2024 College Football Playoffs

[bumpdaddy]

Seeds not rankings
1 Oregon
2 Georgia
3 Boise
4 Arizona State

5 Notre Dame
6 Texas
7 Penn State
8 Ohio State
9 Tennessee
10 Indiana
11 Clemson
12 SMU

It might be difficult to rank Clemson ahead of SMU because that would mean Clemson would jump 6 teams in the rankings, including 3 spots ahead of South Carolina, who just beat them. Maybe they'll do it, but they could also keep Clemson ranked outside of the top twelve, giving them the 12 seed, and drop SMU 3 spots to 11 and the 11th seed.

 

[TracyGraham]

Just my opinion, I thinking tomorrow's rankings will provide some insight on ND's status as an independent and the deal that Swarbrick negotiated with the playoff committee. Since ND didn't have a chance to compete for a conference championship and a first round bye, one would think teams ahead of them that had the opportunity should also face the consequences of a loss. If ND still has an equal/strong standing as an independent, I would expect ND to move ahead of PSU and possibly even Texas. If so, I think it will show ND is still very strong as an independent and Savvy solidified his legacy. On the other hand, if PSU can lose and stay ahead, it makes ND look a bit weaker as an independent. I think it will be interesting to see.

 

[T-Boone]

I think SMUs record is about the same/equal Texas. Not sure why the talk is just between SMU or Bama. It should be SMU, Bama or Texas.

 

[Huntr]

I think the only question is if they keep Bama or SMU.

I know what they *should* do, but I'm not the committee.

 

[wizards8507]

It doesn't matter. It's not a talent contest. They lost three games. Two of them to 6 loss teams.

Tell that to Miami.

 

[arrowryan]

I think the only question is if they keep Bama or SMU.

I know what they *should* do, but I'm not the committee.

It will be the biggest crock of shit in the 10 years of the CFP, if Bama gets in over SMU.

 

[stpeteirish]

I think the only question is if they keep Bama or SMU.

I know what they *should* do, but I'm not the committee.

The Athletic’s algorithm has it 79% SMU 21% Alabama for the 11 spot with Clemson 12. We are 6 but could be 5 or 7. If we are 7 it’s IU.
Like our chances especially if we stay out of the 7 hole

 

[wizards8507]

It will be the biggest crock of shit in the 10 years of the CFP, if Bama gets in over SMU.

I'm sorry I just think you guys are nuts. 9-3 against Alabama's schedule is far more deserving than 11-2 against SMU's.

 

[notredomer23]

Emotional hedging this with a $20 bet on Bama to offset the annoyance they’ll be in

 

[arrowryan]

I'm sorry I just think you guys are nuts. 9-3 against Alabama's schedule is far more deserving than 11-2 against SMU's.

I know, those road games against Vandy and Oklahoma were daunting

 

[notredomer23]

 

[wizards8507]

I know, those road games against Vandy and Oklahoma were daunting

Quality of victory matters more than quality of loss.

 

[arrowryan]

Quality of victory matters more than quality of loss.

So you’re rewarding losing?

 

[wizards8507]

This is such a crayon-eater argument, it's like obsessing over batting average in baseball when OPS and WAR exist. We have better metrics to evaluate teams and those metrics say Texas is a top 3 team.

FPI, SP+, Strength of Record, various Efficiency metrics. Texas is top 3 in all of them (as is Notre Dame).

Why not Army? Army has one loss, to an elite team, and they actually won their conference. Why not Army over all of these other teams?

 

[wizards8507]

So you’re rewarding losing?

I'm rewarding strength of schedule. Not above all else, but as a factor.

 

[arrowryan]

I'm rewarding strength of schedule. Not above all else, but as a factor.

They got boat raced by a team that was 1-5 in their last 6 games against FBS opponents and lost to a team that lost to Georgia Southern.

That has to matter too

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

This is such a crayon-eater argument, it's like obsessing over batting average in baseball when OPS and WAR exist. We have better metrics to evaluate teams and those metrics say Texas is a top 3 team.

FPI, SP+, Strength of Record, various Efficiency metrics. Texas is top 3 in all of them (as is Notre Dame).

Why not Army? Army has one loss, to an elite team, and they actually won their conference. Why not Army over all of these other teams?

Ok, ND is #1 or #2 in nearly all advanced metrics. Why won't we be rewarded for that? We will still be behind Penn St which is behind us in every single advanced metric.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Bottom line, if you are looking at metrics ND should be ranked #2 today, but we won't because we don't play in a conference.

Because THE PEOPLE ON THE COMMITTEE HAVE ROOTING INTERESTS IN THE TEAMS THEY ARE RANKING! WTF KIND OF SYSTEM DOES THIS?

 

[wizards8507]

They got boat raced by a team that was 1-5 in their last 6 games against FBS opponents and lost to a team that lost to Georgia Southern.

That has to matter too

Then why not Army? If SMU is in, Army should be in.

Ok, ND is #1 or #2 in nearly all advanced metrics. Why won't we be rewarded for that? We will still be behind Penn St which is behind us in every single advanced metric.

We will not be behind Penn State.

 

[notredomer23]

This is such a crayon-eater argument, it's like obsessing over batting average in baseball when OPS and WAR exist. We have better metrics to evaluate teams and those metrics say Texas is a top 3 team.

FPI, SP+, Strength of Record, various Efficiency metrics. Texas is top 3 in all of them (as is Notre Dame).

Why not Army? Army has one loss, to an elite team, and they actually won their conference. Why not Army over all of these other teams?

I don’t agree with the comparison, but I previously didn’t think Texas was going to drop past 5 and now I am not so sure when comparing to ND. I also find it remarkable how unbalanced schedules in these expanded conferences have become. It’s the only reason Indiana is in, too

 

[NotKoon]

The fact that Dinich had ND 7 tells me that’s the spot. It’s completely absurd that neither Penn St or Texas will suffer any consequences from losing but it has nothing to do with who earned it. I truly believe that if Bama was in over SMU they’d be 6

 

[arrowryan]

Then why not Army? If SMU is in, Army should be in.


We will not be behind Penn State.

Because, per the committee, teams won’t be punished for losing a CCG. The committee loves to favor the SEC, so I wouldn’t put it past them to do that.

To drop them 5 spots because they lost on a last second field goal would be ridiculous. Alabama, after getting curb stomped by 5-5 Oklahoma, only dropped 6 spots.

Rankings and metrics are cool, but the games have to matter.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

If we do wind up facing Georgia, would they have the Peach Bowl?

I believe so. Previously bowl ties are used. Oregon would get Rose bowl.

 

[arrowryan]

I believe so. Previously bowl ties are used. Oregon would get Rose bowl.

I’m pretty sure Brice said that the top 4 teams pick the location of their second round matchup

 

[wizards8507]

Because, per the committee, teams won’t be punished for losing a CCG. The committee loves to favor the SEC, so I wouldn’t put it past them to do that.

To drop them 5 spots because they lost on a last second field goal would be ridiculous. Alabama, after getting curb stomped by 5-5 Oklahoma, only dropped 6 spots.

Rankings and metrics are cool, but the games have to matter.

This doesn't answer my question.

Every argument that would keep SMU over Alabama means that Army should be in over SMU.

 

[arrowryan]

This doesn't answer my question.

Every argument that would keep SMU over Alabama means that Army should be in over SMU.

The committee’s stance on not punishing teams for losing a CCG does answer your question

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Except the computers ALSO say that Boise and SMU are fringe teams at best. You can't code SEC bias into the statistical models.

Sure you can it’s called the “Eye Test”.

 

[IrishLax]

The results happening how they happened… especially SMU losing at the buzzer… to me this was the only way that Bama could conceivably get left out. I would rather be 6 and host Bama and then get a shot at Boise State or ASU in the next round then some of the alternatives being thrown around right now (namely hosting Indiana and playing Georgia-without-Beck in next round). 98% of Georgia’s problems have been Carson Beck turning the ball over or doing other stupid shit.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

I'm sorry I just think you guys are nuts. 9-3 against Alabama's schedule is far more deserving than 11-2 against SMU's.

One of those 2 losses for SMU came in the Conf Championship game. Committee says they won’t penalize teams for that. So 11-1 vs 9-3 is a bit different. And Fuck Bama.

 

[arrowryan]

The results happening how they happened… especially SMU losing at the buzzer… to me this was the only way that Bama could conceivably get left out. I would rather be 6 and host Bama and then get a shot at Boise State or ASU in the next round then some of the alternatives being thrown around right now (namely hosting Indiana and playing Georgia-without-Beck in next round). 98% of Georgia’s problems have been Carson Beck turning the ball over or doing other stupid shit.

They should avoid mostly avoid Georgia if ND gets the 6 seed. Which is where I think ND lands.