COVID-19

[Circa]

We are in uncharted territory. Better buckle up, this is just the beginning of something.

 

[loomis41973]

Froze everything on my birthday Feb. 28th. TG. Wish I was 20 days smarter.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

8 weeks from now this will be over. But it will be interesting to see what transpires between now and then.

 

[loomis41973]

90% of this is media driven hype. The media is hell bent on bringing Trump down with this.

 

[Wild Bill]

90% of this is media driven hype. The media is hell bent on bringing Trump down with this.

You think Italy has the same motive with their decision to lock down the entire country?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

You think Italy has the same motive with their decision to lock down the entire country?

They're all in on it. The ~12,500 confirmed cases and 800+ deaths in Italy? An anti-Trump scam.

 

[SouthSideChiDomer]

90% of this is media driven hype. The media is hell bent on bringing Trump down with this.

With him refusing to follow guidelines and breaking quarantines, its more likely he gets brought down by the virus than by the media.

 

[Ndaccountant]

They're all in on it. The ~12,500 confirmed cases and 800+ deaths in Italy? An anti-Trump scam.

That just HOW BADLY people want him out. Such extreme measures. SAD!

 

[Irish YJ]

You think Italy has the same motive with their decision to lock down the entire country?

"Media Driven" is probably not a good descriptor, but what I assume he was trying to convey is that there is too much Orange Man bad going on, and that comparatively, past situations like H1N1 which killed 12k Americans in a year, were not hyped near as much, nor acted upon nearly as quickly by the former administration. In terms of Orange Man bad, they criticized him at the onset for banning China travel. Bernie said it was a terrible call, and Old Joe said it was xenophobic. Had that not been done, the doctors said this situation would have been much, much worse. Italy, which was slow to react with similar actions, is now in chaos.

 

[Legacy]

The potential numbers in the U.S. are daunting. Richard Waldhorn, a pulmonary critical care physician who's studied hospital preparedness for the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security co-wrote an article arguing that American hospitals should prepare for the possibility of too many patients.

"The arithmetic suggests that we will outstrip hospital resources, particularly intensive care resources, in waves as the pandemic spreads," he says.

He says government planning assumptions based on past flu pandemics suggest a surge in demand for intensive care that could range somewhere between 200,000 thousand and 2.9 million patients.

The American Hospital Association says the total number of Intensive Care Unit beds is about 65,000.

. (Source)

Five days ago, Evergreen Med Ctr in Kirkland, WA had one ICU bed available. A week ago they were converting more sections of its buildings into "negative pressure wards," in which HVAC systems keep germs from spreading. They have been talking with other facilities to take transfers and divert incoming patients to other facilities if possible in the Seattle area. Evergreen is also a Level 1 Trauma Center and will continue to take those critical Trauma cases. Other hospitals not yet hit hard may be in the process of creating negative pressure wards to deal with expected cases.

Critical Care Units staff ratio is one nurse to two patients, but sometimes one to one and work twelve hour shifts. For a full thirty bed unit over a two shift twenty-four hour period requires thirty nurses (fifteen for days, fifteen for nights), if two to one. Over the course of a week, you need critical care nurses to fill two hundred and ten shifts (thirty times seven). A full time nurse works three twelve hour shifts per week. In places like Kirkland where the virus was spreading before they could diagnosis or had tests available, healthcare staff including critical care nurses, were sent home to self-quarantine for two weeks after testing positive for COVID.

In general, hospitals are part of local alliances and have disaster plans for their hospitals and to interact and cooperate among each other in such situations.

 

[BobbyMac]

I guess Hanks wasn't the first celebrity after all.

 

[Irish#1]

 

[Irish#1]

 

[Irish#1]

"Media Driven" is probably not a good descriptor, but what I assume he was trying to convey is that there is too much Orange Man bad going on, and that comparatively, past situations like H1N1 which killed 12k Americans in a year, were not hyped near as much, nor acted upon nearly as quickly by the former administration. In terms of Orange Man bad, they criticized him at the onset for banning China travel. Bernie said it was a terrible call, and Old Joe said it was xenophobic. Had that not been done, the doctors said this situation would have been much, much worse. Italy, which was slow to react with similar actions, is now in chaos.

Trump has also issued a travel ban from Europe to here.

Most conference tournaments along with the NCAA now played without spectators. NHL and MLB will make decisions within the next couple of days. Ivy League cancels spring sports.

 

[IrishLax]

You think Italy has the same motive with their decision to lock down the entire country?

They're all in on it. The ~12,500 confirmed cases and 800+ deaths in Italy? An anti-Trump scam.

There is no way anyone with a brain can look at what's happening in Italy and not understand the importance of treating this seriously. To call concern over the Coronavirus a "hoax" or to pretend there aren't concrete reasons to want to slow the spread is ludicrous.

 

[Irish#1]

There is no way anyone with a brain can look at what's happening in Italy and not understand the importance of treating this seriously. To call concern over the Coronavirus a "hoax" or to pretend there aren't concrete reasons to want to slow the spread is ludicrous.

Definitely not a hoax. How else do you explain the numbers? Just heard there are no deaths reported for kids 10 and under. Sounds like more focus should be on the elderly and those with some type of preexisting condition.

South Korea has had a great response to the virus. Being reported 99.3% of those confirmed with the virus are surviving.

Also mentioned the Corona virus is less contagious than the flu. Taking all of these precautions, this should pass in the not too distant future.

 

[ACamp1900]

All I’m saying is that Jenny couldn’t take out Forrest with her AIDS but he gets covid19????

Jenny had Hep,... not AIDS,... damn conspiracy theorists,...

 

[BeauBenken]

There is no way anyone with a brain can look at what's happening in Italy and not understand the importance of treating this seriously. To call concern over the Coronavirus a "hoax" or to pretend there aren't concrete reasons to want to slow the spread is ludicrous.

Worst thing is when this is effectively slowed down and effectively handled (hopefully) that these same people will point and say, "see, I told you it wasn't that bad!"

 

[317Irish]

Worst thing is when this is effectively slowed down and effectively handled (hopefully) that these same people will point and say, "see, I told you it wasn't that bad!"

It puts them in a win-win position!

 

[IrishLax]

Worst thing is when this is effectively slowed down and effectively handled (hopefully) that these same people will point and say, "see, I told you it wasn't that bad!"

Yup. And I get it, there was a lot of confusion a few days ago on what the response should be, what the risks are, etc.

But when you contrast the Italy situation to the South Korea situation it becomes apparent why you need to be proactive on this and what the "worst case" scenario is (i.e. overwhelming your healthcare system).

 

[Irishnuke]

Worst thing is when this is effectively slowed down and effectively handled (hopefully) that these same people will point and say, "see, I told you it wasn't that bad!"

This is exactly what is going to happen. "I didn't die so it's not that serious."

 

[irishtrooper]

"Media Driven" is probably not a good descriptor, but what I assume he was trying to convey is that there is too much Orange Man bad going on, and that comparatively, past situations like H1N1 which killed 12k Americans in a year, were not hyped near as much, nor acted upon nearly as quickly by the former administration. In terms of Orange Man bad, they criticized him at the onset for banning China travel. Bernie said it was a terrible call, and Old Joe said it was xenophobic. Had that not been done, the doctors said this situation would have been much, much worse. Italy, which was slow to react with similar actions, is now in chaos.

Well stated.

 

[Wild Bill]

Yup. And I get it, there was a lot of confusion a few days ago on what the response should be, what the risks are, etc.

But when you contrast the Italy situation to the South Korea situation it becomes apparent why you need to be proactive on this and what the "worst case" scenario is (i.e. overwhelming your healthcare system).

My wife works for an academic medical center in Chicago and they're nervous about being stretched thin and frankly are underprepared for the volume of people they may have to treat. This is the best or second best hospital in Chicago and they're underprepared. Imagine how unprepared some of our community hospitals will be if this thing isn't contained.

 

[GowerND11]

Jenny had Hep,... not AIDS,... damn conspiracy theorists,...

I'm glad someone spoke truth!

 

[koonja]

Diseases that kill more people per day in 2020 than Coronavirus. A surgeon texted me this:

Yellow Fever
Rabies
Whooping Cough
Measels
Seasonal Flu (2,000% more)
Pneumonia (4,000% more)
Meningitis.... Meningitis
Cholera

And about 100 others I've never heard of.

 

[IrishLion]

Diseases that kill more people per day in 2020 than Coronavirus. A surgeon texted me this:

Yellow Fever
Rabies
Whooping Cough
Measels
Seasonal Flu (2,000% more)
Pneumonia (4,000% more)
Meningitis.... Meningitis
Cholera

And about 100 others I've never heard of.

My understanding of potential "bad news" isn't the amount of people that die from coronavirus.

The problem is if/when hundreds of thousands of people are infected in areas with high population density, and hospitals don't have the staff/resources to prioritize patients based on who needs breathing treatment, and who needs actual help via ventilators and breathing tubes.

That's what the problem is in Italy right now.

South Korea and (kind of) China mitigated those issues well once they got their field hospitals up, but the US response thus far doesn't encourage faith that it will be handled in such a well-managed fashion.

I'm not in a panic, but I also think the "brush it off, the survival rate is really high" messaging kind of misses the mark about how this could turn into a big deal DESPITE the high survival rate.

 

[koonja]

My understanding of potential "bad news" isn't the amount of people that die from coronavirus.

The problem is if/when hundreds of thousands of people are infected in areas with high population density, and hospitals don't have the staff/resources to prioritize patients based on who needs breathing treatment, and who needs actual help via ventilators and breathing tubes.

That's what the problem is in Italy right now.

South Korea and (kind of) China mitigated those issues well once they got their field hospitals up, but the US response thus far doesn't encourage faith that it will be handled in such a well-managed fashion.

I'm not in a panic, but I also think the "brush it off, the survival rate is really high" messaging kind of misses the mark about how this could turn into a big deal DESPITE the high survival rate.

I get the socialization impact and lack of treatment centers. But unless you're 80 the treatment plan is basically "go home and take it easy for 2 weeks".

People will get it, likely many already do because it's under-reported due to how new it is and lack of testing. One one hand, you can panic knowing there are many more cases, or you can look at it as the current "mortality" rate is likely wildly over stated and it's not nearly as lethal as it sounds.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Diseases that kill more people per day in 2020 than Coronavirus. A surgeon texted me this:

Yellow Fever
Rabies
Whooping Cough
Measels
Seasonal Flu (2,000% more)
Pneumonia (4,000% more)
Meningitis.... Meningitis
Cholera

And about 100 others I've never heard of.

There is no way anyone with a brain can look at what's happening in Italy and not understand the importance of treating this seriously. To call concern over the Coronavirus a "hoax" or to pretend there aren't concrete reasons to want to slow the spread is ludicrous

 

[317Irish]

Diseases that kill more people per day in 2020 than Coronavirus. A surgeon texted me this:

Yellow Fever
Rabies
Whooping Cough
Measels
Seasonal Flu (2,000% more)
Pneumonia (4,000% more)
Meningitis.... Meningitis
Cholera

And about 100 others I've never heard of.

Will this remain true when coronavirus hits its peak in the US? Or is it your belief that it has already peaked in terms of daily casualties?

 

[PerthDomer]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=9mrPHO-nkVE average pt in Italy ICU'S Is 65. They have 20 year olds on vents. Given our average population age I'd peg our average ICU age closer to 60. This isn't fine and dandy for the average adult in the US.