Sept 3 | Ohio State

[benneboy]

I'm curious why everyone seems so confident that OSU's defense is going to be so much better because they hired Knowles? Knowles has had 1 top 25 defense his entire career from what I can tell (last year) . His first year as a DC at previous stops have been awful.

 

[AgentJ]

I’m actually shocked by those numbers and wonder if they are true,… the UGA games, the FSU games, two of the Clemson games,.. all came down to the wire and some of those were on the road.

Literally if Ian Book looks left in the slightest we beat UGA. I know you can always have "ifs" but dude we win the game if he notices a wide open receiver that will walk into the end zone

 

[AgentJ]

I'm curious why everyone seems so confident that OSU's defense is going to be so much better because they hired Knowles? Knowles has had 1 top 25 defense his entire career from what I can tell (last year) . His first year as a DC at previous stops have been awful.

I think they'll be better simply bc it's been drilled into their skull that they can't defend the run for 8 months straight. They'll be motivated to prove that wrong.

But let me tell you... If we start running on them early, they will doubt themselves and that mental change would mean everything

 

[ulukinatme]

I'm curious why everyone seems so confident that OSU's defense is going to be so much better because they hired Knowles? Knowles has had 1 top 25 defense his entire career from what I can tell (last year) . His first year as a DC at previous stops have been awful.

True, it took about 4 years to turn around Ok St's defense, but he also has more talent to work with at tOSU than he ever had there, or at Duke, Cornell, Western Michigan, and probably more than the one year he spent at Ole Miss in 2003. If there was going to be a quick turn around, his best chance to do it would be at tOSU.

 

[du Lac]

No chance little bro beats big bro in coverage. Little brother syndrome is real.

 

[Irish#1]

Most everything has been discussed, so here's a diversion.

Assuming no losses by Bama, UGA and Clemson, if our lads pull out a victory Saturday night, where do they and the Buckeyes end up getting ranked in the next poll?

 

[Gold1]

Most everything has been discussed, so here's a diversion.

Assuming no losses by Bama, UGA and Clemson, if our lads pull out a victory Saturday night, where do they and the Buckeyes end up getting ranked in the next poll?

With a close win I think they move up to 3, behind Georgia and Alabama.

 

[hungryhippo]

Literally if Ian Book looks left in the slightest we beat UGA. I know you can always have "ifs" but dude we win the game if he notices a wide open receiver that will walk into the end zone

Or if Wimbush has any touch whatsoever on the screen/delayed release right to Adams in ‘17.

 

[irishff1014]

Most everything has been discussed, so here's a diversion.

Assuming no losses by Bama, UGA and Clemson, if our lads pull out a victory Saturday night, where do they and the Buckeyes end up getting ranked in the next poll?

I would say we probably jump Clemson. So we would be 3 and OSU falls to 5th. Georgia kills the ducks that’s the only other decent game.

 

[NDdomer2]

Most everything has been discussed, so here's a diversion.

Assuming no losses by Bama, UGA and Clemson, if our lads pull out a victory Saturday night, where do they and the Buckeyes end up getting ranked in the next poll?

on the flip:

close loss we fall to?
ass beating we fall to?

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

on the flip:

close loss we fall to?
ass beating we fall to?

Close loss we fall to 7 or 8.

Ass beating we fall into the 12-14 range.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

I think they'll be better simply bc it's been drilled into their skull that they can't defend the run for 8 months straight. They'll be motivated to prove that wrong.

But let me tell you... If we start running on them early, they will doubt themselves and that mental change would mean everything

Agreed. OSU knows the only way most teams can beat them is by running the ball. They know ND focused on the UO & UM games from last season. They also know ND’s QB is a first time starter who is known as a run first QB so they will force him to pass. If Buchner can answer the bell, ND can get something going. The key, IMO; is not giving up on the run no matter how many stuffs. It’ll be frustrating to watch but you have to trust your OL to eventually break the dam.

 

[tko]

Finebaum cannot wait to lay into ND on Sunday.

 

[Irish#1]

on the flip:

close loss we fall to?
ass beating we fall to?

If it's a close loss, I think we stay at 5. Ass beating 12.

 

[du Lac]

Agreed. OSU knows the only way most teams can beat them is by running the ball. They know ND focused on the UO & UM games from last season. They also know ND’s QB is a first time starter who is known as a run first QB so they will force him to pass. If Buchner can answer the bell, ND can get something going. The key, IMO; is not giving up on the run no matter how many stuffs. It’ll be frustrating to watch but you have to trust your OL to eventually break the dam.

If Buchner runs the ball, don't think OSU isn't trying to hit him so hard he doesn't want to play anymore. TB is going to need to learn to slide so we can keep him healthy all season. That said, I think he can put a hurting on some people that try and tackle him too.

 

[irishff1014]

Finebaum cannot wait to lay into ND on Sunday.

I dislike him more than Mark May and that’s saying something.

 

[IHateMarkMay]

I dislike him more than Mark May and that’s saying something.

I would say Finebaum is the new Mark May. I don't remember Finebaum being a national name until Alabama got really good. Which is just about the same time Mark May rode off into the sunset.

 

[Irishcop]

I dislike him more than Mark May and that’s saying something.

Man, I remember how much I used to hate that guy...

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Man, I remember how much I used to hate that guy...

And David Pollack

 

[ThePiombino]

Would be ecstatic with a 12 point loss on the road to probably the #1 team in the country.

Fuck that. Moral victories should be a thing of the past. Time to start making some noise among the elites again.

 

[DCDomer]

I want to say +17 is free money, but I don't want to be hurt again.

 

[JamIrish]

According to Vegas insider... as it stands right now... ND has 57% of the bets to cover but OSU has 68% of the money. Which means the sharps are taking OSU and like Vegas, they're banking on the public to pour money on the ND side. ND has a whopping 87% of the money on the moneyline at +590 despite only having around 13% of the bets. This most likely means no way ND wins and Vegas pays out almost 6x 87% of the money, they would take a huge hit even if they get majority of the money on the spread and over/under. Best case scenario right now is OSU doesn't cover and it's a tight game to get more money on the ND side during in game betting.

 

[notredomer23]

According to Vegas insider... as it stands right now... ND has 57% of the bets to cover but OSU has 68% of the money. Which means the sharps are taking OSU and like Vegas, they're banking on the public to pour money on the ND side. ND has a whopping 87% of the money on the moneyline at +590 despite only having around 13% of the bets. This most likely means no way ND wins and Vegas pays out almost 6x 87% of the money, they would take a huge hit even if they get majority of the money on the spread and over/under. Best case scenario right now is OSU doesn't cover and it's a tight game to get more money on the ND side during in game betting.

Two counter points: 1. Smart and big money usually bets late. 2. Why would there be any ML money on OSU? It provides zero value.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

Two counter points: 1. Smart and big money usually bets late. 2. Why would there be any ML money on OSU? It provides zero value.

There can still be bettors and potential value on OSU ML, whether or not we agree with it.

-667 odds is about an 87% implied win probability. If you think OSU has a 90% chance of winning, that is positive expected value, and you should place that bet every time and will profit in the long run.

The typical bettor isn’t rational. Many may simply view the spread, think OSU is a lock to win, and might place a ML bet even if it’s -EV.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

Going into round 4 of the Tour Championship S Scheffler was -600 and Rory was +900. ML not always the safe play.

 

[notredomer23]

There can still be bettors and potential value on OSU ML, whether or not we agree with it.

-667 odds is about an 87% implied win probability. If you think OSU has a 90% chance of winning, that is positive expected value, and you should place that bet every time and will profit in the long run.

The typical bettor isn’t rational. Many may simply view the spread, think OSU is a lock to win, and might place a ML bet even if it’s -EV.

I have never met a bettor that would make any type of bet on -667 odds, or in the case on the actual sportsbooks, -910. Wager $910 to win $100? No shot straight up. Maybe throw them in as part of a ML favorites parlay but that's it.

 

[JamIrish]

Two counter points: 1. Smart and big money usually bets late. 2. Why would there be any ML money on OSU? It provides zero value.

To point 1: Smart money comes in as soon as the line is open. That's why it has moved 4 points because sharps hammered OSU. Which explains why more money is on them despite more bets are on ND. If more money stays on OSU around game time then smart money will come in on ND to hedge their bet.
To point 2: My point is that the value that has been put on ND at +590 would be a huge hit to Vegas if it happens. They don't tend to lose money on marquee games.

 

[rikkitikki08]

The money line was way to good to pass on for me. GO IRISH

 

[rikkitikki08]

Also hammer the under in my opinion

 

[IrishLax]

I just got shit talked today by a cart girl about this upcoming game. Apparently the "4 for 40" pitch at Ohio State is that if you really apply yourself you might someday get to mix a Bloody Mary for a Notre Dame alum on a golf course.