2018 Fall Camp Thread

[GowerND11]

Imagine ND coming out at wishbone against Michigan......

Also, our DL looks damn big.

 

[NDMIA]

This is the most excited I've been about a ND team in a long time.
If BW can throw, we're National Championship ceiling. If not, we'll have 3 or 4 losses.

I think we're really good, if not great, at every position on the field...including running back. BW can become a legend with this team.

#13 Stanford
#14 Michigan
@ #15 USC
@ #17 VT
#19 FSU

Just as a comparison. Bleacher report ranked Nebraska as having the hardest FBS schedule in one of their rankings lists. They have

@ #3 Ohio State
@ #7 Wisconsin
#12 Michigan State
@ #14 Michigan

Obviously this doesn’t include number of bowl teams, win percentage from last season, or a whole host of other factors, but I’m trying to illustrate that ND has an incredibly difficult schedule to navigate with enormous amounts of travel and not too many bye weeks or easy games on the schedule. Now I do think Notre Dame is deep, hungry, and really good on defense, but I don’t want to just go in and say they should be #1 this year. They have to sort out their running game, figure out their LT situation, and find some WR’s who can consistently get open. If they can figure that stuff out with Chip Long & Brian Kelly at the helm to go along with Brandon Wimbush improving then they’ve got a shot at the playoffs. It also helps that because the schedule seems so tough, they should be able to get in at 12-0/11-1 if they can get there.

 

[IrishLax]

#13 Stanford
#14 Michigan
@ #15 USC
@ #17 VT
#19 FSU

Just as a comparison. Bleacher report ranked Nebraska as having the hardest FBS schedule in one of their rankings lists. They have

@ #3 Ohio State
@ #7 Wisconsin
#12 Michigan State
@ #14 Michigan

Obviously this doesn’t include number of bowl teams, win percentage from last season, or a whole host of other factors, but I’m trying to illustrate that ND has an incredibly difficult schedule to navigate with enormous amounts of travel and not too many bye weeks or easy games on the schedule. Now I do think Notre Dame is deep, hungry, and really good on defense, but I don’t want to just go in and say they should be #1 this year. They have to sort out their running game, figure out their LT situation, and find some WR’s who can consistently get open. If they can figure that stuff out with Chip Long & Brian Kelly at the helm to go along with Brandon Wimbush improving then they’ve got a shot at the playoffs. It also helps that because the schedule seems so tough, they should be able to get in at 12-0/11-1 if they can get there.

The one saving grace of our schedule is that -- on paper -- we don't play a truly "elite" team like Bama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson.

Stanford, Michigan, and FSU could all turn out to be Tier 1 teams... as could USC, hypothetically, if young guys step up for them... but right now there isn't a single team you look at and go "oh yeah we're going to need to get REALLY lucky to win." Instead, it looks like 5 pretty even contests... like you said, the hardest part is the lack of breaks which could lead to trap games.

Virginia Tech is one of the hardest environments to play at on the road, too. Many a superior team has gone into Blacksburg and left with an L.

 

[Valpodoc85]

At some point South Bend needs to be more like Blacksburg

 

[greyhammer90]

Sampson's practice report on the Athletic has me worried about Wimbush. Basically says at times he looks incredible and at other times he looks like he won't make it through the year. So frustrating that the rest of this team looks ready to roll.

 

[Irish YJ]

Sampson's practice report on the Athletic has me worried about Wimbush. Basically says at times he looks incredible and at other times he looks like he won't make it through the year. So frustrating that the rest of this team looks ready to roll.

ughhhh. my hype boner just went limp.

It will be a long painful year if the consistency is not there. I hope this is not the case, but if so, I hope they make a change sooner than later.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

https://youtu.be/KJq0Sgo0KJo

Didn't want to post this in Chases thread, to spare a few heart attacks.

This type of monster day is what I hope to see more of from him.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[calvegas04]

Sampson's practice report on the Athletic has me worried about Wimbush. Basically says at times he looks incredible and at other times he looks like he won't make it through the year. So frustrating that the rest of this team looks ready to roll.

Book for QB

 

[BobbyMac]

I've been looking at his footwork/posture today both in camp film and now this WF highlight and he scares me when his feet get wide and he gets short. Looks like he's ready to bolt instead of calmly going through his progressions and standing tall, with a slight knee bend and that confident bounce the great one's have as they survey their options.

 

[snoopdog]

The Michigan D is going to have BW as antsy as hell if he isn’t mentally dialed in.

 

[BGIF]

...

Virginia Tech is one of the hardest environments to play at on the road, too. Many a superior team has gone into Blacksburg and left with an L.

I think you may be thinking of the Beamer glory years and not recent events.

First of all VT doesn't play many superior teams period and in the past 5 years have only played 4 ranked teams at home losing 3 of 4 including one to Duke and another UNC neither of whom are though of as superior teams.

The home games with ranked opponents:
'13 None
'14 None
'15 #1 OSU 24-42 Loss, #23 Duke 45-43 Loss, #12 UNC 30-27 Loss
'16 None
'17 Clem 31-17 Loss

 

[BGIF]

At some point South Bend needs to be more like Blacksburg

Play a wimpy home schedule?

Kiss the TV contract goodbye.

 

[T-Boone]

The Michigan D is going to have BW as antsy as hell if he isn’t mentally dialed in.

I don't know, I thought he handled getting shifted for Book in the Bowl game very maturely.

I would say in the back of his mind he would be thinking there are times this season he may need to get pulled out and can survive with it not being the end of the line for him.

There are several teams on the schedule that he could probably run for 5 touchdowns against.

I thought part of his problem last year was he was too highly strung and seemed obsessed with not throwing interceptions.

 

[dublinirish]

BGI did a August 9th practice report podcast

Yoon looks great, ball explodes off his foot.
Ian Book is the starting holder.

Lawrence Keyes looks good, fastest WR off the ball and knows how to get open.

Dirksen looks physically ready and good in the run game as second team RT

Patterson good feet, undersized but competing as second team LT with Banks out.

WR's inconsistent, too many drops. Secondary is strong though.

Alize had the catch of the day.

C'bo and Jahmir Smith didnt practice. Dexter got more reps but Tony Jones is looking good.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Sampson's practice report on the Athletic has me worried about Wimbush. Basically says at times he looks incredible and at other times he looks like he won't make it through the year. So frustrating that the rest of this team looks ready to roll.

I've been looking at his footwork/posture today both in camp film and now this WF highlight and he scares me when his feet get wide and he gets short. Looks like he's ready to bolt instead of calmly going through his progressions and standing tall, with a slight knee bend and that confident bounce the great one's have as they survey their options.

Talk about raining on a parade. At least my expectations are being tempered. If he's skittish or going wide against Michigan, it's going to be a coin toss.

Hopefully Kelly and Long game plan for quick reads/quick decisions and hopefully our line can open up some running lanes.

Michigan's defense will be a great test.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Sampson's practice report on the Athletic has me worried about Wimbush. Basically says at times he looks incredible and at other times he looks like he won't make it through the year. So frustrating that the rest of this team looks ready to roll.

Pete is the best in the business imo...But, I think he's stirring the pot here some.

1) He listed Brandon on his list of "players that caught his eye" (which, the rest of the players had good days, so, it would seem Brandon did well too).

2) Other reporters have been overall very positive with what they have seen. When Brandon has had bad throws, they said he is bouncing right back now (huge improvement).

3) I think that Pete is trying to generate some buzz with his new venture and the "Is Wimbush a deer" headlines drive clicks, bigly.


Also,

If Everett Golson can make it (pretty much all the way) through a season, Brandon can too.

 

[NDdomer2]

Talk about raining on a parade. At least my expectations are being tempered. If he's skittish or going wide against Michigan, it's going to be a coin toss.

Hopefully Kelly and Long game plan for quick reads/quick decisions and hopefully our line can open up some running lanes.

Michigan's defense will be a great test.

I think to expect him to go from 49.5% completion rate (122 out of 125 qualified) and a passing rating of 121.4 (98 out of 125 qualified) to 70% (PY lead in all college qualified, Baker Mayfield) and 198.9 (PY lead, Baker Mayfield) is obviously not going to happen. But maybe a 10% increase in completion percentage, i.e. around 60% completion would put him around 60th out of 125 qualified. Taking the average qb rating of those last year who had 60% completion percentage was 136.5, which would also fall around 60th of 125 qualified.

You would have to think with his legs that makes us a very dangerous team. For instance I extrapolated his PY stats to a new completion percentage (10% increase is 59.5) would have been roughly another 28 receptions. he averaged 13.75 yards per completion, so an additional 379.8 yards. He averaged .12 TD per completion, or an additional 3.25 TD's.

That would put his yearly stats at 164/275 for 2,249.8 yards 19.25 TD's, compared to 136/275 for 1,870 yards and 16 tds.

I know this is some rudimentary extrapolation here. But I'd take that growth in a heart beat and think we could be very dangerous once you add in his rushing (py 803 yards and 14 TD's).

Might be just me, but I am more concerned about our OL vs Michigan than I am Brandon.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

I think to expect him to go from 49.5% completion rate (122 out of 125 qualified) and a passing rating of 121.4 (98 out of 125 qualified) to 70% (PY lead in all college qualified, Baker Mayfield) and 198.9 (PY lead, Baker Mayfield) is obviously not going to happen. But maybe a 10% increase in completion percentage, i.e. around 60% completion would put him around 60th out of 125 qualified. Taking the average qb rating of those last year who had 60% completion percentage was 136.5, which would also fall around 60th of 125 qualified.

You would have to think with his legs that makes us a very dangerous team. For instance I extrapolated his PY stats to a new completion percentage (10% increase is 59.5) would have been roughly another 28 receptions. he averaged 13.75 yards per completion, so an additional 379.8 yards. He averaged .12 TD per completion, or an additional 3.25 TD's.

That would put his yearly stats at 164/275 for 2,249.8 yards 19.25 TD's, compared to 136/275 for 1,870 yards and 16 tds.

I know this is some rudimentary extrapolation here. But I'd take that growth in a heart beat and think we could be very dangerous once you add in his rushing (py 803 yards and 14 TD's).

Might be just me, but I am more concerned about our OL vs Michigan than I am Brandon.

Bingo. I think the line will be good, but UM is going to be the biggest test all year, and no warmup game to gel.

(also, I am slightly, slightly concerned about the D with Lea, just because it's "different")

 

[koonja]

Pete is the best in the business imo...But, I think he's stirring the pot here some.

1) He listed Brandon on his list of "players that caught his eye" (which, the rest of the players had good days, so, it would seem Brandon did well too).

2) Other reporters have been overall very positive with what they have seen. When Brandon has had bad throws, they said he is bouncing right back now (huge improvement).

3) I think that Pete is trying to generate some buzz with his new venture and the "Is Wimbush a deer" headlines drive clicks, bigly.


Also,

If Everett Golson can make it (pretty much all the way) through a season, Brandon can too.

You don't know Pete then. There is no one classier, or more above "stirring the pot".

Moreover, much of what you said is innaccurate. Pete listed him as standing out for one practice, not the past 8 days overall. And all analysts have said he looks good, seems comfortable, but has been up and down like most shakey QBs are. ISD's Thursday report talked about him having a below average day, and Matt Freeman specifically said Book was better on Thursday.

Pete's probably on the money - and it's reasonable to believe the BW who got progressively worse last year and lost his job in 2 of the last 3 games, didn't all of a sudden find "it" over the summer.

We have to face realistic expectations with Wimbush or there's a very good chance everyone is going to be trashing him at half time of the Michigan game.

 

[IrishFanJMercy]

If wimbush can get the short 5-10 yard pass down then his % should go up 15% easily this is the number 1 problem he had last year No reason why he should be around 60-65 % this year

 

[greyhammer90]

Bingo. I think the line will be good, but UM is going to be the biggest test all year, and no warmup game to gel.

(also, I am slightly, slightly concerned about the D with Lea, just because it's "different")

I'm "unconcerned" because I'm walking into the game assuming we will be losing that matchup. I'm high on the potential of the OL but its a really tough test for an opener. I just don't see a way that Michigan doesn't get a lot of pressure on Wimbush over the course of the game. This means we need our skill players to ball out, which means we need them to get them the ball in smart locations and in stride.

I agree with you on being worried about the Defense, but unless Lea turns out to be a total bust as a gametime DC (which is always possible), I have to think that the sheer amount of talent and returning snaps will make us above average on that side of the ball. There's also a small chance that he's a wunderkind at calling games, in which case we would be straight up scary on that side of the ball.

 

[Luckylucci]

I hope this is truth, and not him fluffing.
I want to be excited, but I've been concerned all year about the RB position.
As long as BW is effective throwing, I think we will be successful regardless of who is running.

In this case I really don’t think it’s fluff as he mentioned his GPS numbers are incredible on a daily basis, he recovers overnight, and there is no drop off the next day. Seemed like a pretty specific response to give that I would imagine was genuine. Really seemed like this caught their attention.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

You don't know Pete then. There is no one classier, or more above "stirring the pot".

Moreover, much of what you said is innaccurate. Pete listed him as standing out for one practice, not the past 8 days overall. And all analysts have said he looks good, seems comfortable, but has been up and down like most shakey QBs are. ISD's Thursday report talked about him having a below average day, and Matt Freeman specifically said Book was better on Thursday.

Pete's probably on the money - and it's reasonable to believe the BW who got progressively worse last year and lost his job in 2 of the last 3 games, didn't all of a sudden find "it" over the summer.

We have to face realistic expectations with Wimbush or there's a very good chance everyone is going to be trashing him at half time of the Michigan game.

I literally said Pete is the best in the business.

Also, my point is, Brandon (i'm sure) has been inconsistent again. However, by having Pete say the phrase "might not be able to make it throw the season" is misleading. Because, (idiots) will run wild misquoting saying that he's not ready. But in actuality, Pete also described him as "incredible".

I do think it was dramatic of him. He could have left it was "inconsistent" or "reminiscent of last year". But, he's playing into the drama of the narrative.

I want more objective reporting, less subjective.

 

[greyhammer90]

I'm just glad everyone is talking about football again.

 

[koonja]

I literally said Pete is the best in the business.

Also, my point is, Brandon (i'm sure) has been inconsistent again. However, by having Pete say the phrase "might not be able to make it throw the season" is misleading. Because, (idiots) will run wild misquoting saying that he's not ready. But in actuality, Pete also described him as "incredible".

I do think it was dramatic of him. He could have left it was "inconsistent" or "reminiscent of last year". But, he's playing into the drama of the narrative.

I want more objective reporting, less subjective.

Do people actually think if Vegas did a line on "Will Wimbush start all season", it'd be likely he does?

I think there's probably a ~80% chance he gets pulled at some point this year, and not due to injury. We know what we have in Book, and he's only gotten better, per reports. There's a ~30% chance he gets sat versus Michigan alone probably.

And Brandon's trajectory as the year went on was that of an airplane nose diving into the ocean.

Other than hope and prayer, IMO there should be little faith that Brandon all of a sudden has "it".

Remember - Brandon looked "awesome" all of camp last year. Then the season hit defenses started blitzing, and corners started covering.

 

[IrishLion]

I'm "unconcerned" because I'm walking into the game assuming we will be losing that matchup. I'm high on the potential of the OL but its a really tough test for an opener. I just don't see a way that Michigan doesn't get a lot of pressure on Wimbush over the course of the game. This means we need our skill players to ball out, which means we need them to get them the ball in smart locations and in stride.

I agree with you on being worried about the Defense, but unless Lea turns out to be a total bust as a gametime DC (which is always possible), I have to think that the sheer amount of talent and returning snaps will make us above average on that side of the ball. There's also a small chance that he's a wunderkind at calling games, in which case we would be straight up scary on that side of the ball.

I think we can win, but only if BK is heavily involved in creating Long's play sheet for the first two drives of the game. After that, you're off script anyway, so we need to see BK do what he does best: Script a play sheet that settles everyone in and attacks the defense in foolproof ways.

If everyone executes, they're going to score. BK draws up a scripted drive better than any other coach in the country, probably. He'll account for Eichenberg starting his first game against the best combo of pass rushers in the country, he'll account for the need to get Wimbush settled in immediately, and he'll account for the defense not knowing exactly how our RB's and TE's are going to get after them with the monster WR's drawing attention on the outside.

If they execute whatever he comes up with on the first drive, and then Long settles in calling the plays once they're off the script, I think the team can settle in and deal with scUM's defense.

If we see an early delay of game, followed by a tackle for loss, a Wimbush over-throw, and then an ineffective draw play, it's going to be a long night.

 

[arrowryan]

I think some need to relax and quit running for the hills every time they hear that Wimbush throws a wobbly ball. I was very critical of him at times last year and was skeptical of him being able to make the appropriate adjustments in the off season. But we (including me) need to remember that he literally went from third string to starter in one spring/summer and it is just his second year as the starter.

If we had a quarterback with Tommy Rees mobility and we would only be able to move the ball if he completed 70%+ of his passes, then yeah go ahead and be worried. But we won 10 game last year with a first year starting quarterback that struggled to complete 50% of his passes. Sure, he might throw a duck here and there but I'll live with if he be around 60% competition percentage and always be a very dangerous threat to run it.

Also, Pete Sampson has seen about 1.5 practices. Its nice to read his practice reports, but he's seen a pretty small sample size from practice.

 

[greyhammer90]

I think we can win.

I agree with everything you said and to be clear, I think we can win too. If I had to bet I'd put my money on ND. But I think its going to be a rough night for pass protection and Wimbush is going to have to run for his life a lot. Luckily, he's very very good at running for his life.

 

[arrowryan]

Do people actually think if Vegas did a line on "Will Wimbush start all season", it'd be likely he does?

I think there's probably a ~80% chance he gets pulled at some point this year, and not due to injury. We know what we have in Book, and he's only gotten better, per reports. There's a ~30% chance he gets sat versus Michigan alone probably.

And Brandon's trajectory as the year went on was that of an airplane nose diving into the ocean.

Other than hope and prayer, IMO there should be little faith that Brandon all of a sudden has "it".

Remember - Brandon looked "awesome" all of camp last year. Then the season hit defenses started blitzing, and corners started covering.

Yeah, thats usually what happens for a first year starter in all levels of football. You can practice all you want and watch a million minutes of film, but it isn't the real thing. He might not go from 2017 Wimbush to Tom Brady, but I think its foolish to think that he hasn't learned and will be better in 2018.

And I'd love to hear where you're getting these awesome percentages for if he gets benched or not.

 

[koonja]

Yeah, thats usually what happens for a first year starter in all levels of football. You can practice all you want and watch a million minutes of film, but it isn't the real thing. He might not go from 2017 Wimbush to Tom Brady, but I think its foolish to think that he hasn't learned and will be better in 2018.

And I'd love to hear where you're getting these awesome percentages for if he gets benched or not.

They're arbitrarily, obviously. Do you agree with them? What are your percentages?