others get to spew their vitriol unchallenged - I’ve watched thousands of hours. <a href="https://t.co/9K0HEtsjWw">https://t.co/9K0HEtsjWw</a></p>— Imraan Siddiqi (@imraansiddiqi) <a href="https://twitter.com/imraansiddiqi/status/1220606421684801538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/davidsirota?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@davidsirota</a> is this okay with you? The campaign video lauding the endorsement of a man known to be a misogynist, a racist, a homophobe, a transphobe, a white nationalist? This is okay? I need to know. I am literally crushed by this.</p>— Jodi Optimism Bias Jacobson (@jljacobson) <a href="https://twitter.com/jljacobson/status/1220534015746330624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And on and on. There are thousands of tweets to this effect.

I am willing to vote for Bernie, regardless of my contempt for his surrogates that are generally liars/opportunists like AOC, etc. and shill for him online with disinformation. I will never, ever under any circumstance vote for a fraud like Warren.
 
Top