2016 Presidential Horse Race

[GATTACA!]

Right now, aren't his favorables worse than hers? And she is still in a race for the nomination against a formitable candidate. When she is the presumptive nominee she will get the same kind of bump that caused his numbers to rise recently. I will bet that it will be a bigger bump than he got.

No. There are a bunch of new polls that have her just as unfavorable as him.

And Hillary has been accused of treason, murder, corruption and any number of other terrible things for decades. Trump has not begun to take the kind of punches she took. And she is no pushover ... she will land her share of punches on him, too. She will demonstrate how much smarter she is than him, how much more prepared she is. All of these things will push his numbers lower, not higher. When Bernie's suppurters start coming home (don't make the mistake of thinking most of them won't) her numbers will rise dramatically. We are already dealing with a very difficult map for Trump to navigate as a republican. He would have to sweep the rust belt purple states that have been fairly dependable democratic voters in national elections for multiple cycles.

I agree with most of your post. The general idea that the polls are mostly meaningless at this point. There are just too many factors and biases with voters that don't simply boil down to Trump v Hillary at this point.

However to this part i quoted i disagree. Hillary has been in a pillow fight with Bernie. Sanders has golden material and time and time again has chosen not to go after her because he wants to run a clean campaign. Trump isn't afraid to go after her on any topic. Bill's escapades on that child rapists jet are a prime example of something from her past, that supposedly we know everything about, that no one had heard about. Or at least the story was kept under wraps enough that it hadn't hit the general public. Get ready for a laundry list of that type of shit.

On the other hand the 16 other opponents and the republican establishment have been trying everything they possibly could to get Trump out of the race. I would say every single news source except for maybe Fox shows outright contempt for him. Despite all of that he still has amassed the most votes of any republican primary participant in the history of the party. I really don't know what Hillary can try and hit Trump on that hasn't already been beaten to death by his own party.

 

[kmoose]

We are already dealing with a very difficult map for Trump to navigate as a republican. He would have to sweep the rust belt purple states that have been fairly dependable democratic voters in national elections for multiple cycles.

I think you are overestimating the dependability of Democratic wins in some of those states. For instance; In the last 10 Presidential elections:

Ohio has voted Democratic 5 times, and Republican 5 times.
Michigan has voted Democrat 6 times, and Republican 4 times.
Indiana has voted Democrat once, and Republican 9 times.
Illinois has voted Democrat 6 times, and Republican 4 times.

Wisconsin and your home state, Pennsylvania, have been consistent, though: Wisconsin has voted Republican only twice in the last ten Presidential elections, and PA voted Republican 3 times in the same period.

 

[GoIrish41]

I think you are overestimating the dependability of Democratic wins in some of those states. For instance; In the last 10 Presidential elections:

Ohio has voted Democratic 5 times, and Republican 5 times.
Michigan has voted Democrat 6 times, and Republican 4 times.
Indiana has voted Democrat once, and Republican 9 times.
Illinois has voted Democrat 6 times, and Republican 4 times.

Wisconsin and your home state, Pennsylvania, have been consistent, though: Wisconsin has voted Republican only twice in the last ten Presidential elections, and PA voted Republican 3 times in the same period.

Point is that he has to sweep those states. Has that happened since Reagan was on the ticket? Not sure, but I don't think so. Also, just go back 4 or 5 elections instead of 10. I think you will find those states have leaned blue at a higher rate -- meaning recent history shows that a shift has occurred. Before that -- in the Reagan years, those states voted pretty much with the rest of the country for Republicans.

 

[GoIrish41]

No. There are a bunch of new polls that have her just as unfavorable as him.



I agree with most of your post. The general idea that the polls are mostly meaningless at this point. There are just too many factors and biases with voters that don't simply boil down to Trump v Hillary at this point.

However to this part i quoted i disagree. Hillary has been in a pillow fight with Bernie. Sanders has golden material and time and time again has chosen not to go after her because he wants to run a clean campaign. Trump isn't afraid to go after her on any topic. Bill's escapades on that child rapists jet are a prime example of something from her past, that supposedly we know everything about, that no one had heard about. Or at least the story was kept under wraps enough that it hadn't hit the general public. Get ready for a laundry list of that type of shit.

On the other hand the 16 other opponents and the republican establishment have been trying everything they possibly could to get Trump out of the race. I would say every single news source except for maybe Fox shows outright contempt for him. Despite all of that he still has amassed the most votes of any republican primary participant in the history of the party. I really don't know what Hillary can try and hit Trump on that hasn't already been beaten to death by his own party.

I agree Trump has been attacked more than Clinton during the primaries, but I'm looking over the long haul. She's got scars from worse political fights than anything Trump has seen this past year. And she's still standing. Thin Skinned Don has got a fight on his hands.

 

[pkt77242]

Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2016 Election | FiveThirtyEight

On topic about how certain states are trending blue or red.

 

[GATTACA!]

I agree Trump has been attacked more than Clinton during the primaries, but I'm looking over the long haul. She's got scars from worse political fights than anything Trump has seen this past year. And she's still standing. Thin Skinned Don is got a fight on his hands.

Right but what if she only has old ammo left?

 

[GoIrish41]

Right but what if she only has old ammo left?

Not sure I understand what you mean. Trump is an ammo factory. He will give her a steady supply during the election. Of that there is little doubt.

 

[GATTACA!]

Not sure I understand what you mean. Trump is an ammo factory. He will give her a steady supply during the election. Of that there is little doubt.

I mean I think most of the old dirt there is to find on Trump the Republicans have already used. If he continues to put his foot in his mouth then yeah there is an infinite supply.

However I think there's tons of stuff even just from the primaries that hasn't been brought up about Hillary.

 

[GoIrish41]

I mean I think most of the old dirt there is to find on Trump the Republicans have already used. If he continues to put his foot in his mouth then yeah there is an infinite supply.

However I think there's tons of stuff even just from the primaries that hasn't been brought up about Hillary.

In some ways I think the republican candidates, the party establishment and conservative media have pulled some punches on Trump. They didn't want to alienate his supporters ... and I think they were shocked at how much support he got. They had disadvantages against Trump that Hillary won't have.

And think about this. WV just held a primary and won with 77% of the vote, and there were no other candidates left in the race. Nearly a quarter of republicans in that state went to the polls specifically to vote against Trump. If that number carries over into the general across all states, that is not a good sign for the Donald. These "no voters" are potential cross overs to team blue or at least for staying home in November.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

In some ways I think the republican candidates, the party establishment and conservative media have pulled some punches on Trump. They didn't want to alienate his supporters ... and I think they were shocked at how much support he got. They had disadvantages against Trump that Hillary won't have.

They pulled all of their punches until the last couple weeks. That's when Rubio started after him, Cruz went ballistic on him, and Romney gave his speech. It was too little, too late. But it gave the Clinton campaign lots of clips of Republicans going after him hard, which could help her.

Not sure what effect that will have. But it's interesting.

 

[connor_in]

 

[Irish#1]

I feel like I should just copy and paste the same argument until August.

Do people really believe these polls mean anything this far out? What has happened since Trump has been the presumptive nominee, and Cruz and Rubio supporters have reluctantly said they'd vote for Trump? It doesn't take a genius to know that the reason his numbers have gone up is because the party has only one person to vote for now.

What do you think will happen when Sanders inevitably throws his unwavering support behind Clinton (people are insane if they think that isn't going to happen once Sanders gets more of his agenda on the Democratic platform - this morning at his rally he didn't mention Hillary once and instead talked about keeping Trump out of the White House)? Her numbers will go up as well with that bump. And then when those bumps even out, we'll see where everything stands after the dust settles. It's laughable that Trump supporters were downplaying the polls when he was losing (badly) and now I see they (not you guys) are quick to point them out now that he is predictably surging.

Not that he can't win, but those 538 guys will be quick to tell you that these polls mean very little so far out.

Just because I didn't write a four paragraph statement doesn't mean I don't understand how this works. Sure Hillary's numbers will go up with some of Bernie's supporters. Trumps numbers have went up because he has no more opposition. Who gets the undecided voters is going to depend on which candidate doesn't stink up the place more as we near election day. It will also be interesting to see Trumps numbers after the party leaders acquiesce and throw their support behind him. They have to do that, otherwise they guarantee a Clinton win and put themselves in a position that may take 10+ years to recover from.

 

[GoIrish41]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/us/politics/ad-super-pac-clinton-trump.html

Ads like this are going to be running until November.

 

[RDU Irish]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/us/politics/ad-super-pac-clinton-trump.html

Ads like this are going to be running until November.

Lots of RBF in that video. I don't think anyone disputes this cycle is going to be ugly on an epic scale.

 

[RDU Irish]

Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2016 Election | FiveThirtyEight

On topic about how certain states are trending blue or red.

The Philly comments in here are gold - lumping suburbs in with Philly proper makes it look more "normal" when Obama took some ridiculous percentages and turnouts due to the race card. On one hand I could say Hill dog isn't taking that volume and percentage - on the other I could see voter fraud making sure she gets whatever she needs out of those districts to win the state. But then I know a bunch of folks here don't believe in voter fraud so they should be the first to admit Trump's odds in PA are pretty good.

 

[wizards8507]

I'm starting to think Trump has absolutely no interest in actually being President, but he absolutely wants to win the election. A Newt Gingrich shadow regime wouldn't be the worst thing, I guess...

 

[phgreek]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/us/politics/ad-super-pac-clinton-trump.html

Ads like this are going to be running until November.

well at least they had enough class to use adult actors...

Yea, Donald will be lampooned by the likes of the New York Times...

West of Indiana (and of course east of California), that helps him when the New York Times rips him. They are viewed as complicit in the problem Donald is supposed to fix. Anything they say critical of Trump will be characterized as lefty garbage. Local papers and news casts in the midwest is where the impact is to be made against Trump IMHO.

 

[NorthDakota]

I'm starting to think Trump has absolutely no interest in actually being President, but he absolutely wants to win the election. A Newt Gingrich shadow regime wouldn't be the worst thing, I guess...

Wiz is coming around. Now we need #nevertrump LA to let bygones be bygones with the wetback comments and we will be poised to make America great again.

 

[gkIrish]

I'm starting to think Trump has absolutely no interest in actually being President, but he absolutely wants to win the election. A Newt Gingrich shadow regime wouldn't be the worst thing, I guess...

I made this point a while back. I think he just wants to win the election. I don't think he wants to live in the White House and attend state dinners and all that.

 

[Emcee77]

I made this point a while back. I think he just wants to win the election. I don't think he wants to live in the White House and attend state dinners and all that.

I agree, I really can't see him taking much interest in actually governing.

 

[GoIrish41]

well at least they had enough class to use adult actors...

Yea, Donald will be lampooned by the likes of the New York Times...

West of Indiana (and of course east of California), that helps him when the New York Times rips him. They are viewed as complicit in the problem Donald is supposed to fix. Anything they say critical of Trump will be characterized as lefty garbage. Local papers and news casts in the midwest is where the impact is to be made against Trump IMHO.

The beauty of the ad is that his is the only voice heard, repeating his own words. The article is irrelevant, really. The ad is brilliant .... it's like a perpetual motion machine that keeps feeding itself new fuel to run on. They play the ad that is 100% him using his "great words," and he complains, only exposing more of his own flaws and problems. Trump blasts 'pathetic' new ad - CNN Video

This is likely to be the most brutal, nasty campaign any of us has ever seen ... both candidates are already disliked, and they will probably both be hated even more come November. I weep for our country -- especially at the prospect that someone like Trump has a chance to be our leader.

 

[ACamp1900]

 

[RDU Irish]

The beauty of the ad is that his is the only voice heard, repeating his own words. The article is irrelevant, really. The ad is brilliant .... it's like a perpetual motion machine that keeps feeding itself new fuel to run on. They play the ad that is 100% him using his "great words," and he complains, only exposing more of his own flaws and problems. Trump blasts 'pathetic' new ad - CNN Video

This is likely to be the most brutal, nasty campaign any of us has ever seen ... both candidates are already disliked, and they will probably both be hated even more come November. I weep for our country -- especially at the prospect that someone like Trump has a chance to be our leader.

PA coal country might have a few ads on Hillary in her own words, and video. The giddy looks on her face are priceless. I imagine Trump will star in his attack ads and call her out for hiding behind special interest groups. Fair number of folks respect he does his own dirty work.

 

[GoIrish41]

This is how fascism comes to America
Robert Kagan

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...e32c58-1c47-11e6-8c7b-6931e66333e7_story.html

 

[RDU Irish]

Seems most appropriate post to have after that WAPO article. PC culture makes wild claims in response to Trumps wild anti-PC ways.

 

[Irish#1]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/us/politics/ad-super-pac-clinton-trump.html

Ads like this are going to be running until November.

"Was going to wait but has decided to accelerate the campaign". Not trying to be Mr. Obvious, but that statement tells you how much of a threat they feel Trump is to win the presidency.

 

[connor_in]

This is how fascism comes to America
Robert Kagan

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...e32c58-1c47-11e6-8c7b-6931e66333e7_story.html

Wouldn't this only be true if he bypassed Congress and legislated via the govt regulation bureaucracies, executive orders, & with a pen and a phone?

 

[RDU Irish]

Wouldn't this only be true if he bypassed Congress and legislated via the govt regulation bureaucracies, executive orders, & with a pen and a phone?

Why the italics? It's not like this has fallen to the point of the POTUS writing executive orders on bathrooms or anything.....oh wait.

 

[irishfan]

I can't be the only one who thinks the "Trump is literally Hitler" narrative pushed by both liberals and a lot of the media has only helped him.....

 

[NDinL.A.]

Wiz is coming around. Now we need #nevertrump LA to let bygones be bygones with the wetback comments and we will be poised to make America great again.

Ewwwwwwww. That will never happen lol. I look at him and I don’t see a single thing about him that makes me want him to be the leader of the free world, but to each his own.

This is brilliant. I will say that I don't view Trump's problem's as molehills at all, but that is a great cartoon otherwise.

I do find it fascinating that Trump’s supporters simply don’t care that he lies all the time. Literally makes shit up at his speeches, pulls numbers out of thin air, openly lies through his teeth, and his supporters (and now most of the Republican party) simply do not care. The media will call him out on it, they will contact his campaign for a comment (which they always decline – funny because it seems they never shut up), and then it goes away. Never in history have we seen anything like this.

Watching Trump and Hillary in this election and the insanity around it is like living in an episode of the Simpsons.