2015 Pre-Season Coaches Poll (ND #11)

[Ndaccountant]

I agree that's how voters seem to use them, but I don't think that's how they should be used for the reason you outline below.


Sure. But the media insists on putting these polls out, so here we are. As crappy a standard as last year's performance is, I still think it's a stronger standard than whatever convoluted machinations voters come up with to project the upcoming season.


Yes.

If you had to put a poll out, what would your top 25 look like?

 

[wizards8507]

If you had to put a poll out, what would your top 25 look like?

I'd take last year's post-bowl poll including the "others receiving votes" and take out every FCS team.

Two important notes about "my" poll are that 1) it's not any indication of how I think the season will play out and 2) I wouldn't use prior weeks' polls as my starting point when conducting the subsequent weeks' poll. Each week would be an honest evaluation about who I believe the best teams in the country are. I wouldn't put any weight into so-and-so jumps so-and-so compared to prior week, because that method presupposes that the prior week's poll was accurate.

 

[koonja]

I'd take last year's post-bowl poll including the "others receiving votes" and take out every FCS team.

Two important notes about "my" poll are that 1) it's not any indication of how I think the season will play out and 2) I wouldn't use prior weeks' polls as my starting point when conducting the subsequent weeks' poll. Each week would be an honest evaluation about who I believe the best teams in the country are. I wouldn't put any weight into so-and-so jumps so-and-so compared to prior week, because that method presupposes that the prior week's poll was accurate.

The only part of your poll that I think makes sense for CFB is #2. If a team finished 10th after a bowl win, but loses 16 starters, you think they should be ahead of ND? In CFB it completely matters how many experienced/talented players you have coming back.

Side note - With Golson gone and Jarron now out, is ND returning the most experience and/or number of starters from last year? That has to be a known stat.

 

[wizards8507]

In CFB it completely matters how many experienced/talented players you have coming back.

I agree that it matters, but there's absolutely no way to measure it until games are actually played. A team that returns all sorts of starters such that it's now a world-beater will have no problem starting ranked low because they'll go out and pound everyone and rise quickly in the polls.

Probably a bad analogy, but let's say you have a #1 ranked fighter and you start getting reports that he's gotten pudgy and out of shape. That's all well and good. It might mean he's not as good a fighter. But you don't strip him of his belt until he actually goes out and loses.

 

[T Town Tommy]

For me, I don't get too worked up over preseason polls. As far as the playoff and ND, I see it like this. The Irish have to finish at least 11-1 and hope two of the P5 conference champs have at least two losses. The only real question then becomes this: Can the Irish finish 11-1 and does two P5 champs have 2 losses? I think the latter is very likely to happen. It's the first part that is the question mark. Notre Dame controls it's own destiny at this point, regardless of where they are rated in any preseason poll.

 

[IrishLion]

For me, I don't get too worked up over preseason polls. As far as the playoff and ND, I see it like this. The Irish have to finish at least 11-1 and hope two of the P5 conference champs have at least two losses. The only real question then becomes this: Can the Irish finish 11-1 and does two P5 champs have 2 losses? I think the latter is very likely to happen. It's the first part that is the question mark. Notre Dame controls it's own destiny at this point, regardless of where they are rated in any preseason poll.

I agree with you, but another angle I would be curious about:

ND beats Clemson and USC, but drops one to Georgia Tech, finishes 11-1.

USC and Clemson both finish 12-1 conference champions, in addition to an undefeated Ohio State and Baylor.

Who gets left out?

 

[GrangerIrish24]

I agree with you, but another angle I would be curious about:

ND beats Clemson and USC, but drops one to Georgia Tech, finishes 11-1.

USC and Clemson both finish 12-1 conference champions, in addition to an undefeated Ohio State and Baylor.

Who gets left out?

whoever would make the bowl games the least amount of money

 

[wizards8507]

For me, I don't get too worked up over preseason polls. As far as the playoff and ND, I see it like this. The Irish have to finish at least 11-1 and hope two of the P5 conference champs have at least two losses. The only real question then becomes this: Can the Irish finish 11-1 and does two P5 champs have 2 losses? I think the latter is very likely to happen. It's the first part that is the question mark. Notre Dame controls it's own destiny at this point, regardless of where they are rated in any preseason poll.

I really don't think that's necessary. Let's take Florida State as an example. If Florida State wins the ACC with one loss, they'll be 12-1 with wins over Texas State and Chattanooga. 12-1 with wins over Texas State and Chattanooga isn't 12-1, it's 10-1, and I think the committee will see it that way. I'm not saying 11-1 Notre Dame is automatic over a 12-1 conference champion, but I don't think it's an absolute necessity that those champions have two losses for ND to even be considered.

 

[koonja]

I agree with you, but another angle I would be curious about:

ND beats Clemson and USC, but drops one to Georgia Tech, finishes 11-1.

USC and Clemson both finish 12-1 conference champions, in addition to an undefeated Ohio State and Baylor.

Who gets left out?

Committee has said head to head matters, and we saw that in how they ranked Baylor vs TCU. So assuming none of the victories were lop sided, I think we'd get in in this scenario.

 

[wizards8507]

I agree with you, but another angle I would be curious about:

ND beats Clemson and USC, but drops one to Georgia Tech, finishes 11-1.

USC and Clemson both finish 12-1 conference champions, in addition to an undefeated Ohio State and Baylor.

Who gets left out?

I think Clemson gets left out and learns a valuable lesson about opening your season against Wofford and Appalachian State.

 

[IrishLion]

I think Clemson gets left out and learns a valuable lesson about opening your season against Wofford and Appalachian State.

And I would hope you're right.

But I fear the committee would eventually decide, "yeah ND beat Clemson, and yeah Clemson had two glorified byes compared to ND's one... but Clemson won a conference championship game! And look how that turned out for Ohio State last year!"

 

[wizards8507]

And I would hope you're right.

But I fear the committee would eventually decide, "yeah ND beat Clemson, and yeah Clemson had two glorified byes compared to ND's one... but Clemson won a conference championship game! And look how that turned out for Ohio State last year!"

FCS is a whole 'nother level of "glorified bye" than UMASS.

Also, I don't think you can go by last year because every team that had any legitimate claim to be in the playoff had some cupcakes in their out-of-conference, so it wasn't a differentiator. I really do think strength of schedule is going to matter, which is why you see things like Alabama and USC opening 2016 against one another next year.

 

[Legacy]

Time for a Pick Six. Does IE have that capability?

 

[ND NYC]

I agree with you, but another angle I would be curious about:

ND beats Clemson and USC, but drops one to Georgia Tech, finishes 11-1.

USC and Clemson both finish 12-1 conference champions, in addition to an undefeated Ohio State and Baylor.

Who gets left out?

in above scenario, you are assuming a 2 loss SEC champ correct?

 

[T Town Tommy]

I really don't think that's necessary. Let's take Florida State as an example. If Florida State wins the ACC with one loss, they'll be 12-1 with wins over Texas State and Chattanooga. 12-1 with wins over Texas State and Chattanooga isn't 12-1, it's 10-1, and I think the committee will see it that way. I'm not saying 11-1 Notre Dame is automatic over a 12-1 conference champion, but I don't think it's an absolute necessity that those champions have two losses for ND to even be considered.

Don't necessarily disagree with the examples provided. But I do feel that ND is at a disadvantage in any scenario where they have the same number of losses as a P5 conference champ. ND could rise above it if their one loss scenario is from a better team than a P5 champs is. Like losing to P5 champ Clemson or USC and say TCU loses to an unranked K State, etc. I am sure we will play a thousand scenarios throughout the year but the best one is simply winning out. I think we all would take that scenario.

 

[Legacy]

Interesting Notes on the Preseason AP Poll (from RollBamaRoll)

 

[T Town Tommy]

Interesting Notes on the Preseason AP Poll (from RollBamaRoll)

Just proves to us what we already know. Preseason polls are pretty useless. Nothing wrong with "projecting" teams but in the end they are meaningless.

 

[ACamp1900]

Who is Jon Wilner?? I mean I love ND fiercely but for real Jon??

 

[T Town Tommy]

Who is Jon Wilner?? I mean I love ND fiercely but for real Jon??

He may be the smartest guy in the room come December. Otherwise, from San Jose.

 

[ACamp1900]

He may be the smartest guy in the room come December. Otherwise, from San Jose.

I surely hope he is... but I don't see how a #2 ranking is justified, the AP works as 'where you think they should start' or 'where you think they are RIGHT NOW'... Not where you think they will finish... correct??

 

[koonja]

*Wrong thread.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I surely hope he is... but I don't see how a #2 ranking is justified, the AP works as 'where you think they should start' or 'where you think they are RIGHT NOW'... Not where you think they will finish... correct??

Yeah... that's my take on how the poll works but I am not an expert on that. For the record, I think both Bama and Auburn are too high as well. Guess we will see.

 

[Fbolt]

In my poll the Irish are always #1.

 

[stlnd01]

I surely hope he is... but I don't see how a #2 ranking is justified, the AP works as 'where you think they should start' or 'where you think they are RIGHT NOW'... Not where you think they will finish... correct??

I think it really depends on the voter. Especially in the preseason polls. You'll hear people say "I think they're a really good team. Maye top ten talent. But that schedule's a killer and they'll lose three games, So... No. 17!"

Works the other way, too. I mean, really, does anyone actually believe TCU's the second best team in the country? And Baylor 4th? Or do they have a good resumes and soft schedules?

And unfortunately the preseason polls do matter - even in this post-BCS world - because they set perception. Especially true for teams that win close games, or that don't have a lot of big name opponents. If they rise it's not until late when the big names start falling.

But for us, 11's fine. Close enough to the top that we won't be shut out if we take care of business.

 

[Legacy]

I think it really depends on the voter. Especially in the preseason polls. You'll hear people say "I think they're a really good team. Maye top ten talent. But that schedule's a killer and they'll lose three games, So... No. 17!"

Works the other way, too. I mean, really, does anyone actually believe TCU's the second best team in the country? And Baylor 4th? Or do they have a good resumes and soft schedules?

And unfortunately the preseason polls do matter - even in this post-BCS world - because they set perception. Especially true for teams that win close games, or that don't have a lot of big name opponents. If they rise it's not until late when the big names start falling.

But for us, 11's fine. Close enough to the top that we won't be shut out if we take care of business.

Excellent points. I'd rather wait until after the fifth games to come out with a poll. That eliminates most of the cupcake games. You have a better feel for the teams. I'd prefer a top fifteen. How hard is it? Only approximately half the FBS teams - thirty-three - has a real chance to finish in the top twenty-five.

These don't say they are predictive, but underneath they try to be. How successful were the composite voters in the final AP poll?

Last year TCU and Ga Tech were unranked, finishing third and eighth. Oklahoma was in the top five, finishing unranked. South Carolina was #9. LSU at #13. Both finished unranked.

But four of the top five teams went to the CFB. Twelve of the top fifteen preseason finished in the top fifteen. Four of the five teams in 16-20 finished in the top twenty-five.

Prescient, predictive or perception, preseason polls matter - too much.

 

[Crazy Balki]

The way I see it, an 11-1 ND team would automatically finish ahead of an 11-1 Big XII champ. Stronger schedule and no extra games. Then It would come down to the other 4 power conferences. Odds are the SEC will get 1 team in and Ohio State will be undefeated, that leaves 2 spots left for the Pac-12, ACC and Notre Dame. I really don't see USC winning the Pac-12 given the recent release of their total lack of discipline and their dumbass head coach. Talent or not, you need more than that to win games. ND has it, USC is looking like it does not. Clemson on the other hand could very well end up winning the ACC, and ND's playoff hopes would hinge on them beating Clemson in that case. If Clemson finishes 12-1 and ND 11-1, but ND gets the head-2-head, ND goes in. Same with USC in that regard.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Comments from SDS on ND projection at first playoff poll.

Preseason: Projecting the first College Football Playoff poll

Looking at the preseason AP Top 25, the team outside of the SEC with the toughest first-half schedule is Notre Dame, ranked 11th to start the season. the Irish take on Texas, Georgia Tech, Clemson and USC all before their bye week on Oct. 24. If Brian Kelly’s team survives that stretch, they’ll be somewhere inside the Top 3 of the first CFP rankings in November.

 

[BGIF]

Seems some ND fans are unhappy with ND's preseason #11 ranking as we have a new QB. Game day did a segment on newbie QBs, New Guy Under Center, 9 of the Top 25 teams have newbies. ND seems to have a lot of company.

ND actually has two, one in South Bend and one in Tallahassee. For all the laments last year, Golson is once QB for a Top 10 team.

New QBs
9 UGA
10 FSU
11 ND
13 UCLA
14 LSU
15 ASU
17 MISS
19 OU
23 BSU

 

[stlnd01]

Comments from SDS on ND projection at first playoff poll.

Preseason: Projecting the first College Football Playoff poll

That would seem to be a safe bet. If we survive that stretch undefeated.
The trouble is, if we lose one, we probably play just one team in the back half of the season that's worth a damn (and Stanford could well be out of the mix by Thanksgiving). We'll need to be routing the likes Pitt and BC - not squeaking by in usual ugly fashion - to get much notice amid all those other marquee games.
Unlike the old polls, I don't think you get as many points for mere survival in the CFP system.

 

[BGIF]

That would seem to be a safe bet. If we survive that stretch undefeated.
The trouble is, if we lose one, we probably play just one team in the back half of the season that's worth a damn (and Stanford could well be out of the mix by Thanksgiving). We'll need to be routing the likes Pitt and BC - not squeaking by in usual ugly fashion - to get much notice amid all those other marquee games.
Unlike the old polls, I don't think you get as many points for mere survival in the CFP system.

"Unlike the old polls" when teams still had the first team in with a 70 nothing lead and called time out on a First and Goal so they could get the 11th TD?

It's still a matter of survival and impressing the voters.