2018 CFP Rankings

dad4aa · Nov 27, 2018

Irish Insanity said:
So if UGA wins they're in. But I don't see them seeding for a repeat of a game that was just played. Which would then leave us to play Bama I assume, and a drop to #4.

I don’t think so. As others have said, Georgia would have to move ahead of Alabama since they beat them. Georgia would not also leap Clemson so that would leave Clemson at 1. They would not want Georgia and Alabama to play again in back-to-back games so Georgia would be 2 or 3 and Bama 4 leaving ND at the remaining 2 or 3 spot. I don’t see any way we play Bama first.

Circa · Nov 27, 2018

Irish YJ said:
explains some of the gifs. are you very feverish?

not saying it will happy, just saying it's the only plausible way ND could drop.

Talent, and stats wise, it's absolutely the best match up.

If you look at just about every stat, OSU is the best team match up with Bama of the two. OSU's advanced stats on OL are top 10, where OK's is like 50ish IIRC. Haskins is not a running QB, but he can extend plays. IMO, Bama would get a rush with 3 or 4 guys vs OK, and are plenty athletic to contain KM. OSU might have enough OL gumption to give Haskins enough time. Defensively, it's not even debatable.

North Buffalo Irish · Nov 27, 2018

From 538:

Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma AND Ohio State win.

Chances of happening: 31 percent
Likely playoff field: Alabama (>99 percent), Clemson (>99), Ohio State (69), Oklahoma (69)
Others: Notre Dame (62 percent)

Under this very plausible situation — the most likely on this list, in fact — the committee would have to make a tough choice among Ohio State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame for the third and fourth playoff seeds. Lacking any kind of special Notre Dame adjustment, the model thinks OSU and OU would come out ahead. Realistically speaking, however, it’s difficult to imagine that the committee would exclude an undefeated Irish squad, right or wrong. So that means it would come down to splitting hairs between the Buckeyes and Sooners. Good luck with that.

I can't believe their model has ND with a lower chance of getting in than both Ohio State and OU in this case. Conference championships over teams like Northwestern, Pitt and even Texas aren't really that impressive.

Irish YJ · Nov 27, 2018

North Buffalo Irish said:
From 538:

I can't believe their model has ND with a lower chance of getting in than both Ohio State and OU in this case. Conference championships over teams like Northwestern, Pitt and even Texas aren't really that impressive.

538 needs to stick to politics, which they don't do well in either....

Circa · Nov 27, 2018

Irishnuke said:
This is my mindset too. Obviously Bama is the much better all around team and obviously OU's defense is a total dumpster fire, but I think OU's offense is really the only team that can do damage against Bama. Kyler Murray, who is a bit of a douche, is pretty electric on the field and I think could give Bama problems. OU's D is definitely going to give up at least 40 points but I think their O could hang with Bama for a while.

Maybe I don't actually believe this and I'm just really hoping someone else beats Bama so we don't have to play them if we beat whoever we play.

ND88 · Nov 27, 2018

Circa · Nov 27, 2018

ND88 said:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HLkkY8mTUTQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Oklahoma fan arguing that Notre Dame shouldn't be in because Notre Dame plays a soft schedule and doesn't play by the rules of conference standards, yet money/prestige will guarantee ND in the CFP even though they are a glorified UCF. It's also unfair that Notre Dame should be able to rest while everyone else is strenuously battling it out for their conference championships. Have fun.

NorthDakota · Nov 27, 2018

ND88 said:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HLkkY8mTUTQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Oklahoma fan arguing that Notre Dame shouldn't be in because Notre Dame plays a soft schedule and doesn't play by the rules of conference standards, yet money/prestige will guarantee ND in the CFP even though they are a glorified UCF. It's also unfair that Notre Dame should be able to rest while everyone else is strenuously battling it out for their conference championships. Have fun.

....lmao....aren't they playing.....Texas? Isn't Ohio State playing.....Northwestern? lmao.

Irish YJ · Nov 27, 2018

ND88 said:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HLkkY8mTUTQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Oklahoma fan arguing that Notre Dame shouldn't be in because Notre Dame plays a soft schedule and doesn't play by the rules of conference standards, yet money/prestige will guarantee ND in the CFP even though they are a glorified UCF. It's also unfair that Notre Dame should be able to rest while everyone else is strenuously battling it out for their conference championships. Have fun.

he lost me when his math said that 29 = 4TDs + 1XP
i don't think he even believes what he's saying.
Love he leaves out SoR..

IrishLax · Nov 27, 2018

I couldn't make it 30 seconds into the video. Hit the dislike button and went straight to the comment section. Going to be hilarious watching them lose by 5 TDs to Bama.

IrishFaninTX · Nov 27, 2018

ND88 said:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HLkkY8mTUTQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Oklahoma fan arguing that Notre Dame shouldn't be in because Notre Dame plays a soft schedule and doesn't play by the rules of conference standards, yet money/prestige will guarantee ND in the CFP even though they are a glorified UCF. It's also unfair that Notre Dame should be able to rest while everyone else is strenuously battling it out for their conference championships. Have fun.

This is such a dumb argument. ND plays teams from almost every power 5 conference each year and play teams like USC, Stanford, FSU, Michigan, etc. Yeah they have cupcakes but so does every other school. No one can play more than 4 or 5 ranked opponents in a season and have a realistic shot at going undefeated. Even the almighty Alabama only played 2 or 3 ranked teams. Only 1 was a top 15 and somehow that team is still in the top 10. ND beat Michigan, Syracuse, Northwestern, and Pitt. And Stanford and VT were both ranked at the time we played them. If those last 2 hadn't gone downhill after we beat them, we would have beat 6 ranked teams on the season. But we played a soft schedule. Can't help that the traditional powers weren't good this year. Most years this would have been a brutal schedule, especially with NW, SU, and even Pitt having decent seasons.

NDMIA · Nov 27, 2018

Irish YJ said:
he lost me when his math said that 29 = 4TDs + 1XP
i don't think he even believes what he's saying.
Love he leaves out SoR..

Dude said Mental Prepartation...lol

Irish Insanity · Nov 27, 2018

Bishop2b5 said:
Bama would likely go to 4 and face #1 Clemson with ND and UGA at 2 & 3.

dad4aa said:
I don’t think so. As others have said, Georgia would have to move ahead of Alabama since they beat them. Georgia would not also leap Clemson so that would leave Clemson at 1. They would not want Georgia and Alabama to play again in back-to-back games so Georgia would be 2 or 3 and Bama 4 leaving ND at the remaining 2 or 3 spot. I don’t see any way we play Bama first.

The # isn't what concerns me, the opponent is. But I don't see any of the teams expected to be in the playoffs as 'easy' for us. So I guess it wouldn't matter.

WaveDomer · Nov 28, 2018

ND88 said:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HLkkY8mTUTQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Oklahoma fan arguing that Notre Dame shouldn't be in because Notre Dame plays a soft schedule and doesn't play by the rules of conference standards, yet money/prestige will guarantee ND in the CFP even though they are a glorified UCF. It's also unfair that Notre Dame should be able to rest while everyone else is strenuously battling it out for their conference championships. Have fun.

This guy lives in his Mom’s basement and his year is scheduled around Comic-Con.

Bishop2b5 · Nov 28, 2018

dad4aa said:
I don’t think so. As others have said, Georgia would have to move ahead of Alabama since they beat them. Georgia would not also leap Clemson so that would leave Clemson at 1. They would not want Georgia and Alabama to play again in back-to-back games so Georgia would be 2 or 3 and Bama 4 leaving ND at the remaining 2 or 3 spot. I don’t see any way we play Bama first.

The only plausible scenario I can see would be if Bama beats UGA, but it's an extremely well-fought, close game... maybe a couple of OT's. It would be hard to argue that UGA wasn't one of the 4 best teams then. In that scenario, they wouldn't want UGA at #4 to play Bama in back-to-back games, so might put them at #3 and ND at #4 just to avoid that. None of this is likely, but it's the only way I see Bama & ND meeting in the semi's.

stlnd01 · Nov 28, 2018

The only way I could see that we play Bama in the first round is if Clemson and Bama both lose Saturday. We jump to 1 and Bama gets the four seed. (With Georgia 2 and either Oklahoma or OSU are 3.

This seems unlikely.

IrishSteelhead · Nov 28, 2018

IrishLax said:
I couldn't make it 30 seconds into the video. Hit the dislike button and went straight to the comment section. Going to be hilarious watching them lose by 5 TDs to Bama.

You gotta admit this comment is funny:

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Irish#1 · Nov 28, 2018

Bishop2b5 said:
I wish I had y'all's confidence in Bama. As a fan, I'm still nervous as hell and seeing all the flaws and exploitable weaknesses that can get us embarrassed and keep us from hoisting the big trophy. I know any of the top few teams can beat us if we have an off day. That off day scares me.

You're right. That third string corner and scout team LT have a lot of improving to do.

Irish#1 · Nov 28, 2018

Irish YJ said:
I think OK would score, but not like they do in the Big12. And OK literally might never stop Bama O. Give me OSU who has the potential the play on both sides of the ball. OSU has proven they can score vs a top 5 D. OK probably hasn't played a team in the top 25 D. OSU is #2 in total O (yrds/game), and has played better Ds, even if OK is #1. The numbers just don't bare out for OK.

scUM has a decent D, but it's overrated and OSU showed that. They built that playing against a lot of lousy teams with no speed.

IrishRamMan10 · Nov 28, 2018

Anyone have more insight on if they will move the Bama OU game to Miami if OU is 4? A Dallas trip will be about 3 to 4 times cheaper for me.

IrishLax · Nov 28, 2018

In S&P+ defensive rankings, the only Big 12 teams inside the top 50 (FIFTY!) Are Iowa State at 30 and Texas at 50. Literally no one in that conference plays any kind of defense, so it's impossible to know if Oklahoma's offense is as good as they appear on paper. The Big 12 is worse at defense than multiple Group of 5 conferences because of lack of talent coupled with a lack of focus on that side of the ball. All the other Power 5 conferences have at least a couple teams that are capable on defense.

Oklahoma's defense is 84th. If they play Bama, they will get zero stops. Stone cold lock of the year is a team like Bama rolling Oklahoma for the inverted reason to why they rolled LSU... you cannot bear them with a one-dimensional team.

Pops Freshenmeyer · Nov 28, 2018

IrishLax said:
In S&P+ defensive rankings, the only Big 12 teams inside the top 50 (FIFTY!) Are Iowa State at 30 and Texas at 50. Literally no one in that conference plays any kind of defense, so it's impossible to know if Oklahoma's offense is as good as they appear on paper. The Big 12 is worse at defense than multiple Group of 5 conferences because of lack of talent coupled with a lack of focus on that side of the ball. All the other Power 5 conferences have at least a couple teams that are capable on defense.

Oklahoma's defense is 84th. If they play Bama, they will get zero stops. Stone cold lock of the year is a team like Bama rolling Oklahoma for the inverted reason to why they rolled LSU... you cannot bear them with a one-dimensional team.

I bet all my vbucks they get a stop.

If their defense really is that shitty then they should never punt and on-side kick it all day. It would be fun if they had the stones to try that.

Some Irish Bloke · Nov 28, 2018

IrishLax said:
In S&P+ defensive rankings, the only Big 12 teams inside the top 50 (FIFTY!) Are Iowa State at 30 and Texas at 50. Literally no one in that conference plays any kind of defense, so it's impossible to know if Oklahoma's offense is as good as they appear on paper. The Big 12 is worse at defense than multiple Group of 5 conferences because of lack of talent coupled with a lack of focus on that side of the ball. All the other Power 5 conferences have at least a couple teams that are capable on defense.

Oklahoma's defense is 84th. If they play Bama, they will get zero stops. Stone cold lock of the year is a team like Bama rolling Oklahoma for the inverted reason to why they rolled LSU... you cannot bear them with a one-dimensional team.

This kind of tells the tale of how Iowa State was able to rise up in the conference the past two seasons. Pretty amazing what can happen when you're playing decent defense that can get stops once in a while.

The Big 12 is my least favorite "brand" of football by far, and it pains me to see the NFL is adopting this style as well.

Give me 17-14 over 56-49 any day of the week. Call me old school if you must.

GowerND11 · Nov 28, 2018

Some Irish Bloke said:
This kind of tells the tale of how Iowa State was able to rise up in the conference the past two seasons. Pretty amazing what can happen when you're playing decent defense that can get stops once in a while.

The Big 12 is my least favorite "brand" of football by far, and it pains me to see the NFL is adopting this style as well.

Give me 17-14 over 56-49 any day of the week. Call me old school if you must.

As a fan of football, I love points. Give me ND dropping 40 every game, and I'll love watching that. Nothing like some good MACtion as they shoot it out.

As a person who loves the game of football, studying it, the history, coaching it, etc etc. I enjoy those close 17-14, 21-20 games. They have a certain chess match about them.

DO NOT want to ever watch that abomination of a game that MSU and Nebraska played though.

Irish YJ · Nov 28, 2018

Pops Freshenmeyer said:
I bet all my vbucks they get a stop.

If their defense really is that shitty then they should never punt and on-side kick it all day. It would be fun if they had the stones to try that.

They might get a stop in the 4Q when Hurts goes in....

Some Irish Bloke said:
This kind of tells the tale of how Iowa State was able to rise up in the conference the past two seasons. Pretty amazing what can happen when you're playing decent defense that can get stops once in a while.

The Big 12 is my least favorite "brand" of football by far, and it pains me to see the NFL is adopting this style as well.

Give me 17-14 over 56-49 any day of the week. Call me old school if you must.

Let's not forget that OK was held to it's lowest points total (28) by a team that has a decent D (Army - pure stats have them ranked 11th yrds/game). Seven pt game that was tied going into the 4Q, and ended in OT.
Bama D = 1000 X Army D

ND88 · Nov 28, 2018

It would be fun if:

1. Alabama loses. (Yeah, right.)

2. Clemson loses.

3. Oklahoma loses.

4. Ohio St. loses.

At least, 3 out of the 4. Or even two, I'll take two.

Someone make a vision board.

Irish YJ · Nov 28, 2018

ND88 said:
It would be fun if:

1. Alabama loses. (Yeah, right.)

2. Clemson loses.

3. Oklahoma loses.

4. Ohio St. loses.

At least, 3 out of the 4. Or even two, I'll take two.

Someone make a vision board.

While all should win, I would not be surprised to see a couple lose. It will be interesting to see what D strategy Narduzzi dials up. I just can't see Pitt scoring a lot. They are good running the ball, but Clemson is great defending the run. UGA is solid enough on D, but their O is one dimensional, so I don't see that game being much a contest either.

Both TX and OK will toss it all over the place, but I think TX will do fine limiting OK's running game. I can see this as the most likely upset as TX at least plays decently on D. OSU SHOULD kill NW, but OSU sucks against the pass. Thorson will have to have a perfect game, and not throw so many damn INTs.

IrishLax · Nov 28, 2018

The Big 12 will try very hard to protect Oklahoma... but the Sooners (who are 125th in total defense in the last month) probably should be a 3 loss team, and I could easily see them losing to Texas again. They have been downright mediocre since Week 6. With the exception of blowouts of bad KSU and TCU, here is their end of the season.

-Loss to Texas
-Nailbiter against Texas Tech
-Nailbiter winning because Oklahoma State missed a PAT
-40 points given up to Kansas
-700 yards to WVU winning because of some lucky bounces of the ball

So they've sucked ass against mostly mediocre competition. They might be the most fraudulent team of all time.

Rudy89 · Nov 28, 2018

WaveDomer said:
This guy lives in his Mom’s basement and his year is scheduled around Comic-Con.

I have my own house but I do schedule my vacation for comic con....don’t be knocking comic con I met Sean Astin there!

Irish YJ · Nov 28, 2018

IrishLax said:
The Big 12 will try very hard to protect Oklahoma... but the Sooners (who are 125th in total defense in the last month) probably should be a 3 loss team, and I could easily see them losing to Texas again. They have been downright mediocre since Week 6. With the exception of blowouts of bad KSU and TCU, here is their end of the season.

-Loss to Texas
-Nailbiter against Texas Tech
-Nailbiter winning because Oklahoma State missed a PAT
-40 points given up to Kansas
-700 yards to WVU winning because of some lucky bounces of the ball

So they've sucked ass against mostly mediocre competition. They might be the most fraudulent team of all time.

agree, but you forgot my favorite data point. the OT game vs Army who held them to 28 lol

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