2015 Bye Week Reassessment

[Cackalacky]

So the Irish enter the bye week 6-1. I initially believed that we would have two losses at this point coming from either USC, Navy, GT, and Clemson because of scheduling and injuries. I also predicted an additional loss because of losing four starters after week two.


That said, I am ecstatic that we are where we are. I do love this team. And they show remarkable determination which is why that damn game in Clemson stings so much. This team is a two point conversion away and a 1000-year rain event away from being undefeated, but also though, far from perfect.

My revised prediction is we lose one more game either to Pitt or Stanford and go 10-2.

 

[drayer54]

I'm nervous about Stanford, because they look tough and that RB can move.

However, a tough Stanford team is a gift. If they look like a PAC champ and contender... and ND beats them as a 1 loss team....

Boooyah!

 

[irishff1014]

I agree I said 9-3. The only thing we need to do is improve the defense. If the defense can improve at all I think we really could run the table. Turns could improve a little but it doesn't seem as bad as it normally does. I believe some changes on the defense could help starting with Schmidt being on the sideline.

I will take heat for this but if we lose to temple coaches need to lose their jobs.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Ten wins or bust.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[CanadalovesND]

Easily should be headed to Palo Alto at 10-1..

Pitt will probably be a close game, and the Temple and BC games might be close in first half before ND pulls away.

 

[ACamp1900]

That same trick play should not work against this defense again... And it will be run against us at least a couple more times.... In terms of expectations? 9 wins should be the floor, go from there...

 

[NDdomer2]

We've got the bodies to play with anybody, truly believe it. Execution rate is going to be the difference in every game from here on.

 

[Jimmy3Putt]

*If they stay healthy the rest of the way


Kizer needs to take off sooner if teams drop eight and no one is open quickly.
Get a few yards and move on to the next snap.
Once he figures that out, I see no weaknesses on the offense.

 

[Fbolt]

BK said it in his post game presser. 2 games on the road, UVA and Clemson. Barely squeaked by UVA and lost at Clemson. ND needs to learn to get the strong W on the road (Temple, Pitt, BC) and soundly defeat the inferior teams. I'm a believer. Palo Alto at 10-1. Hopefully against another playoff team.

Another thought. I'm sure BK will allow the team to rest and get some much needed recovery but at the same time, use this break to bring the younger guys like Morgan and Kizer (more) up to speed. I can see Morgan playing more in the second half of the season and Kizer making a small leap forward after this bye week.

 

[EifertPower]

Before the year started, i thought the stretch of Ga Tech, Clemson, and USC would be brutal...essentially playing 3 top 15 teams in 4 weeks and i would've been thrilled with 2-1 in that stretch. So we are exactly where i hoped we'd be and if we were going to lose a game all season, losing by 2 points in a monsoon on the road to Clemson was the game to lose.

It's there for the taking. I really want Temple, Pitt, and Stanford to not lose again in the weeks heading up to these games. Should make them all legit games against Top 20 teams.

If Ga Tech and Texas can salvage their seasons and make a bowl and upset a big dog in their conference then it helps us out a lot as well.

 

[Buster Bluth]

My revised prediction is we lose one more game either to Pitt or Stanford and go 10-2.

I don't think Pittsburgh is that good. Look at their record:

vs Youngstown State: W, 45-37
at Akron: W, 24-7
at Iowa: L, 27-24
at Virginia Tech: W, 17-13
vs Virginia: W, 26-19
at Georgia Tech: W, 31-28

at Syracuse
vs North Carolina
vs Notre Dame
at Duke
vs Louisville
vs Miami

Don't get me wrong, I hope they win the ACC. But I think it's just as likely that they lose four more games too. There isn't much in their 5-1 start that says top 25 to me. I think they finish 9-3 with loses to Iowa, North Carolina, and Notre Dame. Will that get them ranked at the end of the year? I hope so.

 

[mick2]

Overall, very happy with team 127.

This team has faced more adversity this year alone than many teams face in an entire 4 year period.

gotta avoid that headscratching loss, any away game right now is a scary scenario, we simply have not played well on the road.

who would've thought that Pitt and Temple would be two of the tougher games on our schedule. (at least on paper)

both of those teams will be playing the ND game likes its their super bowl. and will likely throw the kitchen sink at us.

if we can navigate the next 4 games, look out for a heavy weight duel in palo alto in Nov.

we are sitting pretty right now, every team ranked ahead of us has to play each other at some point in the near future. we keep winning. We will be there in the end.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Ten wins or bust.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Absolutely. And not including the bowl

 

[Irish YJ]

I think I originally said 11-1 or 10-2 regular season. Still thinking the same, but I'd lean toward 11-1 now.

Can't remember which thread the original projections/predictions were in. Anyone know?

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

Our offense is obviously better than any Kelly has worked with during his tenure so far.

My question is this...

Would our defense now do any better than our 2012 D did in the NC?

If we end up playing Bama in the playoffs, does Henry run through and right by us?

If we play Baylor, do they hang 50 on us?

The lack of pass rush, trick plays and big chunk plays is concerning.

 

[ulukinatme]

Pitt will be a close one as always I wager. Temple will be no pushover. BC will summon all their strength to do their worst. I'm not terribly concerned about Wake, certainly the easiest remaining game we seem to have. We can make it to Stanford at 10-1, but we'll have to fight each week still and the defense needs to be better.

 

[irishfan]

Right now, I'm in playoffs or bust mode. We have no excuse losing any game leading up to Stanford. And I think we have more talent than they have for sure. In reality, 10-2 is a great year with our injuries. But, I just feel like we should be able to win out.

 

[pkt77242]

Our offense is obviously better than any Kelly has worked with during his tenure so far.

My question is this...

Would our defense now do any better than our 2012 D did in the NC?

If we end up playing Bama in the playoffs, does Henry run through and right by us?

If we play Baylor, do they hang 50 on us?

The lack of pass rush, trick plays and big chunk plays is concerning.

The most concerning thing to me is the shitty tackling. There is way too many missed tackles by our defense.

 

[NorthDakota]

I'm thinking they'll head to Palo Alto with just the Clemson loss.

This team is fun with an unhealthy dose of frustrating mixed in.

 

[ickythump1225]

Our offense is obviously better than any Kelly has worked with during his tenure so far.

My question is this...

Would our defense now do any better than our 2012 D did in the NC?

If we end up playing Bama in the playoffs, does Henry run through and right by us?

If we play Baylor, do they hang 50 on us?

The lack of pass rush, trick plays and big chunk plays is concerning.

I'm not sure how our defense would do, but I'm confident our offense can score on anybody in the nation. The biggest thing that stood out to me from the game last night is we are fast. In my 11 years as a fan I have never seen a ND team that had a player capable of blowing by Adoree Jackson like he was standing still.

 

[IrishLax]

Great thread, Cack.

If you told me before the season started that we would go through Texas, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and USC with one loss, be ranked in the top 10, and cover the spread in six out of seven games, I would've begrudgingly taken it... if you also told me our only loss would be to Clemson on the road by the slimmest of margins, and that would we destroy Texas and Georgia Tech and handle USC by double digits, I would've for sure taken it.

But if you told me we'd lose Zaire, Folston, Jones, Smythe, etc. and we'd do that... I don't think anyone on this board would've turned it down. It is truly remarkable how well this team has played given the hand that they were dealt... with the exception of the trip to UVA, ND has outperformed expectations in every. single. game. ND was pegged as a 9 win team by Vegas BEFORE injuries, so anything at 10+ wins should be considered unmitigated success.

When you consider we spent the entire fall tailoring an offense to Malik Zaire+Folston and lost both of them... and somehow we have the #5 offense in the country with a RS frosh QB who got no reps and might not even know the meaning of the word "progressions" and a converted WR that had never played RB before in his life being asked to carry the ball 20+ times a game, it's truly absurd.

 

[IrishinSyria]

We have a relatively easy stretch coming up (though, since We Are ND, is anything ever easy) and I'd love to see Redfield and Morgan get some serious reps in that period. If the only thing keeping them off the field is understanding, they should be able to understand everything by the time Stanford comes around.

Otherwise, I'm thrilled with where we are. It sucks that we got Clemson in a hurricane, because I think we beat them by 10+ in good weather.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Great thread, Cack.

If you told me before the season started that we would go through Texas, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and USC with one loss, be ranked in the top 10, and cover the spread in six out of seven games, I would've begrudgingly taken it... if you also told me our only loss would be to Clemson on the road by the slimmest of margins, and that would we destroy Texas and Georgia Tech and handle USC by double digits, I would've for sure taken it.

But if you told me we'd lose Zaire, Folston, Jones, Smythe, etc. and we'd do that... I don't think anyone on this board would've turned it down. It is truly remarkable how well this team has played given the hand that they were dealt... with the exception of the trip to UVA, ND has outperformed expectations in every. single. game. ND was pegged as a 9 win team by Vegas BEFORE injuries, so anything at 10+ wins should be considered unmitigated success.

When you consider we spent the entire fall tailoring an offense to Malik Zaire+Folston and lost both of them... and somehow we have the #5 offense in the country with a RS frosh QB who got no reps and might not even know the meaning of the word "progressions" and a converted WR that had never played RB before in his life being asked to carry the ball 20+ times a game, it's truly absurd.

Great post and exactly the reason why I re-posted in the Revisiting BK thread. The points you made are all valid and the staff deserves an immeasurable amount of credit for having this team where they do going into the Bye. I'm ecstatic.

 

[ulukinatme]

I'm disappointed no one has commented on Bye's passing attack and how they'll shred our secondary. Those WRs are legit.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Pitt and BC will be grinders; those are what my VT OLineman brother called "Thug Teams" --- brawlers. They don't back up and they don't fold. Our offense is so explosively good [with a QB who doesn't shake, finally] that we should score enough to win, but it's a wear-and-tear schedule in these last five games. I believe, with darn good reason, that we will win the next four games but not "prettily" [and the IE board will constantly bitch that we're not perfectly pretty, thus ruining the ride for everybody else.]

Stanford? We'll know by then whether Stanford and the PAC-12 are really good or somewhat overinflated. I also believe, with less good reason, that if the ACC does not cannibalize, we will not make the final four even though we deserve to. If the ACC gets in, then it is hard for me to envision a final four without an SEC team, or a B1G team, or Baylor/TCU. Then we just miss the bus. {getting the PAC-12 champ if not Stanford, or the SEC or B1G runner-up in the second tier bowls.}

 

[ShawneeIrish]

This team has shown incredible heart and reselience. Zaire seems like a very rare level of leader its amazing that Kizer could step in and nearly replicate that leadership. CJ Procise has been remarkable never would have imagined he could perform so well. So many playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. BK has built wonderful depth. One of the biggest and best surprises has been special teams...finally impacting the game in the return game, punt team has been great, and Yoon has become another asset. Now the concern is of course on defense. Sheldon Day is a great player but I think still need improvementin pass rush. Hopefully KVR builds off the big INT and puts together a big second half. To finish with a great season need to really reduce the big plays the defense is giving up and not allow more trick plays. Overall very good first half. Will face some unexpected challenges in Temple and Pitt. Hopefully go into Palo Alto with a shot at a truly special 11-1 season! Really rxcited for the second half!

 

[RDU Irish]

I don't think Pittsburgh is that good. Look at their record:

vs Youngstown State: W, 45-37
at Akron: W, 24-7
at Iowa: L, 27-24
at Virginia Tech: W, 17-13
vs Virginia: W, 26-19
at Georgia Tech: W, 31-28

at Syracuse
vs North Carolina
vs Notre Dame
at Duke
vs Louisville
vs Miami

Don't get me wrong, I hope they win the ACC. But I think it's just as likely that they lose four more games too. There isn't much in their 5-1 start that says top 25 to me. I think they finish 9-3 with loses to Iowa, North Carolina, and Notre Dame. Will that get them ranked at the end of the year? I hope so.

That would likely put them in the ACC Championship. At worst they would be considered the ACC #3 behind Clemson and FSU which helps our SOS.

It would really help if the winner from their division knocks off Clemson/FSU to open up a playoff spot. Other opening is if Stanford can win the PAC12 making us look better knocking them out on the road to finish the season.

 

[JughedJones]

Great thread, Cack.

If you told me before the season started that we would go through Texas, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and USC with one loss, be ranked in the top 10, and cover the spread in six out of seven games, I would've begrudgingly taken it... if you also told me our only loss would be to Clemson on the road by the slimmest of margins, and that would we destroy Texas and Georgia Tech and handle USC by double digits, I would've for sure taken it.

But if you told me we'd lose Zaire, Folston, Jones, Smythe, etc. and we'd do that... I don't think anyone on this board would've turned it down. It is truly remarkable how well this team has played given the hand that they were dealt... with the exception of the trip to UVA, ND has outperformed expectations in every. single. game. ND was pegged as a 9 win team by Vegas BEFORE injuries, so anything at 10+ wins should be considered unmitigated success.

When you consider we spent the entire fall tailoring an offense to Malik Zaire+Folston and lost both of them... and somehow we have the #5 offense in the country with a RS frosh QB who got no reps and might not even know the meaning of the word "progressions" and a converted WR that had never played RB before in his life being asked to carry the ball 20+ times a game, it's truly absurd.

absurd

 

[RDU Irish]

Our offense is obviously better than any Kelly has worked with during his tenure so far.

My question is this...

Would our defense now do any better than our 2012 D did in the NC?

If we end up playing Bama in the playoffs, does Henry run through and right by us?

If we play Baylor, do they hang 50 on us?

The lack of pass rush, trick plays and big chunk plays is concerning.

Henry doesn't scare me as much as Adoree. Speed in space versus bruisers up the middle, I'll take our chances with the bruisers. USC put up a ton of yards and the key was getting stops, TOs and our offense outpacing them. Few teams have the combo of a top 10 offense AND a top 10 defense. Even having both units in the top 25 is probably tough to come by. We might be as close as anyone - even after a slew of injuries.

We don't fumble on the two yard line we might have blown the doors off and embarrassed them. We played far from a perfect game and still won by double digits. USC showed up to play with elite athletes across the board.

 

[Blaise]

Right now, I'm in playoffs or bust mode. We have no excuse losing any game leading up to Stanford. And I think we have more talent than they have for sure. In reality, 10-2 is a great year with our injuries. But, I just feel like we should be able to win out.

I think it is VERY possible we go 11-1 and don't make the playoffs.. Even if Stanford wins out and we beat them, that could be the only win over a top 25 team we will have at end of the season.. Clem, Big Ten champ, SEC champ, and an undefeated Baylor or TCU. seems like they all get in over us