2016 Presidential Horse Race

[gkIrish]

What an amazing speech today by Donald Trump. So eloquent, true, and inspiring.

Italics?

I'm at work so didn't listen to it but what points did he make if you are being serious?

 

[GoIrish41]

Yeah, I don't get it. I don't get it from an ideological perspective or from a strategic perspective. I have to imagine Rubio was his first choice, but I'm guessing he said no.

Making the same mistake as McCain did -- pick a woman -- any woman -- to counter Hillary and demonstrate you are not a footsoldier in the "war on women." Problem is that Fiorina is almost as off-putting, preachy and unlikable as Cruz. She provides nothing positive to the ticket, just more negatives. I mean, the GOP voters already soundly rejected her candidacy so its not like there was anyone clamoring for her to re-emerge. And most democrats can't stand her, so she isn't going to help in the general. I'm with you. I don't get it.

 

[wizards8507]

Italics?

I'm at work so didn't listen to it but what points did he make if you are being serious?

It was a scripted foreign policy speech designed to walk back Trump's debate comments about starting from a point of neutrality between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

 

[GoIrish41]

Italics?

I'm at work so didn't listen to it but what points did he make if you are being serious?

This article contains a ton of tweets that were made in real time during the speech.

Donald Trump Foreign Policy Speech: Highlights - The New York Times

 

[irishfan]

Italics?

I'm at work so didn't listen to it but what points did he make if you are being serious?

It was essentially a more professional-sounding speech that just centered around a lot of his basic themes:

I watched a portion of it. From what I understand, he mainly covered:

1) America first
2) Wants to build up military but cut down wasteful spending by not intervening everywhere
3) Re-iterating how we don't get much out from our allies. Everyone expects us to have our back if sh!t goes down, but we don't get anything out of it from them.
4) Said we're not respected around the world anymore and wants to have a legitimiate foreign strategy (really crapped on Clinton/Obama)

At this point, he's running clearly as a full-blown nationalist. He's never going to offer great specifics, but insults and repeating the same few ideas has gotten him this far. There's a lot to attack Hillary on and despite being the safer choice, she really isn't one for huge specifics either. It's going to be such an entertaining race until one of them actually wins.

 

[tussin]

Do any of you disagree with the notion that Hillary is going to trounce Trump in November?

 

[NDinL.A.]

What an amazing speech today by Donald Trump. So eloquent, true, and inspiring.

Ho.Ly.Crap. Inspiring?

Heard the speech and laughed at the irony/BS throughout (especially because just yesterday he was ripping candidates who use teleprompters). He's trying to undo all the crap he's already done, while simultaneously doubling-down on all the crazy shit he's already done. It's fascinating/insane to watch. Dude is so far out there, and is such an egomaniac (must have referred to himself in the 3rd person 7-8 times last night in his speech, while also bragging about how smart he is and how he went to the best schools growing up), that's it's like we are in some experiment to see what would happen if something like Trump ran for president.

 

[wizards8507]

Do any of you disagree with the notion that Hillary is going to trounce Trump in November?

I think she'll trounce him in the popular vote, but we could see some weird things in the swing states.

 

[GATTACA!]

Do any of you disagree with the notion that Hillary is going to trounce Trump in November?

I do. I think people underestimate how badly conservatives hate Hillary. There is also a treasure trove of dirt that Trump can throw at Hillary. I don't think he wins, but I don't think he loses in a blowout.

 

[GoIrish41]

I do. I think people underestimate how badly conservatives hate Hillary. There is also a treasure trove of dirt that Trump can throw at Hillary. I don't think he wins, but I don't think he loses in a blowout.

I'm not sure you are considering how much conservatives hate Trump. lol Nobody on Team Blue is starting an #AnyonebutHillary group. About 25-50% of his own party won't vote for him.

Charles Koch speculated that Hillary could be a better candidate than Trump. Like 70 percent of women polled recently that they would not vote for Trump. Hispanic voters? He lost them three minutes into his announcement that he was running for the nomination. Any dirt he has to sling at Hillary has already been slung. And he has given her a lot to toss back at him.

He's going to get crushed in the general -- especially if Bernie's supporters get on board with Hillary.

 

[IrishLax]

I asked this before... does Trump lead Hillary in ANY state in head-to-head polling? Sorry, if already answered.

 

[NorthDakota]

I asked this before... does Trump lead Hillary in ANY state in head-to-head polling? Sorry, if already answered.

I'd bet all the vBucks that he leads North Dakota.

 

[irishfan]

Do any of you disagree with the notion that Hillary is going to trounce Trump in November?

I think Trump wins. His unfavorable numbers are bad, but not much worse than her's. He has so much to attack her on and the more people see/hear Hillary, the less they trust her. To me, there is a clear difference between "Trump sounds like he's bullshitting this answer" and "Hillary sounds like she's duping me." I get that vibe from them with about half of what they say and I honestly prefer Trump's tone over her's. She's saying whatever 51% of the room wants to hear. He's saying what he honestly thinks is best for the country whether people agree or not, or whether he's being wildly inappropriate or not.

His speech today wasn't great, but the main points were pretty good. He's going purely as a nationalist, and I honestly think some Bernie supporters are going to end up being in more in line with Trump's platforms than with Hillary's. Van Jones on CNN last night even said Trump can win if he can sell his message on jobs to 3/20 African Americans. And that message is: Hillary screwed them over with NAFTA, illegal immigrants are taking leftover jobs, and Trump is the only one running who will actually do something about it. I think unions are going to go Trump over Hillary.

Finally, I don't know what message Hillary is sending in her campaign. She's running on name alone and not much else. She isn't relatable at all. Trump isn't either, but at least he doesn't pretend to be. I just think too many people are going to see through Hillary's BS in the end and will settle for Trump since a majority of his nationalist messages (that he has no specifics for) are things that resonate with the average person.

*This is also dependent on the #NeverTrump movement by GOP voters ending. I refuse to believe that any real Republican/conservative won't vote for Hillary when it comes down to it, even if that seems horrible now. Trump will when them over. Either with the consistent anti-Hillary attacks or the RNC rallying around him, he will eventually win them over.

 

[irishfan]

I asked this before... does Trump lead Hillary in ANY state in head-to-head polling? Sorry, if already answered.

Clinton leads Trump by just 3 points in new poll | TheHill

I would guess that he is. This is looking like an outlier right now, but I have a hard time believing that any election won't just come down to the typical swing states.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I asked this before... does Trump lead Hillary in ANY state in head-to-head polling? Sorry, if already answered.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election 2016 Presidential Polls

None that I could find, but they're jumbled up a bit.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Clinton leads Trump by just 3 points in new poll | TheHill

I would guess that he is. This is looking like an outlier right now, but I have a hard time believing that any election won't just come down to the typical swing states.

As you said, it's an outlier. She leads him by quite a bit more when you aggregate multiple recent polls.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump: Election Match-Up Polls | Heavy.com

Her negative margins are also significantly lower than his. She has an average margin of -14 (40% favorable, 54% unfavorable). His is closer to -35 (29% favorable, 64% unfavorable).

 

[drayer54]

I think equally compelling is whether hating Hillary is enough to get the #NeverTrump Republicans out to vote.

I'm in that crowd and I'll probably end up voting for Trump. I'll probably get drunk and sloppily fill in the box on an absentee ballot that smells of desperation and lost hope then promptly take two cold showers while I sob for my country. That is how much I can't stand Hillary.

 

[NDinL.A.]

I think Trump wins. His unfavorable numbers are bad, but not much worse than her's. He has so much to attack her on and the more people see/hear Hillary, the less they trust her. To me, there is a clear difference between "Trump sounds like he's bullshitting this answer" and "Hillary sounds like she's duping me." I get that vibe from them with about half of what they say and I honestly prefer Trump's tone over her's. She's saying whatever 51% of the room wants to hear. He's saying what he honestly thinks is best for the country whether people agree or not, or whether he's being wildly inappropriate or not.

His speech today wasn't great, but the main points were pretty good. He's going purely as a nationalist, and I honestly think some Bernie supporters are going to end up being in more in line with Trump's platforms than with Hillary's. Van Jones on CNN last night even said Trump can win if he can sell his message on jobs to 3/20 African Americans. And that message is: Hillary screwed them over with NAFTA, illegal immigrants are taking leftover jobs, and Trump is the only one running who will actually do something about it. I think unions are going to go Trump over Hillary.

Finally, I don't know what message Hillary is sending in her campaign. She's running on name alone and not much else. She isn't relatable at all. Trump isn't either, but at least he doesn't pretend to be. I just think too many people are going to see through Hillary's BS in the end and will settle for Trump since a majority of his nationalist messages (that he has no specifics for) are things that resonate with the average person.

*This is also dependent on the #NeverTrump movement by GOP voters ending. I refuse to believe that any real Republican/conservative won't vote for Hillary when it comes down to it, even if that seems horrible now. Trump will when them over. Either with the consistent anti-Hillary attacks or the RNC rallying around him, he will eventually win them over.

You hate Hillary, so you are missing what does resonate with people. That’s fine, as I was never a fan either. But I’ve done digging (as Trump is such a disaster I need to find someone else to vote for) and her platform points are WAY more refined and specific than Trump. It’s not even close. And he uses the “I’m flexible” excuse for why he can’t be specific, which is complete BS and a cover for his alarming lack-of knowledge on most foreign policies.

Trump can slam Hillary, no doubt. But she has a TON to slam as well, and Trump keeps openly ripping people that he will need to win this election – women, and Hispanics. He has completely lost the Hispanic vote – that is done (which is funny because in 2012 he said that Romney lost because “he was too mean-spirited to Latinos”). And he’s getting crushed with women as well, and his stupid comments last night didn’t help at all.

You haven’t been paying attention to Trump if you don’t think he panders to a crowd. He says what he thinks, and then when it backfires, he changes his mind and says what people want to hear. Does it all the time (see: abortion, worker Visas, assault weapons, Iraq, Syrian refugees, etc etc etc).

As for you refusing to believe that #nevertrump Republicans won’t vote for him, well, you’re misinformed here. I for one won’t vote for him, and I know several conservatives that will refuse to vote for him (not all, of course). They’re either going 3rd party (which hurts Trump as well) or even going to Hillary. Anyone but Trump. It’s absolutely real. I was a Rubio supporter, and Rubio supporters I know HATE Trump. I would imagine Cruz supporters are the same. This is not the normal “hate” that you see with most primary campaigns. This hate is deeper, because Trump has made it so personal. Contrary to the beliefs of most liberals, not all conservatives are filled with hate/racism for our fellow man. And because Trump is so consumed with hate, racism, and sexism, I can’t/won’t vote for him. And I’m not alone. Shit, my father is the most conservative man I know (like, toooooo far right), he ABORES Hillary, and yet he won’t vote for Trump. He’s going 3rd party, even though that means he’s throwing his vote away. Trump is too much of an embarrassment for his party for him.

I don’t think Hillary slaughters him necessarily, but Trump has pissed off too many groups of people, on a level never seen before, that I do think she wins comfortably, especially when Sanders endorses her.

 

[irishfan]

You hate Hillary, so you are missing what does resonate with people. That’s fine, as I was never a fan either. But I’ve done digging (as Trump is such a disaster I need to find someone else to vote for) and her platform points are WAY more refined and specific than Trump. It’s not even close. And he uses the “I’m flexible” excuse for why he can’t be specific, which is complete BS and a cover for his alarming lack-of knowledge on most foreign policies.

Trump can slam Hillary, no doubt. But she has a TON to slam as well, and Trump keeps openly ripping people that he will need to win this election – women, and Hispanics. He has completely lost the Hispanic vote – that is done (which is funny because in 2012 he said that Romney lost because “he was too mean-spirited to Latinos”). And he’s getting crushed with women as well, and his stupid comments last night didn’t help at all.

You haven’t been paying attention to Trump if you don’t think he panders to a crowd. He says what he thinks, and then when it backfires, he changes his mind and says what people want to hear. Does it all the time (see: abortion, worker Visas, assault weapons, Iraq, Syrian refugees, etc etc etc).

As for you refusing to believe that #nevertrump Republicans won’t vote for him, well, you’re misinformed here. I for one won’t vote for him, and I know several conservatives that will refuse to vote for him (not all, of course). They’re either going 3rd party (which hurts Trump as well) or even going to Hillary. Anyone but Trump. It’s absolutely real. I was a Rubio supporter, and Rubio supporters I know HATE Trump. I would imagine Cruz supporters are the same. This is not the normal “hate” that you see with most primary campaigns. This hate is deeper, because Trump has made it so personal. Contrary to the beliefs of most liberals, not all conservatives are filled with hate/racism for our fellow man. And because Trump is so consumed with hate, racism, and sexism, I can’t/won’t vote for him. And I’m not alone. Shit, my father is the most conservative man I know (like, toooooo far right), he ABORES Hillary, and yet he won’t vote for Trump. He’s going 3rd party, even though that means he’s throwing his vote away. Trump is too much of an embarrassment for his party for him.

I don’t think Hillary slaughters him necessarily, but Trump has pissed off too many groups of people, on a level never seen before, that I do think she wins comfortably, especially when Sanders endorses her.

I get all of this and what you are saying makes more sense than what I am saying. My reasoning is much more of a gut feel than anything. I wasn't gung-ho on any Republican running, so I don't have that same animosity that I'm sure Cruz/Rubio supporters have. I still think a majority go Trump over Hillary when push comes to shove, but that might very well be incorrect.

And I think Trump panders for sure. He was pandering to the far-right when he first launched his campaign. And still is pandering on abortion a bit. But most of his main platforms he is running on seem to be pro-nationalist over going for one demographic. At least that's how I view him. I just see more pandering with Hillary.

Either way, it's going to be quite interesting to see what happens. I am very curious what happens with the Sanders supporters because she hasn't treated them very well and that party is fairly fractured as well.

 

[GATTACA!]

I'm in that crowd and I'll probably end up voting for Trump. I'll probably get drunk and sloppily fill in the box on an absentee ballot that smells of desperation and lost hope then promptly take two cold showers while I sob for my country. That is how much I can't stand Hillary.

 

[wizards8507]

I get all of this and what you are saying makes more sense than what I am saying. My reasoning is much more of a gut feel than anything. I wasn't gung-ho on any Republican running, so I don't have that same animosity that I'm sure Cruz/Rubio supporters have. I still think a majority go Trump over Hillary when push comes to shove, but that might very well be incorrect.

And I think Trump panders for sure. He was pandering to the far-right when he first launched his campaign. And still is pandering on abortion a bit. But most of his main platforms he is running on seem to be pro-nationalist over going for one demographic. At least that's how I view him. I just see more pandering with Hillary.

Either way, it's going to be quite interesting to see what happens.

I think that's the scariest thing about Trump's rise. It has illustrated that the Republican base is not made up of intellectual or even marginally principled conservatives. Far too many GOP voters have been swayed by this nationalist / populist / agrarian abomination. Everything people have said for eight years about wanting smaller government is buillshit. Republican voters don't want smaller government, they just want to be in control of the leviathan.

The sick irony is that this is the same problem small-r republicans have had with the GOP since the Bush administration. The establishment and the Trumpists are both all in for big government, which has triangulated the party. Anyone who is anti-Trump is accused of being "establishment" and anyone who is anti-establishment is accused of being a Trumpist, but the Trumpists and the establishment are two sides of the same diseased coin.

 

[phgreek]

I think she'll trounce him in the popular vote, but we could see some weird things in the swing states.

Agree...short of some revelation that she kicked a puppy, its hers. I hate the Clintons. They represent everything that is wrong with DC. But I watched her and Sanders debate...they are playing chess. I think Kasich would destroy Hill on substance. I think Cruz would beat Hill on substance...but I don't think Trump could win any debate, in any format against any of those remaining from either party.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I think that's the scariest thing about Trump's rise. It has illustrated that the Republican base is not made up of intellectual or even marginally principled conservatives. Far too many GOP voters have been swayed by this nationalist / populist / agrarian abomination. Everything people have said for eight years about wanting smaller government is buillshit. Republican voters don't want smaller government, they just want to be in control of the leviathan.

The sick irony is that this is the same problem small-r republicans have had with the GOP since the Bush administration. The establishment and the Trumpists are both all in for big government, which has triangulated the party. Anyone who is anti-Trump is accused of being "establishment" and anyone who is anti-establishment is accused of being a Trumpist, but the Trumpists and the establishment are two sides of the same diseased coin.

An effective GOP would have co-opted the best parts of those ideologies, thereby stealing Trump's energy and riding it to a resounding victory in November. The GOP simply sneered instead, and continues to insult a vital portion of its electorate as too stupid to understand the superiority of reheated Reaganism.

Your post above neatly encapsulates why the party, as it currently exists, is not worth saving. It richly deserves the whirlwind it's about to reap.

 

[tussin]

I honestly have no idea what I'm going to do --- I'm currently in the #NeverTrump camp, but I hate Hillary. I'm perfectly fine with voting for Gary Johnson, but that probably helps the Dems.

"Best case" scenario for my conscience is that Trump starts beating Hillary in the polls and I can safely vote for Gary and not feel like it's a proxy vote for Hillary.

EDIT: Reading this back it's comical how fucked we are in this election.

 

[Legacy]

Fund-raising so far for 2016 Presidential candidates

Outside money plus committee money
Clinton - $256 million
Sanders - $182 million
J. Bush - $154 million
Cruz - $141 million
Trump - $50 million

Johnson $278,000


Amount raised so far by candidates: $720 million
Amount raised so far by super PACs supporting them: $446 million

Total - $1 billion and $166 million

 

[Legacy]

Icahn’s political campaign could boost value of his Apple holdings

The plan of Carl Icahn to spend $150 million in campaign money touches on the hottest debate in corporate taxation — and it’s also one that could make the financier plenty of money as well.
Icahn’s preferred method of tackling inversions is corporate tax reform. He says that inversions can be fought with a one-time repatriation tax of 5% to 10%, which would encourage companies to bring the $2.2 trillion they have deposited abroad back to the U.S. Icahn said he would pair this with infrastructure spending on highways, a plan similar to one proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin Republican who leads the House Ways and Means Committee.

Funnily enough, Icahn happens to own a big stake in one company that would benefit greatly from such a move — Apple.

Icahn said last month he owned “55 million shares or something” in Apple. That means he would need less than $3 per share in appreciation in Apple for his Super PAC spending plan to pay for itself.

 

[wizards8507]

An effective GOP would have co-opted the best parts of those ideologies, thereby stealing Trump's energy and riding it to a resounding victory in November. The GOP simply sneered instead, and continues to insult a vital portion of its electorate as too stupid to understand the superiority of reheated Reaganism.

Your post above neatly encapsulates why the party, as it currently exists, is not worth saving. It richly deserves the whirlwind it's about to reap.

Nationalism is manifesting as xenophobia and racism. Populism is manifesting as tyranny of the majority. Agrarianism is manifesting as ethanol subsidies and Big Farming cartels.

I'm okay losing if the alternative is winning like THAT.

Trump is fighting the establishment and liberal Democrats by convincing people that establishment and liberal Democrat policies are what we need to Make America Great Again (TM). He's the same shit sandwich we've been fed for years, only served on a shiny platter and marketed as new and different.

How was the GOP supposed to adopt any part of that platform without bringing about the same destruction that a Trump presidency would bring? There's no point in winning if you implement the same policies that your vanquished opponent would have implemented.

 

[GATTACA!]

 

[wizards8507]

John Boehner: Ted Cruz is 'Lucifer in the flesh' - POLITICO

But Trump is the "anti-establishment" choice. Riiight.

 

[connor_in]

24% Opt Out of a Clinton-Trump Race - Rasmussen Reports™