2018 CFP Rankings

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

So its

Bama
Clemson
ND
UGA
OK
OSU
scUM
UCF

-Gonna come down to a beauty contest this week when OK and OSU both try to get style point. I'd love to see them both lose... but fear that would open up things for UGA to be the only 2 loss team (assuming they lose a close one to Bama) in.

-I think UCF suffered from losing their QB, but can jump scUM if they boat race Memphis in the CC with their backup (who is pretty capable).

If Alabama, Northwestern, and Texas win I think UCF can get in.

 

[dad4aa]

If Alabama, Northwestern, and Texas win I think UCF can get in.

That’s my hope for this weekend

 

[Kingbish01]

That’s my hope for this weekend

The last thing I want to see is Bama getting UCF in the semi's....That would confirm that life just isn't fair. They could be up 50 at the start of the 4th

 

[Irish YJ]

So if everything holds serve this weekend, OU and OSU have a higher chance of getting in than ND? SMH.....anything lower than 3 is unacceptable.


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most sports folks show ND as the highest % making it. not sure who's poll that is..

ND is in. 100%. Only situation where I can see, or understand dropping to 4 is if Bama loses a very close game to UGA, like by a pt or 2. Clemson, UGA, Bama, ND. That's the only conceivable drop for ND IMO.

 

[Irish YJ]

That’s my hope for this weekend

me too. would absolutely love the chaos and all the bitching from everyone that got left out.

IMO, Bama is going to smash any #4 team named OK, OSU, or UCF. Might as well let the little guy get a shot, and an attitude adjustment.

 

[ThePiombino]

I'd love to see UCF join a bigger conference, but the SEC and ACC both have the biggest divs/confs already at 7/14 and more or less full. The only place they might "fit" in is the Big12, which actually needs to expand from 10 to catch up with anyone else. UCF, Temple, USF, Memphis, Houston, Cinci, and SMU all could make a case for jumping up. If I were the Big12(10), I'd add UCF, USF, Houston, and one of the rest (Temple/Memphis/Cinci, SMU, or even Boise St) and be sized at 7/14 like the others. The PAC could stand to pick up two as well.

AAC IMO has some very competitive teams. Their reg and bowl seasons have had a ton of success vs P5. It's not just the UCF/Auburn conversation. They are not the SEC, but they are a clear step above the other Div1 non-P5 conferences (Sunbelt, BigWest, CUSA, MAC, and MWC). And let's not forget, we play an AAC team every year, have been beaten by them (Navy) more than a couple times, and even (Tulsa).

Texas would never allow it

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[irishff1014]

I can't wait until NW beats OSU and Urban retires.

You got high hopes my friend. OSU is going to smoke Northwestern.

 

[Irish YJ]

Texas would never allow it

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UTX needs to worry more about playing football and recruiting. TAMU rising is aided big time by all things SEC (who is 7/14). If Baylor and TCU can get it going again, Texas will have a very hard time rising again. They lucked out with Leach leaving TTU, and a new coach there could even make things interesting. Big 12 at ten teams gets more irrelevant every year.

 

[Irish YJ]

You got high hopes my friend. OSU is going to smoke Northwestern.

just depends which OSU shows up. i wonder how many players believe NW is going to be a cakewalk like IU...

 

[Circa]

Patience, my friend.
One at a time, let's not get greedy.

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/xhz40U8Z40gla" width="480" height="270" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/pointtakenpbs-pbs-point-taken-kousha-xhz40U8Z40gla">via GIPHY</a></p>

 

[Circa]

So if everything holds serve this weekend, OU and OSU have a higher chance of getting in than ND? SMH.....anything lower than 3 is unacceptable.


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<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/1aN6z3oAzTIsg" width="480" height="270" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/men-job-garbage-1aN6z3oAzTIsg">via GIPHY</a></p>

 

[ulukinatme]

You guys need to quit hoping UCF or OU gets in. Neither of them is capable of hanging with Alabama. The Buckeyes are probably outmatched too (At least on Defense), but they at least have the athletes and Urban can make it a game if they're motivated like they were against Michigan. That's the best scenario for us.

 

[Irish YJ]

You guys need to quit hoping UCF or OU gets in. Neither of them is capable of hanging with Alabama. The Buckeyes are probably outmatched too (At least on Defense), but they at least have the athletes and Urban can make it a game if they're motivated like they were against Michigan. That's the best scenario for us.

Honestly I don't see anyone (OSU, OK, UCF) making any difference vs Bama. It's probably more reasonable to hope Bama players come down with a mean case of stomach flu. Anyone have any left over romaine lettuce?

 

[IrishSteelhead]

2018 CFP Rankings

You guys need to quit hoping UCF or OU gets in. Neither of them is capable of hanging with Alabama. The Buckeyes are probably outmatched too (At least on Defense), but they at least have the athletes and Urban can make it a game if they're motivated like they were against Michigan. That's the best scenario for us.

I stand by my words. OU is the only team that has a SHOT at beating Bama.

Kyler Murray could orchestrate a Johnny Football in 2012 type game, and drive Bamas defense insane.

Stopping Bama isnt the key to beating them, its being able to score on them IMO.


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[Bishop2b5]

I wish I had y'all's confidence in Bama. As a fan, I'm still nervous as hell and seeing all the flaws and exploitable weaknesses that can get us embarrassed and keep us from hoisting the big trophy. I know any of the top few teams can beat us if we have an off day. That off day scares me.

 

[greyhammer90]

I stand by my words. OU is the only team that has a SHOT at beating Bama.

Kyler Murray could orchestrate a Johnny Football in 2012 type game, and drive Bamas defense insane.

Stopping Bama isnt the key to beating them, its being able to score on them IMO.


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Agree. An elite team playing Oklahoma is like playing Russian roulette. 5/6 times that team is going to walk away fine. 1/6 times Oklahoma is going to hang 70 on them and make them look stupid. That's probably better odds than I'd give OSU or Clemson trying to "out Bama" Bama.

 

[TheRealLynch51]

So if everything holds serve this weekend, OU and OSU have a higher chance of getting in than ND? SMH.....anything lower than 3 is unacceptable.


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I saw this as well. For everyone that doesnt know, this is 538's statistical projection. However, the guy that runs it (Nate Silver), said that it's highly unlikely ND misses out on the playoff. He said his statistical model weighed things differently than what the committee will most likely decide.

 

[Circa]

I'll take UCF +14 in their bowl game which will probably be against OSU/Oklahoma/UGA/LSU or some other pumped up piece of trash like Auburn was last year.

Why wouldn't they keep up with Oklahoma? They have proven they can score and their backup kept their +30 point streak going. Why couldn't they play with OSU? B/c they don't have the 5 star recruits and big boy conference wins over Indiana or Illinois or Arkansas or some other piece of P5 trash that can't even make a bowl game?

It isn't a question of keeping up with Bama - nobody is expected to do that. Clemson is in a similar boat. The question is who gets #4, the glory of being slaughtered by Alabama in Rd1. UGA gets their shot in the SEC championship which (IMO) should be an elimination game given their otherwise unimpressive resumes. Clemson should not be in over UCF if they don't win their conference championship given their pure trash schedule and unremarkable opponent who UCF absolutely destroyed. ND is in.

At #4 you have horribly flawed OSU and Oklahoma teams who have lost a game - UCF deserves a shot over them both. Beating Auburn this year is a better win than either of them can claim and both of their losses are worse b/c well, they exist. Milton down reduces UCF's odds dramatically but does that mean the team does not deserve a shot? The only three teams fully deserving a spot are 1) SEC champ, 2) Clemson if they win, 3) ND - after every, single team is relying on the generosity of others and did not fully EARN their spot - they will have been given a spot.

JUST LIKE BAMA LAST YEAR - still don't think they deserved to get in as the #3 team in the SEC. They were gifted a spot and took advantage of it. Won't be at all surprised if they lay an egg to get two SEC teams in again - can't win it if you aren't in it. Yes I would put in UGA over OSU and Oklahoma if we are playing the SoS game - I just think conferences should be treated like an automatic filtering system.

Very True.

 

[IrishLax]

So if everything holds serve this weekend, OU and OSU have a higher chance of getting in than ND? SMH.....anything lower than 3 is unacceptable.


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This is fake news, Nate Silver even said so himself. He wrote a dumb algorithm that over-values being a conference champion. He said in real life it probably doesn’t work like this.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Our college football algorithm cutely thinks that if the playoff selection committee really values conference championships, it would consider putting in both a 12-1 tOSU and 12-1 Oklahoma ahead of 12-0 Notre Dame. I really doubt that happens IRL, though. <a href="https://t.co/gROi6Kuq10">https://t.co/gROi6Kuq10</a> <a href="https://t.co/3AUAZgRYnf">pic.twitter.com/3AUAZgRYnf</a></p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1066487788902576128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 25, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Irish YJ]

I stand by my words. OU is the only team that has a SHOT at beating Bama.

Kyler Murray could orchestrate a Johnny Football in 2012 type game, and drive Bamas defense insane.

Stopping Bama isnt the key to beating them, its being able to score on them IMO.


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I think OK would score, but not like they do in the Big12. And OK literally might never stop Bama O. Give me OSU who has the potential the play on both sides of the ball. OSU has proven they can score vs a top 5 D. OK probably hasn't played a team in the top 25 D. OSU is #2 in total O (yrds/game), and has played better Ds, even if OK is #1. The numbers just don't bare out for OK.

 

[Irishnuke]

I stand by my words. OU is the only team that has a SHOT at beating Bama.

Kyler Murray could orchestrate a Johnny Football in 2012 type game, and drive Bamas defense insane.

Stopping Bama isnt the key to beating them, its being able to score on them IMO.


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This is my mindset too. Obviously Bama is the much better all around team and obviously OU's defense is a total dumpster fire, but I think OU's offense is really the only team that can do damage against Bama. Kyler Murray, who is a bit of a douche, is pretty electric on the field and I think could give Bama problems. OU's D is definitely going to give up at least 40 points but I think their O could hang with Bama for a while.

Maybe I don't actually believe this and I'm just really hoping someone else beats Bama so we don't have to play them if we beat whoever we play.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I think OK would score, but not like they do in the Big12. And OK literally might never stop Bama O. Give me OSU who has the potential the play on both sides of the ball. OSU has proven they can score vs a top 5 D. OK probably hasn't played a team in the top 25 D. OSU is #2 in total O (yrds/game), and has played better Ds, even if OK is #1. The numbers just don't bare out for OK.

The numbers dont bare out for OU, but the ingredients do.

Murray extending busted plays for big yards with his legs, ala JFF, is really the only way I see anyone beating a disciplined Bama defense. I dont see any other QB able to withstand them for 60 minutes.


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[ulukinatme]

Honestly I don't see anyone (OSU, OK, UCF) making any difference vs Bama. It's probably more reasonable to hope Bama players come down with a mean case of stomach flu. Anyone have any left over romaine lettuce?

tOSU obviously has the talent if you believe the recruiting rankings over the last several years, they're right there with 'Bama basically. Urban has had success over Saban before, but the later has certainly gotten his goat more often. Obviously if the Buckeyes are motivated they can make it a game, more so that the other two can.

 

[Irish Insanity]

So its

Bama
Clemson
ND
UGA
OK
OSU
scUM
UCF

-Gonna come down to a beauty contest this week when OK and OSU both try to get style point. I'd love to see them both lose... but fear that would open up things for UGA to be the only 2 loss team (assuming they lose a close one to Bama) in.

-I think UCF suffered from losing their QB, but can jump scUM if they boat race Memphis in the CC with their backup (who is pretty capable).

So if UGA wins they're in. But I don't see them seeding for a repeat of a game that was just played. Which would then leave us to play Bama I assume, and a drop to #4.

 

[Circa]

Honestly I don't see anyone (OSU, OK, UCF) making any difference vs Bama. It's probably more reasonable to hope Bama players come down with a mean case of stomach flu. Anyone have any left over romaine lettuce?

I actually do. I eat It to feel better after reading.

 

[ND88]

Agree. An elite team playing Oklahoma is like playing Russian roulette. 5/6 times that team is going to walk away fine. 1/6 times Oklahoma is going to hang 70 on them and make them look stupid. That's probably better odds than I'd give OSU or Clemson trying to "out Bama" Bama.

But 6/6 times out of that 1/6, Oklahoma will lay 70 and still only win by 1 point. No italics.

 

[Bishop2b5]

So if UGA wins they're in. But I don't see them seeding for a repeat of a game that was just played. Which would then leave us to play Bama I assume, and a drop to #4.

Bama would likely go to 4 and face #1 Clemson with ND and UGA at 2 & 3.

 

[Irish YJ]

I actually do. I eat It to feel better after reading.

explains some of the gifs. are you very feverish?

So if UGA wins they're in. But I don't see them seeding for a repeat of a game that was just played. Which would then leave us to play Bama I assume, and a drop to #4.

not saying it will happy, just saying it's the only plausible way ND could drop.

tOSU obviously has the talent if you believe the recruiting rankings over the last several years, they're right there with 'Bama basically. Urban has had success over Saban before, but the later has certainly gotten his goat more often. Obviously if the Buckeyes are motivated they can make it a game, more so that the other two can.

Talent, and stats wise, it's absolutely the best match up.

The numbers dont bare out for OU, but the ingredients do.

Murray extending busted plays for big yards with his legs, ala JFF, is really the only way I see anyone beating a disciplined Bama defense. I dont see any other QB able to withstand them for 60 minutes.


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If you look at just about every stat, OSU is the best team match up with Bama of the two. OSU's advanced stats on OL are top 10, where OK's is like 50ish IIRC. Haskins is not a running QB, but he can extend plays. IMO, Bama would get a rush with 3 or 4 guys vs OK, and are plenty athletic to contain KM. OSU might have enough OL gumption to give Haskins enough time. Defensively, it's not even debatable.

 

[Circa]

Bama would likely go to 4 and face #1 Clemson with ND and UGA at 2 & 3.

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[ND88]

tOSU obviously has the talent if you believe the recruiting rankings over the last several years, they're right there with 'Bama basically. Urban has had success over Saban before, but the later has certainly gotten his goat more often. Obviously if the Buckeyes are motivated they can make it a game, more so that the other two can.

Ohio State is a better playoff team than Oklahoma, but the Boiler Up axiom states that if a far weaker opponent takes a "hot, fat steamy dump" on you during the regular season, you should be punished.