Democratic Primary Thread (New Poll - January)

[Blazers46]

This is sort of like the Ohio State Clemson game... they are gonna beat each other up only to face LSU (Trump) in the finale.

 

[ulukinatme]

I still say they should push for a moderate if they want any chance of beating Trump. The Socialists aren't going to get it done. I like Gabbard or Yang. Warren will get killed against Trump, she previous spats with him haven't ended well for her. I think Pete is too bland, not enough charisma.

For something fun, Tulsi got challenged to a push up contest by a supporter. She beat him in heels:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I got challenged to a fun push-up contest at my town hall yesterday! <a href="https://t.co/0QfdNB9sV7">pic.twitter.com/0QfdNB9sV7</a></p>— Tulsi Gabbard �� (@TulsiGabbard) <a href="https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1218146952606601216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I'm not sure the other candidates can do a push up.

 

[IrishLax]

I’m going to say this one time because it’s a new thread and it’s not clear from the OP —

Do not post off topic stuff here. There are other threads for Trump and politics. This is strictly for discussing the Democratic primary and any posts not on topic will be removed.

 

[Legacy]

The idea of superdelegates may loom over all of this. That may not favor an outsider.

Democratic delegate rules, 2020 (Ballotpedia)

The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be selected by delegates to the Democratic National Convention, which will be held July 13-16, 2020, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The national nominating convention is the formal ceremony during which the party officially selects its nominee. The delegates are individuals chosen to represent their state, territory, or Democrats Abroad at the convention.

In 2020, there will be 4,750 delegates: 3,979 pledged delegates and 771 automatic delegates—more commonly known as superdelegates.[1]

To win the Democratic nomination, a presidential candidate must receive support from a majority of the pledged delegates on the first ballot: 1,990 pledged delegates.[2] If the convention is contested and goes to a second ballot or more, automatic delegates will be able to vote and a candidate must receive majority support from all delegates: more than 2,375 votes.[3] Roughly two-thirds of the delegates will have been allocated by the end of March 2020.

This page provides an overview of the types of delegates to the convention and a summary of delegates by state. Election dates, delegate counts, delegate allocation rules are subject to change as each state finalizes its delegation selection process. (cont)

 

[gkIrish]

Indiana is open primary so whether you are registered to a party or not you can vote in the primary for either party. I went Buttigieg because he and Klobuchar are the most moderate. Biden would be ok for 4 years I suppose but it’s difficult constantly watching him lose his train of thought when speaking. The other ones are just too far left and I understand the criticism but would at least bring respect back to the office. To be fair I would also prefer nearly all republicans over the current guy.

Not sure about New York but I don't think you have to be a registered Democrat to vote in the primaries in most states.

New York is a closed primary so I can't vote.

 

[drayer54]

The idea of superdelegates may loom over all of this. That may not favor an outsider.

Democratic delegate rules, 2020 (Ballotpedia)

People forget that the Dems rig the race with superdelegates. This is the game changer people aren’t talking about enough. I’d be shocked if some stripper in Arkansas’s deadbeat baby daddy daddy isn’t the nominee.

 

[NorthDakota]

Biden carries the day easily in the last poll on this site. Pete got 1 total vote. Interesting to see him leading now.

Boot-Edge-Edge is a dumb person's idea of what a smart person is. Obviously he is textbook smart but listening to him speak makes me laugh.

I'd like to see someone as President who is not OVERTLY behaving in ways which give negative examples to young people growing up needing positive ones. Anyone on either side of the aisle like that? Anyone that someone might honestly respect?

When I was a kid Bill Clinton was using cigars as dildos and busting nut on White House interns. Just before my parents were born, JFK was regularly cheating on his wife, LBJ was talking about how to get the n***r vote locked up and Nixon was being Nixon.

The President is not a role model and anyone who suggests otherwise is only claiming that in order to try and use it as a weapon against the President or a candidate.

Last time we had a genuinely good person in the oval office lefties called him a war criminal.

 

[Old Man Mike]

... Noda strikes again.

LOL to not wanting a role model as chief executive.

 

[Legacy]

Republican primary rules in Louisiana limiting delegates to those candidates who got over 20% of the popular vote can slant delegate results.

2016 Louisiana Republican primary

Delegate dispute
Initially, because the race in Louisiana was relatively close (Trump won by only 3.6%), Trump and Cruz each received 18 of the state's 46 delegates. Marco Rubio won five more delegates, and the remaining five were "unbound", meaning they could choose to support whichever candidate they wanted.[8] After Rubio withdrew from the race, the five Louisiana delegates that had been pledged to him became "free agents" who, like the five previously unbound delegates, were expected to support Cruz.[9] Later in March 2016, it was reported that, despite having lost the Louisiana primary to Trump, Cruz could get more of the state's delegates overall, because he was likely to receive support from more of Louisiana's unbound delegates than was Trump. In response, the Trump campaign announced that they would challenge the delegate distribution in Louisiana, with Trump himself tweeting that a "lawsuit" would be coming. Trump campaign senior adviser Barry Bennett responded by saying that Trump was referring to a "decertification process" that the campaign would pursue through the Republican National Committee.[10] In response to Trump's claims, Republican Party of Louisiana executive director Jason Dore stated in March 2016 that the proportional delegate allocation rules for Louisiana's primary were adopted before Trump announced his presidential candidacy, and that it was too late by then to change them. Dore also said that Cruz was not going to receive more delegates than Trump, adding, "Everybody's been allocated what they're going to be allocated."[11]

The Dem Party may have similar rules in some states, but I haven't checked those out yet. With so many Dem candidates we may not have an outright winner going into the convention.

 

[317Irish]

Boot-Edge-Edge is a dumb person's idea of what a smart person is. Obviously he is textbook smart but listening to him speak makes me laugh.



When I was a kid Bill Clinton was using cigars as dildos and busting nut on White House interns. Just before my parents were born, JFK was regularly cheating on his wife, LBJ was talking about how to get the n***r vote locked up and Nixon was being Nixon.

The President is not a role model and anyone who suggests otherwise is only claiming that in order to try and use it as a weapon against the President or a candidate.

Last time we had a genuinely good person in the oval office lefties called him a war criminal.

Give me a break when comparing people with flaws/regrettable behavior to the man that is just a giant billboard for what you don’t want your kids to grow up to be. Each of the Democratic candidates has things about them I don’t care for, as did each of the 2016 Republican candidates that Trump best out, but I would comfortably call each and every one of them better human beings that 45. Sorry if this strays too far off topic but I had to add my .02

 

[sharksamardzija8345]

I still say they should push for a moderate if they want any chance of beating Trump. The Socialists aren't going to get it done. I like Gabbard or Yang. Warren will get killed against Trump, she previous spats with him haven't ended well for her. I think Pete is too bland, not enough charisma.

For something fun, Tulsi got challenged to a push up contest by a supporter. She beat him in heels:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I got challenged to a fun push-up contest at my town hall yesterday! <a href="https://t.co/0QfdNB9sV7">pic.twitter.com/0QfdNB9sV7</a></p>— Tulsi Gabbard �� (@TulsiGabbard) <a href="https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1218146952606601216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I'm not sure the other candidates can do a push up.

In what way are doing push ups relevant? Plus I think Pete could do 300 pushups, Yang can probably bust out a few and maybe Biden could maybe even get one push up probably. Maybe Amy Klobuchar. Maybe.

 

[GATTACA!]

Yang and it's not even close.

He's the only one with modern solutions for modern problems. Does anyone trust borderline senile candidates like Biden/Warren/Sanders who could easily die of natural causes during their first term to be able to understand the looming threat of something like AI?

Yang is young, energetic, seems to be a genuinely good person, and isn't bought by billionaire donors in wine cellars like fake Pete.

 

[drayer54]

The very fair and level headed New York Times just endorsed Klobuchar and Warren.

Warren because they are radical liberals and Klobuchar because they were afraid they’d get beaten like staffers if they didn’t. This reinforced the establishment isolation of Bernie and reminded us that nobody really likes Joe Biden.

 

[Irish#1]

Trey Gowdy would be great in IMO or Mitch Daniels.

He would be awesome as President. The man knows how to wade through the swamp and has shown he's a tax and budget guru. I wonder if he has any desire to jump into the quagmire of DC politics?

 

[ulukinatme]

In what way are doing push ups relevant? Plus I think Pete could do 300 pushups, Yang can probably bust out a few and maybe Biden could maybe even get one push up probably. Maybe Amy Klobuchar. Maybe.

Do you even lift, bro?

But seriously, it was just something fun. Tulsi is still active in the National Guard and did a tour of service in Iraq, so you know she's in shape and is disciplined. I think you overestimate Mayor Pete, he's five feet nothin', a hundred and nothin', and he's got hardly a speck of athletic ability.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

American Solidarity Party 2020 baby!

REPS

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I'd like to see Tulsi get more traction, but I'm not sure how realistic her chances are.

Just to get it on record, I don't agree lock-step with any of these candidates. There are plenty of issues where I disagree with their solutions or general viewpoint. But Yang and Gabbard are my top two, without a doubt.

 

[IrishLax]

I'd like to see Tulsi get more traction, but I'm not sure how realistic her chances are.

Just to get it on record, I don't agree lock-step with any of these candidates. There are plenty of issues where I disagree with their solutions or general viewpoint. But Yang and Gabbard are my top two, without a doubt.

The appeal of Yang is that he is 0% bullshit. He gives real answers to real questions.

Elizabeth Warren is the biggest phony of all time, and that's why she's starting to tank. Bernie at least talks-the-talk consistently even if he doesn't always walk-the-walk.

None of the candidates have mass appeal across a splintered Democratic base.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The appeal of Yang is that he is 0% bullshit. He gives real answers to real questions.

Elizabeth Warren is the biggest phony of all time, and that's why she's starting to tank. Bernie at least talks-the-talk consistently even if he doesn't always walk-the-walk.

None of the candidates have mass appeal across a splintered Democratic base.

I agree. Which is why D's should be freaking out about the general election. They need someone who can unify the base and grab the independents from Trump.

 

[IrishLax]

I agree. Which is why D's should be freaking out about the general election. They need someone who can unify the base and grab the independents from Trump.

IMO, if you're looking at the general election, everyone will hold their nose and vote for Biden. Same for Bloomberg. With Andrew Yang, there wouldn't even be nose holding and he has legitimate crossover appeal which is why he has the best offshore betting odds head-to-head with Trump.

Pete will lose homophobes, that's the sad reality. Warren has the worst offshore betting odds head-to-head with Trump for a reason... she's a charlatan. Bernie will capture a significant portion of Trump voters from 2016 but will lose a significant portion of moderate Democrats that do not want socialism. He's the biggest wildcard, by far.

 

[ulukinatme]

I agree. Which is why D's should be freaking out about the general election. They need someone who can unify the base and grab the independents from Trump.

Biden is the closest one in the candidates polling well that can grab the independents, and he's got his own issues. One of the more progressive candidates will likely win and they're likely not going to be able to stand up to Trump nor get those moderate votes. Mayor Pete doesn't have the charisma, Warren is tanking, Sanders is too far left, Klobucher is there too.

 

[gkIrish]

IMO, if you're looking at the general election, everyone will hold their nose and vote for Biden. Same for Bloomberg. With Andrew Yang, there wouldn't even be nose holding and he has legitimate crossover appeal which is why he has the best offshore betting odds head-to-head with Trump.

Pete will lose homophobes, that's the sad reality. Warren has the worst offshore betting odds head-to-head with Trump for a reason... she's a charlatan. Bernie will capture a significant portion of Trump voters from 2016 but will lose a significant portion of moderate Democrats that do not want socialism. He's the biggest wildcard, by far.

Biden and Bloomberg are the only candidates who could (and probably would) beat Trump. Problem with Biden is that he has a lot of baggage Trump will expose and on top of that he looks like he could keel over and die at any time. It's just the reality. Yang could beat him, too but that ship has sailed. Time to let it go, folks.

I think if Warren or Bernie get the nod Trump is going to crush them. Warren is going to have some one-line zingers that CNN will play on loop but the reality is that she would get smoked in the debates as a whole. Bernie also looks like he is too old.

Not sure I agree with you on Pete. What percentage of people would rather vote for Trump than a gay guy if they would otherwise vote for Pete? I doubt it's a material number in the states that matter.

Edit: forgot about Klobucher. She can beat Trump but I don't think she has a shot at the nomination so again not really even worth considering.

 

[IrishLax]

Biden and Bloomberg are the only candidates who could (and probably would) beat Trump. Problem with Biden is that he has a lot of baggage Trump will expose and on top of that he looks like he could keel over and die at any time. It's just the reality. Yang could beat him, too but that ship has sailed. Time to let it go, folks.

I think if Warren or Bernie get the nod Trump is going to crush them. Warren is going to have some one-line zingers that CNN will play on loop but the reality is that she would get smoked in the debates as a whole. Bernie also looks like he is too old.

Not sure I agree with you on Pete. What percentage of people would rather vote for Trump than a gay guy if they would otherwise vote for Pete? I doubt it's a material number in the states that matter.

Edit: forgot about Klobucher. She can beat Trump but I don't think she has a shot at the nomination so again not really even worth considering.

Black people. I want to be very clear that I'm not saying all black people are homophobes or anything close to that, but Pete is polling at darn near 0% with black voters. This is an incredibly complex topic with many different viewpoints that I don't really want to get into here, but the scare for Pete is that 25% of the Democratic electorate basically stays home.

 

[NorthDakota]

Black people. I want to be very clear that I'm not saying all black people are homophobes or anything close to that, but Pete is polling at darn near 0% with black voters. This is an incredibly complex topic with many different viewpoints that I don't really want to get into here, but the scare for Pete is that 25% of the Democratic electorate basically stays home.

I'm assuming a decent number of Hispanics as well.

If I recall some polls correctly, black and hispanic views on homosexuality are much further right than the typical white Democrat.

Would be pretty tough to beat The Donald in any swing state if a candidate unpopular with minorities is his opposition.

Biden/Yang/Klobuchar are the only three I could see lining up against The Donald and holding their own.

 

[gkIrish]

Black people. I want to be very clear that I'm not saying all black people are homophobes or anything close to that, but Pete is polling at darn near 0% with black voters. This is an incredibly complex topic with many different viewpoints that I don't really want to get into here, but the scare for Pete is that 25% of the Democratic electorate basically stays home.

I understand all that and know that his poll numbers are bad with blacks but I guess I always thought it was because he was basically an unknown and many people don't know him yet as opposed to Biden and Bernie.

 

[IrishLax]

I understand all that and know that his poll numbers are bad with blacks but I guess I always thought it was because he was basically an unknown and many people don't know him yet as opposed to Biden and Bernie.

There are articles that contradict the idea that Pete's lack of support in the Black community has anything to do with his sexual orientation, but I think the graph in the middle of this article is telling -- https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-voters-reluctant-to-support-a-gay-candidate/

Black (no college education) acceptance of homosexual relationships was around 15% in 1980 and it's still around 15%. White (no college education) acceptance of homosexual relationships was at the same level as blacks in 1980 and it's now 60%. When you're asking people to vote for you, and they overwhelmingly don't approve of who you are, that's a major roadblock IMO. Does that matter in electoral math? Maybe not, if Pete has the right cards to carry Midwestern swing states.

 

[GATTACA!]

Biden and Bloomberg are the only candidates who could (and probably would) beat Trump. Problem with Biden is that he has a lot of baggage Trump will expose and on top of that he looks like he could keel over and die at any time. It's just the reality. Yang could beat him, too but that ship has sailed. Time to let it go, folks.

I think if Warren or Bernie get the nod Trump is going to crush them. Warren is going to have some one-line zingers that CNN will play on loop but the reality is that she would get smoked in the debates as a whole. Bernie also looks like he is too old.

Not sure I agree with you on Pete. What percentage of people would rather vote for Trump than a gay guy if they would otherwise vote for Pete? I doubt it's a material number in the states that matter.

Edit: forgot about Klobucher. She can beat Trump but I don't think she has a shot at the nomination so again not really even worth considering.

Yang would destroy Trump. He consistently beats him by the largest margin of any of the dem candidates.

 

[gkIrish]

Yang would destroy Trump. He consistently beats him by the largest margin of any of the dem candidates.

It doesn't matter because he is not going to win the primary.

 

[GATTACA!]

It doesn't matter because he is not going to win the primary.

Not with that attitude.

 

[gkIrish]

Not with that attitude.

I get the need to pump up your preferred candidate but if your goal is to get Trump out of office you aren't helping anyone by voting for Yang.

I like Yang but it's just not going to happen. He is projecting at 2% for Iowa, 3% New Hampshire, 2% South Carolina, etc. etc. He didn't even qualify for the last debate which means voters in the bigger states probably already think he ended his candidacy.