Russia Invades Ukraine

[Irish#1]

Long thread, maybe not worth reading, but I learned a lot about Russian propaganda that led to this. It cuts to the core of why you have to confront Putin now and why appeasement isn’t an option. Failure and regime change are the only options because he made a huge blunder here and won’t make that mistake again. Your risks of a major war go UP by not confronting him, they do not go down.

Yeah, his ego isn't going to allow him to stop until he gets what he wants or is killed. I'm not advocating for a nuclear war, but how do we know he isn't afraid of getting into a nuclear war? Because he said there would be consequences if things escalated or the U.S. supplied jets? We have a pretty big arsenal of nuclear weapons that would be as damaging to him and Russia. IMO with the bombings near the borders of NATO countries, he's testing how far he can go before he gets a major push back.

 

[Irish#1]

TBF, most people would care if they fully grasped the seriousness of the situation. I understand completely that a country that seems so very unimportant to the daily struggles most encounter would seem so minimal. But this conflict has the potential to shape the world for the next 30 years, just the last 30. Aside from the war aspect, one thing I think people should not take lightly is the influence that corporations are having with the sanctions. If this is a "sign" of the future, it will fundamentally change the US financially (in a good way I believe) but could be planting the seeds for a much more dangerous and closed off world that what any millennial like me is used to.

I was at the B1G championship game yesterday, and caught myself thinking how this great environment with 17K fans was going on while innocent citizens are being killed and having their homes destroyed.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[PerthDomer]

The whole situation is just a win-win for China. If Russia had succeeded with ease, it gave them cover for Taiwan. With Russia failing, it drives them into their arms as a natural resource supplier. If China wants to decline, then it gives them leverage to negotiate with the West "hey if you don't want us giving arms to Russia then stay out of the Taiwan straight."

Putin is fucking the whole world right now.

Not really. The situation really hurts China's economy due to their exposure to raw material price swings, and their international standing. They're really reliant on the European markets for exports and can't plausibly take both sides. Good article from a Chinese scholar that Xi will hopefully listen to.

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China's Choice - U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council.

uscnpm.org

 

[Irish#1]

Not sure if that is bad news or maybe there's a possible breakthrough in talks that he needs to be available for?

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

Not really. The situation really hurts China's economy due to their exposure to raw material price swings, and their international standing. They're really reliant on the European markets for exports and can't plausibly take both sides. Good article from a Chinese scholar that Xi will hopefully listen to.

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China's Choice - U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council.

uscnpm.org

here’s the most salient point made in the text. China is absolutely in a position to be a hero here and win a lot of public praise, if they have to guts to be the good guy for once. It. Will be interesting to see…

“China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.”

 

[PerthDomer]

here’s the most salient point made in the text. China is absolutely in a position to be a hero here and win a lot of public praise, if they have to guts to be the good guy for once. It. Will be interesting to see…

“China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.”

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Lockdowns with Omicron and fear of economic fallout from the Russia thing have the worst day for Chinese markets since 08. This really has to have them rethinking their Russia links. Also, due to massive lockdowns and drop in Chinese Oil demand, crude oil is close to being down 10% on the day.

 

[BrownerandFry]

Long thread, maybe not worth reading, but I learned a lot about Russian propaganda that led to this. It cuts to the core of why you have to confront Putin now and why appeasement isn’t an option. Failure and regime change are the only options because he made a huge blunder here and won’t make that mistake again. Your risks of a major war go UP by not confronting him, they do not go down.

It seems that way.

Putin is a mass murderer a thug, a control freak and an enemy of personal freedom

Hitler did not deserve an off ramp, nor Usama bin Laden.

The tricky calculus comes in determining the likelihood that he would push the chemical or nuclear button. Seriously we could be talking about 200k-500k Ukrainian or other European lives.

But sometimes you can't postpone the moment of confrontation.

Putin is incapable of introspection and remorse. And he's not the first one.

My vote? (irrelevant of course) NO OFF RAMP VLAD.

On propaganda, the master craftsman was Josef Goebbels. I will post some of that stuff later in the week.

 

[notredomer23]

the reporters in these warzones have balls of steel. Seeing Clarissa Ward for example in Kabul and now Kyiv is super courageous. The dichotomy between these war reporters and many of the blue checks like Stelter that think of themselves as heroes couldn't be a bigger gap.

 

[irishog77]

here’s the most salient point made in the text. China is absolutely in a position to be a hero here and win a lot of public praise, if they have to guts to be the good guy for once. It. Will be interesting to see…

“China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.”

This is seems to undoubtedly be the move for China, if as most seem to say and agree that China plays the long game.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Wow, it true.

 

[Blazers46]

This is seems to undoubtedly be the move for China, if as most seem to say and agree that China plays the long game.

I am not well versed on the simplicity or lack thereof when it comes to how one country can help another and not leave some sort of paper/electronic trail. How do we know China is not supporting or subsidizing the Russian invasion already?

 

[Blazers46]

Wow, it true.

Then there is this

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

How long before Iran joins them?

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[Wild Bill]

This is seems to undoubtedly be the move for China, if as most seem to say and agree that China plays the long game.

I don't see it the same way. A Ukrainian "win" is a win for America on an international level and may mean political destablization in Russia. Right now they have a good relationship with Russia and the Russian government, and very clearly enjoy the upper hand in the relationship. Meanwhile, America is the only global power that can actually challenge the Chinese. Outside of international praise, why would they want to destablize a neighboring nation that is a reliable trade partner and simultaneously strengthen America's ability to influence the world? Worse yet, destablizing Russia may open the door to American influence in Russia, which would be a disaster for China, at least in my mind.

Ongoing conflict in the region may be the best outcome for China. It occupies their only competition, America, and it forces Russia to heavily rely on China. They can sit back and watch the two sides destroy each other while they continue getting cheap resources from Russia and peddle bullshit product to America.

On the surface, a Russian "win" here appears to be a better option than a "loss" b/c it chips away at America's ability to influence and makes them look weak.

I have no idea what the hell they're thinking, I just have no idea why they would do anything that would seemingly strengthen America's position on an international level.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I don't see it the same way. A Ukrainian "win" is a win for America on an international level and may mean political destablization in Russia. Right now they have a good relationship with Russia and the Russian government, and very clearly enjoy the upper hand in the relationship. Meanwhile, America is the only global power that can actually challenge the Chinese. Outside of international praise, why would they want to destablize a neighboring nation that is a reliable trade partner and simultaneously strengthen America's ability to influence the world? Worse yet, destablizing Russia may open the door to American influence in Russia, which would be a disaster for China, at least in my mind.

Ongoing conflict in the region may be the best outcome for China. It occupies their only competition, America, and it forces Russia to heavily rely on China. They can sit back and watch the two sides destroy each other while they continue getting cheap resources from Russia and peddle bullshit product to America.

On the surface, a Russian "win" here appears to be a better option than a "loss" b/c it chips away at America's ability to influence and makes them look weak.

I have no idea what the hell they're thinking, I just have no idea why they would do anything that would seemingly strengthen America's position on an international level.

They may conclude that the current regime's days are numbered regardless of the outcome in Ukraine, and that they'd rather work with us toward building a post-Putin Russia that works for both sides (neutrality, free trade, etc.) than to invest in a failing enterprise and piss off a lot of important trade partners in the process.

 

[Wild Bill]

They may conclude that the current regime's days are numbered regardless of the outcome in Ukraine, and that they'd rather work with us toward building a post-Putin Russia that works for both sides (neutrality, free trade, etc.) than to invest in a failing enterprise and piss off a lot of important trade partners in the process.

A little 4D chess.

Plausible but would rely on many moving parts and being able to work with America to this end. I'm not sure the two sides trust each other enough to pull this off successfully.

 

[ozzman]

 

[Whiskeyjack]

A little 4D chess.

Plausible but would rely on many moving parts and being able to work with America to this end. I'm not sure the two sides trust each other enough to pull this off successfully.

There's that, but our economies are so integrated at this point that any sort of conflict between the two of us would be far more dangerous than a showdown with Russia. I could see them agreeing that it's in both their interests to defang Putin and put international markets aright ASAP.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Saw Tulsi Gabbard (among others) promoting this propaganda just yesterday.

 

[IrishRazor82]

You don't think there are US funded biolabs in Ukraine? Like if you had to bet right now what the truth on that will end up being, you bet "no"?

 

[ozzman]

Saw Tulsi Gabbard (among others) promoting this propaganda just yesterday.

Tucker and greenwald are hammering it, too.

 

[Redbar]

You don't think there are US funded biolabs in Ukraine? Like if you had to bet right now what the truth on that will end up being, you bet "no"?

You seem to think the absolute worst of the US, but assume Putin might not be totally FoS…

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

I’m glad when people start out their nuanced political arguments with “the right” or ”the left”. Makes it easy to tell I neednt bother giving it any more attention…

 

[IrishRazor82]

You seem to think the absolute worst of the US, but assume Putin might not be totally FoS…

I think both are true. Have you ever heard or Wuhan?

 

[irishog77]

Tucker and greenwald are hammering it, too.

Except Tulsi Gabbard and Glenn Greenwald are in no way "far right." Tough to argue that they are even right.

1 thing this thread certainly needs more of are more liberals keeping this B.S. charade up of how pro-putin and pro-russia the right definitely is. Or, we can continue on with reality.

 

[greyhammer90]

Wow, it true.

I really don't understand that play at all. China's entire economic miracle has been about getting buddy-buddy with the West and positioning themselves as the next great superpower through international cooperation and trade. Sure they are troublingly authoritarian and kill people, but it's their own citizens so other governments are largely turning a blind eye.

In middle school terms, this feels like after years of laying low they've finally gotten influential enough to not just sit at the rich kid table, but to actually supplant the reigning Chad (USA). Instead they've decided to pull a Billy Madison and pee their pants in solidarity with the unpopular kid that smells bad.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Can't wait till the US Govt goes whole hog and fully regulates Social Media so that they can tell us what we need to believe

 

[BrownerandFry]

The would be EMPEROR OF UKRAINE has no clothes

Elon Musk challenges Vladimir Putin to single combat on Twitter: 'Stakes are Ukraine'

The Tesla CEO wrote on Twitter he wants to fight Vladimir Putin in 'single combat,' saying it's for Ukraine.

www.usatoday.com

Musk is truly brilliant.

With one simple tweet he has made Vladimir Putin the world's laughingstock.

The Chinese see it.
The kleptocrats see it.
The ukrainians see it.

And Vlodomyr, the William Wallace of Ukraine is happy that Musk has a sense of humor.

Russia's empty threats about the Space Station maintenance.

Musk will do it from petty cash.