'18 PA QB Phil Jurkovec (Wherever I May Roam Chud)

[ulukinatme]

Sustained success got Polini fired at Nebraska. Do we have lower standards?

It's championship time in this day and age. Not "blend in nicely with the upper middle".

Did Pelini ever get to the Playoff or NCG? No. While Kelly has had a few stinker seasons, he's achieved greatly in the last 3 seasons, greater than most coaches would have given the challenges and limitations of ND. NDdomer2 is right, 8 wins can get you fired and it leads to recruiting classes getting decimated. 11 win seasons lead to better recruiting and more opportunities.

 

[Free Manera]

You are right that this is a microcosm of a larger debate. Satisfaction with being "above average" vs. striving to be a championship team.

This statement sums up the root of all discord on this site.

 

[317Irish]

Boom.

There's a difference and a choice between "We can play it safe and be a ~10 win team",

And

"We can also go this route which could get us to 12 wins, but also drop us to 8 wins if hell breaks out".

"The enemy if great is good."

Are you referring to Book replacing Wimbush?

 

[Wingman Ray]

Fact is no one knows the full story and we can all gather here and claim we know something that at best, is a partial story.

PJ didnt get along with Rees. Was it because Rees got frustrated with PJs inability to grasp the material or actually produce or was it PJ seeing Rees as playing favorites?

No one here knows and the ones that do arent talking.

Fact is that BK and Rees were frustrated with PJ. So were they wrong and PJ right? Was PJ held down so they could play a clearly physically limited QB that they liked?

Doubtful.

If PJ had 5 star qualities, he would have played. If he showed he could perform in practice, dont you think you would have heard more from the players frustration wise why the superior QB was being benched?

I wondered as well why the guy didnt get more mop up duty but again, we have no idea what was going on in practices performance wise. If the guy cant perform in practice, how do you think he will do in games?

 

[greyhammer90]

You are right that this is a microcosm of a larger debate. Satisfaction with being "above average" vs. striving to be a championship team.

Boom.

There's a difference and a choice between "We can play it safe and be a ~10 win team",

And

"We can also go this route which could get us to 12 wins, but also drop us to 8 wins if hell breaks out".

"The enemy if great is good."

You assume 8 wins is the floor. With bad QB play 8 wins is not the floor.

The fact that the coaches have routinely put the tamper on talk of Phil going in, even when Book was struggling, shows that they know that 8 wins (or worse) is far more likely than suddenly being a juggernaut. It's crazy to think that the coaching staff would just sit on Trevor Lawrence if he were on the team given how Book earned his job.

If we go 8 wins, the people who are slinging hot takes everywhere will be the first to call for BK's head and will be talking about how stupid it was to bench a guy who had gone 19-3 as a starter going into his 5th year. I'd love to see BK explain why a starter with respect and chemistry with the team, who's now played on the big stage, who's won repeatedly, AND who practices better than QB2 is benched for QB2. BK's answer at this point would have to be "Well, he was ranked higher coming out of high school by Jamie Uyeyama, so we just thought 'YOLO. Dare to be great and all that'"

Also hurting this narrative is that we went for 12 wins last year, and not only that but Book was the reason we went for 12 wins. We went from barely beating Ball State to torching Stanford in a month. So the idea that we can't win 12 with Book is just demonstrably wrong.

It's just such a strawman argument that a football fan saying "I think the guy that the coaches seem to prefer after watching practice a hundred times, who wins like 87% of his games, and who is coming into his 5th year on a statistical uptick is the better guy for the job" is a mediocrity settling wuss.

 

[ulukinatme]

Fact is no one knows the full story and we can all gather here and claim we know something that at best, is a partial story.

PJ didnt get along with Rees. Was it because Rees got frustrated with PJs inability to grasp the material or actually produce or was it PJ seeing Rees as playing favorites?

No one here knows and the ones that do arent talking.

Fact is that BK and Rees were frustrated with PJ. So were they wrong and PJ right? Was PJ held down so they could play a clearly physically limited QB that they liked?

Doubtful.

If PJ had 5 star qualities, he would have played. If he showed he could perform in practice, dont you think you would have heard more from the players frustration wise why the superior QB was being benched?

I wondered as well why the guy didnt get more mop up duty but again, we have no idea what was going on in practices performance wise. If the guy cant perform in practice, how do you think he will do in games?

This. You don't recruit a 5 star kid just to sit him on the bench. Coaches put time and resources into bringing him to ND. He either gets it, or he doesn't. He clearly did not have the tools or execution necessary to run this offense yet.

 

[koonja]

You assume 8 wins is the floor. With bad QB play 8 wins is not the floor.

The fact that the coaches have routinely put the tamper on talk of Phil going in, even when Book was struggling, shows that they know that 8 wins (or worse) is far more likely than suddenly being a juggernaut. It's crazy to think that the coaching staff would just sit on Trevor Lawrence if he were on the team given how Book earned his job.

If we go 8 wins, the people who are slinging hot takes everywhere will be the first to call for BK's head and will be talking about how stupid it was to bench a guy who had gone 19-3 as a starter going into his 5th year. I'd love to see BK explain why a starter with respect and chemistry with the team, who's now played on the big stage, who's won repeatedly, AND who practices better than QB2 is benched for QB2. BK's answer at this point would have to be "Well, he was ranked higher coming out of high school by Jamie Uyeyama, so we just thought 'YOLO. Dare to be great and all that'"

Also hurting this narrative is that we went for 12 wins last year, and not only that but Book was the reason we went for 12 wins. We went from barely beating Ball State to torching Stanford in a month. So the idea that we can't win 12 with Book is just demonstrably wrong.

It's just such a strawman argument that a football fan saying "I think the guy that the coaches seem to prefer after watching practice a hundred times, who wins like 87% of his games, and who is coming into his 5th year on a statistical uptick is the better guy for the job" is a mediocrity settling wuss.

Too much content, didn't read. Not hot enough.

 

[greyhammer90]

Too much content, didn't read. Not hot enough.

I'm the mayor of flavortown.

 

[ThePiombino]

Don't get me wrong. I was excited as anybody about Phil. But I have not been as excited about a recruit as I am about Tyler ever. If Tyler doesn't pan out, I just may stop watching college football. It will be too depressing.

Jaylon Smith?

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

 

[ThePiombino]

Are you referring to Book replacing Wimbush?

Well done.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

 

[koonja]

Are you referring to Book replacing Wimbush?

Touche. Each situation is different though. We had an elite WR with a elite speed WR this year. Book was struggling mightily.

I wanted to see the "Cardale Jones" offense wirh punishing QB runs and long bombs that open the whole field. PJ was no doubt the QB for that offense.


If JT Daniels doesn't get hurt, OSU doesn't reach their potential with Cardale and they don't win a title.

Even the greatesr Coaches get it wrong.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Touche. Each situation is different though. We had an elite WR with a elite speed WR this year. Book was struggling mightily.

I wanted to see the "Cardale Jones" offense wirh punishing QB runs and long bombs that open the whole field. PJ was no doubt the QB for that offense.


If JT Daniels doesn't get hurt, OSU doesn't reach their potential with Cardale and they don't win a title.

Even the greatesr Coaches get it wrong.

JT Barrett.

And then the year after (2015), Cardale's play showed that the Buckeyes' magical run was just as much due to not having any film on Cardale. Do you know who started in the Fiesta Bowl vs ND? I'll give you a hint, it was the guy whose name you forgot in your post.

 

[koonja]

JT Barrett.

And then the year after (2015), Cardale's play showed that the Buckeyes' magical run was just as much due to not having any film on Cardale. Do you know who started in the Fiesta Bowl vs ND? I'll give you a hint, it was the guy whose name you forgot in your post.

JT whatever, he started for 16 years so everyone knows who I mean.

OSU was surprised to be better by the 2014 QB change.

2015 OSU was a totally different team. To pretend that was all due to "film on Cardale" is an all time bad take.

Saban had 14 days lf film on Cardale, and he didn't run a lot of plays.

Cardale was the best QB for OSU in 2014 and no one knew it including Urban Meyer until he didnt have a choice.

 

[317Irish]

JT whatever, he started for 16 years so everyone knows who I mean.

OSU was surprised to be better by the 2014 QB change.

2015 OSU was a totally different team. To pretend that was all due to "film on Cardale" is an all time bad take.

Saban had 14 days lf film on Cardale, and he didn't run a lot of plays.

Cardale was the best QB for OSU in 2014 and no one knew it including Urban Meyer until he didnt have a choice.

I actually agree that we could have ran an offense where PJ could potentially get this team just as far as Book got us and just as far as Wimbush might have gotten us. At the end of the day (and Koon you may have mentioned this in the past) none of the guys mentioned would have/will get us anything other than a possible ticket to the show where we lose to a much better QB.

 

[StPaul_Irish]

I actually agree that we could have ran an offense where PJ could potentially get this team just as far as Book got us and just as far as Wimbush might have gotten us. At the end of the day (and Koon you may have mentioned this in the past) none of the guys mentioned would have/will get us anything other than a possible ticket to the show where we lose to a much better QB.

Based on..... science?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I wanted to see Phil in the Michigan (well, earlier) and VT games too.

Kelly's tenure has had more than its share of QB issues but is there a coach in FBS who has more history of willingness to bench starters?

Anyway, Phil's timing makes little sense if it's purely from a concern about playing time.

 

[317Irish]

Based on..... science?

I assume you mean my agreement to PJ being able to have some success? I think his skill set would make things really complicated for many defenses that we could out-athlete. Do you want to load the box to stop the read-options/QB draws that PJ would have excelled at, well then our guy has a good arm if given time, and Claypool (if he was the guy this year) to throw it up to when in trouble. That’s a pretty damn good foundation that they could have built on throughout the year as PJ would have gotten comfortable being QB1.

 

[ulukinatme]

JT whatever, he started for 16 years so everyone knows who I mean.

OSU was surprised to be better by the 2014 QB change.

2015 OSU was a totally different team. To pretend that was all due to "film on Cardale" is an all time bad take.

Saban had 14 days lf film on Cardale, and he didn't run a lot of plays.

Cardale was the best QB for OSU in 2014 and no one knew it including Urban Meyer until he didnt have a choice.

Cardale also didn't come to play school.

 

[beryirish]

Cardale also didn't come to play school.

Given the activity of the Transfer Portal nowadays it looks like a lot of kids are living up to that quote.

 

[Irish#1]

IDK who those other 3 are, but I bet they were surrounded elite high 4/5 star QBs that forced them out, no?

Not the case here. We have 3 star in front, and 3 star behind, then true frosh who is irrelevant to Phil's decision.

As I posted earlier, Book is no longer a 3 star kid. He's a 4 star QB. Why is it hard for you to see that he has improved to the point he is better than Phil? Just because Phil was a 4 star doesn't mean he was going to get better and better.

How many kids do we get that are rated 3 star but think they should be rated 4 stars? We always give credit to the 3 star kids who play other positions that improve. Why can't we do that with the QB?

 

[General Colon Bowel]

I actually agree that we could have ran an offense where PJ could potentially get this team just as far as Book got us and just as far as Wimbush might have gotten us. At the end of the day (and Koon you may have mentioned this in the past) none of the guys mentioned would have/will get us anything other than a possible ticket to the show where we lose to a much better QB.

There's a narrative on this board that seems to pin our inability to get over the hump against top teams on Book's play, but when you look at the numbers it doesn't make sense.

Book's performance against Georgia and Clemson over the past two years is pretty similar to how elite quarterbacks generally compare against Top 10 defenses. I went back over the past two seasons and looked at how Lawrence, Fields, Burrow, Daniel Jones, Tua, Hurts, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, and Dwayne Haskins fared against top 10 defenses (Murray didn't face any).

Compare these elite QBs' 22 games against elite defenses in '18 + '19 to Book's 2 games:

Elite QB game average: 19.7/32.1, 224.6 yds, 1.3 td / 0.55 int - 9 car 17 yds 0.4 tds
Book vs Clem + UGA avg: 23/42, 217.5 yds, 1 td / 1.5 int - 10 car 24 yds 0 tds

Versus the run support elite qbs got in these games compared to Book's (this would be rushing totals minus rushing stats generated by the QBs themselves):

Elite rushing support avg: 27.55 car, 157.3 yards, 1.27 TDs, 5.71 ypc
Book's rush support avg: 14 car, 45 yards, 0 TDs, 3.21 ypc

The stark contrast is in the rushing numbers, not the qb play.

Book has turned the ball over more than an elite qb should in these games, but he also received zero run support.

Book can quarterback at a championship level. We cannot run the ball at a championship level against elite defenses. That is the biggest issue holding back this team

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

There's a narrative on this board that seems to pin our inability to get over the hump against top teams on Book's play, but when you look at the numbers it doesn't make sense.

Book's performance against Georgia and Clemson over the past two years is pretty similar to how elite quarterbacks generally compare against Top 10 defenses. I went back over the past two seasons and looked at how Lawrence, Fields, Burrow, Daniel Jones, Tua, Hurts, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, and Dwayne Haskins fared against top 10 defenses (Murray didn't face any).

Compare these elite QBs' 22 games against elite defenses in '18 + '19 to Book's 2 games:

Elite QB game average: 19.7/32.1, 224.6 yds, 1.3 td / 0.55 int - 9 car 17 yds 0.4 tds
Book vs Clem + UGA avg: 23/42, 217.5 yds, 1 td / 1.5 int - 10 car 24 yds 0 tds

Versus the run support elite qbs got in these games compared to Book's (this would be rushing totals minus rushing stats generated by the QBs themselves):

Elite rushing support avg: 27.55 car, 157.3 yards, 1.27 TDs, 5.71 ypc
Book's rush support avg: 14 car, 45 yards, 0 TDs, 3.21 ypc

The stark contrast is in the rushing numbers, not the qb play.

Book has turned the ball over more than an elite qb should in these games, but he also received zero run support.

Book can quarterback at a championship level. We cannot run the ball at a championship level against elite defenses. That is the biggest issue holding back this team

Your point is well taken but the style of passing game ND employed in those two games also does not help set up the run. ND allowed safeties to set up shop 10 yards from the LOS. The run and pass needed to complement one another better (which also requires changes to the run game). This is why I was happy to see a change at OC.

I was also happy to see Ian Book push the ball downfield like never before once we got into the back third of the schedule this season.

 

[zelezo vlk]

JT whatever, he started for 16 years so everyone knows who I mean.

OSU was surprised to be better by the 2014 QB change.

2015 OSU was a totally different team. To pretend that was all due to "film on Cardale" is an all time bad take.

Saban had 14 days lf film on Cardale, and he didn't run a lot of plays.

Cardale was the best QB for OSU in 2014 and no one knew it including Urban Meyer until he didnt have a choice.

An all time bad take that Cardale wasn't the answer for OSU's offense so much so that Urban...replaced his championship winning QB with JT Barrett. Lol c'mon Koon. Cardale was limited, he got hot at the right time but proved the year afterwards that it wasn't the same.

That 2015 OSU team was largely the same as the 2014 team, which is why Lax was rightfully worried about a matchup with them in the Fiesta Bowl.

 

[Irish#1]

I wanted to see the "Cardale Jones" offense wirh punishing QB runs and long bombs that open the whole field. PJ was no doubt the QB for that offense.

Was he? He hits on one bomb against a terrible opponent. Is that what you're hanging your hat on? Right after that pass, he struggled with the offense, because he either couldn't read the D or didn't know the plays. The announcers even commented on that.

 

[317Irish]

Your point is well taken but the style of passing game ND employed in those two games also does not help set up the run. ND allowed safeties to set up shop 10 yards from the LOS. The run and pass needed to complement one another better (which also requires changes to the run game). This is why I was happy to see a change at OC.

I was also happy to see Ian Book push the ball downfield like never before once we got into the back third of the schedule this season.

While I admit the “could have gotten us as far as Book” might have been an exaggeration, I was going to make the same point as you about the LOS being crowded against a QB that would hardly look further than 15 yards downfield. Not to mention that in Generals stats he shows Book averaging an additional 1 INT/game and we all know that can make or break a game assuming we’re not getting blown out.

 

[General Colon Bowel]

I was also happy to see Ian Book push the ball downfield like never before once we got into the back third of the schedule this season.

Absolutely. And it showed in the results. Now he just needs to be given the opportunity to do it consistently for a whole year and execute it like he did over the last 5 games

 

[Wild Bill]

There's a narrative on this board that seems to pin our inability to get over the hump against top teams on Book's play, but when you look at the numbers it doesn't make sense.

Book's performance against Georgia and Clemson over the past two years is pretty similar to how elite quarterbacks generally compare against Top 10 defenses. I went back over the past two seasons and looked at how Lawrence, Fields, Burrow, Daniel Jones, Tua, Hurts, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, and Dwayne Haskins fared against top 10 defenses (Murray didn't face any).

Compare these elite QBs' 22 games against elite defenses in '18 + '19 to Book's 2 games:

Elite QB game average: 19.7/32.1, 224.6 yds, 1.3 td / 0.55 int - 9 car 17 yds 0.4 tds
Book vs Clem + UGA avg: 23/42, 217.5 yds, 1 td / 1.5 int - 10 car 24 yds 0 tds

Versus the run support elite qbs got in these games compared to Book's (this would be rushing totals minus rushing stats generated by the QBs themselves):

Elite rushing support avg: 27.55 car, 157.3 yards, 1.27 TDs, 5.71 ypc
Book's rush support avg: 14 car, 45 yards, 0 TDs, 3.21 ypc

The stark contrast is in the rushing numbers, not the qb play.

Book has turned the ball over more than an elite qb should in these games, but he also received zero run support.

Book can quarterback at a championship level. We cannot run the ball at a championship level against elite defenses. That is the biggest issue holding back this team

Interesting data. What's difficult to determine is whether or not Book's limitations as a passer plays a role in the disappointing run game, and if it does, to what extent.

A big arm elite passer who is willing to take shots downfield, i.e., Lawrence, opens up the run game, even against elite defenses.

 

[koonja]

Was he? He hits on one bomb against a terrible opponent. Is that what you're hanging your hat on? Right after that pass, he struggled with the offense, because he either couldn't read the D or didn't know the plays. The announcers even commented on that.

Yeah. Him and their new offense lesding the to a NC is also a part of it.

 

[Wingman Ray]

Can you imagine how bad the year could have been next year with a Starting QB under center that handled a combined 10 snaps in 2019?

 

[General Colon Bowel]

While I admit the “could have gotten us as far as Book” might have been an exaggeration, I was going to make the same point as you about the LOS being crowded against a QB that would hardly look further than 15 yards downfield. Not to mention that in Generals stats he shows Book averaging an additional 1 INT/game and we all know that can make or break a game assuming we’re not getting blown out.

Small sample size. 1 interception was bad, 1 was a result of Book trying to make too much happen in a game where he was getting no help from anyone, 1 hit Finke in the hands and tipped to a defender.

I do agree being a threat to throw downfield is essential to opening things up against elite defenses. It looks like they did a better job of that at the end of the year. Hopefully they build on that over the offseason