2022 Bowl Projections

irishff1014

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Old Man Mike said:
I'm imagining that the best resultant that I can realistically hope for (now) is a 6-6 season with a mediocre bowl game (not the worst since they will still know that ND will draw) and we put together a very good winning outing to make us feel a little better looking forward to tne next cycle's recruiting and the next season.
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I think if we finish at 6-6 the recruiting class takes a hit.
 
Some Irish Bloke

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irishff1014 said:
I think if we finish at 6-6 the recruiting class takes a hit.
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I really don't think that's the case, personally. We are less than 2 months away from NSD, and the only flip watch we're really aware of is Bowen, which doesn't really have much to do with the how the season's gone, that's been a developing story since summer/fall camp. At this point, the classs is 80% baked, if not more, barring utter disaster. I just don't see how a 2-3 finish after a 4-3 start is going to make much of a difference at this point.

I think Freeman get's the benefit of the doubt being a first year head coach and can easily explain away a lot of the trials and tribulations of this fall, at least to recruits and their families; starting QB gets hurt, took a while to get my systems and culture installed, etc.

Now, if they get off to a slow start next season, I could see the 2024 class getting a bit dicey.
 
Armyirish47

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The bowl tier is possibly on the rise along with the fortunes of the program.

The ESPN.com Insider crew has come together for the week

Hand in hand

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Utah
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Utah

Jerry Palm at CBS disagrees, but still a pleasant place to visit.

Palm trees on deck

Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Notre Dame vs. Mississippi State
 
Some Irish Bloke

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condoms SUCk said:
any chance if we win out and beat a 10-1 USC we make a NY6?
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I think we would need some help; doesn't seem very likely at this point but then again, ND draws a ton if interest both in attendance and TV revenue so it's possible.

I think there's a claim that they deserve it if they beat two top 10 teams (maybe top 5? let's see what USC does vs. UCLA), and a total of four ranked wins.

You'd also have a very quality fifth win over UNC who was unranked at the time, but currently 8-1 and #15. There are certainly arguments both ways with our horrible two losses.

Biggest issue is our wins over Clemson and UNC might hurt since the ACC may not make the playoff at this point, so their champion will get the ACC auto-bid for the Orange Bowl. That would limit us to at-large bids against a lot of other teams.
 
Whiskeyjack

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Some Irish Bloke said:
I think we would need some help; doesn't seem very likely at this point but then again, ND draws a ton if interest both in attendance and TV revenue so it's possible.

I think there's a claim that they deserve it if they beat two top 10 teams (maybe top 5? let's see what USC does vs. UCLA), and a total of four ranked wins.

You'd also have a very quality fifth win over UNC who was unranked at the time, but currently 8-1 and #15. There are certainly arguments both ways with our horrible two losses.

Biggest issue is our wins over Clemson and UNC might hurt since the ACC may not make the playoff at this point, so their champion will get the ACC auto-bid for the Orange Bowl. That would limit us to at-large bids against a lot of other teams.
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Don't disagree with any of this. But the powers that be love helping us get into NY6 bowls, because we bring more money and eyeballs than anyone who's not in the playoff.

If we win out, we should be on the bubble of NY6 eligibility, which generally breaks in our favor.
 
stlnd01

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Whiskeyjack said:
Don't disagree with any of this. But the powers that be love helping us get into NY6 bowls, because we bring more money and eyeballs than anyone who's not in the playoff.

If we win out, we should be on the bubble of NY6 eligibility, which generally breaks in our favor.
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Trouble is there could be a lot of other big teams on that bubble with equal/better records. Michigan/OSU loser, Bama, LSU or Tennessee, Oregon if, say, USC wins the Pac-12 title game. And only so many at-large slots. We’ll see.
 
Whiskeyjack

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stlnd01 said:
Trouble is there could be a lot of other big teams on that bubble with equal/better records. Michigan/OSU loser, Bama, LSU or Tennessee, Oregon if, say, USC wins the Pac-12 title game. And only so many at-large slots. We’ll see.
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"Better" records but worse resumes. These bowls are all very money driven, so we normally get the benefit of the doubt if there's a colorable argument in our favor.
 
Some Irish Bloke

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FWIrish4 said:
Just checked out The Athletic’s bowl projections here: CFB bowl projections: Where do Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama go after the weekend?

1) they have us in the Gator Bowl vs. Florida which would be interesting and kinda fun since we haven’t played them in a long while.
2) Penn St in the Cotton Bowl? They will end up with 0 Top 25 wins. Talk about failing upwards on the coat tails of OSU and Mich.
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Yeah that would be a fun match up and I agree with your second point; no way Ped State deserves a spot in a NY6 as an at large. Curious if that will actually come to fruition.
 
CanadalovesND

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I believe Pete Sampson mentioned on the II podcast on Monday, that the only two NY6 bowl games (should ND qualify) that ND could be eligible for is either the Orange Bowl or the Cotton Bowl, which has two At-Large teams.

Can someone else can shine some more light on this? I am quite unaware of the bowl conference bids and NDs agreement to be included.
 
Some Irish Bloke

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CanadalovesND said:
I believe Pete Sampson mentioned on the II podcast on Monday, that the only two NY6 bowl games (should ND qualify) that ND could be eligible for is either the Orange Bowl or the Cotton Bowl, which has two At-Large teams.

Can someone else can shine some more light on this? I am quite unaware of the bowl conference bids and NDs agreement to be included.
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ND can get any ACC tie-in as long as they're within 1 game of the team eligible for that bowl. I.e. if UNC goes 10-2, and we are 9-3, we'd be eligible for their slots for their games outside of the Orange Bowl (Gator Bowl vs. SEC, Pinstripe bowl vs. B1G, etc.) ND is not eligible for the Orange Bowl as we cannot be the ACC Champion, unless the ACC Champion is heading to the CFP in a season where the Orange Bowl is not one of the two CFP semi-final games.

ND is eligible for the at-large bids for each of the Cotton, Peach and Fiesta bowls (each of these have two at-large bids &/or the top G5 team); typically the NY6 bowls are filled by the remaining top 12 teams in the nation outside of the four playoff teams as best they can, with some outliers. Here are all of the NY6 bowl tie-ins:

  • Rose Bowl – #1 Pac-12 vs. #1 B1G
  • Sugar Bowl – #1 SEC vs. #1 Big XII
  • Orange Bowl – #1 ACC vs. Highest Ranked of #2 B1G/#2 SEC/Notre Dame
  • Fiesta Bowl – At-Large vs. At-Large/#1 Group of Five
  • Peach Bowl – At-Large vs. At-Large/#1 Group of Five
  • Cotton Bowl – At-Large vs. At-Large/#1 Group of Five
Edit: In short, we basically have to be ranked inside the top 12 to have a shot, and then still might need some help depending on the conference tie-ins. As Wild Bill and Pops noted below, with the Fiesta and Peach being playoff games (2 at-large bids a piece), that might be even tougher than normal years with the other three non-playoff games being conference affiliated).

ND CAN replace those conference affiliates if the conference champion is in the CFP, but the bowl commitee will likely default to the higher ranked at large teams. Might not be in the cards this year, fellas.
 
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Wild Bill

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Some Irish Bloke said:
ND can get any ACC tie-in as long as they're within 1 game of the team eligible for that bowl. I.e. if UNC goes 10-2, and we are 9-3, we'd be eligible for their slots for their games outside of the Orange Bowl (Gator Bowl vs. SEC, Pinstripe bowl vs. B1G, etc.) ND is not eligible for the Orange Bowl as we cannot be the ACC Champion, unless the ACC Champion is heading to the CFP in a season where the Orange Bowl is not one of the two CFP semi-final games.

ND is eligible for the at-large bids for each of the Cotton, Peach and Fiesta bowls (each of these have two at-large bids &/or the top G5 team); typically the NY6 bowls are filled by the remaining top 12 teams in the nation outside of the four playoff teams as best they can, with some outliers. Here are all of the NY6 bowl tie-ins:

  • Rose Bowl – #1 Pac-12 vs. #1 B1G
  • Sugar Bowl – #1 SEC vs. #1 Big XII
  • Orange Bowl – #1 ACC vs. Highest Ranked of #2 B1G/#2 SEC/Notre Dame
  • Fiesta Bowl – At-Large vs. At-Large/#1 Group of Five
  • Peach Bowl – At-Large vs. At-Large/#1 Group of Five
  • Cotton Bowl – At-Large vs. At-Large/#1 Group of Five
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The playoff games this year are the Fiesta and Peach, if I'm not mistaken. Can't make the Rose or Sugar so the only option is Orange Bowl or Cotton Bowl. I doubt the Orange wants a rematch of ND vs Clemson or UNC, though.

Pops beat me to it.
 
Pops Freshenmeyer

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Wild Bill said:
The playoff games this year are the Fiesta and Peach, if I'm not mistaken. Can't make the Rose or Sugar so the only option is Orange Bowl or Cotton Bowl. I doubt the Orange wants a rematch of ND vs Clemson or UNC, though.

Pops beat me to it.
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Yeah, I would love to get that Cotton Bowl spot and take on a G5 team for a chance to end the NY6 drought.
 
Wild Bill

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rtrn2glory said:
Do we have a chance at the Cotton if we win out?
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For sure. I think we have to jump the third ranked BIG team or SEC team..

CFP is going to have BIG #1 and SEC#1, without a doubt.

Rose is going to have BIG #2 and Sugar will have SEC #2.

That leaves Penn State in the BIG. I think they have to lose to give ND a shot. In SEC you have a combination of things that can happen but we have to jump one of them, probably Ole Miss. PAC has to cannibalize each other and Texas needs to lose. Probably K State but we may be able to jump them if we play better than them over the next few weeks. I don't think we can jump Texas if they win out b/c they play TCU and that'll boost 'em.

Need a lot to happen but I think it's going to get wild here over the next few weeks.
 
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rtrn2glory

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Wild Bill said:
For sure. I think we have to jump the third ranked BIG team or SEC team..

CFP is going to have BIG #1 and SEC#1, without a doubt.

Rose is going to have BIG #2 and Sugar will have SEC #2.

That leaves Penn State in the BIG. I think they have to lose to give ND a shot. In SEC you have a combination of things that can happen but we have to jump one of them, probably Ole Miss. PAC has to caniblize each other and Texas needs to lose. Probably K State but we may be able to jump them if we play better than them over the next few weeks. I don't think we can jump Texas if they win out b/c they play TCU and that'll boost 'em.

Need a lot to happen but I think it's going to get wild here over the next few weeks.
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Good stuff!

That gives me something to pay attention to this weekend. Pretty crappy schedule during the late afternoon slot before the night games.
 
GATTACA!

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Wild Bill said:
For sure. I think we have to jump the third ranked BIG team or SEC team..

CFP is going to have BIG #1 and SEC#1, without a doubt.

Rose is going to have BIG #2 and Sugar will have SEC #2.

That leaves Penn State in the BIG. I think they have to lose to give ND a shot. In SEC you have a combination of things that can happen but we have to jump one of them, probably Ole Miss. PAC has to cannibalize each other and Texas needs to lose. Probably K State but we may be able to jump them if we play better than them over the next few weeks. I don't think we can jump Texas if they win out b/c they play TCU and that'll boost 'em.

Need a lot to happen but I think it's going to get wild here over the next few weeks.
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SEC 2 or B1G 2 could also end up in the playoffs theoretically.
 
stlnd01

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GATTACA! said:
SEC 2 or B1G 2 could also end up in the playoffs theoretically.
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I’d be surprised if those two conferences only have two teams combined in the playoffs. Tennessee, Mich/OSU loser (if it’s close) and LSU if they win out would all be in the mix.
 
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