2018 Midterm Elections

[connor_in]

TN could still go either way. Blackburn showing a slight lead in latest polls.

Bredesen isn't a flaming liberal and is respected state-wide. He was an extremely popular mayor in Nashville and did a decent job as governor. I somewhat doubt his claim that he would have voted for Kavanaugh, but wouldn't be surprised if he did (or voted with and for republicans on a myriad of issues).
Blackburn is an extremely unlikable politician, has made loads of money off the opiod crisis, is running a terrible campaign, and has messed up her "facts" plenty.

The Kavanaugh farce will likely end up shoring up TN for republicans once again. The fact that democrats got literally the best candidate they could ever get, while the republicans trotted out a loser, yet will still probably win (or the fact that it's even a race), is telling.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/m9bjb46FtG0" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Irish YJ]

uh. this might be bad


Senate Dem hopeful Kyrsten Sinema said 'I don't care' if people go to fight for Taliban against US
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-dem-hopeful-kyrsten-sinema-said-i-dont-care-if-people-go-to-fight-for-taliban-against-us

 

[ickythump1225]

Checking out 538 and looks like Rs are trending to not only maintain Senate majority but pick up a seat. Quite a few close ones in there that could go either way.

By 538 methodology:
Incumbent Heller (R-NV) only half a point up- toss up
Incumbent McCaskill (D-MO) up 0.9% currently
Incumbent Heitkamp (D-ND) is 3.6% behind challenger
Open AZ McCain seat - D Sinema up 1.7% but recent video no bueno - calls Arizonians "crazy" and tells Texas not to end up like AZ - deplorable level gaffe.
Incumbent Scott (D-FL) 2.0% lead
Incumbent Cruz (R-TX) pulling away from Beto with 4.9% lead

So at current levels - swap AZ and ND seats by who is favored. NV loss possible but trending for R. Ds vulnerable in MO and FL but also in AZ by recent developments. 2% "red wave" over 538 projections would deliver a three seat gain (FL, MO, ND with no R losses). A two percent "blue wave" would deliver NV, AZ but still lose ND for a 50/50 senate.

Should be interesting to watch develop - seems like an awful lot of Senate seats to be so closely contested.

I'm out here on the ground for Heller and Laxalt (the gubernatorial candidate). Both Heller and Laxalt were down in polling even 3 weeks ago but have been trending in the right direction.

 

[Irish YJ]

The Taylor effect...

Marsha Blackburn up 14 percent despite Taylor Swift's plea for opponent Phil Bredesen in Tennessee race
https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/marsha-blackburn-up-14-percent-despite-taylor-swifts-plea-for-opponent-phil-bredesen-in-tennessee-race

 

[irishog77]

The Taylor effect...

Marsha Blackburn up 14 percent despite Taylor Swift's plea for opponent Phil Bredesen in Tennessee race
https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/marsha-blackburn-up-14-percent-despite-taylor-swifts-plea-for-opponent-phil-bredesen-in-tennessee-race

I just saw this. I don't know if I buy the results of that pole.

Nevertheless, Kavanaugh, and then Taylor Swift, appear to be huge gifts to Blackburn.

 

[Irish YJ]

I just saw this. I don't know if I buy the results of that pole.

Nevertheless, Kavanaugh, and then Taylor Swift, appear to be huge gifts to Blackburn.

Not sure I buy it either to the extent reported, but I do buy the impact and trend.
I think it's hilarious that the Dem's efforts to curb stop the evil right is like

 

[ACamp1900]

That's still one of the hardest gifs ever for me to watch... I cringe every time... can't imagine that not seriously messing her up.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

YJ, what would you say the end result of MTE is?

Blue Ripple
Blue Wave
Blue Tsunami

Red Ripple
Red Wave
Red Tsunami




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[ACamp1900]

I know you asked YJ specifically but as it stands I expect a Blue Ripple... I expect a blue 'win' overall but not nearly what was expected some months ago or what we've seen in other recent mid terms.

 

[ab2cmiller]

I think most reasonable Dem's know that they have little chance to take the Senate. But if they somehow fail to take the House, OMG, the meltdown will be just as bad as when Hillary lost.

 

[ACamp1900]

Does anyone actually think the right will hold the House???

 

[ab2cmiller]

Does anyone actually think the right will hold the House???

Is their a chance, sure their is a chance. It's not great, but it's certainly better than it was a few weeks ago. Right now Realclearpolitics has it 204 for the Dems and 199 for the Republicans with 32 tossups. Dem's will likely get the House.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I know you asked YJ specifically but as it stands I expect a Blue Ripple... I expect a blue 'win' overall but not nearly what was expected some months ago or what we've seen in other recent mid terms.

Cool thanks. Was curious, because the projection obviously changes based on the news source.


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[ACamp1900]

I'm curious to see if the Trump effect continues to impact things... meaning the amount of people who are voting Republican but simply shy away from saying so in the current climate.

 

[Irish YJ]

YJ, what would you say the end result of MTE is?

Blue Ripple
Blue Wave
Blue Tsunami

Red Ripple
Red Wave
Red Tsunami

Realistically a red ripple in the Senate, and blue ripple in the House.

I think the dem's "craziness" has turned what should have been an easy wave, into a ripple.

They would have done much better had they just acted sane, and stuck to issues that Trump is least popular on. Kav, abolish ICE, harassment, and constant sky is falling shit has backfired on them. And,,,,, finally Republicans got a spine and turned all the silliness into a positive.

And I think Trump has done a great job of campaigning as well.

 

[Irish YJ]

I'm curious to see if the Trump effect continues to impact things... meaning the amount of people who are voting Republican but simply shy away from saying so in the current climate.

This is the big question to me.
For those that shy away from admitting Trump is their guy, those folks are likely very happy with the results. Are they now emboldened? Is it enough to keep them voting though?

 

[Irish YJ]

Does anyone actually think the right will hold the House???

10% chance now.
0% chance earlier.
unless the silent majority has done a fake out of the polls again...

If the dem's fail to take the House, it would be a huge failure, like Lebron missing a layup to win game 7..

 

[ickythump1225]

10% chance now.
0% chance earlier.
unless the silent majority has done a fake out of the polls again...

If the dem's fail to take the House, it would be a huge failure, like Lebron missing a layup to win game 7..

I'll admit to not really following the national House races. Can you give a brief breakdown as to why the Democrats are expected to do so well? Were a lot of incumbent Republicans retiring or something?

 

[Irish YJ]

I'll admit to not really following the national House races. Can you give a brief breakdown as to why the Democrats are expected to do so well? Were a lot of incumbent Republicans retiring or something?

It's simpler than that. Historically, midterms are losers for the party that just won the presidency. The other side (this time the Dems) gets pissed that they lost, and gets out to vote. Only a few times in our history has that not happened.

Here's a great graphic of where the leans and flips reside. It's the second graphic down.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

 

[ACamp1900]

It's simpler than that. Historically, midterms are losers for the party that just won the presidency. The other side (this time the Dems) gets pissed that they lost, and gets out to vote. Only a few times in our history has that not happened.

Here's a great graphic of where the leans and flips reside. It's the second graphic down.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Yeah if I remember right W had one of the biggest mid term wins for any President ever in his first mid term. Then four years later he was crushed... nothing like Clinton or Obama's famous beatings in their first mid terms tough, those were both historic in terms of pure losses.

 

[ickythump1225]

It's simpler than that. Historically, midterms are losers for the party that just won the presidency. The other side (this time the Dems) gets pissed that they lost, and gets out to vote. Only a few times in our history has that not happened.

Here's a great graphic of where the leans and flips reside. It's the second graphic down.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

It's kind of comforting that 538 is so down on the GOP considering how hard they got their shit pushed in in 2016. It's hard for me to take them seriously. Not saying the Democrats won't win the House (I'm aware of the historic trend, I just thought there was some reason behind the mythic "Blue Wave" predictions other than that) but how do people still take Nate Silver seriously?

 

[Irish YJ]

It's kind of comforting that 538 is so down on the GOP considering how hard they got their shit pushed in in 2016. It's hard for me to take them seriously. Not saying the Democrats won't win the House (I'm aware of the historic trend, I just thought there was some reason behind the mythic "Blue Wave" predictions other than that) but how do people still take Nate Silver seriously?

It's not just 538. Most sites are in the same ball park.
Keep in mind these sites are not updated real time.
The latest trend has for sure been pro R.
It's just funny to me that with all the rhetoric, it's likely to be a little ripple.

here's another.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

 

[ickythump1225]

It's not just 538. Most sites are in the same ball park.
Keep in mind these sites are not updated real time.
The latest trend has for sure been pro R.
It's just funny to me that with all the rhetoric, it's likely to be a little ripple.

here's another.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

Yeah, I guess we'll see in a few weeks. Until then I'm going to keep hitting the ground.

 

[connor_in]

I can't produce an article right now, but I believe another reason for what was earlier predicted as blue wave (at least in the House) aside from the traditional backlash vote, was that a number of the current Rs are in toss up or even blue areas, so even if they won last time, not certain they would again.

As far as trusting the polls, I don't know what to think either. In 2016, I believe they were wrong for a combination of people didn't want to admit to DJT, Rs being less likely to respond to polls traditionally got even more so then, under sampling of Rs, and last minute flips or no shows because HRC being HRC.

 

[connor_in]

Yeah, I guess we'll see in a few weeks. Until then I'm going to keep hitting the ground.

Oh and I didn't really hear about it then (moreso recently) apparently Rs did really well in 2016 on GOTV compared to at least thhe recent past.

 

[Irish YJ]

I am surprised that John James out of Michigan is not doing better in Michigan. He's a pretty impressive guy. Would be interested to hear thoughts from those living in Michigan.

Also, LOL'd early when they were talking about the AZ race between McSally (R) vs Sinema.

It was similar to: Who should you vote for... A person who brags about owning over 100 pair of shoes, or one that flew over 100 combat missions?

 

[Irish YJ]

Yeah, I guess we'll see in a few weeks. Until then I'm going to keep hitting the ground.

Hit it hard. Every little bit counts.

 

[ickythump1225]

I was at a campaign event last night. I even went outside the event last night and countersignaled some Soros agents out there with NARAL and Planned Parenthood signs.

 

[ickythump1225]

I can't produce an article right now, but I believe another reason for what was earlier predicted as blue wave (at least in the House) aside from the traditional backlash vote, was that a number of the current Rs are in toss up or even blue areas, so even if they won last time, not certain they would again.

As far as trusting the polls, I don't know what to think either. In 2016, I believe they were wrong for a combination of people didn't want to admit to DJT, Rs being less likely to respond to polls traditionally got even more so then, under sampling of Rs, and last minute flips or no shows because HRC being HRC.

Every poll (other than like a USC-LA Times poll or something) was way off base. RCP, 538, etc. I just don't trust the polling companies.

 

[loomis41973]

Looking more like a blue drought.