I disagree with you (respectfully!), but I want to comment on the note of another big time midwestern draw. I still don't think that impacts OSU or ND that much for my previous stated reason about OSU, and I just don't think many kids that are truly cut out for ND are choosing MSU and Urban over ND. If anything, I think it impacts UM the most with in-state kids and then their usual recruiting rivals like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, etc. There is a lot of overlap in who those schools recruit. The one wrench is all this is if they decide to go full Texas A&M and drop bags. This is certainly a possibility given how they've treated NIL thus far.
I do feel this is a lot of discussion about nothing. Reading the MSU boards, any real insiders don't seem to be giving much of any credence to the Urban talk.