'23 IL WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State Verbal)

[Irish du Nord]

Have to credit Tennessee in their plan. They secured the money. They secured the QB and now have moved to the WRs. All because they hired a HC who has a Mickey Mouse offense that takes advantage of CFB rules (or lack thereof) and Hooker strung together a nice half a season to offer up the resemblance of a plan for the future.

It’s essentially a business proposal. It doesn’t work just with NIL. It doesn’t work just with Nico. And it doesn’t work just with Heupel’s offense. But they now have all three.

Mickey Mouse offense for a Mickey D’s university

 

[Dale]

Easy to say when you’re not being offered several million dollars. Unless the difference in NIL is negligible this is the right decision.

Depends. Tennessee’s pitch is likely that Tate is so talented and he’ll get 10 targets a game = first round pick.

It’d say he’s more likely to achieve that at Ohio State though. Which is risking millions in 4 years. If Tate is not a first round pick in 4 years, it’ll go down as the wrong decision in the end. You take the money but he’s still risking money and placing a bet with it in a sense.

 

[TorontoGold]

Easy to say when you’re not being offered several million dollars. Unless the difference in NIL is negligible this is the right decision.

Would be interesting to see in 10-15 years (or however long a good data set can be made) of NIL earnings by WR and see the delta's between different schools. At that point the kid's agent errr "advisor" would probably lay it out to them and then they can make the experience argument and assign their personal value to that experience of choosing the school.

 

[IrishLax]

The reason schools like A&M and Tennessee are throwing around the money that they are is rooted in desperation. They haven't been relevant in their conference races in decades. Boosters now have a path to try to buy something they couldn't organically develop. Bama, Georgia, Ohio State, etc. don't have desperate boosters like that because 1) they are routinely competitive in conference/national races 2) they remember recent conference or national championships. They absolutely DO have NIL money, just not the obscene desperation to throws millions at an unproven teenager. Tenn/A&M are not setting a market and they are not the sustainable "norm"... the norm is below that.

But I don't fault anyone for taking guaranteed money if they consider it lifechanging. This is America. Everyone's situation is different, and people deserve to get fair market value for their skills.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Easy to say when you’re not being offered several million dollars. Unless the difference in NIL is negligible this is the right decision.

Circumstances.

$2-4M now (which who knows the contract language and how much is truly guaranteed) versus putting yourself in the best position to get to the NFL with a dependable degree and network to boot? I dunno, time is on your side to make more in the long run if you do it right. Plus, I8 year old me would have never been able to act responsibly with that money anyway. It's amazing how many leeches are out there and how fast $2-$4M can vanish......

 

[Ndaccountant]

Would be interesting to see in 10-15 years (or however long a good data set can be made) of NIL earnings by WR and see the delta's between different schools. At that point the kid's agent errr "advisor" would probably lay it out to them and then they can make the experience argument and assign their personal value to that experience of choosing the school.

That's where this is all a crapshoot. The bust ratio on recruiting is high and these kids will be expected to perform now. Not when they are a senior, but impact player ASAP. How do you put a value to that? I am sure they are hiring all the finest actuaries they can find.

ND has had a nice little run recently of elder WR's breaking out in the Junior/Senior year. You think boosters at A&M or UT are going to wait around for player XX to round into form their senior year? I would imagine that is incredibly unlikely and this will only perpetuate transfers.

 

[IHateMarkMay]

That's where this is all a crapshoot. The bust ratio on recruiting is high and these kids will be expected to perform now. Not when they are a senior, but impact player ASAP. How do you put a value to that? I am sure they are hiring all the finest actuaries they can find.

ND has had a nice little run recently of elder WR's breaking out in the Junior/Senior year. You think boosters at A&M or UT are going to wait around for player XX to round into form their senior year? I would imagine that is incredibly unlikely and this will only perpetuate transfers.

It makes you wonder what kind of safety net the boosters have in these NIL deals. Perhaps it's performance based only and the numbers being reported are if the kid meets all of the criteria?

If there isn't a safety net, at some point, you'd have to think that boosters can't pay 15 five stars every year without eventually running low on funds (or patience).

 

[TorontoGold]

That's where this is all a crapshoot. The bust ratio on recruiting is high and these kids will be expected to perform now. Not when they are a senior, but impact player ASAP. How do you put a value to that? I am sure they are hiring all the finest actuaries they can find.

ND has had a nice little run recently of elder WR's breaking out in the Junior/Senior year. You think boosters at A&M or UT are going to wait around for player XX to round into form their senior year? I would imagine that is incredibly unlikely and this will only perpetuate transfers.

The bust ratio is what makes the NIL so important for kids to maximize their value. The market will likely find a normalized point in which the NIL deals meet the returns that are generated from the money spent for the general org in this space. At which point, ND better have the team ready to be within that range because we know ND will have the "experience" part of the college package down. It can't rely on Mick Assaf's feet pics to compete.

For boosters though - plenty of boosters will be made to look like fools by spending way too much. It's all a game though to them as realizing actual returns is probably minimal. If a kid is taking crazy booster money then too bad so sad if they get processed because they didn't meet their performance targets. Which is why their needs to be a clearinghouse by the NCAA to provide 3rd party representation so that kids and their families understand this. You don't get the big $$$ and then get to be upset when you get processed for being a bum.

 

[Irish4life]

Shocker lol

 

[PANDFAN]

It makes you wonder what kind of safety net the boosters have in these NIL deals. Perhaps it's performance based only and the numbers being reported are if the kid meets all of the criteria?

If there isn't a safety net, at some point, you'd have to think that boosters can't pay 15 five stars every year without eventually running low on funds (or patience).

It's the biggest reason why ewers left...his nil was tied to him playing and producing..can't on the bench or mop up

 

[notredomer23]

It makes you wonder what kind of safety net the boosters have in these NIL deals. Perhaps it's performance based only and the numbers being reported are if the kid meets all of the criteria?

If there isn't a safety net, at some point, you'd have to think that boosters can't pay 15 five stars every year without eventually running low on funds (or patience).

Reading more about the Nico deal, it sounds like he gets $8MM guaranteed with it tough for them to get that back. Every single NIL dollar he earns up to $8MM then belongs to them. After the first $8MM of NIL made, the collective then gets 10%. Nico seems like a charismatic kid, and if his talent matches his star rating, maybe he can earn that much in NIL? Really just pay to play.

 

[Irish#1]

After reading several articles on NIL's, there are so many variables on these NIL deals it's enough to make your head swim. Most on the outside sound like great deals, but the details make some of them not so great deals for the kid. For some, they may be getting pressure from the parents to take the money or some may come from backgrounds where it will help the family improve their lot in life. They better get an attorney to review before signing, but you can bet many probably don't.

Those that sign these kids are taking a gamble as well. Some will not live up to their recruiting hype. Some will flunk out. Some will transfer. Some will just be average.

I agree with Lax. A&M and Tennessee are outliers. Water has a way of finding its level and NIL deals will after a couple of years of results.

 

[dublinirish]

so the latest is he's going to Tenne$$ee

 

[IHateMarkMay]

To be honest, what's the best way to get the most followers on your social media? Make it seem like you are going to every school you are visiting. Until the LOI is signed (for any school), I won't believe this is over.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

 

[GATTACA!]

Circumstances.

$2-4M now (which who knows the contract language and how much is truly guaranteed) versus putting yourself in the best position to get to the NFL with a dependable degree and network to boot? I dunno, time is on your side to make more in the long run if you do it right. Plus, I8 year old me would have never been able to act responsibly with that money anyway. It's amazing how many leeches are out there and how fast $2-$4M can vanish......

Right now the top 10 WRs for this years draft class includes guys from Arkansas, PSU, North Dakota State, Western Michigan, and USC. Those are all schools at or well below Tennessee's level. You don't need to be at a top 5 program to be seen as one of the best WRs in the country. You need production and good test results. Both of which you can do at any school. Could be argued it might be even easier somewhere like Tennessee vs OSU/Alabama/Georgia where you're in a loaded depth chart.

 

[benneboy]

Circumstances.

$2-4M now (which who knows the contract language and how much is truly guaranteed) versus putting yourself in the best position to get to the NFL with a dependable degree and network to boot? I dunno, time is on your side to make more in the long run if you do it right. Plus, I8 year old me would have never been able to act responsibly with that money anyway. It's amazing how many leeches are out there and how fast $2-$4M can vanish......

These kids are 18. 2 mill sounds like 'lavish lifestyle and never have to work again' money to them.

 

[stlnd01]

Right now the top 10 WRs for this years draft class includes guys from Arkansas, PSU, North Dakota State, Western Michigan, and USC. Those are all schools at or well below Tennessee's level. You don't need to be at a top 5 program to be seen as one of the best WRs in the country. You need production and good test results. Both of which you can do at any school. Could be argued it might be even easier somewhere like Tennessee vs OSU/Alabama/Georgia where you're in a loaded depth chart.

Sure but that's a bit like saying "half (or whatever it is) the first-round draft picks were three stars so stars don't matter." The basic stat may be true but the hit rate's a lot higher for five-stars, and the same holds for players at the top programs, where superior coaching and culture is going to make you better. Especially if you're a confident young five-star who's not scared of a little competition. There's a reason running backs line up to go to 'Bama, and wide receivers to Ohio State.

All that said, Tennessee is a pretty major program, and Tate could play with Nico who everyone seems to think is the real deal. He could have a fine college career there. He's just going to lose a lot of games along the way. But maybe if you're getting enough NIL money that doesn't matter so much.

 

[TorontoGold]

These kids are 18. 2 mill sounds like 'lavish lifestyle and never have to work again' money to them.

If you do it right, it is. $2M in a low risk fund that generates a div of ~4% per year is $80K a year without any appreciation in value. He could run camps and work as a low level coach and make another $40K. That's $120k before tax a year without touching the principal of $2M.*

*****with the right financial advisor who isn't brain dead

 

[GATTACA!]

Sure but that's a bit like saying "half (or whatever it is) the first-round draft picks were three stars so stars don't matter." The basic stat may be true but the hit rate's a lot higher for five-stars, and the same holds for players at the top programs, where superior coaching and culture is going to make you better. Especially if you're a confident young five-star who's not scared of a little competition. There's a reason running backs line up to go to 'Bama, and wide receivers to Ohio State.

All that said, Tennessee is a pretty major program, and Tate could play with Nico who everyone seems to think is the real deal. He could have a fine college career there. He's just going to lose a lot of games along the way. But maybe if you're getting enough NIL money that doesn't matter so much.

By the same token how many 5 star guys either end up transferring out after being buried on a depth chart or simply don't amount to anything? Either way it's a gamble on yourself. Can I rise to the top at a loaded school or can I overcome the disadvantages of being on a team with less resources? But in Tate's case it seems like only one route includes several million dollars guaranteed.

Not to mention something out of his control happening that causes his NFL dreams to fail. An injury or illness that ends his career would be much easier to swallow with 2 million dollars already in the bank.

 

[jprue24]

Pay them kids.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

On3 saying Tate to Tennessee.

 

[Irishnuke]

Highly doubt he’d even OV to Tennessee if not for NIL

 

[Blazers46]

Highly doubt he’d even OV to Tennessee if not for NIL

Bad for maybe ND but good for Tennessee.

 

[NorthDakota]

On3 saying Tate to Tennessee.

.... money is everything. Imagine going to a school that has been trash since you were born lol

 

[benneboy]

If you do it right, it is. $2M in a low risk fund that generates a div of ~4% per year is $80K a year without any appreciation in value. He could run camps and work as a low level coach and make another $40K. That's $120k before tax a year without touching the principal of $2M.*

*****with the right financial advisor who isn't brain dead

This is the kind of math that gets people in trouble. Your assuming he doesnt buy a house, car, get his girlfriend a rock. What about the tax on that 2 mill? Also you just threw on 40k a year doing work. Sure he can work. Working is not 'not working' and 80k isn't a lavish lifestyle. 80k is also probably closer to 30-40.

 

[NorthDakota]

If you do it right, it is. $2M in a low risk fund that generates a div of ~4% per year is $80K a year without any appreciation in value. He could run camps and work as a low level coach and make another $40K. That's $120k before tax a year without touching the principal of $2M.*

*****with the right financial advisor who isn't brain dead

Oh it's super easy. These guys don't do it right though.

I recall reading a story about a Lions receive (Broyles?) who lived a 60K salary lifestyle because he had no idea how long he'd be in the league and I think he was already married so no need to impress hoes. Smart guy.

 

[stlnd01]

Oh it's super easy. These guys don't do it right though.

I recall reading a story about a Lions receive (Broyles?) who lived a 60K salary lifestyle because he had no idea how long he'd be in the league and I think he was already married so no need to impress hoes. Smart guy.

Marrying a woman who knew you before you were rich/famous, and - crucially - staying married to her, is a very wise financial move.

Unfortunately these NIL recruits are rich before they're even out of high school so they're already screwed.

 

[TorontoGold]

This is the kind of math that gets people in trouble. Your assuming he doesnt buy a house, car, get his girlfriend a rock. What about the tax on that 2 mill? Also you just threw on 40k a year doing work. Sure he can work. Working is not 'not working' and 80k isn't a lavish lifestyle. 80k is also probably closer to 30-40.

It's really not. I've done tax planning for billionaires/millionaires/thousandaires, and the assumption that only commoners are bad with money is wrong. Also, buying a house is a great use of the money, you're discounting the appreciation he'll receive and the cash flow savings on not making a rent or mortgage payment each month. A car and a rock could set him back ~$150K, ok so he'll have $1.85M to work with - still life changing money.

It's 2022, an university educated person with the prestige he would have being a 5* WR recruit with connections from the university he graduates from - $40K is likely under estimating his base line earnings. If I could take $40K to do something I'm passionate in while knowing I don't have a mortgage plus I'm getting $80K to live with, I wouldn't groan about "working".

Presuming he flames out and doesn't earn a penny from the NFL, $120K a year at 22 years old is pretty damn good. Oh and your retirement funds are set up so you don't need to save anything.

Oh it's super easy. These guys don't do it right though.

I recall reading a story about a Lions receive (Broyles?) who lived a 60K salary lifestyle because he had no idea how long he'd be in the league and I think he was already married so no need to impress hoes. Smart guy.

NCAA could get a piece of the action by having appointed advisors to these NIL deals that assists in wealth preservation for them if they had a clearinghouse....but yknow.

 

[Irish#1]

If you do it right, it is. $2M in a low risk fund that generates a div of ~4% per year is $80K a year without any appreciation in value. He could run camps and work as a low level coach and make another $40K. That's $120k before tax a year without touching the principal of $2M.*

*****with the right financial advisor who isn't brain dead

Kids probably not even going to get a lawyer to review the NIL. What makes you think he's going to hire a financial adviser?

Back in the 80's, one of my staff had a sister that was a flight attendant for American Trans Air in Indy. They had the charter contract for the Colts and she flew every road game. I would hear stories all the time how this guys were making $300K - $500K a year but living from paycheck to paycheck because they blew it as fast as they got it.