COVID-19

[GATTACA!]

I just watched a show that was saying all of our hospitals run normally at maximum capacity. I guess I should have known that because I have been with family members who were told we are waiting for a room to open up to admit them. Not sure why this is still true in this day and age in the US.

Because empty beds are a waste of resources and hospitals are geared towards maximizing profits.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Agree to disagree about what?

Are you trying to say that containment doesn't work? Or are you saying we should tough it out not contain it and let 100,000 people die like they did in 1968?

Disagree on the absolute panic, mob mentality and fear mongering and of litigation that has gripped our country to the point that you can't buy toilet paper.

Disagree in a few teams playing in empty stadiums being a factor at all. I get the nightly nba and NHL grind though.

I get it, it's like a bad flu year Thousands and thousands of Americans die every year from the flu. Contain it? Are you going to shut down every bank, gas station, fast food place, movie theatre, doctors office and store in the country? Should we all call out at work going forward? It will just have to run its course.
I grew up under the daily threat of nuclear annihilation so I guess this stuff doesn't make me panic like a girl like some people. I'm not saying you but I'm seeing it every day.

It sucks but this too shall pass. I'll watch the Indy car and Nascar races this weekend....hopefully. No hard feelings and like I said last post, we can agree to disagree on some things.

 

[koonja]

Disagree on the absolute panic, mob mentality and fear mongering and of litigation that has gripped our country to the point that you can't buy toilet paper.

Disagree in a few teams playing in empty stadiums being a factor at all. I get the nightly nba and NHL grind though.

I get it, it's like a bad flu year Thousands and thousands of Americans die every year from the flu. Contain it? Are you going to shut down every bank, gas station, fast food place, movie theatre, doctors office and store in the country? Should we all call out at work going forward? It will just have to run its course.
I grew up under the daily threat of nuclear annihilation so I guess this stuff doesn't make me panic like a girl like some people. I'm not saying you but I'm seeing it every day.

It sucks but this too shall pass. I'll watch the Indy car and Nascar races this weekend....hopefully. No hard feelings and like I said last post, we can agree to disagree on some things.

Don't underestimate how many people have nothing better to do. Their lives are meaningless so getting behind the fear porn gives them something to part of something.

I genuinely hope I get it soon just so I can get through it before the nice part of spring starts. Not my first virus.

 

[NDdomer2]

What I am seeing is not only a mob mentality, but a complete CYA mentality. They were discussing the possible legal ramifications if someone were to get ill so just error on the side of caution. My wife's company is closing Monday for two weeks. What will change in two weeks? There will more than likely be more cases than less so what do they decide to do then? Are they now covered if someone does get ill when they return.....well, the the authorities said it was OK......

And the other thing about everyone jumping on the "let's just close for a couple weeks" train is what happens when manufacturers of ppe and dme decide to take that route in the middle of a potential run on the health system who already doesn't prepare emergency stock of inventory. It's just a bit nearsighted to think hiding for a short period is any sort of real solution. Unfortunately it's the best one people have come up with because of so many truly unknows at this point.

 

[Circa]

I just watched a show that was saying all of our hospitals run normally at maximum capacity. I guess I should have known that because I have been with family members who were told we are waiting for a room to open up to admit them. Not sure why this is still true in this day and age in the US.

The Computers are running slow at times. They need all of your information and to make sure they profit off of every band aid used, they look up every band aid used since the inception of hospitals....
Your Info info has to go through billing at most hospitals before your even seen, (unless life threatening...) and they use call centers in China for those too.....

In Other Words. Just build a bunker

 

[Ndaccountant]

And the other thing about everyone jumping on the "let's just close for a couple weeks" train is what happens when manufacturers of ppe and dme decide to take that route in the middle of a potential run on the health system who already doesn't prepare emergency stock of inventory. It's just a bit nearsighted to think hiding for a short period is any sort of real solution. Unfortunately it's the best one people have come up with because of so many truly unknows at this point.

 

[NDdomer2]

As someone born 70 years after this I'm assuming social distancing then isn't quite what were doing now?

 

[BobbyMac]

Einhorn is Finkle & Koon is Dr Drew.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dr Drew is awesome! I’ve been a huge fan since his radio days with Adam Carolla! Super smart and always on point.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#coronavirus</a> <a href="https://t.co/g9rfHbv6UY">pic.twitter.com/g9rfHbv6UY</a></p>— Modern_Rock (@modern_rock) <a href="https://twitter.com/modern_rock/status/1235678939118358529?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Please take a moment to look at this common sense from <a href="https://twitter.com/drdrew?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@drdrew</a> regarding the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CoronavirusPanic?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CoronavirusPanic</a>.<br><br>Source: <a href="https://t.co/Y6CYGyITGl">https://t.co/Y6CYGyITGl</a><br><br>Video: <a href="https://t.co/JWDTi0OBSm">pic.twitter.com/JWDTi0OBSm</a></p>— Yossi Gestetner (@YossiGestetner) <a href="https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1236876520012091394?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 9, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Truth <a href="https://t.co/gSEqOyKbkg">https://t.co/gSEqOyKbkg</a></p>— Dr Drew (@drdrew) <a href="https://twitter.com/drdrew/status/1235976825580511233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 6, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Circa]

Obviously, these are scare tactics being thrown around. To compare this to 1918 is irresponsible and dangerous.
(i don't mean on your part NDA)

 

[Ndaccountant]

As someone born 70 years after this I'm assuming social distancing then isn't quite what were doing now?

Basically it's the same.

They closed churches, schools, libraries, courtrooms, etc. Based on the larger study that helped generate that graph, the city also banned all gatherings greater than 20 people, essentially shut down public transport, staggered work schedules, etc. So, basically everything that is happening now.

Phili on the other hand, went ahead with a massive parade to send of soldiers to WWI. Jamming all those people together spread the flu and within 3 days their local hospitals were at capacity.

 

[GATTACA!]

Obviously, these are scare tactics being thrown around. To compare this to 1918 is irresponsible and dangerous.

He's not comparing it to 1918, that's just an illustration of the effectiveness of social distancing.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Obviously, these are scare tactics being thrown around. To compare this to 1918 is irresponsible and dangerous.

The point is that two different cities did two different things to combat the flu then. The results speak for themselves.

Nobody is saying millions are going to die. Far from it. But if you can't look at that graph and understand the value of hitting pause for a few weeks, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[GATTACA!]

Einhorn is Finkle & Koon is Dr Drew.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dr Drew is awesome! I’ve been a huge fan since his radio days with Adam Carolla! Super smart and always on point.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#coronavirus</a> <a href="https://t.co/g9rfHbv6UY">pic.twitter.com/g9rfHbv6UY</a></p>— Modern_Rock (@modern_rock) <a href="https://twitter.com/modern_rock/status/1235678939118358529?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I was glassin' this video earlier and damn Dr Drew's jeans are so high and tight. I hope he keeps featherin' it and telling the media what's what. If I spotted him on the streets I'd tell him "FUCK! YOU GUYS ARE DOING GOOD! STOP BY LATER FOR SOME MOOSE SOUP!".

 

[Henges24]

Michigan has closed schools starting Monday for 3 weeks.

 

[NDdomer2]

Basically it's the same.

They closed churches, schools, libraries, courtrooms, etc. Based on the larger study that helped generate that graph, the city also banned all gatherings greater than 20 people, essentially shut down public transport, staggered work schedules, etc. So, basically everything that is happening now.

Phili on the other hand, went ahead with a massive parade to send of soldiers to WWI. Jamming all those people together spread the flu and within 3 days their local hospitals were at capacity.

Got ya, I guess life hasn't progressrd as much as I thought in 100 years. I was making a false assumption shutting down school and work then vs now was quite different.

Just to be clear I'm not saying people should be going about life as usually and going all Rudy gobert at social events. I'm just also not sure thinking stopping life for 14 days is going to put people at less risk of getting this.

 

[Cali_domer]

I am shocked California has not closed schools. We have a ton of cases.

 

[BeauBenken]

Good grief. Our country today would have folded in half during the Spanish flu of 1918 or even the 1957 Asian flu and 1968 Hong Kong flu.

1918, hmm, I wonder why that got so bad?

In a report by the Indianapolis Star in November 1918, 3,266 Indiana residents died from the influenza. At Fort Benjamin Harrison, it was reported 3,116 cases of influenza and 521 cases of pneumonia were treated.

Fort Benjamin Harrison, which was once a training site, became a hospital in 1918 for wounded soldiers. However, the fort and other training posts near Indianapolis started having reports of soldiers becoming ill.

Because little was known about the influenza, as it spread across training camps full of young men, it soon made its way into civilian areas as well.

Early reports regarding alarming amounts of those infected with the influenza were made to sound as if the problem was nonexistent or not nearly as bad as most would believe in order to retain morale for the war. This included the “Indianapolis News” and medical officers making early reports that said there was no epidemic.

By October of that year, around 650 sick men were reported in Fort Benjamin Harrison, which was low on nurses.

“Refugees crowding cities, malnutrition, and shortages of doctors, nurses, and effective medications all contributed to the pandemic’s rapid spread and high rates of death,” Davis writes. “But it was the movement of troops — with men crowded together in barracks, tents, and trenches and jammed onto railroad trains and ocean-going troop transports — that was most responsible for the spread of the Spanish flu.”

 

[Ndaccountant]

Got ya, I guess life hasn't progressrd as much as I thought in 100 years. I was making a false assumption shutting down school and work then vs now was quite different.

Just to be clear I'm not saying people should be going about life as usually and going all Rudy gobert at social events. I'm just also not sure thinking stopping life for 14 days is going to put people at less risk of getting this.

IMO, it's not about if you get it, nor what the death rate is. It's more about how to make sure everyone doesn't get it all in a short burst.

 

[NDdomer2]

IMO, it's not about if you get it, nor what the death rate is. It's more about how to make sure everyone doesn't get it all in a short burst.

Which I understand. But does shutting down life need to take place to make this happen or does limiting interaction, keeping good personal space, cleaning ourselves and for the love of God stop coming to work sick do a good enough job?

Perhaps we can't get people to do these things and that's why things have to be drastic.

Second - it seems weird to me that we can say ok not everyone get sick this month, everyone get sick next month deal?

 

[BeauBenken]

I am shocked California has not closed schools. We have a ton of cases.

Universities are not closing?


Public schools are almost a necessity for the populace. People do not know how to function if they suddenly lose their free childcare. You close the schools and you're putting everyone home. I think that is why we have seen delays on that end.


Indiana will see schools closing soon though. Governor has passed emergency procedures allowing schools to be exempt of 20 of their mandated 180 days.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Which I understand. But does shutting down life need to take place to make this happen or does limiting interaction, keeping good personal space, cleaning ourselves and for the love of God stop coming to work sick do a good enough job?

Perhaps we can't get people to do these things and that's why things have to be drastic.

Second - it seems weird to me that we can say ok not everyone get sick this month, everyone get sick next month deal?

It's not that simple. These viruses prevent a unique public health risk because: (1) they're extremely contagious; and (2) there's an incubation period of 5-7 days where you can infect others without showing any symptoms yourself. So the only way to slow the spread is to quarantine everyone for a couple weeks. That ensures that everyone with the disease will become symptomatic, which allows them to be tested, and then the authorities can trace who they were exposed to, etc. Without the quarantine, it spreads exponentially until your hospital system collapses.

 

[Woneone]

It's not that simple. These viruses prevent a unique public health risk because: (1) they're extremely contagious; and (2) there's an incubation period of 5-7 days where you can infect others without showing any symptoms yourself. So the only way to slow the spread is to quarantine everyone for a couple weeks. That ensures that everyone with the disease will become symptomatic, which allows them to be tested, and then the authorities can trace who they were exposed to, etc. Without the quarantine, it spreads exponentially until your hospital system collapses.

I don't believe that there is a consensus that transmission is possible before symptoms occur: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

While I don't think quarantine is a bad thing in this case, we continue to speak in absolutes about a strain that we don't know very much about.

 

[GATTACA!]

Which I understand. But does shutting down life need to take place to make this happen or does limiting interaction, keeping good personal space, cleaning ourselves and for the love of God stop coming to work sick do a good enough job?

Perhaps we can't get people to do these things and that's why things have to be drastic.

Second - it seems weird to me that we can say ok not everyone get sick this month, everyone get sick next month deal?

Early indications are that this is primarily an airborne transmission. Washing your hands and staying out of people's personal space can't hurt, but just being in people's proximity is enough assuming you're all breathing.

Closing schools is actually pretty important because the rate of infection amongst children is very low, but they can still carry the virus around. So they're walking petri dishes that we can't tell if they're infected because almost none of them present symptoms.

 

[Irish YJ]

Anyone seen the stuff going around SM about Dean Koontz's 1981 book calling for a Wuhan 400 virus in 2020? Not a perfect like for like for sure, but strange as hell.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...d-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I

 

[Sea Turtle]

Anyone seen the stuff going around SM about Dean Koontz's 1981 book calling for a Wuhan 400 virus in 2020? Not a perfect like for like for sure, but strange as hell.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...d-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I

The virus in World War Z was from the place in the book, I believe.

 

[Legacy]

I don't believe that there is a consensus that transmission is possible before symptoms occur: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

While I don't think quarantine is a bad thing in this case, we continue to speak in absolutes about a strain that we don't know very much about.

A lot of good information on the natual history of COVID 19 is emerging not only looking at its epidemiology and interviews but by reseachers using PCR — polymerase chain reaction — measuring for tiny sections of the RNA of the virus. That indicates whether and how much a patient is shedding viral debris.

People with Covid-19 are emitting more than 1,000 times more virus than was emitted during peak shedding of SARS infection - and earlier. Researchers found very high levels of COVID 19 virus emitted from the throat of patients from the earliest point in their illness —when people are generally still going about their daily routines. Viral shedding dropped after day 5 in all but two of the nine patients studied, had more serious illness. The two, who developed early signs of clinical pneumonia, continued to shed high levels of virus from the throat until about day 10 or 11.

Those who are only mildly sick are likely not still infectious by about 10 days after they start to experience symptoms. Results from interviews of those termed as asymptomatic are that it is truly rare. All patients with COVID 19 demonstrate some level of pneumonia with the lowest level being sub-clinical.

The earlier and greater peak of viral shedding may account for the rapid spread of confirmed Covid-19 cases that has already topped 125,000. With SARS, peak shedding of virus occurred later, when the virus had moved into the deep lungs. The SARS outbreak was contained after about 8,000 cases and the outbreak (as well as MERS) was mostly in hospitals.

Also, people who are infected begin to develop antibodies to the virus quickly, typically within six to 12 days. There is no evidence that people can get "re-infected". The rapid rise of antibodies may explain why about 80% of people infected with the virus do not develop severe disease.

Findings suggest measures to try to stop spread of the virus should focus on respiratory tract transmission — protecting others from the coughs and sneezes of people infected with the virus. People with mild infections can still test positive by throat swabs for days and even weeks after their illness, but are not infectious as measured by cultures.

WHO estimates the worldwide fatality rate at 3.4%. With twenty percent of people infected with COVID 19 having that severe form of the disease, that means approximately one in seven of them will die.

 

[BobbyMac]

WHO estimates the worldwide fatality rate at 3.4%. With twenty percent of people infected with COVID 19 having that severe form of the disease, that means approximately one in seven of them will die.

Didn't Dr Drew say the 3.4% relates to known cases only? Meaning 3.4% of people who get the virus don't die. 3.4% of people who are tested and confirmed to have had the virus die.

 

[Irish#1]

Michigan has closed schools starting Monday for 3 weeks.

All public school systems in Indy are closed. Several other school systems in the greater Indy metro ares are also closed.

 

[Irish#1]

You've got to love those Chinese commies. Always go on the media warpath to dispel anything negative about their country. Trying to claim our military brought Corona over to China.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/asia/china-coronavirus-us-lijian-zhao-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[NDdomer2]

It's not that simple. These viruses prevent a unique public health risk because: (1) they're extremely contagious; and (2) there's an incubation period of 5-7 days where you can infect others without showing any symptoms yourself. So the only way to slow the spread is to quarantine everyone for a couple weeks. That ensures that everyone with the disease will become symptomatic, which allows them to be tested, and then the authorities can trace who they were exposed to, etc. Without the quarantine, it spreads exponentially until your hospital system collapses.

I agree my comments are simplistic in nature and this is very complicated. But I think that's also what I'm wondering as far as is two weeks too simplistic. Considering the lack of any real data on the number actually infected, and the inability to ever test everyone we would need to do any comprehensive tracing of exposure. (See Ohio governor's estimate on actual infected and requirements needed for actual testing). At around 2.2 infection rate (vs 1.1 for influenza) that 100k in Ohio is about 1.6m in ~ two weeks time. The curve may already be on the lift hill climb so to speak.

Early indications are that this is primarily an airborne transmission. Washing your hands and staying out of people's personal space can't hurt, but just being in people's proximity is enough assuming you're all breathing.

Closing schools is actually pretty important because the rate of infection amongst children is very low, but they can still carry the virus around. So they're walking petri dishes that we can't tell if they're infected because almost none of them present symptoms.

I understand how it's passed for sure by not being at work or school doesn't exactly stop the general public from being in people's proximity. For instance if I was a college kid getting 3 weeks spring break and not getting to go to Florida I'm creating spring break where I currently reside.

As to kids just a random outside the box thought-Wouldn't infecting individuals with lower contagion rates be ideal for curve flattening though? I'm not proposing infecting the world's youth as a solution.