College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[IrishLion]

I think you're all doodoo heads, and that if you don't think 2015 Notre Dame is the best team in the history of the Universe, you can just get the hell out.

IrishLion's CFB Playoff Rankings, 11/18/15, 3:45pm:

1. Notre Dame
2. Notre Dame
3. Brian Kelly
4. Notre Dame

That's right. The third ranked team in the playoffs is Brian Kelly. The 2nd-ranked Irish will have to match their coach in a battle of wills, as well as a 2-out-of-3 Rock-Paper-Scissors match. Winner plays Notre Dame or Notre Dame.

 

[Luckylucci]

I think you're all doodoo heads, and that if you don't think 2015 Notre Dame is the best team in the history of the Universe, you can just get the hell out.

IrishLion's CFB Playoff Rankings, 11/18/15, 3:45pm:

1. Notre Dame
2. Notre Dame
3. Brian Kelly
4. Notre Dame

That's right. The third ranked team in the playoffs is Brian Kelly. The 2nd-ranked Irish will have to match their coach in a battle of wills, as well as a 2-out-of-3 Rock-Paper-Scissors match. Winner plays Notre Dame or Notre Dame.

Wow, 5th ranked BVG is going to be pissed that they get left out.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Again, ...according to most statistical models. We've argued this before and I have no desire to do so again but statistical models are largely useless in football. The sample size is just too small. A 162-game baseball season? Absolutely. But when you play 12 games in a field of 128, the models are unreliable and you need to rely on football acumen, not statistical acumen.

And that'd be true if the models were restricted to using Ws and Ls as data points. But they're not. S&P+ is a play-based metric, which means it takes into account the outcome of thousands of data points each week. FEI is a drive-based efficiency metric, so it suffers from smaller sample sizes, but makes up for it by measuring inherently more significant data.

ND has been very explosive this season, but somewhat inconsistent. Thus, FEI loves us, and S&P+ is a little cooler on us (under Rees, it was exactly the opposite). There's nothing wrong with either of those models.

 

[koonja]

Wow, 5th ranked BVG is going to be pissed that they get left out.

#5 BVG's narrow win to unranked and 0-12 Paul Longo held BVG out of the top 4.

 

[gkIrish]

I think you're all doodoo heads, and that if you don't think 2015 Notre Dame is the best team in the history of the Universe, you can just get the hell out.

IrishLion's CFB Playoff Rankings, 11/18/15, 3:45pm:

1. Notre Dame
2. Notre Dame
3. Brian Kelly
4. Notre Dame

That's right. The third ranked team in the playoffs is Brian Kelly. The 2nd-ranked Irish will have to match their coach in a battle of wills, as well as a 2-out-of-3 Rock-Paper-Scissors match. Winner plays Notre Dame or Notre Dame.

Brian Kelly v. a Hurricane. But Hold on....the Hurricane's name is Brian Kelly.

 

[NDRock]

I don't want to speak for GK, but the feeling that I have is that people want to say that it is a slam dunk that if it is an 11-1 ND and an 11-1 OK for the final playoff spot that it is a slam dunk for ND. I think that myself (and maybe GK thinks this as well) that ND probably should/could be the pick but that it is far from a given. If that situation happens (and some of this depends on other teams on both ND and OK schedules do) I feel that it will be a close decision and I would place it more like a 60(ND)/40(OK), not a 100/0 or 90/10 as some seem think that it will be.

Fair enough. I actually agree that if both teams end up 11-1 they will each have an argument that they should be chosen.

 

[NDohio]

Wow, 5th ranked BVG is going to be pissed that they get left out.

Umm, no. Mike Sanford should be the fifth place team. Not BVG. Just look at the QB of each of their teams. Kizer over Schmidt all day long...

 

[Grahambo]

I think you're all doodoo heads, and that if you don't think 2015 Notre Dame is the best team in the history of the Universe, you can just get the hell out.

IrishLion's CFB Playoff Rankings, 11/18/15, 3:45pm:

1. Notre Dame
2. Notre Dame
3. Brian Kelly
4. Notre Dame

That's right. The third ranked team in the playoffs is Brian Kelly. The 2nd-ranked Irish will have to match their coach in a battle of wills, as well as a 2-out-of-3 Rock-Paper-Scissors match. Winner plays Notre Dame or Notre Dame.

Unbelievable.

Notre Dame should be ranked ahead of Notre Dame for the #1 spot and Brian Kelly is ranked too low IMO. Notre Dame beat Notre Dame at Notre Dame Stadium in a monsoon so that alone should move Notre Dame ahead of Notre Dame. Brian Kelly should be #2 based on common opponent with Notre Dame.

This is also why we need an 8-team playoff.

 

[IrishLion]

Unbelievable.

Notre Dame should be ranked ahead of Notre Dame for the #1 spot and Brian Kelly is ranked too low IMO. Notre Dame beat Notre Dame at Notre Dame Stadium in a monsoon so that alone should move Notre Dame ahead of Notre Dame. Brian Kelly should be #2 based on common opponent with Notre Dame.

This is also why we need an 8-team playoff.

Back to the drawing board.

 

[IrishinSyria]

First, if UNC beats Clemson, that opens up a Playoff spot, so I'm not sure if the choice would come down to UNC vs ND.

We've discussed the Committee's criteria. I would regard UNC more of a conference champion than the B12 top dog. A championship game is the chance for an underdog like UNC to upset an acknowledged regular season champion like Clemson. Two FCS games hurts UNC more than a win over Clemson would help. I don't think it's necessarily one factor like a shared opponent result. Now if UNC were to blast Clemson out of the water, that's different.

With less shine for the B12's conference "championship" than other P5 conferences and without head to heads between ND and Oklahoma State, the Committee would be down to the better team. Those factors would include entire body of work, SOS, best wins/losses, eye ball test, etc. At that point I feel we win.

I mean I agree with all of this except for your conclusion that we would be in over an undefeated Oklahoma St. I don't think there's any chance of that, because the committee looks at record first and then other factors. It's not like the Big 12 is the AAC.

As for an 11-1 Oklahoma (or a 12-1 UNC + 12-1 Clemson), I think the committee would look at all the factors you laid out and I'm just really not sure how it would play out. The Texas game would cut in our favor, but other things would cut against us.

 

[Cackalacky]

And that'd be true if the models were restricted to using Ws and Ls as data points. But they're not. S&P+ is a play-based metric, which means it takes into account the outcome of thousands of data points each week. FEI is a drive-based efficiency metric, so it suffers from smaller sample sizes, but makes up for it by measuring inherently more significant data.

ND has been very explosive this season, but somewhat inconsistent. Thus, FEI loves us, and S&P+ is a little cooler on us (under Rees, it was exactly the opposite). There's nothing wrong with either of those models.

 

[Guest]

You sound like this guy.

https://twitter.com/DanWolken/status/666822054847643648

He has a good point that ND fans don't want to acknowledge. Texas is a different team than they were when we played them. This is a big transition year for Strong and his team. They have lots of newcomers playing and they are trying to develop a really young QB after admitting the previous guy is limited.

If ND played Texas again now, the score would not be the same in my opinion, even though ND still wins. And other people think this way too.

I live in Texas and watched the Red River Rivalry. THAT was a different Texas team that OU had to contend with. They played with emotion for their coach, played up to their overall talent level, and it was a rivalry game much more than ND was.

That has to be considered when you value the merits of the head to head argument between ND and OU.

 

[Guest]

In my opinion, the correct number and hopeful number is 6 teams. It would end the discussion of a deserving power 5 conference winner being kept out, and would reward the top two ranked teams in the country with a bye. However, I do understand 8 is more likely, but 6 is the correct answer in my opinion.

But are the Power 5 the only conferences that should be considered? I am not so sure, especially with how a couple of them water down their schedules early in the season to inflate rankings.

I honestly want more teams because I want to get completely rid of ranking and conference bias and do what they do in the pros - solve it on the field. If a non-power 5 team demonstrates dominance on the field, let's settle how good they are in the playoffs. I think some potential upsets in this format would surprise people - it happens all the time in sports.

 

[IrishinSyria]

But are the Power 5 the only conferences that should be considered? I am not so sure, especially with how a couple of them water down their schedules early in the season to inflate rankings.

I honestly want more teams because I want to get completely rid of ranking and conference bias and do what they do in the pros - solve it on the field. If a non-power 5 team demonstrates dominance on the field, let's settle how good they are in the playoffs. I think some potential upsets in this format would surprise people - it happens all the time in sports.

a: no, absolutely not. The debate- and the meaning of each game- is what makes college football great.

b: Even if you wanted to do it like they do in the pros, you couldn't. There are what, 128 teams in the FBS? Good luck ever getting them to settle who the best is "on the field" in a 12 game season + 3-4 playoff games.

 

[IrishLax]

He has a good point that ND fans don't want to acknowledge. Texas is a different team than they were when we played them. This is a big transition year for Strong and his team. They have lots of newcomers playing and they are trying to develop a really young QB after admitting the previous guy is limited.

If ND played Texas again now, the score would not be the same in my opinion, even though ND still wins. And other people think this way too.

I live in Texas and watched the Red River Rivalry. THAT was a different Texas team that OU had to contend with. They played with emotion for their coach, played up to their overall talent level, and it was a rivalry game much more than ND was.

That has to be considered when you value the merits of the head to head argument between ND and OU.

This is just fundamentally not true. It was the same, terrible Texas team. The same team that lost to TCU 50-7 the previous week. They had the same VERY BAD defense... and Oklahoma couldn't do anything against them.

Tyrone Swoopes took a significant number of snaps against Oklahoma, and accounted for the majority of their scoring. Heard had a poor QBR. Heard also played against ND, did absolutely nothing, and then got benched and/or knocked out of the game.

 

[NDRock]

This is just fundamentally not true. It was the same, terrible Texas team. The same team that lost to TCU 50-7 the previous week. They had the same VERY BAD defense... and Oklahoma couldn't do anything against them.

Tyrone Swoopes took a significant number of snaps against Oklahoma, and accounted for the majority of their scoring. Heard had a poor QBR. Heard also played against ND, did absolutely nothing, and then got benched and/or knocked out of the game.

They also got shut out by a 3-5 Iowa State team two weeks after Oklahoma. I think we'd do just fine against them now.

 

[KPENN]

Gotta love media blowhards that complain about people spin ND's loss, yet are doing the same thing with OU's

 

[Guest]

This is just fundamentally not true. It was the same, terrible Texas team. The same team that lost to TCU 50-7 the previous week. They had the same VERY BAD defense... and Oklahoma couldn't do anything against them.

Tyrone Swoopes took a significant number of snaps against Oklahoma, and accounted for the majority of their scoring. Heard had a poor QBR. Heard also played against ND, did absolutely nothing, and then got benched and/or knocked out of the game.

But not in the game against OU. People in the south understand this rivalry. The fans of the winning team turn over cars in the street afterwards. There is no way to describe the emotion of it.

When ND fans talk about rivalry games with Michigan and USC and how records don't matter when they play, this is what I am talking about. Rivalry games are different, and Texas OU is on a different level than most rivalry games.

 

[Guest]

a: no, absolutely not. The debate- and the meaning of each game- is what makes college football great.

b: Even if you wanted to do it like they do in the pros, you couldn't. There are what, 128 teams in the FBS? Good luck ever getting them to settle who the best is "on the field" in a 12 game season + 3-4 playoff games.

Disagree. I cannot stand, and have never liked, the college 'debate' which is just a sham. I have said this for over a decade. This is a part of college football many people are disgusted with.

 

[KPENN]

But not in the game against OU. People in the south understand this rivalry. The fans of the winning team turn over cars in the street afterwards. There is no way to describe the emotion of it.

When ND fans talk about rivalry games with Michigan and USC and how records don't matter when they play, this is what I am talking about. Rivalry games are different, and Texas OU is on a different level than most rivalry games.

The whole argument is crap though. Texas has proven before and after that game they are just not a good football team and OU lost to them. Texas didn't only beat them they punched them in the mouth running for 313 yards. Rivalry game or not OU lost to a bad team.

 

[IrishLax]

But not in the game against OU. People in the south understand this rivalry. The fans of the winning team turn over cars in the street afterwards. There is no way to describe the emotion of it.

When ND fans talk about rivalry games with Michigan and USC and how records don't matter when they play, this is what I am talking about. Rivalry games are different, and Texas OU is on a different level than most rivalry games.

The first half is really what I took issue with. Look at what you said: "This is a big transition year for Strong and his team. They have lots of newcomers playing and they are trying to develop a really young QB after admitting the previous guy is limited.

If ND played Texas again now, the score would not be the same in my opinion, even though ND still wins. And other people think this way too."

This is quite obviously not supported by results on the field, for the reasons I said. They got DESTROYED by TCU on the front end of the Oklahoma game and then on the back end got EMBARRASSED by Iowa State.

Texas has been crap all year. They are not an evolved or evolving team. They were bad when ND beat them, and they were bad when they played Oklahoma. The difference is that Oklahoma couldn't stop a vanilla running attack + played bad on offense, whereas decent teams have stopped Texas' flawed offense and exploited their porous defense.

It is beyond illogical to give Oklahoma any sort of pass for Texas on account of being a "different" team.

 

[Cackalacky]

But not in the game against OU. People in the south understand this rivalry. The fans of the winning team turn over cars in the street afterwards. There is no way to describe the emotion of it.

When ND fans talk about rivalry games with Michigan and USC and how records don't matter when they play, this is what I am talking about. Rivalry games are different, and Texas OU is on a different level than most rivalry games.

How does an emotional response by fans have any bearing on the outcome of a series of games where Texas blew?

 

[Redbar]

He has a good point that ND fans don't want to acknowledge. Texas is a different team than they were when we played them. This is a big transition year for Strong and his team. They have lots of newcomers playing and they are trying to develop a really young QB after admitting the previous guy is limited.

If played Texas again now, the score would not be the same in my opinion, even though ND still wins. And other people think this way too.

I live in Texas and watched the Red River Rivalry. THAT was a different Texas team that OU had to contend with. They played with emotion for their coach, played up to their overall talent level, and it was a rivalry game much more than ND was.

That has to be considered when you value the merits of the head to head argument between ND and OU.

If Notre Dame played Clemson right now without 16 days to prepare for us it would be different, if Bama played Ole Miss now it would be different, if, if...etc.

 

[kmoose]

But not in the game against OU. People in the south understand this rivalry. The fans of the winning team turn over cars in the street afterwards. There is no way to describe the emotion of it. Rivalry games are different, and Texas OU is on a different level than most rivalry games.

There is nothing special about the Red River Shootout, from a rivalry perspective. You know what happens in Columbus, OH, on the night that the hometown team WINS? They don't just turn cars over in the streets afterwards; they also set fire to them! Not a single couch in town is safe from the same fate, either. And all up and down I-75, you can see Ohio State Troopers with cars pulled over................. and ALL of them with Michigan plates!

 

[BobbyMac]

All this debating is tiresome.

Since wins and losses and common opponents no longer matter more than SOS, statistical metrics and Condy Rice's eye test why not just run 1 month of combines and intersquad scrimmages then submit the tapes to the committee so they can pick 4 teams to actually play live games.

Bama has easily played the toughest schedule in the country and they are a top 4 eye test team but if they lose to Auburn and then go on to win the SEC, they are out if I'm selecting.

#wins&lossesmatter

 

[stlnd01]

I think the playoff committee definitely ought to consider "ensuing property damage" as they measure what wins/losses count most. It's at least as important as body clocks, weather and injured quarterbacks.

Rivalry game. Whatever. College football is an emotional sport. Teams are up one week, down the next, often for unfathomable reasons. It's part of what makes the sport so fun (and the transitive property so useless in judging teams). But it's not a free pass on a loss.

We beat Texas and Oklahoma didn't. That's a knock on the Sooners. But they'll have ended with bigger wins than us, which helps them. Who gets the spot? Who knows. Will be interesting to watch.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I'm completely confused on why the committee put UofM at 12 and Utah at 13 when Utah won the head to head. And UofM hasn't looked good in any of their recent wins over mediocre teams.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #4!!!)

College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #4!!!)

I'm completely confused on why the committee put UofM at 12 and Utah at 13 when Utah won the head to head. And UofM hasn't looked good in any of their recent wins over mediocre teams.

scUM lost to a top ten team on arguably the biggest blunder in CFB history, and the other a close game to Utah, who's #13.

Utah was HUMILIATED by a USC team held together by chewing gum and duct tape, and lost to Arizona, who is 6-5 and lost by 46 points to Washington two weeks before.

I'm fine with it. With that said. FUCK MICHIGAN.

 

[Cackalacky]

Even if you were right on the football merits, the Big XII would back out of the playoff system if this happens, and there's no way the committee locks out an undefeated Big XII team after what happened last year.

There is <1 percent chance ND doesn't get jumped by a 12-0 Oklahoma State.

Honestly, I disagree. The committee has basically said and shown this year and last year that if you want a shot at the playoff, schedule better. The Big 12 OoC is a punchline at this point.

 

[Irish#1]

All this debating is tiresome.

Since wins and losses and common opponents no longer matter more than SOS, statistical metrics and Condy Rice's eye test why not just run 1 month of combines and intersquad scrimmages then submit the tapes to the committee so they can pick 4 teams to actually play live games.

Bama has easily played the toughest schedule in the country and they are a top 4 eye test team but if they lose to Auburn and then go on to win the SEC, they are out if I'm selecting.

#wins&lossesmatter

Agree, a two loss team will not be in the playoffs. If Sparty beats OSU this week, I think you see OSU drop out of the top four. They would have to roll scUM and beat Iowa to get back into consideration.