COVID-19

[PerthDomer]

The best thing for the economy is getting COVID right and early. You need hospitals to have the capacity to do elective cases. You need testing and public health capacity to do infection tracing and isolation. If you open it up too early and too quickly this surges up. We get overwhelmed, and people panic. If we shut down a week earlier and had geared up testing a month before we did we'd not be totally open but at least out of lockdown by now.

 

[wizards8507]

Not to mention shit like this.

https://www.courant.com/coronavirus...0200406-evquspj4azd7blde6kcj7pxwku-story.html

The cure is absolutely worse than the disease right now. I'm on team "reopen everything, immediately, without restriction." Let people decide for themselves if they want to live in a bubble.

 

[IrishLion]

You don't see how one begets the other? Most people get the flu and they don't even call their doctor, let alone go to the emergency room. They buy a case of Gatorade and try to sleep as much as possible. Now, you get the flu and you're all "OH MY GOD I'M GOING TO FUCKING DIE!" and you admit to the hospital for two weeks. The fear-mongering is causing (in part) the run on the hospitals.

That's true, but if you're running to the hospital without need because you're a paranoid hypochondriac that has been terrified by the media, they still send you home.

The issue is the amount of people that legitimately need a hospital bed or even ventilator when they have COVID. Managing that number is a bigger worry than figuring a definitive death rate right now, IMO.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

You don't see how one begets the other? Most people get the flu and they don't even call their doctor, let alone go to the emergency room. They buy a case of Gatorade and try to sleep as much as possible. Now, you get the flu and you're all "OH MY GOD I'M GOING TO FUCKING DIE!" and you admit to the hospital for two weeks. The fear-mongering is causing (in part) the run on the hospitals.

If this were true we would expect the mortality rate for covid hospitalizations to be extremely low.

 

[wizards8507]

The issue is the amount of people that legitimately need a hospital bed or even ventilator when they have COVID. Managing that number is a bigger worry than figuring a definitive death rate right now, IMO.

I disagree. There needs to be some calculus of "are we doing more harm than good?" and you can't assess that accurately if one side of the ledger is mush.

 

[wizards8507]

If this were true we would expect the mortality rate for covid hospitalizations to be extremely low.

Do we have that statistic relative to other diseases?

 

[PerthDomer]

People now generally only go to the ED if they're really sick. One reason we have more capacity than we thought is social distancing really killed off the flu/other viruses and people staying home significantly decreased trauma.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Do we have that statistic relative to other diseases?

I'm looking now...

I just pulled a random year on influenza where the data was completely modeled. In this case 2017-2018 flu season:

According to an estimate by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were approximately 45 million cases of the flu in the United States during the 2017-2018 influenza season, resulting in an estimated 810,000 flu-associated hospitalizations and an estimated 61,000 flu-associated deaths.

So 1.8% hospitalization rate and deaths/hospitalizations is 7.5%. I'm struggling to find updated numbers for the coronavirus. It's hard for me to match up hospitalizations data with deaths since both numbers change every day.

We should keep in mind that the deaths proportion is going to rise (remember when South Korea was reporting 0.7% mortality rate among known cases? It's now 1.9% because not-deaths turn into deaths over time) and, of course, this is a different virus from a different virus family.

 

[Irishbounty28]

I am not sure if it has been mentioned here but I believe there is a definite lag time in reported cases and deaths. This is partly why some days it seems there is a decrease and others it jumps. Depending on where the tests are being completed it could take 2-10 days for results to return. There is a vast amount who haven’t received results but have already passed. Quite a few of today’s reported deaths actually expired a week ago.

 

[zelezo vlk]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Precisely. In the worst affected areas, the surge of excess mortality is so obvious that these talking points are useless. <a href="https://t.co/qxvEPD0k4y">https://t.co/qxvEPD0k4y</a></p>— Michael Brendan Dougherty (@michaelbd) <a href="https://twitter.com/michaelbd/status/1247717945024942081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[wizards8507]

Just to be clear, when I question whether or not this is "worth it," I am not referring to the economic impact, which is real and severe. I'm talking about the human impact.

The elderly are wasting away in nursing homes wondering why their children and grandchildren don't come to visit them anymore. Small children are growing up in fear, asking why they're not allowed to see their teachers or their friends. We're not mourning our dead with wakes or funerals. People aren't getting married. We can't go to Mass or Confession during Lent, Holy Week, and Easter. Basic, fundamental behaviors about what it means to be human beings have been set aside and it's incredibly destructive.

 

[PerthDomer]

The alternative is mass deaths in nursing homes, hospitals not even offering ICU care for those over 65 due to numbers, etc. Etc. If NYC shuts down 3 days later they have twice the cases. If Amazon/Microsoft dont shut down their offices early and washington schools close really early the Washington State system would be overwhelmed. I could go on...

 

[wizards8507]

The alternative is mass deaths in nursing homes, hospitals not even offering ICU care for those over 65 due to numbers, etc. Etc. If NYC shuts down 3 days later they have twice the cases. If Amazon/Microsoft dont shut down their offices early and washington schools close really early the Washington State system would be overwhelmed. I could go on...

The "if we do nothing" scenario was estimated at what, 2 million deaths? And, as we've already established, the large majority of those people are on death's doorstep to begin with.

This is worse.

 

[FDNYIrish1]

We've been to a few DOAs this past week (a little more than normal). Keep in mind, my department covers a city of 45,000 (not exactly NY). I'm assuming people are just afraid to leave the house and it's not COVID related. Medics say the hospitals are actually slower than normal. Think my whole county has 25 or so confirmed cases out of 100,000+.

Obviously New York is dealing with the virus more than everyone else so many of these are probably virus related.

I guess we are what they are calling the epicenter of this pandemic here. As I’ve alluded to in a couple of posts, projected models are difficult due to the lack of testing available at the start and the constraints placed. I’m pretty sure I had this thing back in February, but other than a mild fever and some fatigue for a day or 2,it wasn’t a cause for concern. They only really want you tested on my job if you are symptomatic. I’ll assume that is due to fear of how many positives they would actually get from the asymptomatic people, crippling the manpower.

As for the hospitals, I’m unable to speak of what is going on there. I do know for sure that the lack of paramedics and EMTs is certainly an issue with care. I’ve been on the job for 19 years and I can assure you I’ve never been to as many arrest calls as I’ve been in the last 2 weeks. I’m averaging 3 per 24 hour tour. This is where they are calling telemetry and ceasing CPR and pronouncing at the scene. What was a rare occurrence is now happening 200 times a day. Personally, I think this is more due to keeping the units available in the field rather than an overload at the hospitals, but then again I have no proof of that, just what I suspect.
Stay safe all,we will be on the other side of this thing shortly. I’ve never looked more forward to football season than I am right now. Go Irish!

 

[PerthDomer]

If 100% of people get it and mortality is 0.6% that's 2 million. If they all got it at once mortality is higher (see wuhan, Milan) the 2 million wasn't nothing, it was just not much. We've lost residents in their 20's and 30's... probably a worthwhile sacrifice for the economy...

 

[wizards8507]

If 100% of people get it and mortality is 0.6% that's 2 million. If they all got it at once mortality is higher (see wuhan, Milan) the 2 million wasn't nothing, it was just not much. We've lost residents in their 20's and 30's... probably a worthwhile sacrifice for the economy...

The mortality is not 0.6%, first of all.

See above. I'm not talking about the economy. I'm talking about basic human activity.

 

[GATTACA!]

Saw an interesting stat yesterday. Apparently the CCP claims that ~200 people died in Tiananmen Square. Actual recent estimates put that number closer to 10,000.

Now think about what their COVID numbers must actually look like.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Saw an interesting stat yesterday. Apparently the CCP claims that ~200 people died in Tiananmen Square. Actual recent estimates put that number closer to 10,000.

Now think about what their COVID numbers must actually look like.

China's numbers are crap.

 

[PerthDomer]

0.6% is the conservative estimate I've seen. It's much higher for hospitalized patients. Additionally of the intubated survivors a large amount will be debilitated. That discounts those under 18 whose mortality is nil and aren't part of the workforce.

 

[NDRock]

Just to be clear, when I question whether or not this is "worth it," I am not referring to the economic impact, which is real and severe. I'm talking about the human impact.

The elderly are wasting away in nursing homes wondering why their children and grandchildren don't come to visit them anymore. Small children are growing up in fear, asking why they're not allowed to see their teachers or their friends. We're not mourning our dead with wakes or funerals. People aren't getting married. We can't go to Mass or Confession during Lent, Holy Week, and Easter. Basic, fundamental behaviors about what it means to be human beings have been set aside and it's incredibly destructive.

Honestly, as a fan of history I’ve come to realize things like this were a very real and not uncommon experience for our ancestors. They overcame much worse and got through it. So will we.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Here's a good thread from J.D. Vance addressing the most common arguments circulating among COVID-19 skeptics (including wizards' above):

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I’ve been reading a lot of the contrarian (primarily from fellow righties) COVID19 opinions, and I wanted to work through them in good faith. I find most of them pretty unpersuasive. As they say, THREAD:</p>— J.D. Vance (@JDVance1) <a href="https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1247727105867210756?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Click through to read the whole thing.

 

[ulukinatme]

Saw an interesting stat yesterday. Apparently the CCP claims that ~200 people died in Tiananmen Square. Actual recent estimates put that number closer to 10,000.

Now think about what their COVID numbers must actually look like.

China's numbers are crap.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...nds-of-urns-with-coronavirus-remains-each-day

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wuhan had 14 crematoriums with the capacity of 144 remains per day. Those are 1,700 urns waiting to be claimed, many have no names. The 1,200, or so, brown boxes are waiting to be unpacked. It would’ve taken just 1 of these facilities to handle *all of China’s coronavirus deaths. <a href="https://t.co/sGYCvKDzoK">pic.twitter.com/sGYCvKDzoK</a></p>— Hey, Dave! (@davegreenidge57) <a href="https://twitter.com/davegreenidge57/status/1243648681326383112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[RDU Irish]

You don't need to insult people to make a point. If you disagree, that's fine but you don't need to make childish snarky comments about Dairy Queen and not being all there because I disagree with you.

240,000 people were supposed to die in our country . Millions of hospitalizations. And that was with social distancing, etc. Some knew that was absurd. Many panicked. Now it's 140,000. Right.

People thought this was going to be The Stand. Stephen King had to calm some people down because they thought this was the end. People dumped their stock trying to salvage something before it all crashed and burned. I never said this wasn't a problem. It is. It's a crisis in NYC. But in my opinion, and many others, this wasn't worth shutting the world down, costing trillions of dollars and sending the country into double digits unemployment which is the start of a Depression. People you and I know will be out of work months from now because the media went hysterical.

Now, I'm sure you are all there and a smart guy and probably have a fine career, but we can agree to disagree. See how easy that is?

Hospital administrator forcing financial ruin on others to make his life easier - why would anyone be surprised this is what happens when you make MDs king for a day? Collateral damages are very real in this "fight". Even at 240k deaths - that is less than a 10% increase in annual deaths in the US. We gotta get back to work sooner than later - wash your hands and keep your distance and we will be just fine.

 

[wizards8507]

Here's a good thread from J.D. Vance addressing the most common arguments circulating among COVID-19 skeptics (including wizards' above):

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I’ve been reading a lot of the contrarian (primarily from fellow righties) COVID19 opinions, and I wanted to work through them in good faith. I find most of them pretty unpersuasive. As they say, THREAD:</p>— J.D. Vance (@JDVance1) <a href="https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1247727105867210756?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Click through to read the whole thing.

Eh, none of those are my main point. "It's not that bad" is secondary to "I don't care how bad it is, you can't shut down the world."

From the Catechism:

"Discontinuing medical procedures that are burdensome, dangerous, extraordinary, or disproportionate to the expected outcome can be legitimate; it is the refusal of "over-zealous" treatment. Here one does not will to cause death; one's inability to impede it is merely accepted. The decisions should be made by the patient if he is competent and able or, if not, by those legally entitled to act for the patient, whose reasonable will and legitimate interests must always be respected."

Now it's not a perfect analogy because this is in reference to an individual patient and not society as a whole, but I think what we're doing is the very definitely of "over-zealous treatment."

 

[dublinirish]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...-paying-the-price-for-trumps-failures/609532/

I don’t take responsibility at all,” said President Donald Trump in the Rose Garden on March 13. Those words will probably end up as the epitaph of his presidency, the single sentence that sums it all up.

 

[Irish#1]

Just to be clear, when I question whether or not this is "worth it," I am not referring to the economic impact, which is real and severe. I'm talking about the human impact.

The elderly are wasting away in nursing homes wondering why their children and grandchildren don't come to visit them anymore. Small children are growing up in fear, asking why they're not allowed to see their teachers or their friends. We're not mourning our dead with wakes or funerals. People aren't getting married. We can't go to Mass or Confession during Lent, Holy Week, and Easter. Basic, fundamental behaviors about what it means to be human beings have been set aside and it's incredibly destructive.

From your perspective perhaps. We're around 3-4 weeks of restrictions right now, so it's not like those in a nursing home haven't seen anyone in months. The nursing home where my MIL is is helping them with Facetime sessions to stay in touch. We have kids on both sides of us and while they don't leave their yards, they are out playing, laughing and getting on each other everyday. Some people aren't getting married, but I've seen plenty of examples on TV where they are. Besides, as soon as this passes they can get married. The only sad part is not being able to conduct a normal funeral for our loved ones.

I don't find this to be incredibly destructive, but more of a giant pain in the butt that we know will end if we all use common sense.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Eh, none of those are my main point. "It's not that bad" is secondary to "I don't care how bad it is, you can't shut down the world."

From the Catechism:

"Discontinuing medical procedures that are burdensome, dangerous, extraordinary, or disproportionate to the expected outcome can be legitimate; it is the refusal of "over-zealous" treatment. Here one does not will to cause death; one's inability to impede it is merely accepted. The decisions should be made by the patient if he is competent and able or, if not, by those legally entitled to act for the patient, whose reasonable will and legitimate interests must always be respected."

Now it's not a perfect analogy because this is in reference to an individual patient and not society as a whole, but I think what we're doing is the very definitely of "over-zealous treatment."

It's not a bad analogy, but the key distinction is in that the final sentence. The decision to discontinue extraordinary medical treatments properly lies with the individual or his agent. The decision as to what constitutes disproportionate "treatment" of the body politic during an epidemic lies with our executive politicos. None of us has enough information to persuasively argue "this treatment is clearly worse than the disease"; particularly when the alternative likely means sacrificing 1.5-2% of our most vulnerable citizens.

 

[notredomer23]

My great aunt, 88, contracted COVID-19 in her nursing home. They thought she was a goner and they started with the hydroxychloriquine four days ago.

Just got the call from my Grandpa (It's his sister) that she's completely turned around and is expected to be released on Friday.

 

[ulukinatme]

My great aunt, 88, contracted COVID-19 in her nursing home. They thought she was a goner and they started with the hydroxychloriquine four days ago.

Just got the call from my Grandpa (It's his sister) that she's completely turned around and is expected to be released on Friday.

Fake news!

 

[ACamp1900]

My great aunt, 88, contracted COVID-19 in her nursing home. They thought she was a goner and they started with the hydroxychloriquine four days ago.

Just got the call from my Grandpa (It's his sister) that she's completely turned around and is expected to be released on Friday.

Wow, great to hear.