I'm going to go ahead and assume that the strength of the respective recruiting classes from Notre Dame, Penn State, and Ohio State will have a huge impact.
Bill O'Brien can say "oh yeah Patriots offense yadda yadda" all he wants, but if Breneman sees a so-so Penn State team with another struggling offense and a mediocre recruiting class due to the extreme lack of Nittany Lion enthusiasm (due, of course, to Jerry Sandusky and Joepa's death)...I have difficulty seeing a smart kid say "yeah, I'll turn this thing around!" He is a TE, and ultimately cannot succeed without other strong players around him (...like at quarterback, which Penn State does not have at the moment).
If Penn State doesn't surprise in the win column and in the recruiting rankings, I have a difficult time seeing Breneman end up there. No info.