2018 Fall Camp Thread

[koonja]

Yeah, thats usually what happens for a first year starter in all levels of football. You can practice all you want and watch a million minutes of film, but it isn't the real thing. He might not go from 2017 Wimbush to Tom Brady, but I think its foolish to think that he hasn't learned and will be better in 2018.

And I'd love to hear where you're getting these awesome percentages for if he gets benched or not.

Is it? In most cases, sure. But he literally got worse as the season went on. That's not normal for young QBs, and it's certainly not a good indicator of where he's headed.

 

[arrowryan]

They're arbitrarily, obviously. Do you agree with them? What are your percentages?

Ask me at about 8:30 pm on September 1st lol. I don't want to put a percentage on it because I don't think its fair. I don't think he's going to look like he did against Georgia, thats for sure. Michigan's defense only looked good when they played weak Big Ten teams, they looked pretty average at best against good teams.

 

[arrowryan]

Is it? In most cases, sure. But he literally got worse as the season went on. That's not normal for young QBs, and it's certainly not a good indicator of where he's headed.

Was it just him that got worse as the season went on? I remember "33 Trucking" come to a abrupt halt towards the end of the season, the defense started laying eggs, and the whole team in general just started to run out of gas.

This year, Brandon has a year of experience under his belt, some semi-proven receivers to throw to, a very deep TE position, and 4 o-linemen with starting experience, and some running backs that can help in both the running game and passing game.

Its far from a guarantee that he shows significant improvement. But just because a reporter tells us that he threw a couple of balls into the ground doesn't mean he's going to be bad this season.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

They're arbitrarily, obviously. Do you agree with them? What are your percentages?

I'm not going to link it, because you probably wouldn't care anyway...

But, Eric Hansen has a great write up (with non-arbitrary evidence) that it's not that uncommon at all for a QB to click sometime after year 1.

 

[PANDFAN]

I think we can win, but only if BK is heavily involved in creating Long's play sheet for the first two drives of the game. After that, you're off script anyway, so we need to see BK do what he does best: Script a play sheet that settles everyone in and attacks the defense in foolproof ways.

If everyone executes, they're going to score. BK draws up a scripted drive better than any other coach in the country, probably. He'll account for Eichenberg starting his first game against the best combo of pass rushers in the country, he'll account for the need to get Wimbush settled in immediately, and he'll account for the defense not knowing exactly how our RB's and TE's are going to get after them with the monster WR's drawing attention on the outside.

If they execute whatever he comes up with on the first drive, and then Long settles in calling the plays once they're off the script, I think the team can settle in and deal with scUM's defense.

If we see an early delay of game, followed by a tackle for loss, a Wimbush over-throw, and then an ineffective draw play, it's going to be a long night.

this was almost exactly what happened the last time we played michigan

 

[IrishLion]

this was almost exactly what happened the last time we played michigan

Yeah, but that scUM team was awful lol.

 

[arrowryan]

Yeah, but that scUM team was awful lol.

And the current UM team has beaten 3 teams with winning records since 2016.

 

[IrishLax]

Was it just him that got worse as the season went on? I remember "33 Trucking" come to a abrupt halt towards the end of the season, the defense started laying eggs, and the whole team in general just started to run out of gas.

This year, Brandon has a year of experience under his belt, some semi-proven receivers to throw to, a very deep TE position, and 4 o-linemen with starting experience, and some running backs that can help in both the running game and passing game.

Its far from a guarantee that he shows significant improvement. But just because a reporter tells us that he threw a couple of balls into the ground doesn't mean he's going to be bad this season.

Yup. A couple tings left unsaid in the "regression" narrative:
1. Both Adams and Wimbush were hurt for the last third of the season where their production fell off a cliff.
2. Teams we faced stopped letting us spread them out sideline-to-sideline... they stopped respecting the WR screen, etc. because we weren't effective on it. We didn't adjust our offensive scheme to account for stacking of the box and attacking the slow developing running plays.

So it was a combo of our coaches not putting the offense in position to succeed and them not being 100%. He didn't magically just go from lighting up USC and Wake to god awful over night because of magic or some other sudden nonsense.

 

[greyhammer90]

Yup. A couple tings left unsaid in the "regression" narrative:
1. Both Adams and Wimbush were hurt for the last third of the season where their production fell off a cliff.
2. Teams we faced stopped letting us spread them out sideline-to-sideline... they stopped respecting the WR screen, etc. because we weren't effective on it. We didn't adjust our offensive scheme to account for stacking of the box and attacking the slow developing running plays.

So it was a combo of our coaches not putting the offense in position to succeed and them not being 100%. He didn't magically just go from lighting up USC and Wake to god awful over night because of magic or some other sudden nonsense.

I have had these thoughts as I've been recently rewatching last year's season (I'm not lame, YOU'RE lame). Its easy to only remember Miami Stanford and LSU at the end of the year, but he was killing people in September/October.

 

[IrishLion]

Yup. A couple tings left unsaid in the "regression" narrative:
1. Both Adams and Wimbush were hurt for the last third of the season where their production fell off a cliff.
2. Teams we faced stopped letting us spread them out sideline-to-sideline... they stopped respecting the WR screen, etc. because we weren't effective on it. We didn't adjust our offensive scheme to account for stacking of the box and attacking the slow developing running plays.

So it was a combo of our coaches not putting the offense in position to succeed and them not being 100%. He didn't magically just go from lighting up USC and Wake to god awful over night because of magic or some other sudden nonsense.

I have had these thoughts as I've been recently rewatching last year's season (I'm not lame, YOU'RE lame). Its easy to only remember Miami Stanford and LSU at the end of the year, but he was killing people in September/October.

I think the best example of Wimbush's potential, and the offense as a whole, even moreso than USC or NC State, is the Michigan State game.

They threw the ball down the field effectively against USC, and they ran roughshod over NC State, but they looked like a legitimate, balanced, attack-you-however-we-want offense against Sparty.

Wimbush ran, he threw the ball accurately both down the field and underneath, they used their quick screens and smoke routes to Claypool very effectively, they got it to ESB over the middle (which would be our TE's this year, probably), and they didn't wear Adams down by trying those slow-developing stretch plays too often.

Whatever they did against Sparty, they should have built on. And they showed flashes of going back to it against Wake, but as LAX said, Adams and Wimbush both got hurt that week, which obviously killed the offense's progression.

 

[koonja]

Watch the Miami game, LSU game, and Stanford game where he was 11-29 with 2 picks.

The team may have fallen apart, and the defense may have condensed, but that was because they didn't respect BW as a thrower, at all. That's why they loaded the box, that's why the WR screen was taken out, that's one of the reasons why Adams slowed down (coupled with injury).

Stats, theories, ideas aside - I cannot watch those games and think the QB is doing "well" even considering the circumstances. It was fugly.

 

[Luckylucci]

What’s funny about the discussion of Wimbush versus UM, is what about Shea Patterson. Wimbush has at least played well against some good opponents (USC, MSU, NCSU). Shea has been awful against any legitimate defense he’s played. So, while there may be concerns of Wimbush versus UM, what about Patterson versus ND? From the sounds of it, even people with decent expectations of this defense, think it might be even better after watching some of the DL, DB’s, and S’s they had questions about.

 

[koonja]

What’s funny about the discussion of Wimbush versus UM, is what about Shea Patterson. Wimbush has at least played well against some good opponents (USC, MSU, NCSU). Shea has been awful against any legitimate defense he’s played. So, while there may be concerns of Wimbush versus UM, what about Patterson versus ND? From the sounds of it, even people with decent expectations of this defense, think it might be even better after watching some of the DL, DB’s, and S’s they had questions about.

This I'm on board with - I'll post the stats per game in a second, but here's a quick link:

Ole Miss 2017 Schedule - Rebels Home and Away - ESPN

 

[koonja]

What’s funny about the discussion of Wimbush versus UM, is what about Shea Patterson. Wimbush has at least played well against some good opponents (USC, MSU, NCSU). Shea has been awful against any legitimate defense he’s played. So, while there may be concerns of Wimbush versus UM, what about Patterson versus ND? From the sounds of it, even people with decent expectations of this defense, think it might be even better after watching some of the DL, DB’s, and S’s they had questions about.

South Alabama: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Shea Patterson 28/35 429 12.3 4 0 91.0

UT Martin: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Shea Patterson 32/43 489 11.4 5 1 86.2

California: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Shea Patterson 26/44 363 8.3 2 3 27.5

Alabama: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Shea Patterson 14/29 165 5.7 0 2 7.2

Auburn: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Shea Patterson 34/51 346 6.8 2 0 47.7

Vandy: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Shea Patterson 22/35 351 10.0 4 0 87.1

LSU: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Shea Patterson 10/23 116 5.0 0 3 15.4

--- INJURY----

Arkansas: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Jordan Ta'amu 20/30 368 12.3 0 1 91.7

Kentucky: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Jordan Ta'amu 31/40 382 9.6 4 0 84.3

Louisiana: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Jordan Ta'amu 28/36 418 11.6 3 1 98.0

Texas A&M: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Jordan Ta'amu 19/34 189 5.6 2 1 16.5


Miss. State: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Jordan Ta'amu 10/22 247 11.2 2 1 36.2

Ole Miss 2017 Schedule - Rebels Home and Away - ESPN

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I'm not going to link it, because you probably wouldn't care anyway...

But, Eric Hansen has a great write up (with non-arbitrary evidence) that it's not that uncommon at all for a QB to click sometime after year 1.

I put said link it Wimbush thread. It was a great piece.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

I put said link it Wimbush thread. It was a great piece.

Koon doesn't care though, because clearly, it's propaganda and Hansen was paid off to write the piece by ND, in hopes of smoothing tension.

 

[greyhammer90]

So against Power 5 teams Patterson threw 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions? And 8 of those touchdowns came against Vanderbilt and Kentucky? Hmmmmmmm...

 

[koonja]

I put said link it Wimbush thread. It was a great piece.

Koon doesn't care though, because clearly, it's propaganda and Hansen was paid off to write the piece by ND, in hopes of smoothing tension.

QBs often get better in year 2. I don't need an article to show that. If you're going to only look that far, you found what you want to believe in.

But do those QBs who get better, get objectively worse as year 1 goes on? Have you looked that far?

Because what you point out is low hanging fruit that anyone with a beer can speak to intelligently. Show me the ones who nose dive in year 1 as the year ends.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Yeah, but that scUM team was awful lol.

And the current UM team has beaten 3 teams with winning records since 2016.

Funny enough, that awful 2014 team won more games against teams with winning records than last year's Michigan team did. In 2014, they beat 7-5 App State and 7-6 Penn State, while Michigan only beat 7-6 Purdue last year.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Patterson had a "good" game against Auburn, but that's purely from a statistical perspective. In reality, Auburn did the same to Patterson and Ole Miss that we did to Brian Lewerke and Michigan State. They essentially gave them enough rope to hang themselves. Lewerke statistically had a good game v. us, 31/51 and 340 yards. However, that's because ND was willing to let Michigan State methodically make their way down the field and bleed the clock dry. No reason not to. ND was up 38-10 by that point.

Auburn did the same. Up 35-3, they essentially gave Patterson the short passes and let Ole Miss slowly and methodically make their way into the redzone, and burn the clock.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

QBs often get better in year 2. I don't need an article to show that. If you're going to only look that far, you found what you want to believe in.

But do those QBs who get better, get objectively worse as year 1 goes on? Have you looked that far?

Because what you point out is low hanging fruit that anyone with a beer can speak to intelligently. Show me the ones who nose dive in year 1 as the year ends.

My dude.
The whole team took a dive...
AND Brandon was injured.

Should I find other QBs that started season on a team as hot as ND, RB gets injured, QB gets injured, and defense collapses?

You're cherry picking narratives to compare too. Good luck finding anyone...

I UNDERSTAND that Brandon could be "as bad or worse", but other QBs (who have also faced other types of adversity) HAVE responded.

Brandon faced adversity, just like the rest of Hansen's QBs.

 

[ulukinatme]

MGoBlow is pretty cocky right now. They think they have the best defense in the country and Shea is the next Tom Brady. Hope we crush them under the lights 37-0 again.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

MGoBlow is pretty cocky right now. They think they have the best defense in the country and Shea is the next Tom Brady. Hope we crush them under the lights 37-0 again.

That's not happening. This game is likely a toss-up. Our defense appears to be really good, their defense appears to be really good. Our offense is a question mark, their offense is probably a bigger question mark but not by much.

 

[Irish YJ]

In this case I really don’t think it’s fluff as he mentioned his GPS numbers are incredible on a daily basis, he recovers overnight, and there is no drop off the next day. Seemed like a pretty specific response to give that I would imagine was genuine. Really seemed like this caught their attention.

Thanks LL. I would love to see some of these guys really kill it.

I'm just glad everyone is talking about football again.

This...
But I do hate that the BW regression issue is part of the that "talking" lol

This I'm on board with - I'll post the stats per game in a second, but here's a quick link:

Ole Miss 2017 Schedule - Rebels Home and Away - ESPN

I posted stats/info on SP in the the scUM game thread I think. While talented and likely the best QB that Hairball has had, he shit the bed often against P5 teams.

So against Power 5 teams Patterson threw 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions? And 8 of those touchdowns came against Vanderbilt and Kentucky? Hmmmmmmm...

He was both an INT and a sack machine. His QB rating was turrible against any decent team. I think he was rated like 60th or something.

And he hasn't been good on the road at all. QBR was 26 @Cal which was ranked 93rd in total D.

I think we'll get INTs and Sacks assuming our D is what has been advertised.

Patterson had a "good" game against Auburn, but that's purely from a statistical perspective. In reality, Auburn did the same to Patterson and Ole Miss that we did to Brian Lewerke and Michigan State. They essentially gave them enough rope to hang themselves. Lewerke statistically had a good game v. us, 31/51 and 340 yards. However, that's because ND was willing to let Michigan State methodically make their way down the field and bleed the clock dry. No reason not to. ND was up 38-10 by that point.

Auburn did the same. Up 35-3, they essentially gave Patterson the short passes and let Ole Miss slowly and methodically make their way into the redzone, and burn the clock.

This is exactly what an Auburn fan told me.

 

[Irish YJ]

That's not happening. This game is likely a toss-up. Our defense appears to be really good, their defense appears to be really good. Our offense is a question mark, their offense is probably a bigger question mark but not by much.

Ugly game, ND by 10 or 14pts.
Patterson takes the "Bad QB play" prize in a narrow win over a sloppy but effective runner BW.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

Is it? In most cases, sure. But he literally got worse as the season went on. That's not normal for young QBs, and it's certainly not a good indicator of where he's headed.

A lot of what happened IMO is that teams eventually got enough tape on the offense to figure out how to beat us. This has happened repeatedly in the BK era, which is responsible for a lot of the end of year collapses we've seen. BK's offenses tend to be very reactive to what the defense is trying to do, which is sometimes good (for example slinging the ball against a stacked box), but often times this allows the defense to dictate in predictable fashion the offense that they see. It's not like Wimbush was throwing particularly well earlier in the year, but teams knew that Wimbush couldn't beat them with his arm we got exposed.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

Ugly game, ND by 10 or 14pts.
Patterson takes the "Bad QB play" prize in a narrow win over a sloppy but effective runner BW.

If the first score is a Julian Love pick-6 I'd be so happy.

 

[dublinirish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Daelin Hayes, Julian Okwara Battling Off Notre Dame’s Edge.<br><br>(FREE) story via Tim O’Malley.<a href="https://t.co/o566ivGE9o">https://t.co/o566ivGE9o</a> <a href="https://t.co/5fZCYUD3sq">pic.twitter.com/5fZCYUD3sq</a></p>— Kevin Sinclair (@KevinSinclair_) <a href="https://twitter.com/KevinSinclair_/status/1027951583160463362?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Irish YJ]

If the first score is a Julian Love pick-6 I'd be so happy.

Based on his results last year and assuming our D is top 25 like most say, I think we'll see 2-3 INTs, and 3 or more sacks of SP. He had 2 or more INTs against any team with a decent D (Cal's D sucked and he threw 3 picks) except for Auburn, who gave them the underneath.

Athlon ranks us:
18th best DBs
21st best DL
8th best LB

Michigan is top 5 in all categories.

 

[stlnd01]

A lot of what happened IMO is that teams eventually got enough tape on the offense to figure out how to beat us. This has happened repeatedly in the BK era, which is responsible for a lot of the end of year collapses we've seen. BK's offenses tend to be very reactive to what the defense is trying to do, which is sometimes good (for example slinging the ball against a stacked box), but often times this allows the defense to dictate in predictable fashion the offense that they see. It's not like Wimbush was throwing particularly well earlier in the year, but teams knew that Wimbush couldn't beat them with his arm we got exposed.

To be fair, Georgia in Week Two did the exact same thing to our running game that Miami did in Week Ten, with similar results. I’m not sure it was “figuring us out” so much as having the athletes necessary to execute, and, then, Wimbush’s inability to adapt.