2022 Week 11 Prediction Poll: (20) Notre Dame vs. Navy

[Some Irish Bloke]

#20 Notre Dame (6-3) vs. Navy (3-6)
Line: Notre Dame -15.5
M&T Bank Stadium; Baltimore, MD
Saturday, November 12, 2022
12:00 PM EST
ABC

Votes are public. Poll closes on Saturday, 11/12 at 11:15 AM ET.

Notre Dame hits the road to Baltimore to take on an always pesky Navy football squad after notching it's biggest win since...beating Clemson in 2020. The Irish bullied the #4 team in the country and dominated an NFL caliber DL, find themselves back into the top 20 of the polls, and have won 6/7 games since the disappointing 0-2 start. The Baltimore Ravens are on a bye week, so hopefully our beloved Kyle Hamilton will be in attendance to support his boys on Saturday!

Navy has struggled again this year for the most part with only three wins against Tulsa, ECU and Temple, after miserable 4-8 and 3-7 campaigns the past two seasons. Two of those three wins required overtime. They haven't been to a bowl game since 2019. Their run of 8-10 wins since Paul Johnson took over the program in the mid 2000s, continued by Ken Niumatalolo until about 2016, appears to be over, as Air Force and Army have both surpassed Navy between the three military academies in recent years.

Of course, Navy is going to focus on running the football with it's triple option, ranked 9th in the country in rushing offense. They average 286 yards per game, but that's inflated by two performances against SMU and Tulsa in which they ran for an absurd 455 and 372 yards, respectively. Remove those, and their average drops to 186 yards per game. Notre Dame has improved to the 36th ranked rushing defense, 33rd passing defense, and 27th total defense, overall. If Al Golden can keep his LBs assignment sound, there's no reason Navy should be able to sustain drives and bleed the clock. If we win the coin flip, it will be interesting to see if Freeman continues to defer, or if he'll elect for a quick start and the lead, which is a much more comfortable way to play against Navy. Navy lost their starting QB two weeks ago against Temple for the season, so another advantage to the Irish as they will get Navy's backup QB, Xavier Arline, who struggled to move the ball against Cincy last week.

Navy's defensive stats are a mixed bag; they come in ranked 49th in total defense, bolstered by a "strong" run defense ranked 7th in the country and allowing only 88 yards per game, versus an abysmal passing defense ranked 114th and allowing 275 yards per game. The quality of competition is what makes it hard to judge; Navy may appear to be stout at stopping the run but they haven't played a team with ND's ability to run the football with an OL our size and a three headed beast at RB. Though it may be tempting to test a weak secondary early and often, it would be wise for Rees and Co. to stick with our strength: running the damn ball.

I understand the obvious worry/narrative of "let down game! hitting the road after a top 5 win!" but ND has been so good and focused away from South Bend, and the sting of the Marshall and Stanford games should keep the boys focused against every opponent from here on out.

My prediction: ND 41, Navy 17

 

[tko]

Grupe to win it at the horn.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Shout out to our three participants who had the ultimate faith in our Irish and took ND 14+ last week: @dankgesang, @JJRyan and @INLaw. INLaw has three straight correct predictions and moves into a tie for second place at 3 total; JJRyan also with two straight. Keep up the good work gentlemen.

No other movement at the top.

 

[Irish4life]

ND 34

Navy 17

Pyne has his best day passing since UNC against a bad Navy secondary.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Grupe to win it at the horn.

I can't imagine a more stressful outcome; not only would it be frustrating to go toe-to-toe with Navy for 4 quarters, but Grupe has been pretty shaky of late. That would really test the nerves.

 

[IrishLion]

Even if ND dominates and wins by multiple scores... there won't be enough time on the clock to make it a true blowout.

ND 31, Navy 17.

7 of those Navy points are via a 10-minute 4th quarter drive that totally ruins any chance we had at seeing Angeli do more than hand the ball off, because we can't have ALL of the nice things a week after being blessed by a dominating victory over Clemson.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I think if the weather is good, ND will have a season high in passing yards.

I expect that if the game flow permits they will try to get Pyne going against man coverages.

 

[IrishLion]

Navy lost their starting QB two weeks ago against Temple for the season, so another advantage to the Irish as they will get Navy's backup QB, Xavier Arline, who struggled to move the ball against Cincy last week.

Arline got banged up a few times against UC and left the game in the 3rd quarter... if ND gets a matchup against their 3rd-stringer, it's a dude that has a pretty good arm, but only has 21 passing attempts and 15 rushing attempts in four seasons for Navy.

If Navy resorts to a third-stringer with very little experience that will be asked to throw the ball, and he is airing out pop-ups down the field like he did in limited action against UC... ND's DB's might combine for 3 INT's.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I think if the weather is good, ND will have a season high in passing yards.

I expect that if the game flow permits they will try to get Pyne going against man coverages.

Good news then, weather is looking perfect; 67 high, partly cloudy with 10-15 mph winds. Nothing that should affect a football game.

Rain on Friday looks to be earlier in the day so I expect field conditions to be just fine.

 

[thekid33]

ND - 40
Navy - 10

 

[DONTH8]

Even if ND dominates and wins by multiple scores... there won't be enough time on the clock to make it a true blowout.

ND 31, Navy 17.

7 of those Navy points are via a 10-minute 4th quarter drive that totally ruins any chance we had at seeing Angeli do more than hand the ball off, because we can't have ALL of the nice things a week after being blessed by a dominating victory over Clemson.

Careful, Lax is going to see this and rail us for talking about Angeli getting some burn in the postgame thread…

 

[tko]

I can't imagine a more stressful outcome; not only would it be frustrating to go toe-to-toe with Navy for 4 quarters, but Grupe has been pretty shaky of late. That would really test the nerves.

OMG so true. What is hit % this year?

 

[tko]

If we give up 17 to Navy I'm going to blow a gasket. I get the Noon start and how they play but stop the madness. It's November and I'm hoping the vibe has turned after last week.

 

[notredomer23]

31-24 ND wins.

ND losing at the half 17-7.

 

[luckofirish8]

Pain!

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

OMG so true. What is hit % this year?

71%, though he's 100% on PATs.

TBF, he's only attempted 10 FGs, is 100% inside of 30, 1-2 30-39, and 2-4 40-49.

Freeman and Rees are aggressive and love to go for it in 4th and short situations even though we've been pretty abysmal in short yardage, especially in the RZ. Hopefully those trends continue to improve like they did the past couple of weeks.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

31-24 ND wins.

ND losing at the half 17-7.

I've never wanted someone to be more wrong in their life haha

 

[greyhammer90]

31-24 ND wins.

ND losing at the half 17-7.

That would be a gut punch of a reality check.

 

[notredomer23]

I've never wanted someone to be more wrong in their life haha

That would be a gut punch of a reality check.

I desperately hope I’m wrong. I just don’t think Navy is completely terrible, it’s a let down spot, and Golden has historically performed poorly against the option.

I could just as easily see ND blowing them out, but with how the season has gone I don’t want to expect it.

 

[NDdomer2]

i have 14-20 and thinking 14 exactly. Both teams are gonna be RTDB so going to be difficult to get ahead too much with the lower possessions.

 

[arrowryan]

Together, Freeman and Golden have a lot of experience against the triple option. Combine that with Navy using their backup QB and not having a dominant FB, I have a tough time seeing Navy scoring a lot of points.

Running the ball is the easy answer for Notre Dame’s offense. I really want to see how Navy attempts to defend Michael Mayer though. They might have to use 2-3 guys. That would really open up the passing game.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

That would really open up the passing game.

To throw it to who?

I'm thinking Jayden Thomas has another really nice game. Seems like another really tough match up for Navy given his size.

I'll keep saying it every week until it happens: would love to see Lenzy or Styles have a break out performance.

 

[ACamp1900]

I love all the 'Pyne will hit all these open receivers against that horrid secondary' takes.... he will still have to delivery the pass accurately.

 

[irishfan]

Navy has been getting better and better as the year goes. We need to start hot or else I’m worried this is going to be a game in the 4th quarter. I like us 31-14 but it won’t be fun.

 

[rtrn2glory]

I hate playing Navy HATE IT. Just leave with a win. Can't take anymore steps backward. We've already had two.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Our defense hasn't been getting off the field quite as well as previous years (to my eye.)
That could mean that Navy won't score much, but we won't have a lot of possessions.
If so, it could be a low-scoring victory. We might look a lot better than the score.
I'll take a W this week happily however it comes. ..... NO INJURIES!!!!!!

 

[tko]

To throw it to who?

I'm thinking Jayden Thomas has another really nice game. Seems like another really tough match up for Navy given his size.

I'll keep saying it every week until it happens: would love to see Lenzy or Styles have a break out performance.

Told you Styles 5 TD’s

 

[thekid33]

it won’t be fun.

Evergreen statement when it comes to the Navy game.

 

[kzoondfi]

Make sure to factor in another punt block. It's a lock.

Rain Friday but weather looks nice Saturday.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Interesting note here from a Navy writer on the cut-block rule changes:

• I also think that Navy’s triple-option attack has been somewhat neutered a bit by the new cut-blocking rules. When Niumatalolo took over more than a decade ago, there really were no restrictions, and the Mids’ offensive linemen could wreak havoc on defenses while opening up running lanes. In the past few years, the NCAA has gradually implemented restrictions on cut blocking – a key component of what makes the triple option effective. And this year, the NCAA banned cut blocking outside of the tackle box. A lot of folks say cut blocking is dirty, and if you’re of a team Navy plays on a regular basis, you probably hate it. But it is absolutely one of the crucial ingredients in making the triple-option effective.

He predicted ND 17-10...