COVID-19

tussin

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What it really shows is that it doesn't matter how good your healthcare is if you run out of doctors and beds and supplies. It's still shocking to me that there is any debate about the protocols being put in place. The reason why all these countries are going through quarantines and lockdowns is because you have to flatten the curve before your reach the point of no return. Nobody wants the corresponding economic ruin, but the alternative is collapse of your healthcare system and a different kind of societal/economic upheaval.

These protocols are only worth something if the US is greatly expanding its healthcare capacity at the same time (still up for debate). People aren’t going to stay in their houses indefinitely, we will all leave and the disease will break out. The quarantine is just buying us time to increase capacity and/or hoping for an external factor (warm weather) to kill the disease.
 

IrishLax

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I absolutely agree on needed protocols to slow the spread. I disagree though that health care system type and approach doesn't matter. SKO and other countries for example have done this dance before. SKO has streamlined regs (as opposed to our bloated and slow FDA) and partnered closely with the private sector instead of relying on big gov. In other words, speed. Italy is bloated and is full on big gov, which by the way, people don't trust at all.

And YOU may be concerned about capacity to treat the sick (which is absolutely critical), but these graphs tell us zero about capacity stress. All it shows it absolute numbers since "case 100". Doesn't factor in per capita, population or population density, hospital capacity as it relates % of population, etc... Those are very basic things that are required to understand spread rate and capacity stress. Instead, it's a simpleton look of cases and deaths void of any context or statistical meaning.

Nobody is suggesting that you look at a simple bar graph as some apples-to-apples indicator of how fucked or not fucked a country is. Like I said, the US has roughly 5x the healthcare system capacity of Italy so we're not going to be in situation similar to theirs until we reach similar proportional levels.
 

Irish YJ

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If this were about "sides", then yes. But the issue we had a few weeks ago was lack of available information. I can tell you every doctor I talked to had a similar perspective then. If this information was disseminated to people on the front lines we could have shifted momentum sooner and implored for testing sooner. This is the problem with our health care system. The ones planning and the ones doing are often not privy to the same information. If hospitals were really planning for this for months, as my hospital admins have repeatedly told us, then why the hell are we in this situation now? Who the hell let this happen? Where is the PPE? Where are the tests? How can an economic system as robust as health care sit idly by until we are overcome with the reality of being overwhelmed? These are the questions our healthcare system will be in trial for when this is over.

To focus on the bolded (where are the test).

I've read no less than 20 articles, likely closer to 30-40 on the whole testing debacle. I was pretty floored by some of it. Anyway, several articles were good and factual, many were simply finger pointing attempts from a political perspective. To summarize what I've read collectively, the delays in test were a result of the following

1. Red tape. In short, our regs are bloated and slow.
2. We needed samples of the virus, and they were simply very difficult to get (China didn't help either).
3. The CDC made a choice to create their own tests (which isn't unusual), and the biggest reason IIRC this time was they found inclusive results from testing the WHO tests which were German in origin I think. The CDC chose to use 3 different genes (I think it was genes but don't quote me, it was 3 different something) than the German tests.
4. The reagents were hard to come by (IIRC, most were from Europe)
5. Testing equipment and labs are incredibly different. Hospitals have different equipment than labs, normal labs have different equipment than research, etc. Most testing is at the local level, managed by state, county, etc. so there was simply no standardize means to get everyone on the same page and able to test the same way.
6. Heavy reliance on "gov" and lack of established partnership (or even control) over some private industry. I'm not talking about reg control, I'm talking about "you're going to do this now" type of control. SKO was lightning fast in part because of their partnerships with the private sector instead of heavy reliance on internal gov.


In short, the above are fundamental deficiencies and problems. They are not "this administration" type problems. Some of the problems are long standing deficiencies and reliances, others are unique to the situation. We're learning a lot unfortunately, and I hope this stimulates long term change. The FDA has been a shit show for decades and needs an overhaul. We need to have standardization in labs. We need less reliance on foreign entities. We need to learn from SKO's partnership model.

The Atlantic had a decent article, but was a little finger pointy... The best were scientific journals. A quick google will give you a ton of choices if you're interested.
 

Polish Leppy 22

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These protocols are only worth something if the US is greatly expanding its healthcare capacity at the same time (still up for debate). People aren’t going to stay in their houses indefinitely, we will all leave and the disease will break out. The quarantine is just buying us time to increase capacity and/or hoping for an external factor (warm weather) to kill the disease.

How long Americans stay inside before saying, "screw this, I'm done" is a huge factor, IMO.

There aren't enough cops to keep everyone inside, and we all know what the next level is and how dangerous that could get.
 

Irishize

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Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA-24-1024x546.jpg


https://www.mediterranee-infection....-and-azithromycin-as-a-treatment-of-covid-19/

Plaquenil was originally used as an anti-malarial drug. Then scientists stumbled on the fact that it’s MOA also treated rheumatoid arthritis. It’s generic now so should be relatively cheap. I believe Bayer is donating a large supply for public need.

The other interesting thing about this molecule is that it has very few adverse events that would prevent a patient from continuing to be compliant. For long-term use, there is a concern on losing color in one’s vision but they are instructed to see eye doctor regularly to get ahead of that. I can’t imagine a coronavirus patient needing the drug long enough to cause vision impairment but if so, a simple checkup would prevent it.
 

tussin

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Plaquenil was originally used as an anti-malarial drug. Then scientists stumbled on the fact that it’s MOA also treated rheumatoid arthritis. It’s generic now so should be relatively cheap. I believe Bayer is donating a large supply for public need.

The other interesting thing about this molecule is that it has very few adverse events that would prevent a patient from continuing to be compliant. For long-term use, there is a concern on losing color in one’s vision but they are instructed to see eye doctor regularly to get ahead of that. I can’t imagine a coronavirus patient needing the drug long enough to cause vision impairment but if so, a simple checkup would prevent it.

Kind of hoping on hope with this. There’s no scientific evidence - this wasn’t a proper randomized clinical trial with a control group and a placebo. Also only tested one dosage, allowed people to opt in to the test, and the sample size was 20 people. Could it work? Sure, but don’t put your faith in this.

Source: Wife is a nutritional science PhD with a focus on clinical trials in Alzheimer’s research. Coincidentally, is also on Plaquenil for an autoimmune disease.
 

Irish YJ

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Nobody is suggesting that you look at a simple bar graph as some apples-to-apples indicator of how fucked or not fucked a country is. Like I said, the US has roughly 5x the healthcare system capacity of Italy so we're not going to be in situation similar to theirs until we reach similar proportional levels.

But when Vox or other MSM outlets tweet or lead with this type of graph, they are pushing bullshit and clics IMO. Most don't understand the context, or even understand what they are seeing. They just see lines and say, "oh shit, we're like XXX" and freak out. People have zero clue that we have 5x the capacity of Italy. If anything, a lot of people think Italy has possibly the #1 HC system in the world (which is complete BS and a whole other story), and say "holy cow, if it's happening to them, we're doomed".

Lax, love ya, and you and I are in sync on what needs to occur as far as current protocols, but we're going to disagree on things like this. MSM is churning out garbage and click bait for the most part when it comes to stats and numbers.

Full disclosure. I'm not a statistician or DB guy. But throughout my career I've manage very large organizations with dedicated, or at minimum dotted line stats/analytics teams. One of my best buds from the 2000s was an employee who went on to make serious bank on his own in the data/analytics business (now a provider to several Fort100s). In short, not an "expert", but I can absolutely recognize level of quality.
 

Irishize

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Interesting interview on Martha McCollum's show tonight. Dr Jacob Glanville's whose company in developing a Compassionate Antibody TREATMENT, NOT a vaccine where most of the work seems to be focused. The article that accompanies the interview says that expect the treatment in 3 to 4 weeks. HOWEVER, he doesn't expect it to be delivered until the Fall. IF it works it we still won't be receiving it for 24 weeks ... or so. 6 months.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-jacob-glanville-antibody-neutralize-coronavirus

Yes, a vaccine would be one to one & a half years away. A pharma company was working on one for SARS or MERS (can’t recall specifically) when it was devastating the world. Then the virus seemed to stop in its tracks. The media took it off their top story. The politicians stopped bickering over how to combat it. The vaccine was no longer “needed”. It never got produced b/c the pharma company had to cut its losses.
 
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Irish YJ

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Plaquenil was originally used as an anti-malarial drug. Then scientists stumbled on the fact that it’s MOA also treated rheumatoid arthritis. It’s generic now so should be relatively cheap. I believe Bayer is donating a large supply for public need.

The other interesting thing about this molecule is that it has very few adverse events that would prevent a patient from continuing to be compliant. For long-term use, there is a concern on losing color in one’s vision but they are instructed to see eye doctor regularly to get ahead of that. I can’t imagine a coronavirus patient needing the drug long enough to cause vision impairment but if so, a simple checkup would prevent it.

Yup, I've read the same. Everyone besides CNN and MSNBC seem to look at the data and think it's promising lol... China from what I've read is using it along with some other treatments. Since it is already approved, widely available and even generic, I hope the red tape BS doesn't delay use if it's pretty obvious it's beneficial.
 

Old Man Mike

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I received this statement from a close friend who knows this MD researcher. The researcher is the head of the infectious disease department at the U of M, one of the country's leading research labs on these matters. In my opinion, his opinions are worth passing along.



Dear friends,

In these unprecedented and eerie times I felt the need to send an email with my thoughts and recommendations. Doing so has helped me organize my thoughts and outline a plan forward for myself and my family. Feel free to forward this email to others, or ignore it if you must (I prefer that you don’t do the latter).



To remind folks, I am an infectious diseases specialist and my entire career has been spent in infection prevention. A good chunk of time has been spent on pandemic preparation and response.



So here it goes. Some take home messages and recommendations:

1) This is the real deal. A bona fide serious pandemic. The media is not overreacting.

2) Anthony (Tony) Fauci speaks the truth and has tons of experience – trust his opinions and recommendations

3) This is an unprecedented pandemic in our lifetimes – H1N1 in 2009 was a pandemic but illness was much milder and we had a vaccine and proven treatments and it was somewhat of a known entity being an influenza variant.

4) Practice social distancing – avoid all public places and interactions with others outside of your household except for things like getting food and pharmacy visits (and let me know if you find a good toilet paper source J). This is especially important for older adults and those with serious underlying illnesses – and for those living with or having contact with these high risk people.

5) Walking or running and walking your dog outside is fine – unless your region or area has specific restrictions that don’t allow this. But keep your distance from others except your family/household members

6) Your kids and family members should all practice social distancing. My kids are not seeing friends or socializing outside the house.

7) Remember, if younger people (like your kids) get infected, they will likely become mildly ill or be asymptomatic (although they also can get really sick) – but even if mildly ill or asymptomatic, they can pass the virus on easily to household members and high risk people like older adults (ex grandparents) and people with severe underlying diseases (like those with lung disease and heart disease and immuno-compromised individuals). In high risk people, infection often results in severe illness or death.

8) I anticipate this extreme level of response/social distancing to last likely at least 4-12 more weeks, but I really don’t know – it’s just a guess. The actual outbreak and responses to the outbreak will last much longer, but this extreme phase of containment effort and social distancing will, in my estimation, last a few months.

9) As my fellow ID colleague and close friend John Engemann said, “You will be lucky in a few months if you don’t know someone who dies from COVID-19.”

10) So be a good citizen, practice social distancing, wash your hands a lot (alcohol sanitizer is a good alternative) and have your family do the same. And try to not to drive your family members crazy (or let them drive you crazy) - the house starts to feel small really quickly : )

So be safe, stay home and be a good citizen and spend tons of quality time with your family : )


End of his e-mail.

It is my belief that the virtual lockdown recommendations will last until we get a good test kit well distributed, and a vaccine.
 

Greenore

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Thanks Mike.

Came across this article. I was so pissed off at this selfish SOB who (needlessly) tied up valuable and limited resources and put many others at risk.

Don't be this guy!!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-patient-1.5502501

Be safe and be responsible all!!

Got my daughter back from NY late Thursday night. She is isolated at the ranch for at least 14 days. Big sigh of relief!!

Cheers and Go Irish!!
 

Irish YJ

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In strategic shift, doctors in America's two largest cities are told to skip some coronavirus testing

CNN - Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment.

A news release from the Los Angeles Department of Public Health this week advised doctors not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

The recommendation reflects a "shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality," according to the statement.

The guidance said coronavirus testing at L.A. County public health labs will prioritized those with symptoms, health care workers, residents of long-term care facilities, paramedics and other high-risk situations. Others are encouraged to simply stay at home.

At about the same time, the New York City Department of Health directed all healthcare facilities to immediately stop testing non-hospitalized patients for Covid-19.

“At this point in the pandemic, demand for unnecessary testing is contributing to the rapidly diminishing supply of PPE and leading to a decreasing supply of swabs and viral transport media used to collect diagnostic specimens for Covid-19 testing,” a statement read. “Testing may play a more significant role after the pandemic has peaked.”
 

Legacy

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Stats from France show that their age groups from 45-64 are hospitalized in ICU are almost the same rate (28%) as those 65-74 (29%) and only 9% less than the 75 and over group. (37%).

We have more chronic diseases in those age groups than Europeans overall.
 
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Irish YJ

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Stats from France show that their age groups from 45-64 are hospitalized in ICU are almost the same rate (28%) as those 65-74 (29%) and only 9% less than the 75 and over group. (37%).

We have more chronic diseases in those age groups than Europeans overall.

Italy is considered the 2nd healthiest (US was 35th, France IIRC was not top 10) nation in the world, and is ranked top 5 globally in health care system (France was top 5 too).

Both Italy and France have more smokers per capita than the US, while the US has more obesity than either. Going to guess it's better to be fat than smoke in this case.

I think peoples' attitudes about such ratings/rankings might change significantly after this is all done.

Regarding age, I'd recommend looking at the stats linked earlier.
 

irishtrooper

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Greenore

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God bless you and your family

And to you too Brother!! My daughter was so fortunate to have a lot of New Yorker's that were so kind and generous. Be careful out there and look after your family first. You guys on the frontline are in a tough position... I pray to God that people respect that and govern themselves accordingly, responsibly and respectfully.

God Bless to all!!

Cheers and Go Irish!!
 

Circa

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How long Americans stay inside before saying, "screw this, I'm done" is a huge factor, IMO.

There aren't enough cops to keep everyone inside, and we all know what the next level is and how dangerous that could get.

LEO's have been told to not interact with anyone unless It's a life threatening situation. What we might see Is the National Guard. They have already been mobilized. (In my area)
 

Legacy

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Italy is considered the 2nd healthiest (US was 35th, France IIRC was not top 10) nation in the world, and is ranked top 5 globally in health care system (France was top 5 too).

Both Italy and France have more smokers per capita than the US, while the US has more obesity than either. Going to guess it's better to be fat than smoke in this case.

I think peoples' attitudes about such ratings/rankings might change significantly after this is all done.

Regarding age, I'd recommend looking at the stats linked earlier.

My source from above:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102881/infections-coronavirus-age-france/

U.S. ICU admission by age groups:
5e73b43bc4854047ed3de9d3


The smoking death rate per 100,000 is 141 in Europe. and 138 in the U.S. However the U.S. has more heavy smokers than Europe. (Source)

smoking-eu.jpg


We have more diabetes, obesity and underlying cardiovascular disease. You can post those comparisons. In general, the West Coast is more fit with less of these chronic diseases. When this pandemic hits the more unhealthy regions of the U.S.....
 

Irish YJ

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My source from above:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102881/infections-coronavirus-age-france/

U.S. ICU admission by age groups:
5e73b43bc4854047ed3de9d3


The smoking death rate per 100,000 is 141 in Europe. and 138 in the U.S. However the U.S. has more heavy smokers than Europe. (Source)

smoking-eu.jpg


We have more diabetes, obesity and underlying cardiovascular disease. You can post those comparisons. In general, the West Coast is more fit with less of these chronic diseases. When this pandemic hits the more unhealthy regions of the U.S.....

I'm looking at country specific, as opposed to EU average. Italy's consumption per person is significantly more than the US. Italy averages 1493.3 cigs pp/py, compared to US at 1016.6. That's a huge delta. France is closer to the US than Italy. In terms of obesity, the US is behind, but the delta is not near as big. BIMA for the US is 28.8, Italy is 26 (UK, Ireland, and a few more are 27s). Comparatively, Japan (considered good), is in the 22s.
 

Circa

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Has anyone else watched the Governor of NY? It's off topic but very interesting that he has a dumb phone. I just wonder how many secrets they need to have in order to have to go to those lengths.
 

Circa

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NY Governor just stated that N95 masks that normally cost 80 cents are now being sold for $4.00.
People wonder why Trump has enemies and I'm not sure how I feel about this situation. I will say the price gouging Is un-American and inhumane.
This shouldn't be able to happen and we the tax payers are going to fit the bill.

Btw. I have some hard nosed friends in NY. After listening to Andrew Cuomo speak I'm ready to elect him to the Presidency. I love this guy. He gets it, and we really need someone of his calibre to state the facts.
 
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Legacy

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A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients
“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy shit, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.”

“Reading about it in the news, I knew it was going to be bad, but we deal with the flu every year so I was thinking: Well, it’s probably not that much worse than the flu. But seeing patients with COVID-19 completely changed my perspective, and it’s a lot more frightening.”

This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people.

“I have patients in their early 40s and, yeah, I was kind of shocked. I’m seeing people who look relatively healthy with a minimal health history, and they are completely wiped out, like they’ve been hit by a truck. This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people. Patients will be on minimal support, on a little bit of oxygen, and then all of a sudden, they go into complete respiratory arrest, shut down and can’t breathe at all.”

They suddenly become unresponsive or go into respiratory failure.

“We have an observation unit in the hospital, and we have been admitting patients that had tested positive or are presumptive positive — these are patients that had been in contact with people who were positive. We go and check vitals on patients every four hours, and some are on a continuous cardiac monitor, so we see that their heart rate has a sudden increase or decrease, or someone goes in and sees that the patient is struggling to breathe or is unresponsive. That seems to be what happens to a lot of these patients: They suddenly become unresponsive or go into respiratory failure.”
 
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