COVID-19

[yankeehater]

The test results I was waiting on both came back positive so I guess I am one level away. The two people are in NY and although have symptoms are not at an illness level where they have needed hospitalization. The person who had the contact with them is day 11 without symptoms and I am day 5 since my contact. I tell you what the mind is an interesting thing. That is what everyone seems to be fighting with that has had this known interaction. I have been working from home since Tuesday, blessed I can because others even in our company cannot and the office is closed for staff, and will keep away from others especially my Mom and In laws. Lucky I have other family that can handle food, shopping duties for them. Crazy times! Praying for everyone and their families.

 

[BGIF]

<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fthedadonline%2Fvideos%2F212564799824334%2F&show_text=0&width=380" width="380" height="476" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowTransparency="true" allowFullScreen="true"></iframe>

It's 3 o'clock. Do you know where your parents are?


Yeah, grounded.

 

[koonja]

News from the Old People communities here:

My "village" (The Fountains) has stopped all visitors except health and essentials. There is no dining room service anymore --- people make out choices from menus and food is delivered room by room. No activities. Any get-together must have less than ten persons. Catholic Mass was just canceled.

Our neighbor community (Friendship Village) has done all of that plus things like isolating residents to only their own floors. Also they do not allow the USPS to distribute mail into resident boxes, but dump it at front desk and employees sort and deliver to rooms (probably illegal by the letter of the law --- no pun intended.)

My personal life is OK, since I'm in the less restricted village. I can still walk around, go outside and sit by the pond and watch the geese, converse a bit with friends, pick up my mail and post it, but it still has much to be wished for.

Food is still very good --- but no food by fast-food or Grub-Hub delivery. i brought a lot of things with me, so I'm not as deprived as others, and I am resuscitating my old moribund blog to keep me active --- already several hundred folks out there in the world have dropped in to read, and a few have given me nice comments, which helps in these times.

So Fortress Fountains Rises, but life is still pretty good in what matters.

OMM, we could go from some good alien/UFO stories right about now.

A group of ~8 of my friends and I are setting up virtual Code Names tonight. Best board game of 2019.

 

[NDBoiler]

Anybody have any insight into if the more restrictive measures that some states/communities have implemented are showing signs of being effective in limiting spread? I also wonder how long after these measures are implemented would you expect to see results. I would think it would take at least a couple weeks to see some tangible data.

 

[NDohio]

Anybody have any insight into if the more restrictive measures that some states/communities have implemented are showing signs of being effective in limiting spread? I also wonder how long after these measures are implemented would you expect to see results. I would think it would take at least a couple weeks to see some tangible data.

I did see a tweet this AM about the difference between Ohio (aggressive in their measures) vs Louisiana (passive). The numbers in OH were waaaay better than LA. I'll see if I can find those.

 

[Irish2155]

New York 100% work from home

Uh Oh. Is this everybody do you know? I just had a call with NY at 2pm today to adjust schedules (no more than 50% workforce on the shop floor at one time) and at that time manufacturing workers were still good to report. I've been busy with other things since then however, so things certainly could have changed.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

This is an interesting virus. The symptoms are more insidious. It seems like it starts like most colds - sore throat, low grade fever, headache and nasal congestion. Then 7-10 days later the respiratory distress starts for those that get more severe illness.

This is also why it's so difficult for people to wrap their heads around how dangerous it can be. It's also why we are 2-3 weeks behind it right now. Well that and the lack of testing. The testing and ppe are going to be our biggest regrets when we look back on this crisis.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I did see a tweet this AM about the difference between Ohio (aggressive in their measures) vs Louisiana (passive). The numbers in OH were waaaay better than LA. I'll see if I can find those.

I live in Cincinnati and I can tell you people are not listening. Ohio has been very forward thinking but in the absence of military lockdown people wont get it.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Spring break kids are still like:

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/cf526498-9a6e-4d9d-a2ab-15247aec41ae

 

[IrishLax]

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting

What’s scary about Italy’s experience is that Italy wasn’t exactly passive in its response to the virus. The country did act, quarantining a dozen towns in northern regions on February 23, urging the public to engage in social distancing, and ordering the closure of all schools nationwide on March 4.

But case numbers kept growing. On March 8, Italy locked down the north of the country, and on March 9 it extended the lockdown to the whole country. Now, it looks like these extreme efforts might have slowed the rate of growth of cases. On March 15, there were 3,590 new cases. On March 16, 3,233. On the 17th, 3,526. And on the 18th, 4,207. That’s not exponential growth, suggesting the lockdown really did help — but those still aren’t good numbers, especially when Italy’s hospitals are already overwhelmed.

Italy has been devastated by the virus because the action it took was just a little too moderate, a little too restrained, and a little too slow. The country took measures that were substantial and costly but nonetheless insufficient to actually bring the epidemic to a halt.

We're basically taking similar steps as Italy on the same timeline. The major difference is that we have more overall capacity in our hospital system than Italy, so we haven't reached a breaking point yet. But the bottom line is that the more proactive you are (e.g. South Korea) the more quickly you get through this, and the more reactive you are (e.g. Italy) the longer it drags on and the more deaths per capita you're going to have. No matter what, you have to pay the piper at some point because if left unchecked COVID-19 eventually creates more people needing care than you have healthcare infrastructure to effectively treat. And that's when mortality spikes for everything, not just COVID-19, and your country grinds to a halt regardless of whether you wanted to shut it down or not.

 

[GATTACA!]

I have an employee (reports to a manager who reports to me) that has wanted to work from home for quite a while. When the company sent out the memo on guidelines to be able to work from home he asked his manager if he could work from home and was told he couldn't. He's single, no kids and no overwhelming reason other than convenience. He has a separate office so he's not in a cubicle farm.

Yesterday the owner had a meeting with his managers to go over what we as a company are doing and measures we are taking to protect employees.

Today I sent an email to my staff recapping the meeting. No more than a few minutes after sending the email that employee asked me what is required in order to work from home. The guy is persistent! lol

I don't blame him. I'd be annoyed too if I saw everyone around me working from home and I knew the only reason I wasn't being allowed was because everyone assumes I'll pull through if I get the virus.

 

[tussin]

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting

We're basically taking similar steps as Italy on the same timeline. The major difference is that we have more overall capacity in our hospital system than Italy, so we haven't reached a breaking point yet. But the bottom line is that the more proactive you are (e.g. South Korea) the more quickly you get through this, and the more reactive you are (e.g. Italy) the longer it drags on and the more deaths per capita you're going to have. No matter what, you have to pay the piper at some point because if left unchecked COVID-19 eventually creates more people needing care than you have healthcare infrastructure to effectively treat. And that's when mortality spikes for everything, not just COVID-19, and your country grinds to a halt regardless of whether you wanted to shut it down or not.

One thing to keep in mind is that the US has different population dynamics. Italy is an older population, more likely to smoke, very social (kiss each other every time they greet), and more likely to have multigenerational homes.

 

[IrishLax]

One thing to keep in mind is that the US has different population dynamics. Italy is an older population, more likely to smoke, very social (kiss each other every time they greet), and more likely to have multigenerational homes.

All 100% true, which why we're very unlikely to end up with mortality rates in the US anywhere close to Italy. The only neg we have going for us relative to Italians is obesity, and hypertension is being linked to negative outcomes.

 

[Irish YJ]

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting

We're basically taking similar steps as Italy on the same timeline. The major difference is that we have more overall capacity in our hospital system than Italy, so we haven't reached a breaking point yet. But the bottom line is that the more proactive you are (e.g. South Korea) the more quickly you get through this, and the more reactive you are (e.g. Italy) the longer it drags on and the more deaths per capita you're going to have. No matter what, you have to pay the piper at some point because if left unchecked COVID-19 eventually creates more people needing care than you have healthcare infrastructure to effectively treat. And that's when mortality spikes for everything, not just COVID-19, and your country grinds to a halt regardless of whether you wanted to shut it down or not.

Charts like these don't take things like simple context into consideration. Italy has 60M people, while the US has 330M. Also, nearly 200k Americans visit China each month, and 300k Chinese visit the US each month. That's half a million per month of exposure before Trump locked things down. Italy didn't even make the list of either inbound or outbound from China. In short, we've likely had more than 10x the exposure, and we're 5+ X the population of Italy, so you should expect to see massive jumps ahead of the absolute numbers. And using absolutes in itself instead of a per capita stat is an exceptionally flawed way to look at things and measure.

Again, I'm not trying to downplay, or be argumentative, but some of what is being presented lacks very simple context, and is presented in a way that any decent stats person would jump all over.

 

[calvegas04]

I have an employee (reports to a manager who reports to me) that has wanted to work from home for quite a while. When the company sent out the memo on guidelines to be able to work from home he asked his manager if he could work from home and was told he couldn't. He's single, no kids and no overwhelming reason other than convenience. He has a separate office so he's not in a cubicle farm.

Yesterday the owner had a meeting with his managers to go over what we as a company are doing and measures we are taking to protect employees.

Today I sent an email to my staff recapping the meeting. No more than a few minutes after sending the email that employee asked me what is required in order to work from home. The guy is persistent! lol

Why not let him work from home?

 

[loomis41973]

IMO..this shutdown needs to end and soon. The economic destruction will dwarf whatever the Chinese virus will bring. People can feel free to stay home if they choose or go out and take their chances. Again, this is just my opinion although i'm not alone.

 

[Circa]

So not only do you take CNN articles as bible... You put your full faith in the LARGEST governing bodies telling the 100% truth to 350 million?

You've never been involved in anything big where the real tough convos are behind closed doors, have you... My God.

Believe what you want. Keep refreshing CDC.org and CNN websites. I can't stop you.

But stop trying to suffocate people who may have insights beyond what you googled, professor Chaos.

#BoardControl

We all are in some Odd times.



<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/eJjL8RsVk0cU4PgtJJ" width="480" height="270" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/jasperanderrol-viceland-jasper-and-errol-errols-first-time-eJjL8RsVk0cU4PgtJJ"


<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/eK69rwLsVE9j9RqgZ4" width="480" height="480" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/netflix-eK69rwLsVE9j9RqgZ4"

 

[Circa]

IMO..this shutdown needs to end and soon. The economic destruction will dwarf whatever the Chinese virus will bring. People can feel free to stay home if they choose or go out and take their chances. Again, this is just my opinion although i'm not alone.

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/U1aN4HTfJ2SmgB2BBK" width="480" height="313" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/climate-crisis-greta-thunberg-un-action-summit-U1aN4HTfJ2SmgB2BBK">via GIPHY</a></p>

 

[Irish YJ]

IMO..this shutdown needs to end and soon. The economic destruction will dwarf whatever the Chinese virus will bring. People can feel free to stay home if they choose or go out and take their chances. Again, this is just my opinion although i'm not alone.

Our choices are crush the economy, or crush the hospitals (which will spike the death toll) which will increase the panic.

There is no good choice, but just about the entire world is choosing option A. I've considered both options, and discussed scenarios with friends. One buddy thinks it's better to thin the heard in favor of the economy, the other thinks total lock down for two months lol.

Selfishly, I'm only concerned with my mother. Not sure if that's selfish or unselfish. Anyway, the economy will come back, dead people won't. Removing emotion, it's hard weigh the impacts of both scenarios because we have such bad data.

 

[ACamp1900]

Talk of everything being shutdown until late May at least here,... at that point I’m with Loomis in that we should at look really hard at which poison we are forced to pick.

 

[loomis41973]

Had an older client of mine today say "i'd rather die of corona then miss my morning coffee with the boys at McDonalds" "I've had a good run at 87 years old and just want to be happy"

 

[IrishLax]

Charts like these don't take things like simple context into consideration. Italy has 60M people, while the US has 330M. Also, nearly 200k Americans visit China each month, and 300k Chinese visit the US each month. That's half a million per month of exposure before Trump locked things down. Italy didn't even make the list of either inbound or outbound from China. In short, we've likely had more than 10x the exposure, and we're 5+ X the population of Italy, so you should expect to see massive jumps ahead of the absolute numbers. And using absolutes in itself instead of a per capita stat is an exceptionally flawed way to look at things and measure.

Again, I'm not trying to downplay, or be argumentative, but some of what is being presented lacks very simple context, and is presented in a way that any decent stats person would jump all over.

Absolutely, said as much earlier and that's why we're still fine at the same point where Italy was totally overwhelmed. We have roughly 5x the healthcare capacity they do. The real question is trend and at what point we do or do not start leveling off.

 

[Valpodoc85]

Circle the wagons folks, were in it for the long haul.

 

[NorthDakota]

Had an older client of mine today say "i'd rather die of corona then miss my morning coffee with the boys at McDonalds" "I've had a good run at 87 years old and just want to be happy"

Hell yeah old guy

 

[loomis41973]

Circle the wagons folks, were in it for the long haul.

What's IT?

 

[BGIF]

president mentioned currently no plans to "lock-down"

however, i have noticed when rumors of these types of things are said to be coming from president they never have and have always come from the state/governor level. so there has to be some coordination here.

I missed the president's briefing but caught Chuck Todd MSNBC giving his review. He stressed that Trump was very defensive with the media's questions and denied any responsibility. He then switched to a clip of Gov Cuomo taking full responsibility saying, "Don't blame your mayor and council, I'm the one issuing the orders. If you don't like it blame me. I'm the one responsible." Todd commented how refreshing it was to see someone take responsibility.

However Todd made no mention that when DeBlasio wanted to lockdown NYC, Cuomo went ballastic with, "that's my job."

Todd also made no mention that the USA is a republic,so things not specified in the Constitution are left to the states by design. Hence it was appropriate for Trump to mention that measures in CA and NY, the two biggest hit areas may not be appropriate for Idaho or Iowa. due to huge differences in populations and population densities.

 

[Irish YJ]

Had an older client of mine today say "i'd rather die of corona then miss my morning coffee with the boys at McDonalds" "I've had a good run at 87 years old and just want to be happy"

I'm afraid my mother will start thinking that way. It's been hard enough at times to keep her spirits up at her age with cancer. One of my uncles though is much like your client. He's full of vinegar and is tired of the inconvenience and impact to all things. He's old as hell, but something tells me he'd make it through the virus lol.

Talk of everything being shutdown until late May at least here,... at that point I’m with Loomis in that we should at look really hard at which poison we are forced to pick.

The "thin the heard" and pro economy narratives are interesting ones. I'd actually like to see some statistical modeling and factual open debate on all the scenarios. You know that anyone attempting to have these discussions will be immediately attacked with the typical outrage regardless of what the models would tell us.

 

[Irish YJ]

Absolutely, said as much earlier and that's why we're still fine at the same point where Italy was totally overwhelmed. We have roughly 5x the healthcare capacity they do. The real question is trend and at what point we do or do not start leveling off.

I think the trend data, at least the way it is portrayed, doesn't really tell us much. Or at the very least, paints an incredibly deficient or even misleading picture. Even the way that graph defines day 1 is extremely flawed. I sincerely hope that the folks making decisions have better data, and fantastic tier 1 statheads that are void of bias, emotion, and narrative/politics. I'm sure they do, and just don't share the data with us common folks. Instead, we're left with MSM's translation and interpretation of limited and bad data lol... I am however perfectly OK with potential overreaction at this point.

 

[Irish YJ]

I missed the president's briefing but caught Chuck Todd MSNBC giving his review. He stressed that Trump was very defensive with the media's questions and denied any responsibility. He then switched to a clip of Gov Cuomo taking full responsibility saying, "Don't blame your mayor and council, I'm the one issuing the orders. If you don't like it blame me. I'm the one responsible." Todd commented how refreshing it was to see someone take responsibility.

However Todd made no mention that when DeBlasio wanted to lockdown NYC, Cuomo went ballastic with, "that's my job."

Todd also made no mention that the USA is a republic,so things not specified in the Constitution are left to the states by design. Hence it was appropriate for Trump to mention that measures in CA and NY, the two biggest hit areas may not be appropriate for Idaho or Iowa. due to huge differences in populations and population densities.

I've seen so much of this type of crap. I wish these knuckleheads would press pause on their "outrage" for the time being. I mean hell, if Ilhan Omar of all people can press pause, why can't these nitwits.

 

[Circa]

Would love to have that blog name.

People seem to want the negative things out of life in order to alienate themselves, It's there own ability to feel alive by the most mundane things they are close to.
It's not even the bad situations the crowd needs in order to be involved with the Martyr complex. It's just something everyone needs in order to feel apart of 'it'.
I'm very curious about things nobody wants to give answers to, and the people that have the answers use information as a weapon.