2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race

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ACamp1900

ACamp1900

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My Dear Wormwood,

Be sure that the patient remains completely fixated on politics. Arguments, political gossip, and obsessing on the faults of people they have never met serves as an excellent distraction from advancing in personal virtue, character, and the things the patient can control. Make sure to keep the patient in a constant state of angst, frustration and general disdain towards the rest of the human race in order to avoid any kind of charity or inner peace from further developing. Ensure that the patient continues to believe that the problem is “out there” in the “broken system” rather than recognizing there is a problem with himself.

Keep up the good work,

Uncle Screwtape

My Boy is just timeless...
 
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B

Bluto

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IrishBroker said:
I've heard the same things. Shame, really. I have family in Jersey that talks like that. Obscene to say the least.

However, I can also say most of those people (the ones I still have contact with) no longer think that way nor do they use those terms. A couple are still flat out racists...but most have moved on.

I don't think for one min that is the majority of Trump supporters, nor do I think America is "racist"

There are racists. But they are not the majority. Nor are they all white.
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Never used the words majority or all. I said significant. A few percentage points in the past election constitutes just that.

Now, I know all kinds of racist latinos, they mostly hate blacks. The question then becomes how much power those constituencies can exert and how much they need to be pandered too. I'm of the opinion that all things being equal based on total population alone there are a hell of a lot more white racists/bigots in this country on various places of that spectrum than there are black ones.

I think looking at racism/bigotry as having some cut off line (either you're totally color blind or your neo Nazi) is incorrect. I've met plenty of well coifed, polite racists/bigots.
 
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IrishBroker

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ACamp1900

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Bernie would have curb stomped Trump imo... for varying reasons... I think Rubio Sanders would have been interesting though if both parties could play the mulligan game....
 
Whiskeyjack

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IrishBroker said:
I think Bernie still would've lost. IMO.
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I doubt it. He was riding the same wave of populist anti-Establishment energy that swept Trump to power, but with the added benefit of stellar favorability ratings. Imagine how much bigger Trump's win would have been without all of his gaffes and baggage...

He was selling something that wasn't even possible without raising everyone's taxes, and he supported government health care at a time when the ACA was kicking the shit outta those same people.
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(1) You could argue that most of what Trump was selling during his campaign was even more unrealistic; and (2) Bernie supported single payor. The downscale Midwestern whites who handed Trump his victory voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008 and 2012. They like government safety nets.
 
RDU Irish

RDU Irish

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gkIrish said:
Everyone here is smart enough to know when someone is referring to white racists or racists in general based on the context of a post. When I said 100% of racists voted for Trump, everyone knows exactly what I'm saying.
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Yes, you are saying all white people are racists.
 
connor_in

connor_in

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So this is going on right now...

Check out the responses

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Caption with your last text. <a href="https://t.co/WclygdCnug">pic.twitter.com/WclygdCnug</a></p>— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) <a href="https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/796772543944413184">November 10, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
IrishBroker

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Whiskeyjack said:
I doubt it. He was riding the same wave of populist anti-Establishment energy that swept Trump to power, but with the added benefit of stellar favorability ratings. Imagine how much bigger Trump's win would have been without all of his gaffes and baggage...



(1) You could argue that most of what Trump was selling during his campaign was even more unrealistic; and (2) Bernie supported single payor. The downscale Midwestern whites who handed Trump his victory voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
They like government safety nets.
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No doubt Bernie had star power...but most of that was among the young. And again, I think towards the end of the primaries he had run outta free shit to promise and people started looking deeper and realizing how his ideas don't really jive with the American culture. Socialism won't work here(on his scale). I hasn't worked anywhere. People know this....


As fare as the ACA? They liked it until now...when it didn't work and their premiums have gone up 40-60%.

So I disagree.


You're right, Anyone but Trump would've slaughtered Clinton even worse. I'll admit that Trump/Sanders would've been a good one, but I'd still give the nod to Trumper based on the failed ACA and immigration.
 
connor_in

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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iEkG9seHJco" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
IrishBroker

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connor_in said:
So this is going on right now...

Check out the responses

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Caption with your last text. <a href="https://t.co/WclygdCnug">pic.twitter.com/WclygdCnug</a></p>— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) <a href="https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/796772543944413184">November 10, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Obama does not look happy. LOL


I've actually grown to like him over the last few months. Changing stations in men's restrooms, shouting down protestors....

I've always said he'd be my favorite POTUS just to watch a game with.
 
connor_in

connor_in

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Cw7S5VGVIAAe5rn.jpg:large
 
Whiskeyjack

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IrishBroker said:
No doubt Bernie had star power...but most of that was among the young.
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Bernie has consistently been rated as the most popular Senator in the entire country, not just among the young. His favorability ratings were higher than any other politician's, and his negativity ratings were the lowest.

And again, I think towards the end of the primaries he had run outta free shit to promise and people started looking deeper and realizing how his ideas don't really jive with the American culture.
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Might seem like the case within your libertarian circles, but I haven't seen any objective basis for that belief. He's still massively popular.

Socialism won't work here(on his scale). I hasn't worked anywhere. People know this....
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That's besides the point. Most of the specific stuff that Trump promised, like the border wall with Mexico and protectionist trade policies, haven't worked anywhere either. This election wasn't about policies.

As fare as the ACA? They liked it until now...when it didn't work and their premiums have gone up 40-60%.
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Who said anything about the ACA? Bernie wasn't selling the ACA. He was selling single payor, which downscale Midwestern swing voters like.
 
IrishBroker

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Whiskeyjack said:
Bernie has consistently been rated as the most popular Senator in the entire country, not just among the young. His favorability ratings were higher than any other politician's, and his negativity ratings were the lowest.



Might seem like the case within your libertarian circles, but I haven't seen any objective basis for that belief. He's still massively popular.



That's besides the point. Most of the specific stuff that Trump promised, like the border wall with Mexico and protectionist trade policies, haven't worked anywhere either. This election wasn't about policies.



Who said anything about the ACA? Bernie wasn't selling the ACA. He was selling single payor, which downscale Midwestern swing voters like.
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The ACA is pivotal and relevant. The public believes that government came in a screwed up the health industry. Now, whether that is what you believe or not, it's public perception. And for a candidate to ask the public to put their complete faith in the government after the train wreck that was the first experiment, it would've bombed.


The older vote would've come out and dominated in the face of having their taxes raised and the prospect of government being in charge of their health. Those two issues would've brought the same voters out for Trump.


Again, could be wrong, but many of you were also telling me how much of a "sure thing" Hillary was.
 
Irish YJ

Irish YJ

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goldandblue said:
All I can say is it's too bad he wasn't a ccp holder...
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The thing is, that vid will likely make its rounds on social media and get a shit ton of thumbs ups and likes from the same people that are claiming white lash, and Trump voter prejudice. Sad state of things.

And yes, poor guy had no way to defend himself. Had he had a firearm, can you imagine the headlines......
 
NDohio

NDohio

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Cackalacky said:
Absolutely 100% accurate. I have heard that from my earliest memories. Also had too numerous to count experiences where friends, family, acquaintances, co-workers, all expressed some subdued or understood racial context to what was going on. More recently since Obama, I hear it sooo much more openly.
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Not to get into the middle of this part of the discussion as I don't have a lot to add other than personal anecdotes, but I will say that when it comes to race, South Carolina is a completely different world for me. My family and I sometimes feel like we have moved to a different country. It has been pretty difficult...
 
Whiskeyjack

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IrishBroker said:
The ACA is pivotal and relevant. The public believes that government came in a screwed up the health industry. Now, whether that is what you believe or not, it's public perception. And for a candidate to ask the public to put their complete faith in the government after the train wreck that was the first experiment, it would've bombed.

The older vote would've come out and dominated in the face of having their taxes raised and the prospect of government being in charge of their health. Those two issues would've brought the same voters out for Trump.
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This touches on a brief argument that wizards and I had yesterday, but I think you're projecting your own libertarian instincts onto some huge groups of people who clearly don't share them. I'm seeing lots of Republicans getting excited along the lines of: "F*ck yeah, it's 1980 again! Morning in America! Trump is Reagan 2.0. Time to shrink government and cut taxes again!"

That's the same neoliberal bullshit the GOP has been peddling for 30+ years, and it's what Trump voters decisively voted against in this year's primary. As I've said several times, downscale white Obama voters from the Rust Belt just put Trump in the White House. He wasn't supposed to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania; but those voters have been struggling for a long time, and they're tired of being ignored by the GOP and the DNC alike. They (and the elderly, since you brought them up) really like their government benefits; for many of these people, such benefits have been the only thing keeping them afloat for many years. No, they don't like tax increases (very few do, in fact); but they like cuts to government safety nets even less.

Trump campaigned in the Rust Belt and promised to actually increase the size of government, and (more importantly) to make it work for them. Bernie was promising the same thing. To project your own skepticism of government competency onto these voters would be a fatal misreading of this election. And I'm concerned that many in the GOP will do exactly that.

Again, could be wrong, but many of you were also telling me how much of a "sure thing" Hillary was.
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I vet my sources very carefully, and there were no credible analysts projecting a Trump victory. The only ones confidently predicting he would win were shills like Hannity, Limbaugh, Coulter and Ingraham.
 
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Whiskeyjack

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<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Obama's response to <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump">@realDonaldTrump</a>'s mean tweet on <a href="https://twitter.com/JimmyKimmelLive">@JimmyKimmelLive</a> was perfect. More coming soon... <a href="https://t.co/z4LHkdgYvY">pic.twitter.com/z4LHkdgYvY</a></p>— Matt Wilstein (@TheMattWilstein) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheMattWilstein/status/790767886201593856">October 25, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
wizards8507

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Whiskeyjack said:
This touches on a brief argument that wizards and I had yesterday, but I think you're projecting your own libertarian instincts onto some huge groups of people who clearly don't share them. I'm seeing lots of Republicans getting excited along the lines of: "F*ck yeah, it's 1980 again! Morning in America! Trump is Reagan 2.0. Time to shrink government and cut taxes again!"

That's the same neoliberal bullshit the GOP has been peddling for 30+ years, and it's what Trump voters decisively voted against in this year's primary. As I've said several times, downscale white Obama voters from the Rust Belt just put Trump in the White House. He wasn't supposed to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania; but those voters have been struggling for a long time, and they're tired of being ignored by the GOP and the DNC alike. They (and the elderly, since you brought them up) really like their government benefits; for many of these people, such benefits have been the only thing keeping them afloat for many years. No, they don't like tax increases (very few do, in fact); but they like cuts to government safety nets even less.

Trump campaigned in the Rust Belt and promised to actually increase the size of government, and (more importantly) to make it work for them. Bernie was promising the same thing. To project your own skepticism of government competency onto these voters would b ae fatal misreading of this election. And I'm concerned that many in the GOP will do exactly that.
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Absolutely wrong. You need to look at raw vote totals, not percentages or the electoral college. The Trump wave is 100% a myth. Mitt Romney got more votes in 2012 than Trump got in 2016, meaning the #NeverTrump Reagan conservatives that abandoned the party are a bigger coalition than these "downscale white voters" in the Midwest that you keep talking about. Every single way in which Trump's electoral map looks impressive is utterly the product of Hillary Clinton being the worst presidential candidate of all time. I said it yesterday but it bears repeating: Trump won despite Trumpism, not because of it.
 
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