2018 Midterm Elections

[Junkhead]

Avenatti with 1%. Wonder where he will poll after paying TRUMPS legal bills and going broke. Slimeball

Yeah, he's a slimeball, at least half as much as trump. Anyway, no opinion on Biden, but I would rather have someone younger. Too many damn old white guys in Washington. Says this kinda old white guy,

 

[Irish YJ]

Yeah, he's a slimeball, at least half as much as trump. Anyway, no opinion on Biden, but I would rather have someone younger. Too many damn old white guys in Washington. Says this kinda old white guy,

But he doesn't have Trump's good looks and hair...

 

[Irish#1]

Yeah, he's a slimeball, at least half as much as trump. Anyway, no opinion on Biden, but I would rather have someone younger. Too many damn old white guys in Washington. Says this kinda old white guy,

The sad thing is most of these guys weren't old when they got elected. We need limits on how long a senator or congressman can hold office, but you'll never get them to pass such a law.

 

[irishog77]

The sad thing is most of these guys weren't old when they got elected. We need limits on how long a senator or congressman can hold office, but you'll never get them to pass such a law.

I used to be firmly against term limits. Now, I am firmly in favor. And you're right, they won't vote themselves out of office. Could happen at the state level, but I doubt that will ever happen either. I wish Trump would make a strong push for it. He's not beholden to any of them anyway, and probably generally dislikes most of them.

 

[RDU Irish]

I used to be firmly against term limits. Now, I am firmly in favor. And you're right, they won't vote themselves out of office. Could happen at the state level, but I doubt that will ever happen either. I wish Trump would make a strong push for it. He's not beholden to any of them anyway, and probably generally dislikes most of them.

Convention of States!


Been perusing the 538 site for a couple of weeks. Just seems to me the money and macro factors are driving the House numbers while the Senate has better polling available and seems more reliable.

 

[ACamp1900]

The sad thing is most of these guys weren't filthy rich when they got elected.

There's this aspect too.....

 

[Wild Bill]

Yeah, he's a slimeball, at least half as much as trump. Anyway, no opinion on Biden, but I would rather have someone younger. Too many damn old white guys in Washington. Says this kinda old white guy,

 

[Irish YJ]

The sad thing is most of these guys weren't old when they got elected. We need limits on how long a senator or congressman can hold office, but you'll never get them to pass such a law.

term limits, kill the lobby, and ultra reform for campaign finance.
those three things could make things so much better.

 

[Irish YJ]

Dems' midterm advantage narrows among registered voters as Trump's approval rating rises, NBC/WSJ poll finds

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-midterm-advantage-narrows-among-registered-voters-as-trumps-approval-rating-rises-poll-finds

A new national poll a few weeks before the midterm elections shows the chances of a "blue wave" are far from a slam dunk for the Democrats.

The NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday shows 48 percent of registered voters would prefer having the Democrats in control of Congress, compared to 41 percent supporting the GOP. That 7-point gap has narrowed from the 12-point gap the Democrats had in September.


The poll also showed President Trump’s approval ratings at their highest yet: 47 percent. The poll showed 49 percent disapprove.

“The current data shows that the Democratic advantage has ebbed but still with a large advantage. And the GOP shows some life,” Democratic pollster Fred Yang, who conducted the poll alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Hart Research Associates, told The Wall Street Journal.

Yang told NBC: “Midterms are about mobilization, and we are headed into the stretch run with unprecedented enthusiasm among both parties.”

The poll found that 72 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans are eager for the midterms.

Trump’s approval rating might help to determine which party controls Congress next year. His job rating is up three points over the last month.

Historically, similar presidential approval ratings right before the midterms have delivered Congress to the opposing party of the president in the White House, as The New York Post reported.

NBC and The Journal reported that the poll of 900 registered voters was conducted Oct. 14-17. The margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.27 percentage points.

 

[connor_in]

Carl Bernstein: Trump preparing to call midterm elections 'illegitimate' if Democrats take power

Huh, I wonder where he would get such an idea from?

 

[IrishLax]

Two weeks out, projections basically holding. Republicans 80% chance to hold Senate, Democrats 80% chance to take House.

 

[ACamp1900]

Beto did a ad/video of supporters dancing to YMCA instead the words are changed to "B.E.T.O"...............

 

[ickythump1225]

Beto did a ad/video of supporters dancing to YMCA instead the words are changed to "B.E.T.O"...............

 

[ickythump1225]

Two weeks out, projections basically holding. Republicans 80% chance to hold Senate, Democrats 80% chance to take House.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Happy two year anniversary <a href="https://t.co/0lQkLEYcV9">pic.twitter.com/0lQkLEYcV9</a></p>— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1053789000773890049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="fi" dir="ltr">rŏ-bərt <a href="https://t.co/oMyLNkU1M9">https://t.co/oMyLNkU1M9</a></p>— jon gabriel (@exjon) <a href="https://twitter.com/exjon/status/1054397042653458433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[IrishLax]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Democrats look increasingly like they could lose Senate seats in November <a href="https://t.co/0yTrEFBJca">https://t.co/0yTrEFBJca</a> <a href="https://t.co/7tcwSR0DSY">pic.twitter.com/7tcwSR0DSY</a></p>— The Hill (@thehill) <a href="https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1054341113803358209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Irish YJ]

Houston rally looks lit.
Beautiful Texas Ted (LOL) getting mad cheers, probably the loudest I've seen on the Trump tour.

 

[loomis41973]

Can we get some coke or meth for Jim Acosta? We need him on tv as much as possible.

 

[Irish YJ]

Can we get some coke or meth for Jim Acosta? We need him on tv as much as possible.

CNN should give him his own spin off network. The Whinny News Network..

I'd love to see him in a cage match with Sara Sanders. She'd demolish him. Tap out in under a minute.

 

[RDU Irish]

I am not buying the methodology driving the 80% Dem House numbers. Seems like a lot of similar assumptions to the "Hillary gonna win 57 states with +90% certainty" estimates. When given better polling data in Senate and Governor situations I think they are more accurate while the money has driven an enormous adjustment in the House races. I see Rs nationalizing the House races and getting out the vote without dropping a ton of money to do it. Would be interesting to map out Trump's rallies against House districts and see how many locations are blue on 538.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/were-back-from-the-future-which-of-these-wildly-different-midterm-outcomes-would-you-believe/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

And it looks like Nate Silver is hedging his bets - doesn't sound like he adjusted his models much from 2016.

 

[Irish#1]

Looks like a dead heat for the Senate seat in Indiana. Donnelly held a slight 3%-4% advantage a couple of months agos. Now it's 1% with a 4% margin for error.

90% of the commercials airing locally the last two weeks have been bought by either Donnelly, Braun or their supporters.

 

[connor_in]

Looks like a dead heat for the Senate seat in Indiana. Donnelly held a slight 3%-4% advantage a couple of months agos. Now it's 1% with a 4% margin for error.

90% of the commercials airing locally the last two weeks have been bought by either Donnelly, Braun or their supporters.

Yeah, and apparently the only campaign issue is Braun gets parts from China and Donnelly sends jobs to Mexico...basically every commercial is on those topics.

 

[Legacy]

Voter suppression at its worst: This Kansas town aims to keep people away on Election Day An Editorial from the KC Star

Excerpt:

Voter suppression is a growing concern across the country. The latest goings-on in Georgia are a case in point with reports of two-hour waits to vote and a reduced number of polling locations.

Kansas, of course, has a long history with the perpetual-motion-machine that is Secretary of State Kris Kobach. He’s emerged as a champion of voter identification laws that have been cited as a primary factor in reducing turnout, often among Democratic constituencies across the country.

Now, Dodge City is under scrutiny for what appears to be a blatant bid to undercut the turnout in western Kansas’ Ford County.

On election day, Dodge City voters will convene in one — we’ll repeat that, just one — polling location, which will be at the expo center outside of town. It’s a new site because construction made the previous location inaccessible. But there are major problems: No public transportation serves the expo center. In fact, the nearest bus stop is more than a mile away. At times, freight trains block traffic, slowing access to the polls.

The single polling location will serve 13,136 voters, and that makes it one of the busiest polling sites in the state. The average polling location serves 1,200 voters.

“It’s limiting people’s rights to vote in the most fundamental way,” first-time voter Alejandro Rangel-Lopez told KSN News. “They just can’t make a quick trip to the polling booth.”

The county clerk who made the decision to have one polling site and to place it outside of town for over 13,000 voters is a Republican. Dodge City's population is 60% Hispanic. Those Dodge City citizens living in poverty who could be most impacted by the difficulty in getting time off or in having the time to travel outside of town to vote amount to 19.8% of their population per U.S. Census stats.

This year’s post-election analysis almost certainly will focus on voter suppression tactics nationwide. Another one may be on display in Missouri, a state where Republicans have continually declined to pass advance voting. A complicated ballot combined with motivated bases in each party suggest that the lines will be long on Election Day. Discouraged voters may give up and go home.

If all this fuels new calls for reform, it should. One simple fix that should be at the top of the to-do list is adding more polling locations in Dodge City, Kansas

Missouri is one of just 13 states without early voting. It’s way past time to fix that (KC Star)

 

[ab2cmiller]

Voter suppression at its worst: This Kansas town aims to keep people away on Election Day An Editorial from the KC Star

Excerpt:



The county clerk who made the decision to have one polling site and to place it outside of town for over 13,000 voters is a Republican. Dodge City's population is 60% Hispanic. Those Dodge City citizens living in poverty who could be most impacted by the difficulty in getting time off or in having the time to travel outside of town to vote amount to 19.8% of their population per U.S. Census stats.



Missouri is one of just 13 states without early voting. It’s way past time to fix that (KC Star)

Link to another article about the Dodge City issue. In it, they also talk about Barton County Kansas going from 23 polling places to only 11. Some people will have to drive 18 miles to get to a polling place. Of course Barton County is 82% white and 77% voted for Donald Trump. So where is the outrage??????

https://www.kansas.com/latest-news/article220286260.html

 

[ACamp1900]

Every time any form of this issue is brought up I think of stuff like this:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rrBxZGWCdgs" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Legacy]

Link to another article about the Dodge City issue. In it, they also talk about Barton County Kansas going from 23 polling places to only 11. Some people will have to drive 18 miles to get to a polling place. Of course Barton County is 82% white and 77% voted for Donald Trump. So where is the outrage??????

https://www.kansas.com/latest-news/article220286260.html

You are not outraged that 13,000 people have one place to vote and that's outside of town?

The background, of course, is the Supreme Court decision that gutted the Voter Rights Act (VRA). One factor that led to the VRA was the work of the Civil Rights Commission chaired by Father Hesburgh that established federal oversight over voting to prevent abuses of the election process including voter suppression.

U.S. Census What's New & FAQs
QuickFacts
Dodge City city, Kansas White alone, not Hispanic or Latino - 35.0, Hispanic 59.1%

Liberal, Kansas has one voting site for 10,000 people on the edge of town near the airport. Quick Facts - 60% Hispanic, 30.6% White alone

The point being that voting is a right of all citizens which should be respected by making it easier to vote so that we are a nation that acknowledges our democratic principles. Hesburgh called voting a "civic sacrament".

 

[ab2cmiller]

You are not outraged that 13,000 people have one place to vote and that's outside of town?

The background, of course, is the Supreme Court decision that gutted the Voter Rights Act (VRA). One factor that led to the VRA was the work of the Civil Rights Commission chaired by Father Hesburgh that established federal oversight over voting to prevent abuses of the election process including voter suppression.

U.S. Census What's New & FAQs
QuickFacts
Dodge City city, Kansas White alone, not Hispanic or Latino - 35.0, Hispanic 59.1%

Liberal, Kansas has one voting site for 10,000 people. Quick Facts - 60% Hispanic, 30.6% White alone

No, I'm not outraged. You have to look at the conditions that necessitated the move. They had no choice to move the polling place because of construction and they needed a big enough space to handle the volume of voters. Is it ideal, of course not. Is there another option in town? I don't know the answer to that. It sounds like the whole ADA thing is what prompted consolidation of the polling places into one polling place back in 2002. There seems to be plausible reasons for the consolidation and the current temporary move. Is it possibly something sinister to the move? I suppose there is a chance, but neither one of us know that.

My sarcastic comment about where is the outrage, has more to do with the liberals seeing racism in EVERYTHING. My point is that if Barton County was also 60% Hispanic, and they dropped the number of polling places from 23 to 11. The calls of racism would be shouted from the mountain tops. A reasonable person can understand why they are dropping from 23 to 11 and thus nobody says boo.

 

[ickythump1225]

I don't understand early voting? Are people so low agency they can't be bothered to make it on election day? If you are out of town I understand but that is why we have absentee ballots.

 

[ickythump1225]

Somehow this country made it just fine for like 200 years or more without early voting.