The March 8 Michigan primary was perhaps Bernie Sanders’ most important victory, as pollsters widely and wrongly predicted a considerable victory for Hillary Clinton due to her strength with black voters in cities like Detroit and Flint. Sanders’ 50-48 win was largely due to his strength with rural, white voters disenfranchised by free trade deals backed by the Clintons, like NAFTA.
Much like Indiana, Sanders prevailed with the help of 55 percent of male voters and 56 percent of white voters. 54 percent of voters who made less than $50,000 in 2015 supported Sanders, as well as 71 percent of voters identifying as independent. NAFTA hate brought Sen. Sanders over the finish line, as 56 percent of voters who said free trade was bad for job growth in Michigan picked Sanders. The Vermont senator did very well with voters who said they wanted an outsider in office, winning 84 percent of that demographic. Sanders’ strength wasn’t in inner cities, but in suburbs and rural areas, capturing 50 percent and 57 percent of voters, respectively.
Donald Trump beat all four of his competitors in the Michigan primary along the same demographic lines. Trump won 53 percent of men and 38 percent of white voters (13 points better than his closest competitor, Ted Cruz). Among the $30,000 to $50,000 income demographic, Trump demolished Cruz by 21 points. Trump also won 45 percent of voters who said free trade took away American jobs, which was 23 points higher than Cruz.
